Speculation: Seravalli: Arizona looking to add, no longer subtract

[rt]

They still don't have a legit 1C, hell they don't even have a legit 2C yet. Sure hopefully Cooley and Hayton end up that but it wasn't that long ago those positions were buttoned up by Strome and Dvorak. I think PainForShane concern is that they're going to end up in that situation again. One has to admit it's a little unusual to go through a rebuild yet somehow only end up with a single top 5 pick.

The rebuild isn’t even close to over. The tank is ending. These are not synonymous.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

I think Michkov is better than most 1 OAs.

If we get him at 6 it's a steal.

according to Redline, Mitchkov would be the 1OV in 8 of the last 10 drafts.

If the hearsay about his attitude is anywhere near close to being true, I still don't want him.

 

[hbk]

If the hearsay about his attitude is anywhere near close to being true, I still don't want him.

It's lying season. Don't believe anything this time of year let alone reports of character issues of a hockey player that only emerge a week before the draft.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

This is probably your best post, ever.

Haha idk, I kinda feel like my best post ever was the first one I ever made on forum 40 and where y'all helped me move out here to AZ. Appreciate it as always all the same though

 

[PainForShane]

The rebuild isn’t even close to over. The tank is ending. These are not synonymous.

And yet... if we improve from this year (as is reportedly our stated goal and what most ppl in this thread seem to be arguing for), then we will never again pick as high as 6OA (at least not in this cycle). Interesting way to try to build an actual SC contending team

To @Sinurgy's point, a rebuild teardown all the way to the studs should result in a bunch of elite players (who generally but not always come from high picks). Coming out of a full-on rebuild with a single top 5 pick, to me, well it seems kinda sad. Well said Sinurgy.

@The Feckless Puck, not ignoring you, you made 2 well thought out messages (both w lots of good points), they deserve a well thought out response. Thx for that, these are the types of discussions I prefer to have when possible bc lots of nuance and we both clearly care about the team (and neither of our opinions is wrong). Will respond lunch today if I can otherwise after work

 

[The Feckless Puck]

It's lying season. Don't believe anything this time of year let alone reports of character issues of a hockey player that only emerge a week before the draft.

He's also a smallish winger, and we don't need many more of those no matter what the talent.

In a different draft, I might feel differently, but in this one, I think we can get almost the same value on talent and a significant upgrade on size and positional flexibility from someone else.

And yet... if we improve from this year (as is reportedly our stated goal and what most ppl in this thread seem to be arguing for), then we will never again pick as high as 6OA (at least not in this cycle).

It's still possible to finish in a lottery position without being basement-level...

 

[hbk]

He's also a smallish winger, and we don't need many more of those no matter what the talent.

In a different draft, I might feel differently, but in this one, I think we can get almost the same value on talent and a significant upgrade on size and positional flexibility from someone else.



It's still possible to finish in a lottery position without being basement-level...

I don't think you understand how good the Russian kid is. He's potentially better than Bedard. Redline says he'd be the first pick overall in all but 2 of the last 10 drafts (essentially it's Bedard and McDavid who are better that's it). I'd rather get rid of the small player already on our roster to bring in a player with this level of elite skill. If he's there at 6 I will be screaming for this selection.

 

[Sinurgy]

The rebuild isn’t even close to over. The tank is ending. These are not synonymous.

No it's not and hopefully they can still somehow land a top 5 pick or 2 but it's increasingly unlikely if this conversation is any indicator.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

I don't think you understand how good the Russian kid is. He's potentially better than Bedard. Redline says he'd be the first pick overall in all but 2 of the last 10 drafts (essentially it's Bedard and McDavid who are better that's it). I'd rather get rid of the small player already on our roster to bring in a player with this level of elite skill. If he's there at 6 I will be screaming for this selection.

I get the whole "elite skill" thing. But here's the thing about hockey that you know as well as I do - it's possible to have a 50-goal scorer on a team and that team still finishes out of the playoffs.

Maybe I'm just contrarian, or just too non-traditional a fan, or whatever, but if I can get a guy like Leonard, who is 70% as skilled as Michkov but has 110% of his effort, teamwork, and compete level, while being bigger and more flexible positionally, then I take Leonard all day, every day.

Perhaps if I put it this way - does anything you've seen about Michkov scream at you, "Future captain"? Because if not, he's a luxury player - a supremely skilled offense generator, to be sure, but can you fit him into the team culture?

It's like if you had a budget for a new car, and you could either special-order a gold-plated Maybach or buy a top-of-the-line BMW and drive it right off the lot. I would do the latter 100% of the time because a) the driving feel suits me better in a BMW and b) it'll still get me where I want to go, even without all the bells and whistles that Maybach gives you for the money.

