You're assuming it wouldn't be a sign and trade scenario. There have been players that get traded at the draft for high picks before and get signed shortly after, it happens all the time and no one should look at it as a rental because you're getting him for an entire season, not at the deadline
Friedman: Could the Leafs target Seth Jones?
- Thread starter HockeyVirus
- Start date
In his defense, he probably doesn't believe that the top 15 picks are better than marner, but he considers cost control into their value, which is why I said it depends on the team
Beukeboom Fan
Registered User
He can get traded to Chicago, knowing that he's getting moved at the trade deadline and then he can sign anyplace he wants as a UFA. No one (AFAIK) is proposing that the deal would be contingent on him signing a long-term extension.
CDN24
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- Jun 17, 2009
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The problem with any Marner trade is going to be his current cap hit and is salary expectations on an extension. Contending teams don't have that kind of cap space to spend on a winger with a less than stellar playoff history. Rebuilding teams with a top 10 pick are probably better served just using the pick as whomever they get in the top 10 this year will be a decent player that better fits their window.
Leafs are either going to have to take a similar contract back or if they are looking for futures it won't be a top 10 pick. It will be later pick and prospect type deals. The biggest challenge is Marners salary ask, no one will give up a lot without an extension in place and unless Marner is willing to take under 10M, don't expect to be blown away by the offers. Throw in limited teams he may waive for and leafs will not get fair value.
Of the teams with top 10 picks
SJ/Hawks/ducks/BJ/Calgary all probably in the asset accumulation phase of rebuild - not going to trade the pick.
Mtl may be trying to exit and Gorton has a history of acquiring players to accelerate a rebuild (panarin with NYR) but they will not blow a premium asset on Marner at >10M). likely to make their move next yr via free agency or if its trade it ssomeone younger not that close to UFA.
Seattle might but are probably better served on UFA market. They need more young guys than wright and berniers
Ottawa is capped out - unless Leafs want an injury prone Norris as part of the return?
Jersey might have interest but someone like Timo meier has to go back to make cap work
Utah is probably the best bet, they have a ton of picks and may want to make a splash- maybe Marner is that splash.
Something like Jets did with PLD is possible with more of a contending team but will be difficult unless Marner is willing to extend around 10M. Even then not sure he is worth 10M. Teams with young guys needing new contracts do now want to bring in an overpaid Marner that resets their internal salary structure like tavares did for Leafs.
He is tradable but don't expect to be wowed by the return, the best return may be freeing up cap space. On a player for palyer deal Leafs really need a right D back. Jones fits that bill.
Leafs are either going to have to take a similar contract back or if they are looking for futures it won't be a top 10 pick. It will be later pick and prospect type deals. The biggest challenge is Marners salary ask, no one will give up a lot without an extension in place and unless Marner is willing to take under 10M, don't expect to be blown away by the offers. Throw in limited teams he may waive for and leafs will not get fair value.
Of the teams with top 10 picks
SJ/Hawks/ducks/BJ/Calgary all probably in the asset accumulation phase of rebuild - not going to trade the pick.
Mtl may be trying to exit and Gorton has a history of acquiring players to accelerate a rebuild (panarin with NYR) but they will not blow a premium asset on Marner at >10M). likely to make their move next yr via free agency or if its trade it ssomeone younger not that close to UFA.
Seattle might but are probably better served on UFA market. They need more young guys than wright and berniers
Ottawa is capped out - unless Leafs want an injury prone Norris as part of the return?
Jersey might have interest but someone like Timo meier has to go back to make cap work
Utah is probably the best bet, they have a ton of picks and may want to make a splash- maybe Marner is that splash.
Something like Jets did with PLD is possible with more of a contending team but will be difficult unless Marner is willing to extend around 10M. Even then not sure he is worth 10M. Teams with young guys needing new contracts do now want to bring in an overpaid Marner that resets their internal salary structure like tavares did for Leafs.
He is tradable but don't expect to be wowed by the return, the best return may be freeing up cap space. On a player for palyer deal Leafs really need a right D back. Jones fits that bill.
Ledge And Dairy
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CDN24
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Getting any kind of a return will be contingent on him signing an extension. Otherwise at best leafs will get rental prices. why would Hawks giver anything to get him knowing they have to move him at deadline. They risk doing is having him play well enough to hurt next years draft position, get hurt and then not get anything at deadline. no one will give you anything significant without extension in place. look at it from the acquiring teams perspective.
