Confirmed with Link: Ryan Mcleod Re-Signed $2.1 million AAV x 2 Years, Avoids Arbitration Hearing

[duul]

I’ll take that bet.

Foegele will outpace Kostin in points per 60 at 5v5 (or ES)

The Dominance you seem to think Kostin displayed boils down to 1-2 pts over the year with the amount these guys play.

I’ll take Foegele in a contract year over Kostin who is highly unlikely to replicate his 20% shooting, especially going from the highest scoring team in the league to the 24th highest scoring team.

You’re gonna love your avatar.

Done. Lol.

 

[tiger_80]

Done. Lol.

Foegele will probably go Kostin's way at the end of his contract. So stop quarelling, kids)))

 

[Fourier]

Kostin was third on the entire team in goals per 60 at evens, lmao. He was bound to break out with more minutes.

The problem is that per 60 stats tend to be very unreliable as a predictive measure of a player's potential when the minutes increase and when the role changes. There is no real reason to believe that Kostin's g/60 rate would be maintained if his minutes doubled or if he was asked to play a more central role. Typically it does not happen as pts and goals are definitely not a linear function of TOI. A players role also has a big impact on such things. A guy can have a decent scoring rate as a fourth liner playing against third pairing defensemen and other fourth liners, but do nothing if moved up the ladder.

Last year Connor McDavid was 20th in the league in pts/60 amongst players who played 500+ minutes. Draisaitl was 40th. Jeff Skinner was second. In goals/60 Jared McCann led the whole league.

I actually think that Kositin has the tools to score goals in this league. But the evidence you are quoting is not really all that compelling from a statistical perspective.

 

[joestevens29]

The problem is that per 60 stats tend to be very unreliable as a predictive measure of a player's potential when the minutes increase and when the role changes. There is no real reason to believe that Kostin's g/60 rate would be maintained if his minutes doubled or if he was asked to play a more central role. Typically it does not happen as pts and goals are definitely not a linear function of TOI. A players role also has a big impact on such things. A guy can have a decent scoring rate as a fourth liner playing against third pairing defensemen and other fourth liners, but do nothing if moved up the ladder.

Last year Connor McDavid was 20th in the league in pts/60 amongst players who played 500+ minutes. Draisaitl was 40th. Jeff Skinner was second. In goals/60 Jared McCann led the whole league.

I actually think that Kositin has the tools to score goals in this league. But the evidence you are quoting is not really all that compelling from a statistical perspective.

The good old David Clarkson rule

 

[duul]

The problem is that per 60 stats tend to be very unreliable as a predictive measure of a player's potential when the minutes increase and when the role changes. There is no real reason to believe that Kostin's g/60 rate would be maintained if his minutes doubled or if he was asked to play a more central role. Typically it does not happen as pts and goals are definitely not a linear function of TOI. A players role also has a big impact on such things. A guy can have a decent scoring rate as a fourth liner playing against third pairing defensemen and other fourth liners, but do nothing if moved up the ladder.

Last year Connor McDavid was 20th in the league in pts/60 amongst players who played 500+ minutes. Draisaitl was 40th. Jeff Skinner was second. In goals/60 Jared McCann led the whole league.

I actually think that Kositin has the tools to score goals in this league. But the evidence you are quoting is not really all that compelling from a statistical perspective.

I agree with what you are writing, and I never claimed that Kostin would put up 50 with Draisaitl minutes. Only suggesting that he would supplant a Foegele quite easily with a bit more experience and increased minutes. Really you watch the two play the sport and I'd say he is already ahead, only missing the coaches trust being a fresh player to the team and new to the league as well.

 

[Fourier]

I agree with what you are writing, and I never claimed that Kostin would put up 50 with Draisaitl minutes. Only suggesting that he would supplant a Foegele quite easily with a bit more experience and increased minutes. Really you watch the two play the sport and I'd say he is already ahead, only missing the coaches trust being a fresh player to the team and new to the league as well.

I am already on record as saying that I would have been content with Kostin over Foegele and banking the remaining cap space. That said I am not sure I would say that Kostin is ahead of Foegele. His game is still pretty raw and he can be undisciplined. Hence the coaches trust. But it is also the case that Foegele may not be around after this year. The Oilers will probably want to use that money to upgrade somewhere else.

 

[Drivesaitl]

"Kostin could realistically play anywhere on our left side"... considering we've had complete junk on our wings for multiple years in a row, I'm going to go with, no, he couldn't.

Playoff production in an irrelevant sample size and "intangibles" don't do much for me. They don't trump one guy getting 2x the minutes and more situations. Rest is just random character arguments which is your opinion. My opinion is that Kostin likes to take stupid penalties and we get enough of that from kane.

