Speculation: Sam Reinhart's next deal?

[Nucks2001]

With Nylander about to get 11.5M those numbers seem so unrealistic

To stay in Florida will be tough for him to ask more than Barkov/Tkachuk

That’s why I was saying the sweet spot is probably between 7.5-8.5. Not sure what he will demand or if Florida just wants to offer him a bag. I think he gets between 7.5-8.5 though, which is a STEAL for him.

Toronto will continue to spend their ways into 1st and 2nd round exits.

 

[Walksss]

That’s why I was saying the sweet spot is probably between 7.5-8.5. Not sure what he will demand or if Florida just wants to offer him a bag. I think he gets between 7.5-8.5 though, which is a STEAL for him.

Toronto will continue to spend their ways into 1st and 2nd round exits.

Come on man, all your credibility was instantly evaporated when you typed $7.5, that can't even be lol'ed away. Lindholm just rejected 9x8 over in Calgary and he's nowhere near this guy's level.

Willy is apparently signing 11.5x8 in the morning, if that happens this thread is gonna have to join reality. The cap is rising and players expect to be compensated accordingly.

**Nobody** is gonna leave 4 million per year on the table for 8 years not even if south Florida was heaven on earth. I'm sure his family will be fine living there after the 8 years is up while being $32 million dollars richer.

He may take a discount to stay in Florida but that kind of money changes people's minds and quickly. Anyways $7.5 man? lololololol.

 

[Nucks2001]

Come on man, all your credibility was instantly evaporated when you typed $7.5, that can't even be lol'ed away. Lindholm just rejected 9x8 over in Calgary and he's nowhere near this guy's level.

Willy is apparently signing 11.5x8 in the morning, if that happens this thread is gonna have to join reality. The cap is rising and players expect to be compensated accordingly.

**Nobody** is gonna leave 4 million per year on the table for 8 years not even if south Florida was heaven on earth. I'm sure his family will be fine living there after the 8 years is up while being $32 million dollars richer.

He may take a discount to stay in Florida but that kind of money changes people's minds and quickly. Anyways $7.5 man? lololololol.

With Florida, 7.5-8.5 is perfectly reasonable. Reinhart can’t command more than Barkov and Tkachuk. Unless the Panthers wanna throw a bag at Reinhart, I don’t see how they offer him 10mil+. I could see him approaching 9mill.

I don’t argue that he could get more elsewhere, just strictly from an extension standpoint.

 

[Captain Mountain]

With Florida, 7.5-8.5 is perfectly reasonable. Reinhart can’t command more than Barkov and Tkachuk. Unless the Panthers wanna throw a bag at Reinhart, I don’t see how they offer him 10mil+. I could see him approaching 9mill.

I don’t argue that he could get more elsewhere, just strictly from an extension standpoint.

If we're talking just this season, then Reinhart can command more than Tkachuk (and arguably Barkov, but its not a strong argument or one I'd make).

Reinhart leads Florida in points, is 8th in Points and 10th in P/GP. He's a pending UFA in what will in all likelihood be the first offseason with a substantial cap increase since 2018. The low end of your range is a 0.5% increase in percentage of the cap from his last contract, which would make sense if his 2022-2023 season was closer the the peak than the valley of his performance on his previous contract.

I suspect Florida can (and will) re-sign Reinhart for less than he could get on the open market, but I think people don't remember what off-seasons with rising caps look like. Reinhart may be willing to leave money on the table to stay in Florida, but something like 3-4mil a year x8 is a tall ask.

 

[LudwigVonKarlsson]

Probably close to Nylander, but 1-2M less because of tax free state

 

[WTFMAN99]

I'm guessing 8.5 x 8

 

[TGWL]

EDIT: Wrong thread.

 

[Nucks2001]

If we're talking just this season, then Reinhart can command more than Tkachuk (and arguably Barkov, but its not a strong argument or one I'd make).

Reinhart leads Florida in points, is 8th in Points and 10th in P/GP. He's a pending UFA in what will in all likelihood be the first offseason with a substantial cap increase since 2018. The low end of your range is a 0.5% increase in percentage of the cap from his last contract, which would make sense if his 2022-2023 season was closer the the peak than the valley of his performance on his previous contract.

I suspect Florida can (and will) re-sign Reinhart for less than he could get on the open market, but I think people don't remember what off-seasons with rising caps look like. Reinhart may be willing to leave money on the table to stay in Florida, but something like 3-4mil a year x8 is a tall ask.

Agreed. Some lunatic of a team may offer him 11mill but in reality that is a contract that is not worth his actual value or one that will age well. Not sure why some users are giving me backlash for a contract that is reasonable.

I'm guessing 8.5 x 8

Perfectly reasonable contract

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Between 9-9.5 on an 8 year deal. Possibly he could get more on the open market but teams would have to go 10+ AAV to beat the overall value Panthers can offer with 8 years and also guys just want to stay in Florida.

