Season Officially Suspended -- COVID-19/Coronavirus Talk

[SaintLouHaintBlue]

When I say "lots of data that largely agrees," what I mean is that we have numbers from multiple different sources, using multiple different methodologies, covering a significant number of data points, that is generally consistent. I agree that it's easy to pick at any given individual study or source, but as more and more data piles up (through replication and/or alternative methods of analysis), eventually we have a forest to work with instead of just a bunch of individual trees.

Yes, in a fluid situation like a pandemic, it's kind of a requirement to make sound decisions in real time using the most up-to-date information you have. And to be clear, I fully understand that there are a number of complex issues at play here, and I believe that policy makers should be listening to the information that all the relevant stakeholders (scientists, economists, social workers, supply chain experts, etc.) are presenting, and then taking that information and setting the best policies they can for the communities they are responsible for governing. If a person can't do that, then that person shouldn't be governing.

That said, I'm not advocating that people do more than they feel like they can (or should) do. Everyone has limits, and self-care is just as important as caring for the community. Those two things need to be balanced as well. We don't need to exhaust ourselves chasing the perfect number. There is no perfect number, just like there is no perfect policy. Luckily for us, neither is necessary to get through this. We just need to make good use of the best data we currently have available.

I suppose the only thing I would say is - if there truly is a forest (and not just individual trees) of descriptive information, and that information is in the hands of the right people - then I agree.
In this case though...where is that information? If an agency/agencies have a hold of that information, it really does not seem to have been disseminated in a way that isn't patronizing or polarizing.
I'm not the only poster to perceive that it will take real forensics to sift through the data that is available. My point was that it can't be sifted through quickly enough to make a real time policy decision that is ahead of the curve, rather than behind.
The complaints from the initial outbreak...such a long time ago... were that, from the way things were being reported to the general public, no one has any idea what is going on or how serious to take this, and all accessible sources are presenting themselves as untrustworthy.

I mean.. yes - authority figures should have clout, and emergency situations rank has to be pulled. But how exactly does one maintain cooperation - or more importantly, recover it when it is lost - when (such as in my own state), the public is exposed to situations such as: still being allowed to walk into a hardware store during the pandemic (due to hardware stores being classified as essential service), but having limited access to inventory, such as paint, and (hastily categorized) seasonal items?
I can't speak for other states, but what's funny is - in my state at least - the director of the department of health and human services (an appointed, not elected position!) has no background in healthcare.
Instead - a lawyer with a background in finance, education, and resource planning!

https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-gordon-642962103

 

[Ranksu]

Idk, World is such s mess now

Denmark announces cull of 15 million mink over Covid mutation fears

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Have they announced a start date to the season?

 

[Ranksu]

There is 5 different mutation of that mink covid. One form is worst to vaccine doesnt have affect.

 

[Ranksu]

USA:
Total Cases: 10,055,833 (+129,787 today)
Active Cases: 3,424,038
Critical Cases: 18,303
Deaths: 242,203 (+1,221 today)
Recoveries: 6,389,592
Total Tests: 155,141,095
Tests/1M Pop: 467,73

 

[Ted Hoffman]

There is 5 different mutation of that mink covid. One form is worst to vaccine doesnt have affect.

That didn't come out cleanly, so I'll see if I understand it right: are you saying one of the 5 mutations would be resistant to known vaccines being tested?

 

[Ranksu]

That didn't come out cleanly, so I'll see if I understand it right: are you saying one of the 5 mutations would be resistant to known vaccines being tested?

Yes.

Source

Mutationer i minkvirus

Professor: Danmark risikerer at blive nyt Wuhan

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Yes.

Source

Mutationer i minkvirus

Professor: Danmark risikerer at blive nyt Wuhan

One of my huge fears since this thing started is that we have a mutation that goes worse - as in, it's more lethal and more infectious. We've been incredibly lucky with this when it comes to mutations in viruses in the past, because they tend to mutate to something less dangerous (more dangerous + no change in infectiousness = greater chance of the virus not propagating to others because it kills the patient too quickly). At some point, that luck is going to run out and we're going to get a worst-case scenario.

