TSN: Sens acquire Josh Brown from FLA for 4th Rd pick

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Totally, nothing at all....Well it’s weird the players didn’t treat it as nothing after they were caught.
Anyway your free to go fill a team with back stabbing disrespectful A-holes that treat the boss like a pile of dirt because that always works out so well in a work environment.

Seems it would fit right in with the man up tops similar behavior then . Not sure why the players should be held to different standards. Besides, the players being right, they were simply caught on tape thus had to apologize as it would always go. Those conversations would be had 1000 times a season, but I know you are immune to reason so I'll drop it.

I was mostly looking to point out that you originally quoted JD1 that Demelo didn't want to sign here, and he pointed out that he had made reference to that, so you chose to bring up the uber event to shift your goal posts and continue with contrarian for sake of it.

 

[BatherSeason]

Totally, nothing at all....Well it’s weird the players didn’t treat it as nothing after they were caught.
Anyway your free to go fill a team with back stabbing disrespectful A-holes that treat the boss like a pile of dirt because that always works out so well in a work environment.

Not taking the bait..

We know the dirt starts at the top (I was baited)

 

[violaswallet]

Florida fan: I think Brown is getting undervalued here. He plays solid defense and doesn’t hurt the team; his advanced stats are meh because he played with one of our worst defensive players—Yandle. Brown’s one of those role players that does his job and can occasionally step up with a fight. I think you’ll be happy with his play if you expect him to be on the third pairing with a more offensively oriented player.

Florida traded him because we have a couple of younger prospects (Priskie and Keeper) that have higher potential and that we need spots for. As bad as our defense is, we actually have a pretty strong pipeline of prospects with ceilings in the second pairing (Priskie, Keeper, Ludvig, Koly who is doing great in the KHL) And we need to figure out who can play.

It seems to me that Ottawa could use a solid defensive guy to pair with some of the less defensively oriented players and might not have anyone in the system as cheap as Brown so the pick seems fair

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Florida fan: I think Brown is getting undervalued here. He plays solid defense and doesn’t hurt the team; his advanced stats are meh because he played with one of our worst defensive players—Yandle. Brown’s one of those role players that does his job and can occasionally step up with a fight. I think you’ll be happy with his play if you expect him to be on the third pairing with a more offensively oriented player.

Florida traded him because we have a couple of younger prospects (Priskie and Keeper) that have higher potential and that we need spots for. As bad as our defense is, we actually have a pretty strong pipeline of prospects with ceilings in the second pairing (Priskie, Keeper, Ludvig, Koly who is doing great in the KHL) And we need to figure out who can play.

It seems to me that Ottawa could use a solid defensive guy to pair with some of the less defensively oriented players and might not have anyone in the system as cheap as Brown so the pick seems fair

Thanks for the info. I heard a lot of positives so far as well.

 

[JD1]

There was a disconnect between what people thought ceci was worth and what third party sources thought he'd get too. People don't have a disconnect between what DeMelo will get and what 3rd party sources think he will (unless you count Sweatred thinking he'll get a lot more).

People find whipping boys on their own team all the time and end up having a distorted perception of value. Not saying it can't be because of him being a part of the trade, and in some cases it very well may be, but i think the jump to the conclusion it is in most cases or at a general level because of that is very much on shaky grounds.

Tell you what

analyzing patterns, analyzing data, detecting bias ... this is part of what I do for a living. And I'm good at it.

I didn't jump to a conclusion. I developed a point of view from years of reading data on this site.

You can come up with all kinds of alternative reasons for it and there might be a degree of truth to some of them, but on a balance of probabilities I'm quite comfortable with what I'm attributing it too.

 

[violaswallet]

Thanks for the info. I heard a lot of positives so far as well.

Yep yep! The issue with Brown is potential going forward: Brown is what he is now Florida just has prospects that can probably step in (especially now the train wreck that is Matheson is jettisoned)without much of a gap with Brown and have much higher realizable ceilings

 

[GCK]

4.9 for Tierney, 4.8 for Duclair, 3.4 for Brown estimates

4.2 x 2 for Tierney, 4 x 3 for Duclair, 4.75 x 5 for Brown.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

4.2 x 2 for Tierney, 4 x 3 for Duclair, 4.75 x 5 for Brown.

