Line Combos: Serious Debate: The Power Play

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I figured since this has been a frequent sore point and problem that has, in part, led to some of the playoff failure with the Canes, we may want to have a dedicated thread for it.

In 19-20 through 20-22, Carolina had the 4th best PP % in the NHL at 23.8% in the regular season.
In 21-22, the Canes started off well and were at 23.7% (8th best in the NHL)

Since then, the Canes PP has average 19.7%, good for 22nd in the NHL.

In the playoffs for all of RBA's seasons, it's been an abysmal 14.2%. Only AZ (9 games) and PHI (16 games) had a worse PP% than Carolina.

Can the Canes win it all without an improved PP? What needs to happen to get the Canes PP to a level that will allow them to succeed in the ultimate goal?

Over this playoff stretch (2018/19 through 22/23) the cup champs have averaged this in the playoffs:
TB: 24.3% (27.3% in the two years they won it)
Colorado: 25% (32.8% in the year they won it)
STL: 20.6% (16.3% in the year they won it)
VGN: 19.0% (21.9% in the year they won it)

DISCUSS!

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[Finlandia WOAT]

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I think TDA and Burns look unreal together and Burns looks like he’s relishing the opportunity to buzz around the ice on the powerplay basically as a winger. The first powerplay of the night last night showed what it could be this year if they start clicking.

The whole game yesterday was such a weird one with so many artificial starts and stops in momentum that it seems like a bad game to take too much away from. In the other thread we’re sitting there talking about LA’s PP being good… and we flat out scored 2 shorties on them. Just a dumb game all around.

While I’m not going to overreact, I think it’s fair to say Orlov has not had a great first two games as a Cane, which is relevant to PP2.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

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I get that a "hot goalie" is a part of it. That said, in the last 1.5 seasons of regular season (~120 games) and through 63 playoff games since 2018/19 the Canes pp has been below average - downright bad. Hard to attribute all of that to hot goalies. Too large of a sample size.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'll copy what I said in the GDT for reference. This isn't based on 2 games this season, but what I've noticed generally last season as well as these 2 games:

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I can't say what other teams do, particularly ones that don't have elite talent as I don't watch them enough, but there are a few things that I see the Canes struggle with. I don't have a solution, but here's my $0.02 on what I see:

HIGH LEVEL: It seems like we do a bunch of things average or below average on the PP other than puck pursuit. With a team's ability to just ice the puck on the PK, and not using our best puck pursuers on the PP, it really neutralizes our strength. (to be clear, I'm not advocating for using Staal, Fast or Martinook on the PP).

1) Aho isn't good enough at face-offs. Seems like every PP starts with 15-20s wasted while we go gather the puck in our zone and try to gain entry.

EDIT: recency bias and not valid based on % listed below.

2) Our entries suck. Mike and Tripp call Necas the "one man entry", but other teams just collapse on him and force a turn-over often. Our best entry is to dump it deep and try to outwork the other team for the puck. Our best players for outworking the opponents (Staal, Fast, Martinook, etc..) aren't PP guys and as I said above, the ability to ice the puck by the PK team really neutralizes that.

3) We don't have anyone that scares another team to cause them to back off so they press us more than other top teams leaving us little time and space. Theoretically, we should be able to take advantage of an aggressive pursuit from a PK team, but we haven't figured that out. We don't have that 1 timer/shot like Ovechkin, Stamkos, Matthews or even Draisaitl have that demand respect. We don't have an elite puck skill guy that teams back off from like a Marner, Nylander, MacKinnon, McDavid, etc... Even our PP QB isn't ideal. Tony is much better at passing/moving the puck, but isn't a shooting threat. Burns is a shooting threat, but he bobbles the puck too much and isn't a smooth passer.

4) As you said, we seem to be too stationary and so we are left with hoping to get a shot from the point and again, outworking the other team for a screen/rebound. Those are lower percentage chances. Would be interesting to see if this is just my own bias, or if the data from last year shows that we take more long range shots vs. other top PP teams.

No idea how to change it up and fix it, but those are things I see that hinder the PP.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I need to see what the PP looks like with Svech before I get too worked about it this year.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I get that a "hot goalie" is a part of it. That said, in the last 1.5 seasons of regular season (~120 games) and through 63 playoff games since 2018/19 the Canes pp has been below average - downright bad. Hard to attribute all of that to hot goalies. Too large of a sample size.