 

[Ranksu]

One of my huge fears since this thing started is that we have a mutation that goes worse - as in, it's more lethal and more infectious. We've been incredibly lucky with this when it comes to mutations in viruses in the past, because they tend to mutate to something less dangerous (more dangerous + no change in infectiousness = greater chance of the virus not propagating to others because it kills the patient too quickly). At some point, that luck is going to run out and we're going to get a worst-case scenario.

So its not that far fetched next transition is pets whom gets virus what can transit to human. Or next crazy things is bird's out wild get infected and spread virus.

 

[Ranksu]

Cluster 5 is the name of that new mutant of sars-cov-2.


SARS-CoV-2 mink-associated variant strain – Denmark

 

[Ranksu]

Doesn't look good.

 

[Quaz]

Doesn't look good.

View attachment 376200

Keep in mind the US numbers in deaths/M are inflated by NJ and NY extremely high numbers due to the nursing home debacle.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Another FUBAR COVID season inbound.

 

[Ranksu]

Finnish team Jokerit which are playing at KHL, they have now over 20 covid cases in their team. They are forced to postponed their next 3-4 games. Ofc they are playing in russia, but I compare to them USA. They both are quite similar. If Finland Liiga teams are struggling with covid, I don't see how you can do it other places too.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Keep in mind the US numbers in deaths/M are inflated by NJ and NY extremely high numbers due to the nursing home debacle.

A LTC facility in my old stomping grounds has lost 14 of ~100 people. Another one is already at 6 of 78 with about half the population not infected (yet) and ~20 of those infected in the hospital. Another one down the road is at something like 15 of 82 with a dozen in the hospital and several others who've "recovered" having moderate to severe impacts. The fact is, old people in confined areas are much more likely to be infected once an infection shows up in the population there, they're more likely to die if infected - and they're more likely to have issues if they're sickened and recover.

Did NY/NJ handle things great? Of course not, but even if you say 60% of those deaths were preventable - a really high figure IMO - we're still around 214K deaths nationwide. I wouldn't spike the football on that number. Not to mention, some of the people who were sickened and recovered are going to have long-term impacts for years to come.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Finnish team Jokerit which are playing at KHL, they have now over 20 covid cases in their team. They are forced to postponed their next 3-4 games. Ofc they are playing in russia, but I compare to them USA. They both are quite similar. If Finland Liiga teams are struggling with covid, I don't see how you can do it other places too.

We're playing '20-21 come hell or high water, and I still think it's a matter of time before a big-name player gets seriously sick over it.

Will it change anything? Cause leagues to stop and give pause? Nope - they're going to plow through, consequences be damned, because ... ha$ $omeone $tumbled on $ome of the rea$on$ why league$ and conference$ are doing thi$ $tuff? I $till haven't figured it out $o far. I'm $ure there'$ a $imple explanation; I $ure wi$h we knew what it wa$.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

We're playing '20-21 come hell or high water, and I still think it's a matter of time before a big-name player gets seriously sick over it.

Will it change anything? Cause leagues to stop and give pause? Nope - they're going to plow through, consequences be damned, because ... ha$ $omeone $tumbled on $ome of the rea$on$ why league$ and conference$ are doing thi$ $tuff? I $till haven't figured it out $o far. I'm $ure there'$ a $imple explanation; I $ure wi$h we knew what it wa$.

I don’t view it any differently than myself going to work or the grocery clerk, through the pandemic. We all need to make money to provide for our families. What the hell is so wrong about trying to make a living? We each decide for ourselves what risks we are willing to take to do that. Guys that do construction, industrial welding, or work on fishing trawlers have a nontrivial risk of serious injury or death from their jobs every day. But they freely make a decision about what compensation makes that risk worthwhile to them.

What’s wrong with hockey players doing the same thing? They can opt out if they don’t want to play. Hockey players have risked permanent injury since as long as the game existed. Playing through a pandemic is just another facet of risk management.

