Sergei Zubov

[MadLuke]

Is John Carlson a HHOFer?

2 cup (a major contributor on those teams) and I can easily see him get in yes. The also has a cup here, remove a bit one cup to Zubov (like vs Gonchar), amd I not sure if HHOF care about Olympic Gold medal for soviet player so could be fair to discount it.

93-06 Zubov was third in points among defenceman, 7th in +/-, second to Lidstrom in the playoff points.

2011-2022 Carlson, also second in playoff points, third in regular season points, 20th in +/-, seem a good comparable.

 

[Felidae]

Zubov is obviously better than Skinner but that wasn't what I was trying to say.

Just like how that Skinner thread was a 100% 'NO!' if you had posted here in 2005 - when Zubov was 35 years old and his career was mostly complete - that a guy who was a 0x AS, 0x Norris finalist and had 1x in his career higher than 8th in Norris voting (and that time was obviously a voting blunder, at that) who was barely ahead of Gary Galley in career points (27th all-time) should be in the HHOF?

Also 100% no.

Then he had one really good season and somehow his perception did a complete 180 and he was a 'likely HHOFer'.




Well, yeah.

But actually PP minutes aren’t ‘real’ defensive minutes in the modern era. Like, basically the entire NHL now uses a forward playing D on the PP all the time. You have MA Bergerons who are #6Ds who play more PP minutes than the other 5 guys on their team combined. It’s a specialized thing and it doesn’t really have anything to do with your regular run through a defensive rotation.

ES + PK minutes are your regular defensive pairing rotations. Combine those and you’ll get a pretty good read on how a coach ranks his D and what the hierarchy for that team is. And your obvious 1D types will still virtually always lead the team in that metric, too.

If you just use raw TOI to rank the defenders on a team you’ll consistently be overrating Tyson Barries and underrating Chris Tanevs in terms of where they fit on that team and how they’re used by the coaching staff.




… and that’s pretty close to what I expected.

A guy who was virtually never considered a top-5 defender in the league and was probably generally thought to be in the 8-12 range.

And when it comes to making the HHOF … that makes him a fairly considerable outlier.

His Norris voting profile before that 05-06 season was basically identical to Kevin Lowe, who almost everyone thinks was a godawful induction.

I do understand what you were trying to say. My point was that Zubov's case for the HHOF even before his Norris finalist season, would still be received much better than a Skinner HHOF thread, because he was simply on another level as a player.

You said it would only be received marginally better, which sort of implies that they are on a similar level.

Anyways, I agree with your point in general though. Zubov is definitely on the lower end of HHOF inductions.

 

[MS]

2 cup (a major contributor on those teams) and I can easily see him get in yes. The also has a cup here, remove a bit one cup to Zubov (like vs Gonchar), amd I not sure if HHOF care about Olympic Gold medal for soviet player so could be fair to discount it.

93-06 Zubov was third in points among defenceman, 7th in +/-, second to Lidstrom in the playoff points.

2011-2022 Carlson, also second in playoff points, third in regular season points, 20th in +/-, seem a good comparable.

They're nearly identical. I don't think the 2 Cups vs. 1 thing is a big difference when you factor in that Carlson has an extra 1st Team AS selection that Zubov doesn't.

If you think Carlson is fringe or needs more to get in if he retired at the end of this season ... to me you're also saying that Zubov is about as fringe as it gets.

I do understand what you were trying to say. My point was that Zubov's case for the HHOF even before his Norris finalist season, would still be received much better than a Skinner HHOF thread, because he was simply on another level as a player.

You said it would only be received marginally better, which sort of implies that they are on a similar level.

Anyways, I agree with your point in general though. Zubov is definitely on the lower end of HHOF inductions.

Zubov is obviously a much better player but what I was saying is that 99% 'no f'ing way' is only marginally better than 100% 'no f'ng way' in terms of how something is perceived.

Skinner is also a much better player than, like, Dean McAmmond or something but their HHOF cases wouldn't be perceived much differently because zero is zero.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I haven't checked on this...but I wonder if Carlson has it easier from a voting perspective. Zubov was going against offensive d-men, two-way d-men, defensive d-men, and physical d-men.

Carlson was really only going against offensive d-men and two-way d-men. And Carlson played for much more offensive-minded coaches over his career...Zubov, the opposite, mostly.

Carlson was worse defensively than Zubov for my money, by a considerable amount too.

 

[MS]

I haven't checked on this...but I wonder if Carlson has it easier from a voting perspective. Zubov was going against offensive d-men, two-way d-men, defensive d-men, and physical d-men.

Carlson was really only going against offensive d-men and two-way d-men. And Carlson played for much more offensive-minded coaches over his career...Zubov, the opposite, mostly.

Carlson was worse defensively than Zubov for my money, by a considerable amount too.

This feels like splitting hairs.

