If we keep DeMelo (5 AAV, top priority among UFAs), bridge Perfetti (2.X AAV), and fill the rest of the lineup with ELCs or deals with similar AAVs, we'll have about fit Monahan in at around 3.5 AAV, mostly depending on Perfetti. We would be compliant with a 22-man roster, but the wiggle room would be non-existent. There wouldn't be any improvements to the defense, nor could we get a reliable backup for Helle. You could resolve that by trading an Iafallo or an Appleton, since we already have potential replacements in the A who need to be tested before they become waiver eligible in 25-26. Let's downgrade a pick to dump Iafallo and replace him with Chibrikov - enough space to keep Monahan at 4.5 AAV. There's room for more, but I'd hope we could get a discounted rate here.
We then come across another problem: the following offseason. We'll have a ton of UFAs expiring, which helps, but we'll also have key players needing extensions. Ehlers is a must-keep, and Vilardi will be the only relevant piece left from the Dubois deal - let's keep him too. Samberg needs a raise after stepping into Dillon's shoes in the top 4. Those three could easily warrant 17-18 million a year between them. That would leave us with 18-20 million to do the following:
- fill in the offense (5 spots): 90% of this is promoting Rutger and Lambert, and it's also going to be a cheap fix. If guys like Barron and Namestnikov are being kept, this probably costs 6-7 million in total.
- sort out the backup situation: say 2 million for a Brossoit-esque backup, assuming one is available.
- rebuilding the defense: this is the shitty part. My calculation only includes the top pairing of Morrissey and Demelo + Samberg. We're going to need at least one top 4 guy in there, and hopefully someone to do work on the third pairing as well. Salomonsson could be one of the four, but will the team thing he's ready to go at 21? They sure haven't for other D prospects. Let's estimate that this costs us 8 million split between four guys, two of them being ELC types (4+2+1+1 AAV).
By relying on several prospects and optimising a little, we'll survive that offseason too. The team should remain pretty competitive, and if the cap keeps going up, we could end up with some room to play with. However, the defense will likely become worse for the second year in a row, and chances are that a 4 AAV defenseman isn't going to be capable of handling top 4 minutes in 2025.
The following offseason is another nightmare in the making: Connor, Lowry (almost a guaranteed overpayment coming up), Perfetti + a ton of ELCs expiring at once, and absolutely nothing else is coming off the books. This would be the first moment where extending Monahan starts to complicate matters: we're likely unable to get him on a two-year deal, so I'd imagine that Chevy and co. are going to see this as one of the more serious roadblocks between us and the extension. Depending on how the RFAs progress over the years, this could end up being the logical spot to part ways with Connor - whether the org wants to do it or not, that remains to be seen. If Monahan was the solution at 2C, it could even end up being a good tradeoff in the long run.
