Rumor: Seth Jones

[newfy]

I don't know about $9 million -- with that much term, I'd want more of a team-friendly number. If you tie up too much money in one or two guys, you end up with a top-heavy disaster like the Kings or the Blackhawks.

I'll take one or two guys with high cap hits if it means they have success like the kings and hawks did, they had like 5 cups in a 6 year span between them

 

[Oddbob]

I mean coaches are not infallible beings, they're human and can make mistakes just like the rest of us. I don't think it's bad coaching more so than a coach having favorites and the player not looking out of place in their role. Jones looks the part of a #1 Dman - he skates well, has good mobility, a good shot, and has all the superlatives that describe a #1 D. The issue I have with him is that when you look at the results when he is on the ice it doesn't line up with what I see, that means I need to re-evaluate my opinion of him. When I look at EW's 2 models (GAR & xGAR), Micah's charts, and Jfresh's cards (he uses Patrick Bacon's model) and they all indicate a player that hasn't been great I tend to gravitate towards that being the truth. If you're interested there's a quick write up on RAPM model's here, with a more in-depth one here.

Perhaps Jones is playing too many minutes and it's impacting his ability to be effective, maybe there are other issues at the micro level that need to reviewed and improved upon and when corrected they'll help correct his issues at the macro level. But when you're talking about paying some big money I wouldn't want to risk it on someone that has been declining and may need a role adjustment.



It's not just one model that doesn't like him, it's 3 or 4 of the main public models. When there is that level of consensus about a player I think there should be some re-evaluation of that player. The player isn't inherently bad, but they haven't been generating positive results.

I don't understand how you can look at his declining numbers, both fancy and counting, and still suggest he is not only a #1 D, but a top 5 dman at that. He has that upside, but he hasn't played at that level since 2017-2018 which is a full 3 seasons ago. Would you be okay paying him 9-11M for 7 years? That's an enormous risk for someone that's current claim to fame is essentially being on the ice for a long time.

All these models should prove to you how off advanced stats really are, when measuring whether players are good at hockey. They don't take into account context at all and just look at raw numbers, which mean nothing in hockey. In baseball for example it means much more cause, one guy bats and the other 9 guys field the ball all of which they do individually. In hockey, the puck gets passed and shot an infinite amount of times every single shift, plus passes to many different players and the puck hits lots of stuff that changes where it goes and how all players now have to react to. Advanced stats are great for baseball and pretty much garbage for hockey. I bet lots of HOF'ers from the past would look like "garbage" according to oh so important advanced stats.

 

[Oddbob]

I don't know about $9 million -- with that much term, I'd want more of a team-friendly number. If you tie up too much money in one or two guys, you end up with a top-heavy disaster like the Kings or the Blackhawks.

$8 million for 7 years? Sure, I'd do that. If C-bus could renegotiate his contract to that first, then offer him for trade, I bet quite a few teams would offer up players and prospects with dazzling Fancy Stats.

But all of this is academic, we'd be getting Jones for 1 year, at a bargain price of $5.2 million, but our team will still be terrible because our centers consist of one good second line center, two or three OK fourth-liners, and a few AHL level guys. 1 year of Jones isn't really worth anything to us if we're not challenging for a playoff spot that year.

Re. Zach Werenski: I'd love to have him too. But we'll see if Werenski continues to put up his usual numbers without Jones as a line mate. I'm betting he won't.

Pietrangelo is older and just got 8.8 over a long term deal. Jones will get at least 8.5 over similar years but I am guessing it is 9-9.5, unless he signs in a tax free zone, like Dallas, Nashville, Tampa etc.

 

[jkutswings]

A Tiered List of Possible Seth Jones Landing Spots | The Hockey News on Sports Illustrated

As reported by Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman over the weekend, Jones, who is entering the final season of his six-year, $32.4-million contract, has informed the Blue Jackets he intends to test the UFA market in 2022 rather than re-sign with the team.

