Hammer Time
Registered User
- May 3, 2011
- 3,957
- 10
One of the issues that is often cited with Corsi and Fenwick is that teams usually take lower quality shots when they are ahead ("throwing everything at the net"), and higher quality shots when they are behind ("taking advantage of pinching opponents"). (
Two years ago, Eric Tulsky at the Flyers blog posted a formula to adjust Fenwick to account for the different amounts of time that a team spends ahead, tied, or behind in a game. The formula can be found here with evidence that it has higher R-squared (higher reliability) and improves the predictive power of Fenwick for future regular season wins : http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2012/1/23/2722089/score-adjusted-fenwick
Last year I made a post on this board showing that adjusting Fenwick for score effects also improves its performance as a predictor of playoff wins. So I decided to run the score effects adjustment formula for this season's Fenwick numbers.
Los Angeles is in first place narrowly ahead of Chicago (this is exactly the same as last year). The Sharks, Bruins, and Blues round out the top 5. This fits with the common wisdom that Boston is the main contender in the East while there are several in the West.
10 of the top 11 teams are in the playoffs (NJ at 6th is the exception, low shooting percentage as usual plus Brodeur ...), 9 of the bottom 11 teams are out of the playoffs (COL, MTL are exceptions ... great goaltending being the reason).
Two years ago, Eric Tulsky at the Flyers blog posted a formula to adjust Fenwick to account for the different amounts of time that a team spends ahead, tied, or behind in a game. The formula can be found here with evidence that it has higher R-squared (higher reliability) and improves the predictive power of Fenwick for future regular season wins : http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2012/1/23/2722089/score-adjusted-fenwick
Last year I made a post on this board showing that adjusting Fenwick for score effects also improves its performance as a predictor of playoff wins. So I decided to run the score effects adjustment formula for this season's Fenwick numbers.
Los Angeles is in first place narrowly ahead of Chicago (this is exactly the same as last year). The Sharks, Bruins, and Blues round out the top 5. This fits with the common wisdom that Boston is the main contender in the East while there are several in the West.
10 of the top 11 teams are in the playoffs (NJ at 6th is the exception, low shooting percentage as usual plus Brodeur ...), 9 of the bottom 11 teams are out of the playoffs (COL, MTL are exceptions ... great goaltending being the reason).
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