It’ll be interesting to see how they re-sign all of Reinhart, Forsling, Montour, Lundell. I don’t think there’s much risk of anyone offering 10+ to Reinhart but I could see teams driving up the prices on their two UFA dmen.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Agreed. Some lunatic of a team may offer him 11mill but in reality that is a contract that is not worth his actual value or one that will age well. Not sure why some users are giving me backlash for a contract that is reasonable.


Perfectly reasonable contract

Do you agree? because you're getting backlash because its not "reasonable" for the UFA market, its reasonable for the Panthers. Even focusing on your high-end estimate would mean Reinhart giving the kind of UFA discount we've seen maybe once in the last decade. Which he may, but Florida has a delicate dance to manage this offseason. And Reinhart's actual value this season is arguably more than 11 mil, even if it seems like an outlier.

Very few long term UFA contracts age well. Expecting a UFA contract to be lower (consider aging curves and risks) misses why UFA contracts get so high - teams get to add high-end talent without giving up trade assets. With a flat cap, cap space was valuable enough for teams to show more restraint and apply more pressure on UFAs/soon-to-be UFAs. But there will be teams drowning in cap space this offseason and in a position to spend money.

 

[Ryuji Yamazaki]

The way he’s playing, we’re screwed. Hopefully he’ll take an 8x8 deal

 

[I am not exposed]

Is getting more expensive each game.

 

[iam76]

Is getting more expensive each game.

We only ice two scoring lines in this system.. pay him and call it a day

 

[Gentle Man]

Hope he takes a discount to stay with our core 8

 

[Two4Fighting]

This seems the betting favorite for outcome to me.

- I think Sam signs a slightly under market value deal that keeps the Panthers “markers” intact.
- I think Forsling signs long-term at a value that maybe under appreciates his importance simply because the offensive/PP numbers aren’t there.
- Montour walks.
- Lundell bridge…he’s not done anything yet that should break the bank but he will probably want a second crack at the apple in two or three years.
- And you try to make some sort of “hockey trade” with Ekblad that maybe doesn’t entirely move his salary but exchanges it for another complimentary piece at lesser cost. I still think for all the concerns about injury and regression and AAV - he’s still gonna have value on the market.

I know that still leaves things tight but it seems do-able.

Ekblad seems the most likely to be traded, his long term injuries are an issue, great player, no doubt.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Hope he takes a discount to stay with our core 8

Guarenteed he will take a discount

 

[bossram]

With more contract comparables coming up (e.g. Nylander just signing) and the reality that we're in a new, growing cap paradigm, AAVs for high-end players will be skyrocketing.

Reinhart is looking $10M on the open market now.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

If he tries using nylander as a comparable, he could squeeze around the same out, probably a bit less like 10ish

If florida actually has a proper internal cap structure, then 9-9.5 is the max he should make. Under Barkov and tkachuk

 

[ElPrimeTime]

He probably gets $9M over 8, but my immediate thought goes to "Hope he doesn't go all Jeff Skinner on the Panthers."

Their situations seems awfully similar. Similar age, career year before UFA. Mind you, Skinner seems to have returned to form so it could work out in the end.

 

[BKarchitect]

He probably gets $9M over 8, but my immediate thought goes to "Hope he doesn't go all Jeff Skinner on the Panthers."

Their situations seems awfully similar. Similar age, career year before UFA. Mind you, Skinner seems to have returned to form so it could work out in the end.

Scoring may be similar but Skinner is a one-trick pony. The floor on Reinhart is much higher even if/when production tapers off during the life of an 8 year deal.

The ecosystem the Panthers have created just seems much better too for Reinhart to continue to thrive, if he stays.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Scoring may be similar but Skinner is a one-trick pony. The floor on Reinhart is much higher even if/when production tapers off during the life of an 8 year deal.

The ecosystem the Panthers have created just seems much better too for Reinhart to continue to thrive, if he stays.

Rumor is Reinhart just built a house in Florida, so we'll see.

 

[34]

$10M AAV you would think.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

He probably gets $9M over 8, but my immediate thought goes to "Hope he doesn't go all Jeff Skinner on the Panthers."

Their situations seems awfully similar. Similar age, career year before UFA. Mind you, Skinner seems to have returned to form so it could work out in the end.

Reinhart plays a way better all around game.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

Reinhart plays a way better all around game.

Yeah, I'm not saying the two are the same, just that the situations are eerily similar. The 8/$9M makes sense to me, slightly less than Tkachuk.

 

[Stephen]

If he tries using nylander as a comparable, he could squeeze around the same out, probably a bit less like 10ish

If florida actually has a proper internal cap structure, then 9-9.5 is the max he should make. Under Barkov and tkachuk

If push came to shove and Reinhart wanted his money, there's no reason why Matthew Tkachuk is guy setting the bar for internal cap structure at $9.5 million. Barkov and Bobrovsky already both make $10 million.