This is unfounded criticism. The vast majority of Kostin penalty mins is matching minutes being that he's a fighter and instigator. Additionally Kostin DREW more penalty minutes than he took. There goes that concern.

Not sure what causes people to deep dive imagining problems with Kostin and coming up with penalties as the thing to land on. its been debunked several times.

Of course you stated its your opinion but if expressing concerns about the player why not find a valid concern?

Kostin played limited minutes and was scratched games because his coach didn't care for what he added. The same coach that had trouble with player usage, matching, and not identifying which players were struggling or going.

Theres also no demonstration in your post of wny Kostin couldn't have played more minutes.

 

[Drivesaitl]

You stated Kostin was dominating in points per 60, go ahead and say you meant at es instead of 5v5 but either way there was no dominating, it was basically a wash with foegele even ahead at 5v5.

Besides if the best player in the world wants you to keep a guy around it’s probably a good idea to try and do that. I won’t be shocked when Foegle rewards his captain and managements faith with a career year this season.

Klim was physical and had some good sound bites but given the cap situation I don’t think it would be smart to take a multi year multi million gamble on a guy who’s had a good 50 game stretch while shooting 20%. It was a good pump and dump, found money that Holland turned into probably the most valuable asset currently, cap space.

Foegele has had the support of Connor the whole time. He's possibly here through such support. Foegele hasn't come close to covering the bet on what he would bring here.

lol that we're still waiting for Foegele to reward the captain or team with a career year albeit wouldn't be hard for him to get one given his meager career. Foegele is what Carolina fans said he would be. A player that you like for maybe 20 games a season and he's not bringing it or not burying chances the rest.

 

[Drivesaitl]

When talking about bottom six forwards who don't play a ton of minutes I wonder how much one call like this can effect a player's goals/60.

Yeah pretty sure a PP goal would have no effect whatsoever on a players EV/60min stats which was what people were discussing in the thread. Also curious Foegele was on the PP when Kostin has among the best shots on the entire team and would have been good to see there once in awhile at least on 2nd unit.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Foegele has had the support of Connor the whole time. He's possibly here through such support. Foegele hasn't come close to covering the bet on what he would bring here.

lol that we're still waiting for Foegele to reward the captain or team with a career year albeit wouldn't be hard for him to get one given his meager career. Foegele is what Carolina fans said he would be. A player that you like for maybe 20 games a season and he's not bringing it or not burying chances the rest.

Yeah I’m not expecting him to go off for 60 pts but I’m betting he’ll be a little extra motivated in a contract year and he’ll get a bit more luck and an outlier bump in S%

Wouldn’t it be so Oilers for a guy they took a gamble on having untapped upside with a 3 year deal would show a little more in the last year before UFA.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yeah I’m not expecting him to go off for 60 pts but I’m betting he’ll be a little extra motivated in a contract year and he’ll get a bit more luck and an outlier bump in S%

Wouldn’t it be so Oilers for a guy they took a gamble on having untapped upside with a 3 year deal would show a little more in the last year before UFA.

Yeah. Gotcha on that. I kind of think Foegele will be more motivated by this being a contract year but to me that says good and bad about him. Really I expected him to be a bit more hard nosed player around here and good at both ends of the ice. A player like Bjugstad as well underlined Foegele shortcomings. What bugs me with the player is there are no real intangibles with Foegele. Sure he does some pk but not even particularly good at it.

 

[tiger_80]

The good old David Clarkson rule

Is he still getting paid by the Leafs?))

 

[Sheikyerbouti]

Theres also no demonstration in your post of wny Kostin couldn't have played more minutes.

He blew the zone like a 50 goal scorer while still on his elc and not scoring 50 goals?

I would have kept him over both mcleod and foegele because he proved he is a big game player but facts are facts, his commitment to 2 way play kept him out of the nhl and he wasn't worth 2 million to a team that doesn't have problems scoring goals.

 

[Drivesaitl]

He blew the zone like a 50 goal scorer while still on his elc and not scoring 50 goals?

I would have kept him over both mcleod and foegele because he proved he is a big game player but facts are facts, his commitment to 2 way play kept him out of the nhl and he wasn't worth 2 million to a team that doesn't have problems scoring goals.

These are not facts. Its more made up in your eyes.

Kostin had extremely low GA numbers and outscored like crazy given his minutes. One would think a one way player would get scored against more commonly. It wasn't the case.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Kostin had the lowest offensive zone/faceoff start % at 5v5 among all Oilers (defense and forwards) in the playoffs and still came out ahead in GF%.... so he was obviously not a liability defensively out there.