Carlson was part of that crazy 2008 draft year which has 5 future HHOFers in it (Hedman, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Karlsson, Josi). He had plenty of competition for award votes.

Zubov's defensive game is hard to rate it evolved so much over his career.

Regardless, these two players have to be considered as *VERY* similar and if your reaction to Carlson in the HHOF is nope! but think that Zubov is a comfortable/solid selection ... you might have some biases in play.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I think that the concept unleashed on this thread is based on splitting hairs, so I'm more likely to make sure my hair is parted the way I want it to be haha

The level of binary that we're dealing with here (not you, MS) could be such that a single Hockey News writer naming Zubov as the 5th best d-man or 6th best d-man is the difference between "elite" and "not elite".

So if Zubov not only has to deal with offensive and two-way folks, but also claw over NJ Stevens, D.Hatcher, Foote, etc. Well that's maybe the difference between 8th and 5th in voting.

Carlson, I theorize relatively blindly that, didn't have to overcome many of those d-men styles. Thus, he was further rewarded for largely being a one-way d-man with more open coaches like Boudreau...

It's not necessarily a theory I love. But if we're worried about 8th place finishes vs 6th place finishes, then I'm going to throw it on the fire...

 

[Boxscore]

This MacKinnon comparison is a bit bizarre. There's a big difference between 'hasn't won many trophies' and 'not even close to winning trophies'.

Once this season's voting is complete, Nathan MacKinnon will have been top-6 in Hart voting 6 times in the last 7 years. He'll have been a Hart finalist 4 times in those 7 years. He's clearly been an absolutely dominant player who was one of the top couple players in the NHL for an extended period and has been recognized as such by award voters ... even if he hasn't actually finished 1st in Hart voting or beat out McDavid for an Art Ross.

This is absolutely nothing like Sergei Zubov who had one season in his entire career which was recognized as elite. Like, if you take the The Hockey News Top 50 Player rankings for the length of his career I highly doubt he pops up in the top 5 defenders in the league once until 2006 when he's 36 years old. And I'm guessing there aren't many seasons where he'd have been in the top 10 either. *

Derian Hatcher was the #1D in terms of TOI on those Stars teams (especially considering 'real' defensive TOI at ES/SH) and Hatcher and Zubov's ES production was nearly identical from 1997-2003.

Prior to that 05-06 season a 'Zubov HHOF?' thread here would have been received only marginally better than the one here recently for Jeff Skinner. Then he has one huge season and people acted like he had been this Norris-level D for the previous decade+ ... and he simply wasn't.

* If someone has a THN archive subscription I'd be incredibly curious what Zubov's actual ratings on that list were year over year.

I get what you're saying.

 

[sr edler]

I'll say it again, people shouldn't treat Norris voting as if it's some type of church gospel. Splitting hairs between a 6th place vote here or a 4th place vote there, or a 8th place vote somewhere, is ridiculous. Elliotte Friedman and the like seem like nice enough guys (?), but I still wouldn't want to let these fellows run my brain.

I also reject that Zubov was the type of D the PHWA had a hard-on for, if we're looking at his overall career and not just focus on a single sophomore season. He was more of a Tomas Kaberle type of D style wise (quiet, subtle) and Kaberle at his best in Toronto got beat in Norris voting by his own teammate Bryan McCabe which is ridiculous.

 

[Sentinel]

I think that the concept unleashed on this thread is based on splitting hairs, so I'm more likely to make sure my hair is parted the way I want it to be haha

The level of binary that we're dealing with here (not you, MS) could be such that a single Hockey News writer naming Zubov as the 5th best d-man or 6th best d-man is the difference between "elite" and "not elite".

So if Zubov not only has to deal with offensive and two-way folks, but also claw over NJ Stevens, D.Hatcher, Foote, etc. Well that's maybe the difference between 8th and 5th in voting.

Carlson, I theorize relatively blindly that, didn't have to overcome many of those d-men styles. Thus, he was further rewarded for largely being a one-way d-man with more open coaches like Boudreau...

It's not necessarily a theory I love. But if we're worried about 8th place finishes vs 6th place finishes, then I'm going to throw it on the fire...

Cut out the patronizing tone and I may consider what you have to say.

But you keep skating around a very simple fact: nobody in the league considered Zubov to be a Top 5 defenseman until he was 36. Not only he didn't win any awards -- he was never even close. So when people bitch about Housley, they forget that his record was miles better than Zubov's... and Zubov was not that great at his own end either.

 

[Michael Farkas]

But you keep skating around a very simple fact: nobody in the league considered Zubov to be a Top 5 defenseman

You plant corn, you grow corn. Weaponizing partial Norris Trophy voting records to such a high degree is worthy of derision.

1994: At least 42 voters (who you love) considered him top 3, perhaps as many as 53 voters.
1996: 10 voters considered top 3, as many as 13 considered him top 5.
1998: 17 to 27 voters considered top 3/5
etc. etc.

