Sharks Elimination Number/Draft Pick Scenarios 2015 (UPD: Sharks 9th in lottery)

[Episkey]

Updated 3-3-15​

Sharks Perspective

-The Sharks magic number to clinch the playoffs is currently 39*. *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-The Sharks magic number to clinch a Pacific divisional (non-wildcard) playoff spot is 39*. *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-To meet the projected Western conference playoff cutoff of 94pts, the Sharks need to finish the season 11-6-0 or better.

-According to SportsClubStats, the Sharks have a 31.3% chance of making the playoffs.


To clinch a wild card spot ahead of Minnesota

-If the Wild continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 13-4-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Wild continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 17-0-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Wild go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 16-1-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.


To clinch a wild card spot ahead of Winnipeg

-If the Jets continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 13-4-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Jets continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 15-2-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Jets go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 16-1-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.


To clinch a Pacific divisional spot ahead of Calgary

-If the Flames continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 11-6-0 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.

-If the Flames continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 10-6-1 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.

-If the Flames go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 14-2-1 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.


Current Playoff Matchups

West
1P. Anaheim vs 1WC. Winnipeg
2P. Vancouver vs 3P. Calgary
1C. Nashville vs 2WC. Minnesota
2C. St. Louis vs 3C. Chicago

East
1M. NY Islanders vs 1WC. Washington
2M. NY Rangers vs 3M. Pittsburgh
1A. Montreal vs 2WC. Boston
2A. Tampa Bay vs 3A. Detroit

 

[Tkachuk4MVP]

Looks like our best chance of getting in will be to leapfrog the Flames and hold off the Kings. I don't see the Jets or Wild (unless Dubynk completely falls off a cliff) playing at a pace much worse than their respective seasons paces thus far.

 

[nabbyfan]

Looks like our best chance of getting in will be to leapfrog the Flames and hold off the Kings. I don't see the Jets or Wild (unless Dubynk completely falls off a cliff) playing at a pace much worse than their respective seasons paces thus far.

Honestly if the Sharks can sneak in and pass Calgary.... You have to kind of like the teams chances in a first round matchup v Vancouver and potential 2nd round v Anaheim or Winnipeg. Maybe this is the year we can get lucky with matchups.

 

[Boy Hedican]

Honestly if the Sharks can sneak in and pass Calgary.... You have to kind of like the teams chances in a first round matchup v Vancouver and potential 2nd round v Anaheim or Winnipeg. Maybe this is the year we can get lucky with matchups.

Good point, but we don't match up well against the other central clubs we'd have to face in the WCF. Still, getting there would be an achievement for this current team.

maybe this is the adversity the team needs....but if last years exit wasn't enough, I'm not sure what is

 

[Episkey]

Updated 3-5-15​

Sharks Perspective

-The Sharks magic number to clinch the playoffs is currently 39*. *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-The Sharks magic number to clinch a Pacific divisional (non-wildcard) playoff spot is 39*. *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-To meet the projected Western conference playoff cutoff of 95pts, the Sharks need to finish the season 11-5-1 or better.

-According to SportsClubStats, the Sharks have a 31.0% chance of making the playoffs.


To clinch a wild card spot ahead of Minnesota

-If the Wild continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 13-3-1 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Wild continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 17-0-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Wild go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 16-0-1 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.


To clinch a wild card spot ahead of Winnipeg

-If the Jets continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 12-5-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Jets continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 12-4-1 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Jets go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 15-2-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.


To clinch a Pacific divisional spot ahead of Calgary

-If the Flames continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 11-5-1 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.

-If the Flames continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 11-6-0 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.

-If the Flames go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 15-2-0 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.


