Seattle Mock Expansion Draft: Best Players Available

[Buck Naked]

If you read the analysis, Carolina negotiated a side deal to prevent Pesce from being selected by Seattle. So despite being exposed, Pesce was not available for Seattle. Haula's experience from the Vegas expansion was a big factor in his selection for both the win-now and BPA teams. Seattle will surely pick a couple players that have been through this process before and Haula is one of the best available.

What was the fictional deal? I don't believe Seattle would negotiate any kind of deal if they knew Pesce was available. Take Haula + what? Two 1st?

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

We have 2 years, 100 signings and about 50 trades to go before we know who is available

So this thread has....jumped the shark?

 

[Larry Fisher]

Ah, they were all just Campbell from the Kings. lol

Campbell was one of three unanimous selections across all three mocks, along with Zadorov (Colorado) and Appleton (Winnipeg). Several other players appeared in two of the three mocks since BPA was something of a hybrid between win now and future.

 

[bsu]

Ducks expose their only RD? Why would they expose Manson over Guhle?

 

[Larry Fisher]

If the draft was held this year Montreal wouldn't need to protect koktaniemi, mete, or juulsen. That means they could protect byron, petry, and kulak. Probably results in armia being taken.

Correct, but in order to use CapFriendly's expansion tool, I had to apply the 2021 eligibility rules to 2019. Otherwise, this would have been a massive undertaking and all manual labour since CapFriendly's expansion tool can't be adjusted to reflect today. That would have required these mocks being conducted in a Google doc/Excel sheet to eliminate all the exempt ELCs and add in all the existing NMCs that expire before 2021. From there, I would have had to manually track/sort and calculate the protected/exposed lists, including all the salaries to stay within the cap (above the floor, below the ceiling). I couldn't justify that time commitment — I already put 40-plus hours into conducting and presenting these three mocks — so I improvised and cut that corner while noting it prior to the selections under the "Setting Stage for Mock Series" intro.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I think the Flames will go 4+4

Protecting Monahan, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Giordano, Hanifin, Andersson and Valimaki.

So maybe losing Mikael Backlund?

edit: Just realized they would have to protect Valimaki

I would assume Seattle selects Dube or Bennett ahead of Backlund but likely one of those three ahead of Brodie if Calgary opted to go 4-4 instead of 7-3, which is entirely possible and something I strongly considered for these mocks. Again, that is applying 2021 eligibility rules to 2019. In reality, if the expansion draft was held today, Valimaki and Dube would both be exempt, so Calgary could protect Andersson as the third defenceman (instead of Valimaki) and Mangiapane or Jankowski as the seventh forward (instead of Dube). In that case, Brodie would be the likeliest selection ahead of Jankowski/Mangiapane (whoever was exposed between those two).

 

[Larry Fisher]

What was the fictional deal? I don't believe Seattle would negotiate any kind of deal if they knew Pesce was available. Take Haula + what? Two 1st?

Similar to the deal Vegas made with Minnesota to get Haula and Tuch instead of taking one of the Wild's defencemen. Very similar scenario for Seattle to avoid Pesce, ironically involving Haula again.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Ducks expose their only RD? Why would they expose Manson over Guhle?

I was embracing the rebuild and preferring to lose a roster player coming off a down season rather than a top prospect who could be a core piece for the next decade once the Ducks are contending again.

But you make a good point about handedness, which can also be applied to Edmonton's exposing Larsson as their lone RD. Coaches care about handedness more than GMs, but it would make sense to protect at least one RD rather than three LD or vice versa.

 

[Seanaconda]

Hmm caleb Jones seems like an odd person to protect for the Oilers atm. Like unless he has a crazy season next year

But I'm not too worried about it we prob won't lose anyone I care that much about .

 

[Dead Coyote]

Unless Merkely comes out this year and busts a fat one and puts up 40+ points or similar ppg there is zero reason to keep him over Garland or Hino. Same situation with Fischer. We absolutely still protect Hammer as well. Capo is likely exposed instead.