Craig Patrick called him the "premier offensive defenseman [in the league]...I wouldn't be surprised if Zubov gets 100 points..."

No one "forgets [about] the record" because almost everyone else that has ever talked about this kind of stuff does not have tunnel vision that is lasered focus on Norris voting finishes...

Why even have a forum for discussion at all if we could get away with just ranking players by Norris voting finishes...?

 

[jigglysquishy]

Carlson was worse defensively than Zubov for my money, by a considerable amount too.

I'm not here to defend Zubov. At no point watching his career did I think I was watching a HoF player.

But Carlson is so so much worse defensively. The rise of offense only defensemen (Carlson, Burns, Green, late career Karlsson) is a bit of a head scratcher. It was tolerated in the late 80s/early 90s and then seemed to go away as scoring plummeted. But seems to be back now.

I thought Green was an aberration in 2009. He was in the perfect position to put up big points, but I never expected a Burns or Subban or Carlson to become the norm.

 

[Sentinel]

You plant corn, you grow corn. Weaponizing partial Norris Trophy voting records to such a high degree is worthy of derision.

1994: At least 42 voters (who you love) considered him top 3, perhaps as many as 53 voters.
1996: 10 voters considered top 3, as many as 13 considered him top 5.
1998: 17 to 27 voters considered top 3/5
etc. etc.

Craig Patrick called him the "premier offensive defenseman [in the league]...I wouldn't be surprised if Zubov gets 100 points..."

No one "forgets [about] the record" because almost everyone else that has ever talked about this kind of stuff does not have tunnel vision that is lasered focus on Norris voting finishes...

Why even have a forum for discussion at all if we could get away with just ranking players by Norris voting finishes...?

Maybe it would be more accurate.

"Weaponizing Norris voting" is a new one.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I'm not here to defend Zubov. At no point watching his career did I think I was watching a HoF player.

Yeah, I don't want to be defending Zubov to this degree either to be honest. But I'll make him look like Bobby Orr to dump on the "can you believe he only finished 7th and not 5th in blah blah blah?" nonsense...

 

[Michael Farkas]

Maybe it would be more accurate.

Well, yeah...you would think that because you're only looking at Norris voting as your guide. So, it's self-fulfilling.

 

[JackSlater]

Zubov is a pretty good example of an extremely marginal HHOF defenceman. I don't have issue with him being in but had he remained on the outside forever that would have been fine. I think that being in Dallas marginally helped his HHOF chances (got him another cup on a team that feels like it should have a few HHOFers who played there during their prime) while also somewhat dampening his Norris results because voters love points and he could have scored more if he'd stayed in Pittsburgh and won jack squat.

The Norris discussion is pointless. Trophies are an introduction to a discussion, not the end point. I'd expect any longtime fan to know enough to not blindly rely on trophy results. These are writers and TV personalities voting, not gods giving their divinely accurate results carved in stone. That said, Zubov's Norris results look fairly reasonable most years except for the various times when Gonchar, whom I was rarely impressed by, finished ahead of him.

 

[VanIslander]

No coach would put over the boards Zubov over Yushkevich when leading in the 3rd...

Zubov was always contentious; the analytics back then judging primarily on points and TOI.

 

[markymarc1215]

As a Ranger fan who watched every game he played for us, regardless of if he deserves to be in the HHOF or not, there is no way we win the Cup in 94 without him. He was our leading scorer with 89 points. Aside from Leetch, and with all due respect to Adam Fox, the best puck moving defenseman I've seen as a Ranger. He was an absolute dynamo for point production and lethal on the PP.

Also adding he was competent on defense, if not overly physical. Smart with his pinches and positional play.

Trading him for an underachieving Luc Robitaille and older Ulf Samuelsson crippled the Rangers. They never came remotely close to replacing him. Their pathetic attempt at doing so was signing a washed up Bruce Driver.

Off topic, I wonder if the decision to trade him really was a Messier thing. It was rumored that Mess felt he wasn't committed enough, but he also won a Cup with Mess as probably their best player that season and playoffs, excluding the Big 4 whose jerseys are hanging from the rafters.

 

[DRW895]

The disrespect Niedermayer gets on this forum is head scratching

He had more or less similar stat with M. Schneider, but who can seriously can compare Jewish man from NY Your with Niedermayer?

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

sometimes i look at zubov and think, larry murphy with less longevity and not quite such advantageous team situations

sometimes i think, gary suter with slightly better team situations

i think both are true, tbh. if it were my hall none of them would be in it, but my dman bar is very high. in a kevin lowe hall, they all are fine, although if suter’s crimes against hockey keep him out i am not upset by that whatsoever.

all this said, quinn hughes is the best dman in the league this year and the next level he needs to unlock is being able to do what zubov did on the PP. in terms of walking the blueline and QBing a PP in general, i have seen very few better than zubov.