I feel like that's a little rich for Brown based on his bargaining power and the covid impacts really hurting what will be out there for players for a while.

They may choose to do something like that because the org. wants to, but imo he should be able to easily be squeezed for a little less and be able to go at least one year less. 4x4 is the most I'd like to go there.

We like to play hardball with the big guns and I'd like to see that applied to the support guys too.

I like the Duclair contract and don't mind the Tierney one. They both should still be tradeable with that aav when they are pushed out of their spots.

 

[JD1]

4.2 x 2 for Tierney, 4 x 3 for Duclair, 4.75 x 5 for Brown.

I'd rather go more money less term with Duclair, the other two I'd do. Brown might be a tad high, but i like his compete and what it shows the younger players. I think Duclair has a ton of talent but comes with an attitude/compete risk. I'd want to be able to get out from that easily if it materializes

 

[BankStreetParade]

I'd rather go more money less term with Duclair, the other two I'd do. Brown might be a tad high, but i like his compete and what it shows the younger players. I think Duclair has a ton of talent but comes with an attitude/compete risk. I'd want to be able to get out from that easily if it materializes

Honestly, I think that might be a bit cheap for Duclair. He's only 26, put up pretty decent numbers relative to the quality of the team, is a French-Canadian ambassador for the team and has great attributes of speed and goal-scoring skill. I really think we'd be lucky to get him on a medium term deal at $4 million per.

 

[Leafmealone11]

Seems it would fit right in with the man up tops similar behavior then . Not sure why the players should be held to different standards. Besides, the players being right, they were simply caught on tape thus had to apologize as it would always go. Those conversations would be had 1000 times a season, but I know you are immune to reason so I'll drop it.

I was mostly looking to point out that you originally quoted JD1 that Demelo didn't want to sign here, and he pointed out that he had made reference to that, so you chose to bring up the uber event to shift your goal posts and continue with contrarian for sake of it.

So if your one of the young guys on the team you go home turn on the tv or internet and Demelo and Duchene are laughing at what a shit job you do killing penalties and basically saying you do nothing and that’s fine?
It isn’t, these are not high school kids they are expected to be professional and act professional
And they get paid extremely well to be held to a different standard
that crap isn’t ok at any job at any level. And no guys are not out crapping all over other players on the team 10000 times a season

 

[Sweatred]

So Boro, who had been happy to sign several deals here, grew up here and has tons of ties to the city, is going to demand a significantly more lucrative deal here than what 3rd parties think he will get on an open market?

I mean, i can buy into that if its because of the hypothetical scenario where we already told him to pound salt and are now circling back, but if we wanted to sign him back in March for example, you think we'd have to pay a premium that exceeds the tax gap?

He was near the top in the league and BS/Hits .. he scored more goals/same as Thomas Chabot. I think he’s looking for a home run... something with double digits. He may not get it but there is zero chance he offers to play in Ottawa for $1.2 or whatever you said ... at least until he exhausts every option.

 

[Sweatred]

4.2 x 2 for Tierney, 4 x 3 for Duclair, 4.75 x 5 for Brown.

These numbers
blown my mind when I think back to how excited everyone was to give White $4.75... on what planet can someone be thrilled about $4.75 for White but not willing to give Brown, Duclair, or CT more.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

So if your one of the young guys on the team you go home turn on the tv or internet and Demelo and Duchene are laughing at what a shit job you do killing penalties and basically saying you do nothing and that’s fine?
It isn’t, these are not high school kids they are expected to be professional and act professional
And they get paid extremely well to be held to a different standard
that crap isn’t ok at any job at any level. And no guys are not out crapping all over other players on the team 10000 times a season

You are entitled to your opinion but I'm going to agree to disagree. We've done this dance before.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

These numbers
blown my mind when I think back to how excited everyone was to give White $4.75... on what planet can someone be thrilled about $4.75 for White but not willing to give Brown, Duclair, or CT more.

Its quite obvious.

People were on board with paying White for potential they thought was there and White didn't play up to it last year. It could be a bust but at least is super cheap buyout for the most part and might have room to grow. Youre right though, it could just ultimately be bad evaluation and a bad contract by Dorion.