And frankly, an honest view of the risk to well conditioned athletes at the players’ ages will reveal they really DONT have much personal risk from Covid. And the operation of the league impacts a lot of other people’s livelihoods too. The players’ and owners’ decisions trickle down to a lot of subsistence level employees who need to put food on the table one way or another. You might criticize them for HAVING to go work in the arenas or whatever, but it’s not like those people vanish of their job goes on hiatus. They’ll just be scrambling for some other job with its own set of risks, to keep food on the table.

I’m tired of people who have cozy jobs where they can continue to operate from home, post condescension on Twitter all day, and don’t risk hunger or bankruptcy sneering at people who are in crisis trying to make it through this. There’s nothing sinister about the owners wanting to continue to operate their business if they can manage it safely. They proved they could do a hell of a job with the playoff bubble. These guys have their self-interest, sure, but they’re also responsible for the jobs of hundreds of other people too.

 

[Quaz]

A LTC facility in my old stomping grounds has lost 14 of ~100 people. Another one is already at 6 of 78 with about half the population not infected (yet) and ~20 of those infected in the hospital. Another one down the road is at something like 15 of 82 with a dozen in the hospital and several others who've "recovered" having moderate to severe impacts. The fact is, old people in confined areas are much more likely to be infected once an infection shows up in the population there, they're more likely to die if infected - and they're more likely to have issues if they're sickened and recover.

Did NY/NJ handle things great? Of course not, but even if you say 60% of those deaths were preventable - a really high figure IMO - we're still around 214K deaths nationwide. I wouldn't spike the football on that number. Not to mention, some of the people who were sickened and recovered are going to have long-term impacts for years to come.

The US has a much larger population than most countries so the only way you can compare deaths in different countries would be to look at deaths/M. The US is currently at 750, but the numbers from NJ (1872) and NY (1744), which I believe are the highest of any place in the world have caused the US's numbers to be higher. It could be the higher density of population or that they have an older population that caused the numbers to be so high. Also keep in mind that before COVID the US had around 58000 deaths/week of all causes. This would mean that the US would normally have around 1.8M deaths of all causes over the last 8 months without COVID. I'm not trying to downplay this, as many have died, just trying to keep the numbers in perspective.

 

[Ranksu]

Its going to be tough choice when vaccine are available. Hopefully people under health care don't have to take vaccine if we do I really have re-evaluate will I change field. These vaccines are imo too fast produced and hold up 90% against covid-19.

Pfizer and BioNTech Announce Vaccine Candidate Against COVID-19 Achieved Success in First Interim Analysis from Phase 3 Study | Pfizer

 

[Quaz]

Its going to be tough choice when vaccine are available. Hopefully people under health care don't have to take vaccine if we do I really have re-evaluate will I change field. These vaccines are imo too fast produced and hold up 90% against covid-19.

Pfizer and BioNTech Announce Vaccine Candidate Against COVID-19 Achieved Success in First Interim Analysis from Phase 3 Study | Pfizer

I agree with you. There was an article in the Athletic where several agents stated that they think fans will only be allowed to attend games (if they play and have fans back) if they show proof of vaccination.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

The US has a much larger population than most countries so the only way you can compare deaths in different countries would be to look at deaths/M. The US is currently at 750, but the numbers from NJ (1872) and NY (1744), which I believe are the highest of any place in the world have caused the US's numbers to be higher. It could be the higher density of population or that they have an older population that caused the numbers to be so high. Also keep in mind that before COVID the US had around 58000 deaths/week of all causes. This would mean that the US would normally have around 1.8M deaths of all causes over the last 8 months without COVID. I'm not trying to downplay this, as many have died, just trying to keep the numbers in perspective.

There's an entire discussion around # of deaths YTD and death rate and that I don't have the time or energy for. While some of the ~240K who've died might well have died anyway this year, I'd like to think that most of them wouldn't have and that the vast, vast, vast majority should have been preventable and people should have lived years longer - just like I would like to think that the vast, vast majority of deaths that are yet to come are also preventable and those people should have lived years longer.