He actually did very well indeed given his pretty brutal zone start usage. A couple more Kostin level players in the playoffs and the team may have gotten by Vegas in fact.

 

[duul]

Kostin had the lowest offensive zone/faceoff start % at 5v5 among all Oilers (defense and forwards) in the playoffs and still came out ahead in GF%.... so he was obviously not a liability defensively out there.

He actually did very well indeed given his pretty brutal zone start usage. A couple more Kostin level players in the playoffs and the team may have gotten by Vegas in fact.

I'm also of the opinion that a winger's GF% is far more reliant on his teammates than say a centre's defensive responsibility in the defensive zone.

For the guy a few posts above thinking Kostin isn't going to live up to his 2 mil a year salary, do you realize how low the bar is? He would have to be a replacement level player essentially. Aaaanyway.

Sad we lost Kostin, especially since 50 guys got signed for cheaper than McLeod who are just as effective if not moreso. The idea to qualify him, in hindsight, was a poor decision.

 

[Bank Shot]

Kostin had the lowest offensive zone/faceoff start % at 5v5 among all Oilers (defense and forwards) in the playoffs and still came out ahead in GF%.... so he was obviously not a liability defensively out there.

He actually did very well indeed given his pretty brutal zone start usage. A couple more Kostin level players in the playoffs and the team may have gotten by Vegas in fact.

His underlying numbers were crap though.

His shooting % numbers were through the roof.

History says that he will come back to earth this season. We will know in a few months.

 

[nexttothemoon]

His underlying numbers were crap though.

His shooting % numbers were through the roof.

History says that he will come back to earth this season. We will know in a few months.

What kind of "underlying numbers"?

Don't just throw random words out and not back them up with figures to at least show some context.


Playoffs at 5v5:

Offensive start% 29.41% (lowest on the team)

Offensive zone faceoff% 27.45% (lowest on the team)

Corsi% 51.55%... above water and considering his zone usage... solid number.

Fenwick% 48.74%... slightly below water but again considering his zone usage.. not a bad result.

Shot% 44.05%... again this is pretty much expected with his zone usage. Not a terrible result.

Scoring chances% 55.26%... shows that while he was on the ice the team out chanced the opposition.. not something you'd expect if he was that terrible defensively.

High danger chances% 50.00%... again not a bad number considering he had a grand total of 14 offensive zone faceoffs vs 37 defensive zone faceoffs in the entire playoffs. That's objectively pretty slanted zone starts if anyone is being non-biased.


Bjugstad also had sub 50% numbers in all these categories as well... and he had very tough zone usage as well.... offensive zone start 38.24% and offensive zone faceoff % 32.14.

These players weren't getting any prime offensive time and they still managed to pot 3 goals each at evens... outscoring everyone at evens not named Leon Draisaitl.

It's a GOOD THING to be able to step up and perform well under pressure and actually contribute offensively... and that's what both Kostin and Bjugstad did under tough circumstances with the zone starts and minutes they had.

As an aside... Bjugstad and Kostin were 2nd and 3rd respectively on the entire team in hits which was pretty impressive given the minutes they played.



RNH 160 minutes at 5v5 1 goal
Kane 208 minutes at 5v5 1 goal (yes I realize he was still recovering from injury which helps explain some of that underperformance)
Yamo 159 minutes at 5v5 1 goal
Hyman 176 minutes at 5v5 1 goal

These were top 6 players getting time playing with McDrai and they were collectively outscored by Bjugstad and Kostin. They had tougher comp as well so that's context as well... but you don't take away the 6 goals that Kostin/Bjugstad scored just because you say they were "lucky" and shot well... umm that's the point of the playoffs... the players are supposed to step up and play well and that's the reason a team moves on... overachieving when it counts the most. Not enough Oilers actually did that and that's a big part of the reason why their journey ended in the 2nd round.


Let's say even 2 or 3 of RNH/Kane/Yamo/Hyman would have each potted a couple extra goals like Kostin/Bjugstad at 5v5... the Oilers likely would have moved on instead of going down in 6 like they did.



Kostin is gone sure and we all move on... but it's revisionist and biased to say he sucked defensively and got "lucky". The stats don't support that he sucked defensively and his goals count just as much as anyone else who scored goals. It's safe to say others needed to step up and be a little "luckier" as well in the minutes they played (in some cases 70/80/100 more minutes at 5v5 than the 89 minutes Kostin got at 5v5).

 

[Bank Shot]

What kind of "underlying numbers"?