 

[Sinurgy]

I think too many people put too much weight on the pick number. If you get the right scouts, you get value regardless of where people rank prospects or in what order they're drafted. Look at Logan Cooley. Right now, there are people - credible people - who say he might have been the best player of his draft.

The emphasis on the pick number is purely for statistical reasons. The likelihood of drafting 1C's is much higher if you're drafting in the top 5. They're still very much available later and I'm hoping BA scouts can deliver but their odds increase if they're in the top 5. Cooley is looking like a great example of that.

 

[hbk]

I get the whole "elite skill" thing. But here's the thing about hockey that you know as well as I do - it's possible to have a 50-goal scorer on a team and that team still finishes out of the playoffs.

Maybe I'm just contrarian, or just too non-traditional a fan, or whatever, but if I can get a guy like Leonard, who is 70% as skilled as Michkov but has 110% of his effort, teamwork, and compete level, while being bigger and more flexible positionally, then I take Leonard all day, every day.

Perhaps if I put it this way - does anything you've seen about Michkov scream at you, "Future captain"? Because if not, he's a luxury player - a supremely skilled offense generator, to be sure, but can you fit him into the team culture?

It's like if you had a budget for a new car, and you could either special-order a gold-plated Maybach or buy a top-of-the-line BMW and drive it right off the lot. I would do the latter 100% of the time because a) the driving feel suits me better in a BMW and b) it'll still get me where I want to go, even without all the bells and whistles that Maybach gives you for the money.

Michkov screams franchise superstar player. Something we haven't had since Tkachuk. Pass that at your peril. We need top line skill. Wasn't that what all this was about? I really like Leonard as well but it's not close on skill.

Michkov goes 1st in 8 out of last 10 drafts. Where does Leonard go? 50-60? Later? let's not overthink this.

 

[Sinurgy]

Maybe I'm just contrarian, or just too non-traditional a fan, or whatever, but if I can get a guy like Leonard, who is 70% as skilled as Michkov but has 110% of his effort, teamwork, and compete level, while being bigger and more flexible positionally, then I take Leonard all day, every day.

If the various scouting reports area to be believed, Leonard would be more like 40% as skilled as Michkov not 70%.

Your analogy makes it seem like Michkov merely adds style but no more substance and I'm not sure that's accurate.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

We need top line skill. Wasn't that what all this was about?

No. The chase for Bedard was an exciting, but ultimately ancillary part of what Armstrong is doing. His aim is not to get The Next Big Superstar. His aim is to turn the franchise into a terror of depth, size, and willpower that will bend the league to his will. And I reiterate, I have seen nothing about Michkov that augments his tremendous skill to the point that he's a franchise-changer.

Jack Eichel is a Stanley Cup Champion. Connor McDavid lost to Eichel in the playoffs, even though he is a better player by far in all aspects of his game.

I, of course, have no impact on who we select. All I can do is have an opinion. But my opinion is that Michkov doesn't bring enough to this particular franchise to make him worth the risk.

 

[hbk]

No. The chase for Bedard was an exciting, but ultimately ancillary part of what Armstrong is doing. His aim is not to get The Next Big Superstar. His aim is to turn the franchise into a terror of depth, size, and willpower that will bend the league to his will. And I reiterate, I have seen nothing about Michkov that augments his tremendous skill to the point that he's a franchise-changer.

Jack Eichel is a Stanley Cup Champion. Connor McDavid lost to Eichel in the playoffs, even though he is a better player by far in all aspects of his game.

I, of course, have no impact on who we select. All I can do is have an opinion. But my opinion is that Michkov doesn't bring enough to this particular franchise to make him worth the risk.

and I'm saying you can't pass on elite franchise player level talent. McDavid (1st ov) lost to Eichel (2nd ov). You know who is rated higher than Eichel by Redline? Michkov.

I would move other small forwards if that's the hangup. I am already on record as saying I'm not opposed on moving Keller for the right package.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

and I'm saying you can't pass on elite franchise player level talent. McDavid (1st ov) lost to Eichel (2nd ov). You know who is rated higher than Eichel by Redline? Michkov.

I mean, good for Red Line, but I don't think they're the end-all be-all of hockey scouting... are they?

I would move other small forwards if that's the hangup. I am already on record as saying I'm not opposed on moving Keller for the right package.

If we could move Keller to get an additional top-10 draft pick so that we have 6, XX, and 12, then by all means take Michkov if you want. But doesn't it worry you in the slightest what Elliotte Friedman says about Michkov angling to be picked by Washington? I trust Friedman's intel as much as you trust The Red Line Report.

There are too many "ifs" that come in Michkov's baggage for me, no matter how skilled he is. This franchise is dying an embarrassing, very public, very slow death because of "ifs."

