Leaves 13.1M in cap space to extend Fabbri, Barbashev, Sundqvist, Edmundson, and Binnington. I think the Blues will have to make a move to fit everyone.
Just as an example, the following would put us over the cap, at least according to CapFriendly.
Fabbri - 1.5M
Barbashev - 2M
Sundqvist - 3M
Edmundson - 3.5M
Binnington - 5M
I don't see us having to make a move and all of those look high to me.
Fabbri is absolutely not getting $1.5 mil. His qualifying offer is a little less than $1 mil and he had a poor season. There is no way that his stock has somehow risen $500k and is equal to Sanford, who just had 20 points in 60 games (Fabbri had 6 points in 32 games and was noticeably worse off the puck than Sanford was). There is just no reason for Fabbri to get more than $ 1 mil. Especially if him getting more than that necessitates a trade of someone else.
Barby doesn't have arbitration rights. He might (maybe) get $2 mil AAV on a 2 or 3 year deal, but absolutely isn't getting that money if it also requires us to trade someone to fit it in. I think Barby is a better player than Sanford, but they were each on pace for 26 points through 80 games. Sanford has better possession and expected goal differential stats (although I think that is largely due to usage) and had arbitration rights. Those are absolutely part of the reason he got this contract and the 2 year term instead of 1 nudged up the AAV. If we hit a point where we are looking at a 1 year bargain deal for Barby or moving a guy to give him 2 years, we're going to give him the 1 year deal.
Sunny shouldn't get $3 mil. In a vacuum, he is probably worth that, but contracts aren't formed in a vacuum. Unfortunately for him, 30 point guys who contribute a boatload in other ways have a difficult time quantifying that to an arbitrator that doesn't watch any video footage of a player. Last summer, Chris Tierny and the Sharks avoided arbitration with a 2 year deal at a $2.937 AAV. He had 40 points the year before and 23 points the year before that. He also had 9 points as a rookie on their run to the Cup Final. I don't think you can make a case that Sunny's resume is better than Tierney's was. Also last summer, Adam Lowry got a 3 year deal before arbitration at $2.9 mil per year. He posted 21 points in 45 games in 2017/18 (38 point pace) and posted 29 points the year before. Brandon Tanev's 18 points through 61 games and decent playoff showing in 2017/18 earned him a $1.15 mil 1 year deal right before arbitration last summer. 25 points in 72 games in 2017/18 earned Jankowski a 2 year deal at $1.675 mil before arbitration last summer. Matt Nieto got two years at $1.975 per year after a 26 point season in 2017/18. He also had three 10 goal seasons under his belt by that point. Janmark got $2.3 mil on a 1 year deal after a 34 point season (which was preceded by a 29 point rookie year). Sunny should come in at the middle or perhaps upper end of this group, but his AAV should start with a 2.
I don't see how Eddy gets a $500k raise unless we buy a few years. I don't see why the Blues would take the risk of buying term if that also meant having to trade a guy to make the cap work. He is another guy whose strengths don't translate well to an arbitration hearing, he had a worse season than the one before, was healthy scratched twice in the Final and has never hit 70 games in his career. It wouldn't surprise me for an arbitrator to give him a pay cut rather than a raise (**arbitrator could go as low as $2.55 mil**).
I think $5 mil is the upper limit of what Binny could get. I don't think it is very likely he reaches that upper limit, but I've had lengthy discussions in other threads about that and don't want to derail this thread.
For all of those reasons, I think the Blues can easily shave the $1.2 mil total from all of those estimates that would be needed to fit everyone (plus Kyrou or MacMac) on the 23 man roster below the $81.5 mil cap.
**Edit to address my comment that an arbitrator could award a contract as low as $2.55 mil: Actually, I don't think this amount is true. I would have sworn that an arbitrator's decision could be no lower than 85% of the player's existing salary, but I can't actually find that language in the CBA. Since a player's qualifying offer expires before arbitration, I don't think the year's previous salary is any kind of limit to what an arbitrator can and can't award. If I was in fact mistake about this, Eddy's contract negotiation is going to be super interesting if he doesn't sign his QO by July 15.