I agree with you that we're not there yet.
Boston is an interesting reference. They're getting superb goaltending and have a lot of veterans that are used to winning. We're almost right with them 5 on 5 driving play. Their 5th in Corsi %, we're 7th. They're 3rd in expected goals %, we're 9th. We're the only team in the top 10 in expected goals % not currently in the playoffs and we're not even close. We're getting beyond small sample size too. Carrying the better of the play for as long as we have and our W-L record is an anomaly
The real question is what's causing the anomaly? We're 29th in shooting % 5 on 5. We're getting looks, scoring chances, high danger chances, but we're not scoring. Just DeBrincat alone pacing at low 40s would be another 7 or 8 goals. And our goalies have decent numbers but not great. We're giving up too many soft goals. I count 4 in the last 2 games and a lost point on Thursday
I responded to Micklebot's post to add a little more detail. As I mentioned the Norris injury hurt and we don't have experienced center depth to step up. It's a lot for someone like Pinto to be a 2C and step up at this stage.
I do think given that our offensive metrics are pretty good, it points to team defense as the deficiency.
For some reason, we've had a lot of sloppy team D play, blown coverage, poor positioning, etc. This could be because of bad coaching perhaps & definitely poor execution on the part of our players. It could be some combination of both of those factors.
Our goaltenders have been letting in too many softies, so we find ourselves on the wrong side of the scoreboard trying to climb back in the game.
I think our blueline needs some bolstering as well. Even with Zub healthy, another good RD would really help.
The lack of Debrincat goal scoring has hurt. He hasn't played poorly, but does have a lot of PP apples that boost his numbers. With the amount we are paying him, and with what we gave up to acquire him, I just think we need more from him. Batherson has had an off year as well (looking better the last 2 games though).
And for some reason we tend to sleep walk in the first half of the 1st period most games. We have to claw our way back into games versus slanting the game in our favour.