The Blue Jackets could theoretically hang onto Jones for 2021-22 and hope the on-ice results are enough to convince him to stay but, as reported by The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline, GM Jarmo Kekalainen and freshly (re)hired president John Davidson have pivoted on that stance. The expectation is that Columbus trades Jones by the draft in late July.

 

[KJoe88]

Werenski... yes.

Stay the **** away from Jones.

Like far, far away.

 

[SCD]

The timing is wrong. Significantly improving the team for next year will only land us in hockey mediocrity for the next decade. We need two more good drafts.

 

[Winger98]

It's not just one model that doesn't like him, it's 3 or 4 of the main public models. When there is that level of consensus about a player I think there should be some re-evaluation of that player. The player isn't inherently bad, but they haven't been generating positive results.

I don't understand how you can look at his declining numbers, both fancy and counting, and still suggest he is not only a #1 D, but a top 5 dman at that. He has that upside, but he hasn't played at that level since 2017-2018 which is a full 3 seasons ago. Would you be okay paying him 9-11M for 7 years? That's an enormous risk for someone that's current claim to fame is essentially being on the ice for a long time.

Eh. The past two years he was pacing for somewhere in the 40s, an area his production landed two other years. His point production falling short of that 57 point spike is really all power play points. He looks like a 45-ish point D who can eat a lot of minutes in the worst of circumstances. I think the question is if he can regain that 17/18 form when on a better team again, and I don't think that's a bad bet.

 

[Leadzedder]

Regarding Jones or Werenski I don’t think a trade for either is the way to go. We are collecting assets. The amount of assets we would need to trade for either player would deplete us. Once we’re 80-90% rebuilt you can move some assets to get a piece that solidifies things but you gotta hope you bring in a big time piece in free agency.

Also, if a player like that is available you do your best to sign them no matter the year.

 

[Frk It]

If the fancy stats don't like Jones they are wrong in this scenario.

Guy is a top 10 D-man, top 5 for me when it really matters. I would love to have him, I don't see how we are a reasonable landing spot. Yzerman's biggest mistake in Tampa was passing on Jones, maybe he makes it right and figures out a way to get him to Detroit, I would be ecstatic. Guessing Werenski might happen, Jones is kind of a pipe-dream though if he makes it to UFA that would be a moment to leverage our cap advantage in my opinion.

He did grow up hating the Wings, so that part is a little different on Jones unfortunately. Maybe Werenski is selling him on being on the same pairing in Detroit, we can dream...

Was waiting for you to comment on this so I could just say "ditto".

 

[Hen Kolland]

I don’t think that a trade for Jones is probably worth it at this point.

I don’t think we are really going to get a sweetheart deal in terms of price to acquire, and if you are really interested in parting with things to get a guy, I think I’d prefer to use those pieces to bring in a guy with some level of assured was that he wants to be here and would be a long time fixture.

If Jones is interested in playing here, let’s learn that for free in 365 days.

 

[Winger98]

I don’t think that a trade for Jones is probably worth it at this point.

I don’t think we are really going to get a sweetheart deal in terms of price to acquire, and if you are really interested in parting with things to get a guy, I think I’d prefer to use those pieces to bring in a guy with some level of assured was that he wants to be here and would be a long time fixture.

If Jones is interested in playing here, let’s learn that for free in 365 days.

No one is going to sell the farm to get an unsigned Jones. Columbus will either be giving teams permission to talk or it will be back channeled. If teams have to go in and roll the dice entirely in the dark it'll take a good bite out of what Columbus can pull back in a deal.

 

[Retire91]

I would prefer to just see what happens in free agency we need to keep rebuild assets like picks for the rebuild. Players like Jones are going to command a steep prices. Unless the deal is an outright win which I doubt it could be.

Jones is an interesting mark though seeing as he was drafted right after where Yzerman took Drouin. I think Yzerman probably pondered what ifs many times although Yzerman eventually turned Drouin into Sargachev. Yzerman is gold.