These guys being discussed have essentially hit their ceiling and are being discussed as being paid pretty much max value in their careers. Nothing wrong with signing them, but they are bridge players for the real team in a few years and they should be playing hardball with the support players that don't have a ton of leverage during covid flat cap era. Squeeze the juice as cheap as possible and spit them out when we're done with them.

 

[Micklebot]

He was near the top in the league and BS/Hits .. he scored more goals/same as Thomas Chabot. I think he’s looking for a home run... something with double digits. He may not get it but there is zero chance he offers to play in Ottawa for $1.2 or whatever you said ... at least until he exhausts every option.

Ok, so you think the two 3rd party sources are underestimating his value altogether? I posted them because they remove fan bias.

I mean, if he had a history of putting up 7 or 8 goals a year along with the other stuff, maybe the 3rd parties would have his estimated salary higher like you do. Most teams don't throw money a 30 year olds the first season they show any signs of offense, and most teams would be pretty quick to point to his anomalous sh% when he brought up goals in negotiations. It's also pretty uncommon to see teams throw loads of cash to 3rd pair demen that didn't work their way up the lines of one of the worst teams in the league.

I appreciate that you think he wants a home run deal, I'm sure every player does, but he doesn't really have the leverage to demand that and its reflected in the two site's estimates. I'm sure he has an agent that will coach him on what is a realistic expectation for his market value, i can't imagine that his agent would advise him to only accept a home run deal from his hometown given he seemed to be pretty happy here.

 

[Sweatred]

Its quite obvious.

People were on board with paying White for potential they thought was there and White didn't play up to it last year. It could be a bust but at least is super cheap buyout for the most part and might have room to grow. Youre right though, it could just ultimately be bad evaluation and a bad contract by Dorion.

These guys being discussed have essentially hit their ceiling and are being discussed as being paid pretty much max value in their careers. Nothing wrong with signing them, but they are bridge players for the real team in a few years and they should be playing hardball with the support players that don't have a ton of leverage during covid flat cap era. Squeeze the juice as cheap as possible and spit them out when we're done with them.

Sure .. I get that but does anyone think White will score 25+G? Duclair had 23 in a shortened season and was useful on the PP and PK. White will make over $6 towards the end and I would think a DUC type season is his ceiling ?

 

[Samsquanch]

It feels like people forget that White had 7pts in his last 6gp and was playing 17-18mins a game before covid happened. He got his confidence back and the trust of his coach, and made great use of his increased role and minutes. He has it in him to be a solid player.

It was a putrid start to the year for him that's a fact. But I really dont feel like he has that far to go to be worth his cap hit next season. And he could turn into a massive steal for us really quickly if he gets anything north of 50pts in the next 2 seasons.

 

[Sweatred]

And he could turn into a massive steal for us really quickly if he gets anything north of 50pts in the next 2 seasons.

His contact pushes into $5+ and $6+ ranges .Duc had 23 goals in limited games and most here want him paid sub $4.5... White’s game would have to evolve into something where he was hard to play against, driving play, and getting 50+ Pts a year to be a “massive steal”. Pageau makes $5 million and is good full value for that contract. White’s game would have to be wayyyy better than Pageau to justify getting upward of $6.25 to be a steal.

Of all the comparisons of player we could have kept ... we’re paying white $1.5 million less than what Pager signed for. I’d gamble on Pagers production over the next 5 years vs Whites.

 

[GCK]

His contact pushes into $5+ and $6+ ranges .Duc had 23 goals in limited games and most here want him paid sub $4.5... White’s game would have to evolve into something where he was hard to play against, driving play, and getting 50+ Pts a year to be a “massive steal”. Pageau makes $5 million and is good full value for that contract. White’s game would have to be wayyyy better than Pageau to justify getting upward of $6.25 to be a steal.

Of all the comparisons of player we could have kept ... we’re paying white $1.5 million less than what Pager signed for. I’d gamble on Pagers production over the next 5 years vs Whites.

This thread is about the Josh Brown trade.

 

[Sweatred]

Ok, so you think the two 3rd party sources are underestimating his value altogether? I posted them because they remove fan bias.