Edit or reasonable assurance from marners camp that he will extend. Leafs will have to allow acquiring team to speak with player agent before.
Ledge And Dairy
Registered User
Sure but if I'm Chicago the reason I bring in Marner is because I want him to play with Bedard so I want an extension
I mean you asked for an example you didn't specify a year
It's 11M for a guy you don't have after this upcoming season. What rebuilding, top of the draft team wants to do that?
Return would be really bad for the Leafs with this in mind. Realistically Chicago is getting a late first and B prospect for him at the deadline, maybe a young roster player as well? While using a retaining slot. And they take on the risk of him being hurt or playing badly which tanks his value.
Leafs wouldn't get much more than a 2nd for Marner from Chicago if this was the plan
Oof. Painful post. Not much thought put in here, just lots of anger and frustration. I don't think there are 15 players better than Marner, although it's possible. 2003 had 15 players better than Marner.
Huberdeau is a pretty good hockey player. Should a team trade a late 1st for him this summer? After all, they probably aren't getting as good a player at pick 25.
Do you see how contract status effects player value? Marner makes 11M and is signed for one more season. This is why I don't think he'll be traded despite fans clamoring. Most fans are like you and don't think things through. Contenders don't have 11M in cap space and rebuilding teams don't trade a 1st for one season of Mitch.
Ledge And Dairy
Registered User
True but the other user also stated it happens all the time, once 13 years ago doesn't exactly qualify as "all the time."
Kaners PPGs
Registered User
This needs to be a 3-team trade with Marner headed to somewhere he’ll waive to and Chicago getting something relatively small unless you are talking major retention.
Doug Prishpreed
Registered User
It truly is one of the worst I've ever seen, and I'm not even a Chicago fan.
Not every team in the bottom half is rebuilding. That's why I mentioned Seattle, they still want to compete next year and they have the cap space. Not saying they will, but that's an example of a team that's in a situation where they potentially would
Doug Prishpreed
Registered User
Yeah, but you get to keep that drafted player for like a decade -- and cost controlled -- as opposed to one year of an overpriced Marner. A true clown is someone who doesn't understand that part of it.
That was off the top of my head. Vesa toskala in 2007, cory Schneider in 2013, point being, it happens
Bruce Granville
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- Oct 11, 2014
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You think Seattle wants Marner with one year left? They finished below my Flames in the standings. I can't imagine they are looking to trade a top 10 pick for a guy with this upcoming year left on his contract. Look at the Guentzel return for a comparable trade if you eat 30% of the cap hit.
Ledge And Dairy
Registered User
Schneider had 2 full years of term left. Mark Bell was included in the Toskala trade. These are also again from over 2 CBA updates ago
Lets make this straightforward for you. Marner is not going to be moved prior to July 2nd as he is not allowed to talk to other teams before then and he is owed a huge signing bonus on July 1st. By then the draft will already be done. Even then he still considered a 1 year rental in terms of trade value as you cannot market him as anything more than that.
Guentzel was a deadline trade, no way the leafs would retain in the summer. And like I said before, you're assuming that the trade wouldn't be contingent on the other team being allowed to talk with the marner camp first. Whatever team acquired him would have an entire year to sign him to an extension
He's not allowed to talk to any other teams until next year... As far as your other points, you're probably right that no one wants to pay him his entire salary up front in the summer so that is a factor. Still doesn't mean other teams value a mid first round pick more than him
It's a different conversation if he's extended for sure. I'd be so wary of being the team that extends him though. Huberdeau, Gaudreau, Meier ect serve as signposts for wingers in their late 20s signing big money long term deals.
Ledge And Dairy
Registered User
By league rules he cannot discuss contracts with any other teams besides his own until July 1st. After July 1st he can only talk to other teams if he is given permission by his own team.
I think a team like Seattle would definitely value that 1st this year over 1 year of Marner. They have 9+ years of control over the prospect they draft with that pick vs 1 year of control over Marner
I am not saying you should compare a Marner trade to a rental acquisition like Guentzel. For example Seth Jones was traded as a "1 year rental" but due to the weird timing of the draft that summer Chicago was allowed to negotiate with him prior to the draft.
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