Forgive my limited knowledge of this topic, but what are the chances Merkley makes the big club this year?
I think it is near a certainty:
AHL won't be playing right away. There is more uncertainty in the AHL going forward, so they may not want him there.
His prospect stat profile is that of a player that should already be in the league. Guys like Dahlin and Hughes are coming in at 18 and 19 and taking big roles.
The Sharks are going to give him a sheltered role, and he has all the talent those guys do.
They want to develop a playstyle that fits the Sharks strengths, which is clearly Burns and Karlsson, so a third guy like that will allow the Sharks to execute the same game plan for 60 minutes.
The league is defined by offensive defensemen taking over the game right now, and no team can go 3 that deep, so if DW wants to be competitive with the guys he has that is how to do it.
The Sharks have been pretty clear that they trust him and are not worried about the outside view of him as a person, so that won't play much if any of a role in a decision.
We saw him play a preseason game over a year ago, and he was already better than all the AHL guys the Sharks marched out there this season.
His defensive struggles are severely overblown due to narrative, and by all accounts he showed significant improvement this season, and the Sharks is probably the best place for him to get better anyways.
The one thing that could hold him back is size, but again, he weighs 176, and Hughes is 170, and doing just fine.
The fact that a guy who we are talking about being #6, has a prospect profile very similar and a year older than a guy who was just the top guy on a playoff team should tell you what you need to know. Yes, every player is different, but the success rate for top talent offensive defenseman translating to the NHL is looking very high right now, to the point where it seems foolish to not give him the inside track to succeed.