I mean, if he had a history of putting up 7 or 8 goals a year along with the other stuff, maybe the 3rd parties would have his estimated salary higher like you do. Most teams don't throw money a 30 year olds the first season they show any signs of offense, and most teams would be pretty quick to point to his anomalous sh% when he brought up goals in negotiations. It's also pretty uncommon to see teams throw loads of cash to 3rd pair demen that didn't work their way up the lines of one of the worst teams in the league.

I appreciate that you think he wants a home run deal, I'm sure every player does, but he doesn't really have the leverage to demand that and its reflected in the two site's estimates. I'm sure he has an agent that will coach him on what is a realistic expectation for his market value, i can't imagine that his agent would advise him to only accept a home run deal from his hometown given he seemed to be pretty happy here.

Pageau didn’t have any problem getting paid for full value for his 2019-20 season. He’s got a little more history but Boro’s not lookin for $30 million either. Brown is a decent body at a low cost to cover the Sens position of need. As I said before I would bet everything I owned that Boro (has) turned down a $1.2 x2 offer from the Sens. He may end up signing somewhere down the road at that price but he isn’t signing that Oct 1.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if DJ had some in input. The team needs size and a dman who will BS/PK. “Hey DJ, do you want this guy or do you want be to pick a multi millionaire off the FA scrap heap... the one who will be away or move his family to Ottawa for $1... Brown will cost me a 4th?” ...

 

[Micklebot]

I liked DeMelo and yes it was a financial deal. DeMelo has earned himself a decent paycheque. He's not a guy that's made a lot to this point in his career. He had a good run here and proved himself. He's going to get paid. But seems like the brass here decided it wasn't here where he was going to get paid.

We can debate why. We can debate whether they should have signed him. But once they arrive at the point that they're moving him, you get what you can get and as someone saud, it's not like PD said "oh no, a 2nd us too much, a 3rd works for me"

I'd a been ok with keeping him.

Id have rathered keep DeMelo but I think they wanted a physical presence on the backend so he wasn't seen as the solution given the makeup of the rest of the group.

 

[Xspyrit]

lol this White thing is starting to make me think about when I had to defend the player I disliked the most, Colin Greening. I don't even like White. I prefer Tkachuk, Duclair, Connor Brown, Batherson, Balcers, Chlapik, Logan Brown, even Nick Paul and soon many others.

It's again in every thread.

These numbers
blown my mind when I think back to how excited everyone was to give White $4.75... on what planet can someone be thrilled about $4.75 for White but not willing to give Brown, Duclair, or CT more.

White was not paid for what he did in 2019-20, but for what he did in 2018-19 and "most likely" going forward.

His average salary for these 2 years (because Cap Hit really doesn't matter for Ottawa) has been 2 462 500$ per season (0.925 + 4.0)

He has produced 21 Goals 43 Assists in 132 GP (average of 13 Goals, 27 Assists, 40 Points per 82 games)

There is absolutely nothing to cry about. If the trend continues and he can't bounce back to what he did in 2018-19, then yes. His salary in 2020-21 (4.0) will be lower than his cap hit (4.75) again, so the Sens would like to see him bounce back at least partially but start reaching his peak by 2022

It really isn't worth an unhealthy obssession.

I'm not stating these facts for you as I know you're too smart for them. Just laying that for everybody else to see.

His contact pushes into $5+ and $6+ ranges .Duc had 23 goals in limited games and most here want him paid sub $4.5... White’s game would have to evolve into something where he was hard to play against, driving play, and getting 50+ Pts a year to be a “massive steal”. Pageau makes $5 million and is good full value for that contract. White’s game would have to be wayyyy better than Pageau to justify getting upward of $6.25 to be a steal.

Of all the comparisons of player we could have kept ... we’re paying white $1.5 million less than what Pager signed for. I’d gamble on Pagers production over the next 5 years vs Whites.

White gets paid 6.25 in his last contract year but BELOW 5.0 in the other 5 seasons. I think we're at least smart enough to load up a Cap Friendly page.

The 6.25 is to to make up for the first 2 years being "only" 4.0

 

[Sens72]

Who would've thought a trade for Josh Brown would warrant 18 pages! Imagine the discussion if we trade for a notable player

 

[GCK]

Who would've thought a trade for Josh Brown would warrant 18 pages! Imagine the discussion if we trade for a notable player

To be fair 4 pages have been about Colin White