Current Playoff Matchups

West
1P. Anaheim vs 2WC. Winnipeg
2P. Vancouver vs 3P. Calgary
1C. Nashville vs 1WC. Minnesota
2C. St. Louis vs 3C. Chicago

East
1M. NY Islanders vs 1WC. Washington
2M. NY Rangers vs 3M. Pittsburgh
1A. Montreal vs 2WC. Boston
2A. Tampa Bay vs 3A. Detroit

 

[Sharksrule04]

Good point, but we don't match up well against the other central clubs we'd have to face in the WCF. Still, getting there would be an achievement for this current team.

maybe this is the adversity the team needs....but if last years exit wasn't enough, I'm not sure what is

This is why I'm hesitant to root for the Sharks tanking. I think this is the first year the Pacific division is really weak and if matchups fell the right way we could definitely get to the WCF, so long as our boys aren't playing like garbage. Facing Vancouver or Calgary in the first round would be a favorable matchup and then facing the vastly overrated Ducks in the 2nd round would be solid as well. Once again the Kings scare me the most as do the top 3 in the Central.

 

[HOOCH2173]

well gee thanks a lot Bruins, Canadians and Yotes!

you had one job!

Montreal you were 1 minute and 54 seconds away.

Yotes way to make it a 3 point game.

same with you bruins!

ah fiddle sticks. what's it gonna matter anyway. Not like Sharks are gonna go 17-0 anyway.

 

[Boy Hedican]

This is why I'm hesitant to root for the Sharks tanking. I think this is the first year the Pacific division is really weak and if matchups fell the right way we could definitely get to the WCF, so long as our boys aren't playing like garbage. Facing Vancouver or Calgary in the first round would be a favorable matchup and then facing the vastly overrated Ducks in the 2nd round would be solid as well. Once again the Kings scare me the most as do the top 3 in the Central.

I'm not too sure Calgary would be a favorable matchup for us. They seem to frustrate the hell out of this team. Even with Giordano gone, still not sure we can match up well against them.

 

[Kcoyote3]

I'm not too sure Calgary would be a favorable matchup for us. They seem to frustrate the hell out of this team. Even with Giordano gone, still not sure we can match up well against them.

No Kipper no problem.

I see no way we beat LA though. I don't think it is possible at this point.

 

[hohosaregood]

Sharks control their own destinies right now

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Sharks control their own destinies right now

They actually don't.

 

[spintops]

They actually don't.

With all of the division matchups left, I think they do

 

[Juxtaposer]

I'm not too sure Calgary would be a favorable matchup for us. They seem to frustrate the hell out of this team. Even with Giordano gone, still not sure we can match up well against them.

We would murder Calgary without Giordano. It would be a bloodbath.

 

[weastern bias]

We would murder Calgary without Giordano. It would be a bloodbath.

I'm more worried about our inability to contain Jiri Hudler

 

[Grave]

I'm more worried about our inability to contain Jiri Hudler

Who never thought they'd see these words uttered


<- This guy

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

With all of the division matchups left, I think they do

We have 10 conference games left.

Canucks x 1
Preds x 1
Hawks x 1
Jets x 1
Avs x 1
Yotes x 2
Stars x 1
Oilers x 1
Kings x 1

5 of these games are with non-playoff teams: 2 x Coyotes, 1 x Oilers, 1 x Stars, 1 x Avs. So that leave 5 games with playoff contending teams. I am not undermining the importance of these games, but even if we win every one of those games, we DO NOT catch up to the teams as they have got more games in hand OR are ahead of us by two or more points OR both.

That is exactly what not controlling your own destiny means. We depend on these teams losing other games so that we can catch up to them and make the playoffs. All we can do at this time is hope that Sharks try their best and have luck on their side. A lot of luck.

 

[Boy Hedican]

We would murder Calgary without Giordano. It would be a bloodbath.

So it was him alone that made us look silly the last several meetings against them? I'm totally not downplaying his importance, but we looked terrible in the series.

 

[Episkey]

Updated 3-7-15​

Sharks Perspective

-The Sharks magic number to clinch the playoffs is currently 39*. *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-The Sharks magic number to clinch a Pacific divisional (non-wildcard) playoff spot is 39*. *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-The Sharks elimination number to be eliminated from playoff contention is 29.

-To meet the projected Western conference playoff cutoff of 96pts, the Sharks need to finish the season 12-4-0 or better.