Sure, I just want to point out that, unlike previous years, the 2023 playoff exit was mostly due to running into a hot goalie. Sucks. It happens.

Anyway, on topic, it seems to me the Canes setup is very risk averse. They like to pass it around the umbrella until the other team is tired out, then do a point shot. No cross seam passes, only Aho (sometimes) will carry the puck into the box. Part of that is probably the lack of a true shooting option, who would force other teams the hinge their box around + be a easy option if they're not seeing any looks. Part of it seems coaching. Don't try anything risky that will turn it over and lose possession. Prioritizing zone time possession over the risky play. Makes sense in the long run, I guess.

It's just frustrating, I still remember Bergeron/Marchand/Pastrnak doing fun crazy high chemistry passes that eviserated the Canes vaunted PP. You'd think by now Aho/Teravainen/Necas would have some similar chemistry, but no. Teravainen and Aho's lack of dipsy doodle on the PP despite their chemistry 5v5 is why I suspect coaching for their risk aversion.

That said, I'm not at all confident doing more risky plays would actually solve the problem, in lieu of getting prettier goals and less zone time via more turnovers.

 

[The Faulker 27]

I think TDA and Burns look unreal together and Burns looks like he’s relishing the opportunity to buzz around the ice on the powerplay basically as a winger. The first powerplay of the night last night showed what it could be this year if they start clicking.

The whole game yesterday was such a weird one with so many artificial starts and stops in momentum that it seems like a bad game to take too much away from. In the other thread we’re sitting there talking about LA’s PP being good… and we flat out scored 2 shorties on them. Just a dumb game all around.

While I’m not going to overreact, I think it’s fair to say Orlov has not had a great first two games as a Cane, which is relevant to PP2.

That one hit though.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Aho is fine on faceoffs, over 51% each of the past 3 years

 

[The Faulker 27]

Aho is fine on faceoffs, over 51% each of the past 3 years

I was surprised to see his PP FO% over the past 3 seasons was even better.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Recency bias on the Aho FO stuff on my part. So I retract that given the data.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Recency bias on the Aho FO stuff on my part. So I retract that given the data.

He’s not spectacular or anything and obviously a guy like Bergeron winning it cleanly on every PP face off is ideal but yeah I don’t really see that as being part of the PP issues.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Watching other teams’ power plays, they all go through stretches where they suck at entries or things aren’t crisp and there isn’t a lot of movement. A lot them stay to the outside even if they are cycling.

The things we don’t have that would change the dynamic of our PP:

1. A one time threat. Rangers, Washington etc have one
2. Someone that can break a team down. Pens have 3, Oilers have a couple, Toronto has 3, etc etc.
3. Someone who is really good at getting goals in tight. Noesen is kinda one but he isn’t the level of some.

Burns is a heavy shooter that some fear trying to block but he isn’t a one timing threat from near the circles with accuracy.
Aho and Necas have skill with speed but they don’t have the mass and/or edge work to break teams down in the zone.
Bunting is the greasy goal / in tight guy but we aren’t using him like that. Partly because we don’t have guys who break down the other team to allow him just to stay in front of the net.
Tony D is a puck mover. His shot isn’t much of a threat. Defense can focus their sticks on the passing lanes.

Until we can find someone one of the categories, we are just going to have to get bounces, find a way to make better entries and make crisp passes.

 

[Joe McGrath]

3 goals in 3 games. Problem solved.

 

[bleedgreen]

We’re just overthinking and holding the puck too long at times or panicking when we normally would not in the past. I think the newcomers and maybe new formations has the chemistry off to start. We just aren’t snapping it around the way we normally do when we’re more confident. Teams smell the fear right now and aren’t giving us any time to set up as well. Having two D is neat and curiously novel in todays game but I think that’s also an adjustment for them. If it doesn’t figure itself out that’s the first thing I’d switch. I know we have three pp guys but just make a decision and pick one for each unit….if it doesn’t start to work.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I get that a "hot goalie" is a part of it. That said, in the last 1.5 seasons of regular season (~120 games) and through 63 playoff games since 2018/19 the Canes pp has been below average - downright bad. Hard to attribute all of that to hot goalies. Too large of a sample size.