 

[wbwing]

I think you're both right! There's more than one way to do it. And Michkov's attitude is all guessing right now. He might in fact have those leadership qualities and you just can't tell because he gets jerked around in Russia and is under a tremendous microscope. If they get a chance to talk to him and feel better about his personality and commitment, draft away. If they don't, then yeah, pick the next guy on the list.

 

[RedBeard]

Drafting Michkov does not prevent Armstrong's plan of surrounding a player like Michkov with depth, size, and willpower. Let's have both. The concern for too many small players in the forward group is logical but Michkov does not have to be the sacrifice made. That is unless he is uninterested in playing for the Coyotes.

This will all boil down to our list and the potential meeting next week with Michkov and its impact on that same list.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

If they get a chance to talk to him and feel better about his personality and commitment, draft away. If they don't, then yeah, pick the next guy on the list.

And right there's the thing that worried me the most - the fact that even the teams who could get scouts to Russia couldn't get a chance to talk with him because he allegedly had no interest.

For us to get somewhere in the next decade on the ice, we have to have 6OA hit. It's not negotiable. Taken in a vacuum, yeah, Michkov's skill level would be a steal at 6OA. But we don't live in a vacuum.

 

[hbk]

I mean, good for Red Line, but I don't think they're the end-all be-all of hockey scouting... are they?



If we could move Keller to get an additional top-10 draft pick so that we have 6, XX, and 12, then by all means take Michkov if you want. But doesn't it worry you in the slightest what Elliotte Friedman says about Michkov angling to be picked by Washington? I trust Friedman's intel as much as you trust The Red Line Report.

There are too many "ifs" that come in Michkov's baggage for me, no matter how skilled he is. This franchise is dying an embarrassing, very public, very slow death because of "ifs."

I think the lack of star power and franchise player has also been a big detriment to the success of this franchise. Is he angling for Washington? I don't know. All I know is I've seen Michkov play and he's an incredible elite level talent. Talent that I don't feel you can pass on based on rumors. This is what we pay our scouts to figure out. I don't see Michkov giving up North America for the next 10 years or so because he was picked by Arizona. I just don't see it.

I've echoed some similar negative concerns about Michkov around when his dad died this year. I was also concerned about getting him over to North America and then Russian prospects started signing in droves and all of a sudden our top Russian prospect is going to a US University. I can't ignore that issue isn't what I feared it once to be.

This is a good debate and I'm happy to have it. I hope our scouts are arguing with more passion than we are.

For the record, I have Michkov at 3 (and in hindsight I think i should have kept him at 2) and Leonard at 10 on my list.

 

[Jakey53]

I get the whole "elite skill" thing. But here's the thing about hockey that you know as well as I do - it's possible to have a 50-goal scorer on a team and that team still finishes out of the playoffs.

Maybe I'm just contrarian, or just too non-traditional a fan, or whatever, but if I can get a guy like Leonard, who is 70% as skilled as Michkov but has 110% of his effort, teamwork, and compete level, while being bigger and more flexible positionally, then I take Leonard all day, every day.

Perhaps if I put it this way - does anything you've seen about Michkov scream at you, "Future captain"? Because if not, he's a luxury player - a supremely skilled offense generator, to be sure, but can you fit him into the team culture?

It's like if you had a budget for a new car, and you could either special-order a gold-plated Maybach or buy a top-of-the-line BMW and drive it right off the lot. I would do the latter 100% of the time because a) the driving feel suits me better in a BMW and b) it'll still get me where I want to go, even without all the bells and whistles that Maybach gives you for the money.

So, you would take Leonard over a player like Bedard? If you say yes you are crazy. I have a hate for Russians, but if this kid fell to us you have to be nuts not to take him.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

I think the lack of star power and franchise player has also been a big detriment to the success of this franchise. Is he angling for Washington? I don't know. All I know is I've seen Michkov play and he's an incredible elite level talent. Talent that I don't feel you can pass on based on rumors. This is what we pay our scouts to figure out. I don't see Michkov giving up North America for the next 10 years or so because he was picked by Arizona. I just don't see it.

I don't think anyone believed that Blake Wheeler would stiff the team that turned him into a hot commodity by picking him so high in the first round either, but he did - turned down the maximum amount of money we could give him to do it, too.

I think if we were anywhere else in this franchise's life cycle, it'd be a different debate. If we had the TED, or even if we were still playing in Glendale, it's a much different conversation. But right now we have absentee ownership, no guaranteed arena in two years, and players wanting out if there isn't any clarity in the next few months. The ledge we're holding onto is just stupendously precarious, and the drop is a killer. I just can't see us spending 6OA on Michkov, no matter how good he ends up being. We could, though, make a killing giving him to Washington at 6OA, which intrigues me a lot.

