Salary Cap: Sens don't qualify Duclair

[Sens of Anarchy]

Given the rumoured offer of 4.25 per year for 3 years and the Dadonov signing at 5 per year for 3 years, it looks to me they wanted an offensive winger for the next 3 years. Duclair could have been that player but the ask of 5 years was too long of a commitment and a 1 year arbitration award was too short.

The idea that the team should have known this was coming because they could have negotiated starting in January is flawed. The assumption that a player is always willing to negotiate mid season is wrong, we know that is not the case.

What I took from that is that the writer thought they should have qualified him vs letting him walk. Speculation on the January / Trade at the deadline part but we just don't know what was tried and if the Duclair camp was or wasn't willing. Would have been worth a try.

 

[NyQuil]

What I took from that is that the writer thought they should have qualified him vs letting him walk. Speculation on the January / Trade at the deadline part but we just don't know what was tried and if the Duclair camp was or wasn't willing. Would have been worth a try.

I'm also curious how the self-representation factors into it or not.

Did the situation change at all as a result? When did that happen anyway?

 

[TheDebater]

The ship is sailing but not yet reached a safe port.

I honestly cannot remember the last time I agreed with anything Shawn Simpson has said. He just says whatever he is thinking without actually giving it any thought or basis whatsoever.

Kind of like how adamant he was that we were drafting Askarov at #5.

 

[Masked]

I'm also curious how the self-representation factors into it or not.

Did the situation change at all as a result? When did that happen anyway?

I'd guess with an agent the Senators would have an idea of how negotiations would go. With Duclair representing himself, they have no idea how things would play out with him. If he took them to arbitration, they'd have no chance to push salary down the road into future seasons.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I'm also curious how the self-representation factors into it or not.

Did the situation change at all as a result? When did that happen anyway?

Not sure when he began representing himself.

This is from a Garrioch piece

“I don’t really want to get into the specifics of the negotiations,” Dorion said Wednesday night. “All I will say on this was that Anthony chose to represent himself. We told him from Day 1 that it’s not easy to represent yourself. We offered him a substantial raise over what he made last year and it’s unfortunate we couldn’t come to a contract agreement.
“We don’t close the door on anything, but he will explore unrestricted free agency.”
If the Senators had gone to arbitration, they would have been able to walk away on an award that was $4.5 million or higher. It’s hard to say what happened in the negotiations, but clearly the Senators felt they had reached their ceiling in these discussions and decided not to go any further.

 

[Korpse]

What I took from that is that the writer thought they should have qualified him vs letting him walk. Speculation on the January / Trade at the deadline part but we just don't know what was tried and if the Duclair camp was or wasn't willing. Would have been worth a try.

They could have qualified him. But it would have still left the hole in their line up moving forward. By not qualifying him it allowed them to explore other options, which they did and filled his slot with Dadonov. Now they have a hole in the lineup filled for the next three season's which works out well, with Stutzle potentially coming off his ELC as well as other players potentially looking at long term contracts. They now have a commitment and flexibility moving forward.

Exactly my point we can't just assume Duclair was willing to negotiate mid season.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Duclair’s demands don’t change the fact the Sens fumbled the situation

“The team could walk away if the arbitrator awarded Duclair more than ~$4 million though, a figure that seems more than reasonable for a player of Duclair’s calibre.”

“Instead, Ottawa badly misplayed their hand and turned one of the smartest moves they’d made in recent years into nothing”

Writer thinks $4M is okay.

Pierre and I don’t.

 

[JD1]

Agents talk to GMs all the time and presumably to other agents. They all have a feeling for the market. Without the benefit of an agent I am wondering if Duclair was well uninformed/unable to see the impact of current events. Guys are taking less money all over the place. It'd be a shame for Duclair if he didn't properly think through circumstances and his ask had no bearing on today's reality

 

[Hale The Villain]

“The team could walk away if the arbitrator awarded Duclair more than ~$4 million though, a figure that seems more than reasonable for a player of Duclair’s calibre.”

“Instead, Ottawa badly misplayed their hand and turned one of the smartest moves they’d made in recent years into nothing”

Writer thinks $4M is okay.

Pierre and I don’t.

What would be the big problem with paying Duclair 3-4.5M for one season?

 

[Hale The Villain]

We walk away from a 25YR old with 31G in his 87GP as a Senator because he probably gets 3-4M in arbitration, but gladly give up a pick to pay Gudbranson similar money.