And honestly, if this year goes anything like last then it'll be quite a debate whether we protect Hill/Kuemper/Raanta.

 

[HabsDood]

No offense but it seems like a mistake to have wasted your time with this as this is pure fantasy land, no information can be gained from an exercise like this. It would be more compelling if you at least tried to project rosters down the line, but even that is still useless at the moment

I agree but it's slow right now, just read it as ''As of now, it might look like this'' and then revisit it next year, could be fun comparing the topic as there might be surprises with protected players. Just a thought.

 

[Seanaconda]

I agree but it's slow right now, just read it as ''As of now, it might look like this'' and then revisit it next year, could be fun comparing the topic as there might be surprises with protected players. Just a thought.

I think it's a fun topic. Last time around now Oilers fans were trying to fit in Benning* on our protection lists cuz he was coming off a good season so it is interesting to see how things change

 

[GeeoffBrown]

I would assume Seattle selects Dube or Bennett ahead of Backlund but likely one of those three ahead of Brodie if Calgary opted to go 4-4 instead of 7-3, which is entirely possible and something I strongly considered for these mocks. Again, that is applying 2021 eligibility rules to 2019. In reality, if the expansion draft was held today, Valimaki and Dube would both be exempt, so Calgary could protect Andersson as the third defenceman (instead of Valimaki) and Mangiapane or Jankowski as the seventh forward (instead of Dube). In that case, Brodie would be the likeliest selection ahead of Jankowski/Mangiapane (whoever was exposed between those two).

Rasmus Andersson is likely to be on the Flames top pairing this year (if they trade TJ Brodie). I would be very shocked if the Flames exposed him to Seattle. I suppose another scenario is if Giordano starts to decline, he could be exposed

 

[Pyrophorus]

Unlikely we hang on to both Muzzin and Barrie next summer. It will be either/or. Dermott will be the third protected defenseman.

Edit: nvm, didn't realize they were basing everything on current rosters.

We will protect Rielly, Dermott and Lindgren.
If they want Barrie or Muzzin, July 1st is there.

We will lose (in order) Bracco, Moore or Engvall

 

[PredsV82]

No way the Preds expose Saros. Rinne will be an expiring UFA and so even if picked he could just resign with the Preds two weeks later.

 

[Buck Naked]

Similar to the deal Vegas made with Minnesota to get Haula and Tuch instead of taking one of the Wild's defencemen. Very similar scenario for Seattle to avoid Pesce, ironically involving Haula again.

Nah, Seattle decline that deal and pick Pesce.

 

[Larry Fisher]

No way the Preds expose Saros. Rinne will be an expiring UFA and so even if picked he could just resign with the Preds two weeks later.

In 2021, yes, but this mock is based on the expansion draft being held today with Seattle starting this coming season (2019-20 instead of 2020-21). That said, it is still possible Saros would be protected over Rinne today based on age and upside and even potential performance/expectations for the season to come.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Nah, Seattle decline that deal and pick Pesce.

Is Pesce better than Dumba? Remember Dumba was exposed by Minnesota, the same way my mock has Pesce exposed by Carolina. To prevent Vegas from selecting Dumba and instead agreeing to select Haula, Minnesota sacrificed Tuch, one of their top prospects as a first-round pick (18th overall in 2014) who was exempt from that expansion draft.

So my comparison would see Carolina offer Ryan Suzuki (28th overall in 2019) to Seattle for agreeing to select Haula rather than Pesce. Seattle gets Suzuki for free and gets Haula, who has appeal as a Vegas expansion veteran, for passing on Pesce. Would Seattle decline that offer and still pick Pesce? Perhaps. Maybe Carolina needs to add another pick (say a third-rounder) as further sweetener since Tuch was taken 10 spots higher than Suzuki and was more established/NHL-ready at the time of the Minnesota-Vegas trade. But I don’t think that value is too far off.