This is a good debate and I'm happy to have it. I hope our scouts are arguing with more passion than we are.

I don't know our hockey scouts, but I know several scouts in a different sport, and if they're not arguing they're not alive. I agree with you - I hope that this situation is a massive, massive debate internally so that, when they get to the draft table, every conceivable element of this one way or the other will have been addressed.

So, you would take Leonard over a player like Bedard? If you say yes you are crazy. I have a hate for Russians, but if this kid fell to us you have to be nuts not to take him.

If Bedard had the same baggage and uncertainty as Michkov has, absolutely.

 

[Jakey53]

I don't think you understand how good the Russian kid is. He's potentially better than Bedard. Redline says he'd be the first pick overall in all but 2 of the last 10 drafts (essentially it's Bedard and McDavid who are better that's it). I'd rather get rid of the small player already on our roster to bring in a player with this level of elite skill. If he's there at 6 I will be screaming for this selection.

Didn't you say last year that if Wright fell to us you would be screaming for this selection, or something close to that?

 

[Jagged Ice]

Michkov screams franchise superstar player. Something we haven't had since Tkachuk. Pass that at your peril. We need top line skill. Wasn't that what all this was about? I really like Leonard as well but it's not close on skill.

Michkov goes 1st in 8 out of last 10 drafts. Where does Leonard go? 50-60? Later? let's not overthink this.

I'm back on the Michkov train after jumping off last week after hearing he has "select" destination teams. It sounded like a lot of drama we just don't need to deal with. He should be selected 2nd after Bedard. If he makes it known he doesn't want to play in Arizona, I think we'll get a boatload for him after his contract is up with the KHL. I still don't think BA takes him and looks to Detroit and Washington to pay up at the draft for him. Hopefully he goes to San Jose and Smith or Leonard makes it to #6. Anyone but Reinbacher for me.

 

[Jakey53]

I don't think anyone believed that Blake Wheeler would stiff the team that turned him into a hot commodity by picking him so high in the first round either, but he did - turned down the maximum amount of money we could give him to do it, too.

I think if we were anywhere else in this franchise's life cycle, it'd be a different debate. If we had the TED, or even if we were still playing in Glendale, it's a much different conversation. But right now we have absentee ownership, no guaranteed arena in two years, and players wanting out if there isn't any clarity in the next few months. The ledge we're holding onto is just stupendously precarious, and the drop is a killer. I just can't see us spending 6OA on Michkov, no matter how good he ends up being. We could, though, make a killing giving him to Washington at 6OA, which intrigues me a lot.



I don't know our hockey scouts, but I know several scouts in a different sport, and if they're not arguing they're not alive. I agree with you - I hope that this situation is a massive, massive debate internally so that, when they get to the draft table, every conceivable element of this one way or the other will have been addressed.



If Bedard had the same baggage and uncertainty as Michkov has, absolutely.

The baggage could be all hearsay. The uncertainty I think is more to do with anxiety than anything. He will come to the NHL, and he will play for whatever team drafts him.

 

[hbk]

I don't think anyone believed that Blake Wheeler would stiff the team that turned him into a hot commodity by picking him so high in the first round either, but he did - turned down the maximum amount of money we could give him to do it, too.

I think if we were anywhere else in this franchise's life cycle, it'd be a different debate. If we had the TED, or even if we were still playing in Glendale, it's a much different conversation. But right now we have absentee ownership, no guaranteed arena in two years, and players wanting out if there isn't any clarity in the next few months. The ledge we're holding onto is just stupendously precarious, and the drop is a killer. I just can't see us spending 6OA on Michkov, no matter how good he ends up being. We could, though, make a killing giving him to Washington at 6OA, which intrigues me a lot.



I don't know our hockey scouts, but I know several scouts in a different sport, and if they're not arguing they're not alive. I agree with you - I hope that this situation is a massive, massive debate internally so that, when they get to the draft table, every conceivable element of this one way or the other will have been addressed.



If Bedard had the same baggage and uncertainty as Michkov has, absolutely.

Well we did dick Wheeler around for 4 years because he did look like a bust. I have recalled a story on this board from over a decade ago during Wheeler's 2nd year with Minni (his 3rd year after his draft) when I sat beside a Calgary Flames scout and he told me he didn't think Wheeler was going to make the NHL period (he also said he had Jonathon Toews as the top eligible player in that years draft). The train of thought by then GM Maloney was that the compensatory pick (36 OV) was going to be better than a player who may never make the NHL. Then his 4th year happened and he took a huge step in development. Had we offered him a contract that 3rd year Wheeler would have signed.