 

[Bench]

No one is going to sell the farm to get an unsigned Jones. Columbus will either be giving teams permission to talk or it will be back channeled. If teams have to go in and roll the dice entirely in the dark it'll take a good bite out of what Columbus can pull back in a deal.

Yeah, these things usually happen after they've gauged interest from the player's camp. Nobody just fires off these trade deals and hopes for the best.

Look how quickly Josh Anderson signed in Montreal. And Trouba in New York. They already had the groundwork done before the trade.

 

[golffuul]

LA Kings do have a lot of Center prospects that Columbus covets. Could see that as a big spot. Plus it would fast-track a retool/rebuild and give Doughty a couple more cracks at a Cup.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

I haven’t followed advanced stats much in the past couple years, but back when I did it seemed like tracking defencemen was significantly harder than it was forwards, particularly centers. You’d look at centers and could make sense of the numbers. You’d look at the defencemen numbers and there was a bit more head scratching going on. Maybe I just didn’t have the ability to visually tell what a good defencemen was, who knows? But last year during the playoffs if I had to make a dream top pairing it would have been Hedman-Jones.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I would prefer to just see what happens in free agency we need to keep rebuild assets like picks for the rebuild. Players like Jones are going to command a steep prices. Unless the deal is an outright win which I doubt it could be.

Jones is an interesting mark though seeing as he was drafted right after where Yzerman took Drouin. I think Yzerman probably pondered what ifs many times although Yzerman eventually turned Drouin into Sargachev. Yzerman is gold.

Yeah I am glad he has fixed it, but it is likely the biggest reason why we aren't concerned what Yzerman does with his Championship rings from Tampa. That fix needing to be later meant the guy after him got that glory in my opinion.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

LA Kings do have a lot of Center prospects that Columbus covets. Could see that as a big spot. Plus it would fast-track a retool/rebuild and give Doughty a couple more cracks at a Cup.

I think LA is likely where Buffalo wants to send Eichel for the reasons you're outlining and to keep him out of NYC. The Rangers also probably have a tough time looking at Jones, so if LA sinks their cash and assets into Eichel the Jones sweepstakes becomes a little more open. Colorado is probably the third sneaky team for these two and man alive if they figure out a way to swap out Kadri and some of their young pieces for either of these two...

However that is an interesting part about Jones hitting the market at almost every other time he would be the premium asset on the market, right now he is #2 behind Eichel.

An interesting part about the Mantha move was a few of the national guys talked about who Detroit was talking to at the time. Columbus was a name we heard, now there have been some changes. However, it is worth noting between the Savard money deal and the rumored Mantha discussions I think we have probably had pretty good talks with them at least. Did we talk Bertuzzi or Hronek with them???

Man Panarin and Bob, PLD forcing out, now it you have to wonder Jones is opting to UFA, Werenski is rumored to want out and I know we are crossing our fingers there, and you have no idea what will happen with Laine... I feel for their fans, makes you question the viability of Columbus almost. I know that is harsh, but if no star player is ever going to really see this out and I know Nash spent a long time but yeah where do you go from here... Tough spot for Jarmo and JD who I have a lot of faith in as hockey people.

 

[Frk It]

Yeah I am glad he has fixed it, but it is likely the biggest reason why we aren't concerned what Yzerman does with his Championship rings from Tampa. That fix needing to be later meant the guy after him got that glory in my opinion.

Guy got Sergachev in a trade and found a top 3 player in the league in the 2nd round. If he wanted that ring all he had to do was not leave to take over a terrible team.

 

[golffuul]

I think LA is likely where Buffalo wants to send Eichel for the reasons you're outlining and to keep him out of NYC. The Rangers also probably have a tough time looking at Jones, so if LA sinks their cash and assets into Eichel the Jones sweepstakes becomes a little more open. Colorado is probably the third sneaky team for these two and man alive if they figure out a way to swap out Kadri and some of their young pieces for either of these two...