[Entire macabre thought omitted. Trust me, it goes real dark and kicks all the hornets nests. Repeatedly.]

So much work that's going to look back in hindsight and say, how could we have kept f***ing this up so badly? So many things that are going to look so plainly obvious, that we didn't do for whatever reason - and still won't do now, for ... reasons.

 

[Ranksu]

It take time to accept the facts.

So called experts here were totally wrong about population getting immunity.

Sweden has admitted its coronavirus immunity predictions were wrong as cases soar across the country

 

[Quaz]

There's an entire discussion around # of deaths YTD and death rate and that I don't have the time or energy for. While some of the ~240K who've died might well have died anyway this year, I'd like to think that most of them wouldn't have and that the vast, vast, vast majority should have been preventable and people should have lived years longer - just like I would like to think that the vast, vast majority of deaths that are yet to come are also preventable and those people should have lived years longer.

[Entire macabre thought omitted. Trust me, it goes real dark and kicks all the hornets nests. Repeatedly.]

So much work that's going to look back in hindsight and say, how could we have kept f***ing this up so badly? So many things that are going to look so plainly obvious, that we didn't do for whatever reason - and still won't do now, for ... reasons.

I don’t think the US has handled the pandemic so poorly. Dr Birx stated early on that we were going to see the same number of deaths from this no matter what was done, it was just a matter of spreading them out more over time to keep from overwhelming the hospitals. There are already “experts” saying the first lockdown was a huge mistake that cost many lives from suicide, and people being afraid to go to the hospital to get needed treatment, and now they are looking at locking down the country again. I don’t fully trust that the vaccine they are getting ready to release will be safe. I’m sure all of their testing is with healthy people and they will be rolling this out to the most vulnerable first. I hope that they don’t have issues when this is rolled out and it allows the US to avoid another lock down.

 

[joe galiba]

I agree with you. There was an article in the Athletic where several agents stated that they think fans will only be allowed to attend games (if they play and have fans back) if they show proof of vaccination.

what about those of us that have had the virus?
there would really be no reason to give someone who has had the virus a vaccine to fake the body into thinking it has the virus

has any research been done on the effects of giving someone who has had the virus the vaccine? would it be safe?

depending on how the vaccine is created I could see people who medically wouldn’t be allowed to take it

I think it may possibly be illegal to even ask people to show proof

trying that would open a whole lot of potential issues for them in my opinion (not that anyone actually asked for my opinion)

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I don’t think the US has handled the pandemic so poorly. Dr Birx stated early on that we were going to see the same number of deaths from this no matter what was done, it was just a matter of spreading them out more over time to keep from overwhelming the hospitals. There are already “experts” saying the first lockdown was a huge mistake that cost many lives from suicide, and people being afraid to go to the hospital to get needed treatment, and now they are looking at locking down the country again. I don’t fully trust that the vaccine they are getting ready to release will be safe. I’m sure all of their testing is with healthy people and they will be rolling this out to the most vulnerable first. I hope that they don’t have issues when this is rolled out and it allows the US to avoid another lock down.

She's right in that, presuming the virus didn't get fully contained, we were going to see the same # of deaths and it was a matter of spreading them out over time. But I maintain we could have gotten to by-and-large containment with localized, targeted shutdowns to contain hotspots that popped up.

It goes right back to the spring lockdown being handled piss-poorly. It was lousy communication from the state level (I don't even need to get into the total lack of messaging from the federal level). A whole shitload of things - widespread testing, effective tracing and isolation, on and on - should have been done. People should have been given a constant message explaining the why and the benefits. I'm off to walk shortly, or I could spend 4 hours going on about this. But that failure set up what we're seeing now, where a shutdown really is necessary across parts of the country and it will never happen because of all the negative conclusions drawn from the spring shutdown - meaning, cases will spread and deaths will increase and we'll probably have more deaths because of the full exhaustion of medical resources at both the human level and the physical item level.

If the vaccine rollout has problems, ... well, let's be optimistic about that.