-According to SportsClubStats, the Sharks have a 15.0% chance of making the playoffs.


To clinch a wild card spot ahead of Winnipeg

-If the Jets continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 12-3-1 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Jets continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 13-3-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Jets go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 15-0-1 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.


To clinch a Pacific divisional spot ahead of Calgary

-If the Flames continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 12-4-0 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.

-If the Flames continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 13-2-1 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.

-If the Flames go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 15-1-0 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.


Current Playoff Matchups

West
1P. Anaheim vs 2WC. Winnipeg
2P. Vancouver vs 3P. Calgary
1C. Nashville vs 1WC. Minnesota
2C. St. Louis vs 3C. Chicago

East
1M. NY Islanders vs 1WC. Washington
2M. NY Rangers vs 3M. Pittsburgh
1A. Montreal vs 2WC. Boston
2A. Tampa Bay vs 3A. Detroit

 

[Ser Jorah Mormont]

15%? Seems a bit high.

 

[rangerssharks414]

15%? Seems a bit high.

Agreed. Almost every team in front of them has a game in hand, and the Sharks are still in 10th.

 

[hohosaregood]

Agreed. Almost every team in front of them has a game in hand, and the Sharks are still in 10th.

On the bright side, we sit at the 13th overall draft pick atm with a reasonable chance for up to 5 teams to pass us by. Florida's tied with us; Ottawa, Colorado, and Philly at 69; and Dallas at 68 points. Could end up picking at 8th overall if things go poorly in the next week or so.

 

[rangerssharks414]

On the bright side, we sit at the 13th overall draft pick atm with a reasonable chance for up to 5 teams to pass us by. Florida's tied with us; Ottawa, Colorado, and Philly at 69; and Dallas at 68 points. Could end up picking at 8th overall if things go poorly in the next week or so.

I honestly don't care if the Sharks miss the playoffs at this point since I think they'll be one and done. At least invite the Kings for a round of golf as well if they're going to miss the playoffs.

 

[hohosaregood]

I honestly don't care if the Sharks miss the playoffs at this point since I think they'll be one and done. At least invite the Kings for a round of golf as well if they're going to miss the playoffs.

It's a nice year for parity to have an effect. You could have like 2-3 points less than the last team in the playoffs and potentially pick in the top 10. Also seeing as how NJ just won, Sharks could end up picking 7th overall.

Interesting in a sad and amusing sort of way.

 

[The Ice Hockey Dude]

I honestly don't care if the Sharks miss the playoffs at this point since I think they'll be one and done. At least invite the Kings for a round of golf as well if they're going to miss the playoffs.

i have to agree, wif we are not going to the post season i great to see the kings dont.

i really think that not making the playoffs will force DW to be more aggressive in changing the team.

 

[Episkey]

Updated 3-9-15​

Sharks Perspective

-The Sharks magic number to clinch the playoffs is currently 36*. *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-The Sharks magic number to clinch a Pacific divisional (non-wildcard) playoff spot is 36*. *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-The Sharks elimination number to be eliminated from playoff contention is 28.

-To meet the projected Western conference playoff cutoff of 96pts, the Sharks need to finish the season 11-4-0 or better.

-According to SportsClubStats, the Sharks have a 19.7% chance of making the playoffs.


To clinch a wild card spot ahead of Winnipeg

-If the Jets continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 11-3-1 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Jets continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 12-3-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Jets go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 14-0-1 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.


To clinch a Pacific divisional spot ahead of Calgary

-If the Flames continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 11-4-0 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.

-If the Flames continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 11-3-1 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.

-If the Flames go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 14-1-0 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.


Current Playoff Matchups

West
1P. Anaheim vs 1WC. Minnesota
2P. Vancouver vs 3P. Calgary
1C. Nashville vs 1WC. Winnipeg
2C. St. Louis vs 3C. Chicago

East
1M. NY Islanders vs 1WC. Washington
2M. NY Rangers vs 3M. Pittsburgh
1A. Montreal vs 2WC. Boston
2A. Tampa Bay vs 3A. Detroit