If there were an award for the team that face the most "hot goalies", it'd be the Canes annually AINEC...either that or "hot goalie" just means we're just lobbing low-danger shit at goalies hoping it sneaks through, getting the goalie into a good rhythm, and scoring at whopping 5% against AHL goalies as a result. Yes there are occasions we truly run into a hot goalie, but at least 50% of the time it's just us shooting ourselves in the foot constantly and then wondering where our toes went. When you're a top 5 team in the league and it happens occasionally, it's a hot goalie, when you're a top 5 team in the league and bottom 5 in shooting % (and dead last for at least 25% of the season)...it's probably the shooting and not a "hot goalie"

But yea, as for the PP, 90% of the failures are because we just perimeter play it with no screen, or we try to pass/shoot it through 4 players standing right in front of us, don't move the puck quickly, and we TELEGRAPH every f***ing pass/shot we make. I mean, I've never played hockey and 85% of the time I know exactly what we're about to do before we do it, because it's so painfully obvious. Honestly if 2 guys just passed it back and forth 10 times in quick succession before one of them shot it it'd be more effective than what we generally do...at least they'd have to GUESS which guy was going for the shot, and maybe cause enough distraction to sneak someone elsewhere for a secret pass or rebound or something.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I don't know how to fix the PP, but I'm curious if it'd be statistically better for the team to simply take another penalty immediately after drawing one so it'd be 4-on-4.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

I don't know how to fix the PP, but I'm curious if it'd be statistically better for the team to simply take another penalty immediately after drawing one so it'd be 4-on-4.

Based off the extremely small sample size of getting pantsed last night at 4-on-4 I'm going to go with "How about no Scott"

 

[Joe McGrath]

NHL Stats

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More PP goals than anyone else.

 

[CandyCanes]

So removing Aho off the PP did the trick

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

So last night the PP was 1 for 5, really 2 for 5 as KK scored less than 1s after the penalty expired so it was still 5-4 on the ice. Canes PP is 26.7% right now.

What I've seen as positives:

1) Necas has been much better at zone entries. He isn't trying to skate through 4 guys, but uses his speed to get it into the zone and then makes a quick pass to an open guy that allows the Canes to set up.

2) The Canes aren't holding onto the puck as long, or if they do, they are moving with the puck. Their decision making on passes is much quicker which has helped negate some of the pressure.

3) They are creating more net front presence as well as getting shots in areas for better scoring chances (KK and Jarvis especially).

4) The "design" of the PP doesn't seem to be "get a point shot and hope to get a deflection or rebound". They are still using that, but they are working it better down low for a better quality shot.

5) Noesen is much better in the role behind the net than I expected and he's better there than in front of the net IMO.

6) Burns, IMO is much better utilized over on the 1/2 wall/down lower than he is at the blue line as a PP QB.

Things I've seen as negatives:
1) Giving up too many SHG. These are just killers both for momentum and for when they occur. Hard enough to contain a good team's PP, so we can't give up a shorty as well.

2) We still struggle when teams press our guys as we don't have the "we need to respect him an back off" guy. Whether that be a 1 timer, a great shot from that sharp angle like Draisaitl has, or a wizard with the puck that if you press to much, will make you pay. At least early on, the team seems to be adapting to that better by moving the puck more quickly.

3) I like Necas in space and when he gets the pass off quickly, but he still loses too many board battles. On the flip side, Jarvis is much better at board battles so far this year.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Oh no we suck again?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I'm of the opinion that you can't have a good PP if you're giving up as many shorthanded goals/chances as we have thus far.

Last year, we only gave up 6 SHGs the entire year. The year before that, only 3. We've given up 3 already this year.

That's simply unacceptable.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I'm of the opinion that you can't have a good PP if you're giving up as many shorthanded goals/chances as we have thus far.

Last year, we only gave up 6 SHGs the entire year. The year before that, only 3. We've given up 3 already this year.

That's simply unacceptable.

This is 100% true. Looking a little deeper, they’ve given up 3 high danger chances while on the power play which is still too many. But you’d like to get A save once in a while.

 

[HisIceness]

So the PP is actually kind of not bad?

Oh but the PK sucks? Fire Gleason. Also quit taking so many f***ing penalties.