 

[JabbaJabba]

I was embracing the rebuild for Anaheim, protecting players that would be key in 3-5 years as opposed to the present, thus exposing Manson and Kase instead of Guhle and Max Jones. In hindsight and based on feedback, I would probably protect Manson and Kase, but I kept the protected/exposed lists the same for each of these three mocks.

I see. It's just that Guhle is a mystery bag at this point while Manson is a proven top 4 defenseman and I expect him to be that for awhile. Guhle is not that promising even though he probably is the best defenseman prospect the Ducks have at the moment, which isn't saying much when you consider the competitors. Manson just brings something that no one in the group currently has. I think that some of the fans would rather expose Fowler than Manson.

Good thing is that the expansion draft is 2 years away, which should be enough time to what Guhle can bring and if he is worth protecting. It's extremely difficult to do the mocks just because there are so many variables. I think that most of the fans would agree that Henrique is going to be the player that is exposed and used as a bait.

 

[iginlafan77]

We will protect Rielly, Dermott and Lindgren.
If they want Barrie or Muzzin, July 1st is there.

We will lose (in order) Bracco, Moore or Engvall

Hyman?

If the 7 forwards are marner, Matthew's, Tavares, Nylander, kerfoot, kapanen, johnsson

 

[Cane mutiny]

Is Pesce better than Dumba? Remember Dumba was exposed by Minnesota, the same way my mock has Pesce exposed by Carolina. To prevent Vegas from selecting Dumba and instead agreeing to select Haula, Minnesota sacrificed Tuch, one of their top prospects as a first-round pick (18th overall in 2014) who was exempt from that expansion draft.

So my comparison would see Carolina offer Ryan Suzuki (28th overall in 2019) to Seattle for agreeing to select Haula rather than Pesce. Seattle gets Suzuki for free and gets Haula, who has appeal as a Vegas expansion veteran, for passing on Pesce. Would Seattle decline that offer and still pick Pesce? Perhaps. Maybe Carolina needs to add another pick (say a third-rounder) as further sweetener since Tuch was taken 10 spots higher than Suzuki and was more established/NHL-ready at the time of the Minnesota-Vegas trade. But I don’t think that value is too far off.

CAR would not give up a good young centre like Suzuki to protect Pesce when they can just protect him in the first place. No way they don't as he's their 2nd best D. They'd rather expose any other D than Slavin/Pesce. I'd imagine they protect S/P and Bean. Faulk may be gone by then, or consent to a trade in the event he's still there.

Edit: This article looks like a shot in the dark by Fisher

 

[Unsustainable]

That was a tough decision between Pesce and Bean. Pesce is more established in the present, but I'm a big fan of Bean's upside. I also contemplated protecting both Pesce and Bean by going 4-4 (8-1) instead of 7-3, which would have meant exposing Niederreiter, Gauthier and Geekie. In hindsight, I probably go that route, but I stuck with the same protected/exposed lists for all three mocks.

Geekie and Gauthier are prospects, and Gauthier isn’t that good right now. I explained this in the last thread.

 

[ToDavid]

We will protect Rielly, Dermott and Lindgren.
If they want Barrie or Muzzin, July 1st is there.

We will lose (in order) Bracco, Moore or Engvall

Depends on the timing of this hypothetical draft, is it today or is it at the end of this season? I could see Seattle going after a free 1-year rental of Barrie or Muzzin. Their cheap contracts could help them take on cap dumps from other teams in exchange for assets.

Hyman would also be a potential choice. Given his age and shorter contract he's probably not protected.

 

[Woodtkachuk]

based on what we know now there is no way the flames protect kylington over andersson

 

[Pyrophorus]

Hyman?

If the 7 forwards are marner, Matthew's, Tavares, Nylander, kerfoot, kapanen, johnsson

Exposed: Kerfoot
Protected: Hyman.