There's a lot of rational for not giving Duclair a nice medium-long term contract given his inconsistency season-to-season (which is apparently what we did), but I see little rational for not taking Duclair to arbitration and getting him on a cheap 1YR deal.

 

[NyQuil]

We walk away from a 25YR old with 31G in his 87GP as a Senator because he probably gets 3-4M in arbitration, but gladly give up a pick to pay Gudbranson similar money.

There's a lot of rational for not giving Duclair a nice medium-long term contract given his inconsistency season-to-season (which is apparently what we did), but I see little rational for not taking Duclair to arbitration and getting him on a cheap 1YR deal.

This is definitely one of those "I'd like to know more of what actually happened" scenarios than just looking at the numbers.

 

[playasRus]

They could have qualified him. But it would have still left the hole in their line up moving forward. By not qualifying him it allowed them to explore other options, which they did and filled his slot with Dadonov.

We still have a hole in the Top 6 Forward group though. I don't like relying on an 18 yo to suddenly emerge as a top line forward with no time.

This is definitely one of those "I'd like to know more of what actually happened" scenarios than just looking at the numbers.

Agreed. Things worked out well with C. Brown and us picking up Dadonov, but Duke would have been an easy 4.2 mil x 1 year via arbitration "loss" to take.

Imagine we didn't get Dadonov. Duclair would have us by the balls. So pure strategic stand point, odd move by management for low risk reward, high risk loss situation.

Does Duclair + Dadonov + Brown clog up roster spot for the kids? (serious question)

Dadonov - Tierney - Duclair

Tkachuk - White - C.Brown

Paul - L.Brown - Batherson

XXX - Anisimov - Watson

Stuztle/Balcers/Chlapik/Peca/Beaudin

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think one dimensional or head cases or "flawed" players often have trouble in contract negotiations in general and their expectations heading in.

It's like they don't see the factors that lead to them getting smaller offers with less term.

For example, Mike Hoffman's offensive numbers tell you he should probably have been getting a Mark Stone like contract, if not more, but anybody who watches hockey knows that's insane and unreasonable. I'm not convinced that would register with Hoffman and he probably feels like he's not getting a fair shake.

Duclair obviously falls in to that somewhat one dimensional or flawed category, while he's probably pointing to the fact that he has put up solid numbers since joining Ottawa.

 

[Korpse]

We still have a hole in the Top 6 Forward group though. I don't like relying on an 18 yo to suddenly emerge as a top line forward with no time.

Regardless of those feelings, that seems to be the plan. Wether it's Stutzle or another unestablished player it seem's clear that the organization want's to leave a spot for a younger player. They have a plan, negotiations lead them to believe he wasn't going to fit the plan, they went and found someone who would.

 

[JD1]

What would be the big problem with paying Duclair 3-4.5M for one season?

At this point, what would be the purpose of paying Duclair 3-4.5 for one season?

 

[BondraTime]

The Duclair we saw from December 4th to the 21st isn't the player you're getting, and that 2 week streak was the best he will ever have.

Dec 4th - 21st - 9gp 11g 3a

Rest of season = 57gp 12g 14a

He's a streaky 20 goal guy when given prime minutes, and he will never get those minutes on a team looking to contend

 

[Hale The Villain]

At this point, what would be the purpose of paying Duclair 3-4.5 for one season?

Having someone who can potentially score 20-30G, 50-60P.

 

[Frank8]

The Duclair we saw from December 4th to the 21st isn't the player you're getting, and that 2 week streak was the best he will ever have.

Dec 4th - 21st - 9gp 11g 3a

Rest of season = 57gp 12g 14a

He's a streaky 20 goal guy when given prime minutes, and he will never get those minutes on a team looking to contend

I think that hot streak is indicative of the player he could be if he ever got past the mental aspects of the game for a full season. I would have been curious to see what he could have become with a long-term contract and a regular gig in the top six.

 

[JD1]

Having someone who can potentially score 20-30G, 50-60P.

And that changes this upcoming season how?

 

[BondraTime]

I think that hot streak is indicative of the player he could be if he ever got past the mental aspects of the game for a full season. I would have been curious to see what he could have become with a long-term contract and a regular gig in the top six.

He's not a guy a team looking to contend wants in the top 6

 

[Hale The Villain]

And that changes this upcoming season how?

Goals are good. Winning is good.

Team that scores more goals than other team wins hockey game.