However that is an interesting part about Jones hitting the market at almost every other time he would be the premium asset on the market, right now he is #2 behind Eichel.

An interesting part about the Mantha move was a few of the national guys talked about who Detroit was talking to at the time. Columbus was a name we heard, now there have been some changes. However, it is worth noting between the Savard money deal and the rumored Mantha discussions I think we have probably had pretty good talks with them at least. Did we talk Bertuzzi or Hronek with them???

Man Panarin and Bob, PLD forcing out, now it you have to wonder Jones is opting to UFA, Werenski is rumored to want out and I know we are crossing our fingers there, and you have no idea what will happen with Laine... I feel for their fans, makes you question the viability of Columbus almost. I know that is harsh, but if no star player is ever going to really see this out and I know Nash spent a long time but yeah where do you go from here... Tough spot for Jarmo and JD who I have a lot of faith in as hockey people.

Mickey Redmond said on one Wings broadcast that Seth Jones' fate was tied to Tortorella and that the two had a really good relationship. So when Tortorella "mutually agreed" not to return, I'm sure that was what kicked Jones into gear.

In my opinion, I'm not sold on JD other than as a Steve Jobs type of President. Great media guy, but does he actually do anything? As well, he was quick to leave Columbus for the Rangers and then quick to jump back into Columbus after the Rangers outed him. Feels a bit weird to jump ship so quick and them jump back into bed real quick. And Jarmo looks like he's an okay GM, but he clearly doesn't have an eye on when to buy/sell/trade, nor does he appear to have a good grasp on his personnel. So he might be a good deal-maker (when he decides he will), but in terms of asset management, the long-term future of his organization looks horrible and I think he should shoulder most of the blame for not keeping a more competitive team going, when he could have traded off Panarin/Bob/Etc. While Tortorella looks like he lost the room this year, his record has been pretty good considering the hand he was dealt year in and year out. Including winning a Jack Adams in the past couple of years. So he's either a good coach in a bad situation or a good coach that has simply run his course. In this case, I think both are true.

I think LA doesn't need Eichel. They have so many center prospects and not enough defensemen. And Jones fits the bill pretty well, there. I honestly have no clue where Eichel goes. I don't see a lot of fits anywhere.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Guy got Sergachev in a trade and found a top 3 player in the league in the 2nd round. If he wanted that ring all he had to do was not leave to take over a terrible team.

He finds the draft guy anyway, no? I like Sergachev, not more than Jones and Jones-Hedman would be an absolute nightmare to play for 28 minutes a game, goodnight game over thanks for playing a few years earlier in my opinion. Jones allows them to win earlier for me, now they would likely be in their second run of players around a core with that like Chicago had to do, but I just firmly believe they are better off quicker and over the long-term. Heck he was the biggest factor in knocking them out one of the years too... Is what it is, I guess you cannot prove it, but I have to think Drouin over Jones is one of if not the decision Yzerman would likely target in his breakdown of the oops...

By the way I looked at the Seider pick in a way as maybe one of those hey maybe he considered the past moment here. We will see. I know Drouin had his fans, but I thought it was a reach at the time and it proved costly in my opinion.

 

[MBH]

LA Kings do have a lot of Center prospects that Columbus covets. Could see that as a big spot. Plus it would fast-track a retool/rebuild and give Doughty a couple more cracks at a Cup.

LA Kings could quickly find themselves in cap hill.

 

[MBH]

There's some massive overrating of Jones in this thread.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Mickey Redmond said on one Wings broadcast that Seth Jones' fate was tied to Tortorella and that the two had a really good relationship. So when Tortorella "mutually agreed" not to return, I'm sure that was what kicked Jones into gear.

In my opinion, I'm not sold on JD other than as a Steve Jobs type of President. Great media guy, but does he actually do anything? As well, he was quick to leave Columbus for the Rangers and then quick to jump back into Columbus after the Rangers outed him. Feels a bit weird to jump ship so quick and them jump back into bed real quick. And Jarmo looks like he's an okay GM, but he clearly doesn't have an eye on when to buy/sell/trade, nor does he appear to have a good grasp on his personnel. So he might be a good deal-maker (when he decides he will), but in terms of asset management, the long-term future of his organization looks horrible and I think he should shoulder most of the blame for not keeping a more competitive team going, when he could have traded off Panarin/Bob/Etc. While Tortorella looks like he lost the room this year, his record has been pretty good considering the hand he was dealt year in and year out. Including winning a Jack Adams in the past couple of years. So he's either a good coach in a bad situation or a good coach that has simply run his course. In this case, I think both are true.

I think LA doesn't need Eichel. They have so many center prospects and not enough defensemen. And Jones fits the bill pretty well, there. I honestly have no clue where Eichel goes. I don't see a lot of fits anywhere.

I thought Columbus went in on this precisely because of what is happening now and to buy time with their fan-base. They had a top 5 player, a 2 time Vezina winner and Team USA's Olympic (hopefully Gold Medal Winning in 2022 or at least 2026) top pairing. They had a guy that was just used in a leverage checking role in PLD and went and got Duchene which turns out we know is not really good for your team actually winning but yeah. Savard wasn't a terrible 3rd D-man either and has immediately dropped into Tampa's top 4.

Columbus wasn't lacking on talent, they needed more scoring and Jarmo went in hard. That it didn't work is a shame, that they are all leaving hurts. But that fan-base was going to quit on the team before the latest run, now they at least seem with the organization even though these unfortunate outcomes are playing out. That was important and actually is a part of the GM's job especially if it was broken down by management.

JD's connection with the Rangers goes way back and while it was surprising to see Columbus so quickly take him back given that, I think there was an understanding on both sides that was the only job he was leaving for. It was kind of illuminating that he had to have turned down both ESPN and TNT given his standing on the tv side of things too for probably not small money. So I do really hope it works out for them.

They are going to sell Jones and Werenski, probably Laine too. But fans in Columbus can't say, hey we never go for it. They understand those moves better now in my opinion and in that market that was an important message.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

There's some massive overrating of Jones in this thread.

Yeah if only his points per 60 would go up... All of Columbus had a bad year and this argument seems to grounded in analytics versus you know the player we watch controlling the proceedings of games far too often when you do watch Columbus.

You know what I remember Seth Jones doing, kind of right after he got robbed out of a Norris not long ago. Eliminating the best team in hockey while being the best player on the ice. Sure Hedman went down, but Jones absolutely vexed the Lightning.

I know people think there are a lot of guys that can do that, but you're looking at what 20 maybe in the league some on the same teams. You're damn right I line up for and hold that kind of star player in very high regard and become super interested if they somehow become available.

 

[Frk It]

He finds the draft guy anyway, no? I like Sergachev, not more than Jones and Jones-Hedman would be an absolute nightmare to play for 28 minutes a game, goodnight game over thanks for playing a few years earlier in my opinion. Jones allows them to win earlier for me, now they would likely be in their second run of players around a core with that like Chicago had to do, but I just firmly believe they are better off quicker and over the long-term. Heck he was the biggest factor in knocking them out one of the years too... Is what it is, I guess you cannot prove it, but I have to think Drouin over Jones is one of if not the decision Yzerman would likely target in his breakdown of the oops...

By the way I looked at the Seider pick in a way as maybe one of those hey maybe he considered the past moment here. We will see. I know Drouin had his fans, but I thought it was a reach at the time and it proved costly in my opinion.

I get where you are coming from, I just think it’s funny to say it cost him getting a ring, when in my opinion, he cost himself getting a ring by just leaving.

I would hope he learned from that and think he would consider it a mistake. I think he would love to have Owen Power along with Seider for a lot of these reasons.