Don't just throw random words out and not back them up with figures to at least show some context.


Playoffs at 5v5:

Offensive start% 29.41% (lowest on the team)

Offensive zone faceoff% 27.45% (lowest on the team)

Corsi% 51.55%... above water and considering his zone usage... solid number.

Fenwick% 48.74%... slightly below water but again considering his zone usage.. not a bad result.

Shot% 44.05%... again this is pretty much expected with his zone usage. Not a terrible result.

Scoring chances% 55.26%... shows that while he was on the ice the team out chanced the opposition.. not something you'd expect if he was that terrible defensively.

High danger chances% 50.00%... again not a bad number considering he had a grand total of 14 offensive zone faceoffs vs 37 defensive zone faceoffs in the entire playoffs. That's objectively pretty slanted zone starts if anyone is being non-biased.


Bjugstad also had sub 50% numbers in all these categories as well... and he had very tough zone usage as well.... offensive zone start 38.24% and offensive zone faceoff % 32.14.

These players weren't getting any prime offensive time and they still managed to pot 3 goals each at evens... outscoring everyone at evens not named Leon Draisaitl.

It's a GOOD THING to be able to step up and perform well under pressure and actually contribute offensively... and that's what both Kostin and Bjugstad did under tough circumstances with the zone starts and minutes they had.

As an aside... Bjugstad and Kostin were 2nd and 3rd respectively on the entire team in hits which was pretty impressive given the minutes they played.



RNH 160 minutes at 5v5 1 goal
Kane 208 minutes at 5v5 1 goal (yes I realize he was still recovering from injury which helps explain some of that underperformance)
Yamo 159 minutes at 5v5 1 goal
Hyman 176 minutes at 5v5 1 goal

These were top 6 players getting time playing with McDrai and they were collectively outscored by Bjugstad and Kostin. They had tougher comp as well so that's context as well... but you don't take away the 6 goals that Kostin/Bjugstad scored just because you say they were "lucky" and shot well... umm that's the point of the playoffs... the players are supposed to step up and play well and that's the reason a team moves on... overachieving when it counts the most. Not enough Oilers actually did that and that's a big part of the reason why their journey ended in the 2nd round.


Let's say even 2 or 3 of RNH/Kane/Yamo/Hyman would have each potted a couple extra goals like Kostin/Bjugstad at 5v5... the Oilers likely would have moved on instead of going down in 6 like they did.



Kostin is gone sure and we all move on... but it's revisionist and biased to say he sucked defensively and got "lucky". The stats don't support that he sucked defensively and his goals count just as much as anyone else who scored goals. It's safe to say others needed to step up and be a little "luckier" as well in the minutes they played (in some cases 70/80/100 more minutes at 5v5 than the 89 minutes Kostin got at 5v5).

Playoffs are a such a small sample size, but during the playoffs his on-ice shooting % was 16%! His PDO was 1.077. Those numbers scream unsustainable.

Guys that get paid for PDO are generally regrettable contracts.

Let's look at the almost 60 games Kostin played in the regular season. I'll compare him to Oilers that played over 200 minutes 5v5.

Corsi - 21 out of 24
Fenwick- 22 out of 24
Shot share- 19 out of 24
Goals for %- 5 out of 24
Expected goals for%- 24 out of 24
Scoring chances for%- 23 out of 24
High Danger Chances for- 23 out of 24
On ice shooting %- 3 out of 24
On ice save % - 6 out of 24

The results clearly don't line up with the numbers that typically lead to results.

Nothing revisionist about saying Kostin was riding lady luck. All the numbers line up that way.

Bryan Bickell once scored 17 points in 23 playoff games. He never came close to those numbers ever again.

I had fun watching Kostin and it would have been nice to sign him, but I can't think of a guy currently on the roster that I would want to dump to make space for Kostin.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Playoffs are a such a small sample size, but during the playoffs his on-ice shooting % was 16%! His PDO was 1.077. Those numbers scream unsustainable.

Guys that get paid for PDO are generally regrettable contracts.

Let's look at the almost 60 games Kostin played in the regular season. I'll compare him to Oilers that played over 200 minutes 5v5.

Corsi - 21 out of 24
Fenwick- 22 out of 24
Shot share- 19 out of 24
Goals for %- 5 out of 24
Expected goals for%- 24 out of 24
Scoring chances for%- 23 out of 24
High Danger Chances for- 23 out of 24
On ice shooting %- 3 out of 24
On ice save % - 6 out of 24

The results clearly don't line up with the numbers that typically lead to results.

Nothing revisionist about saying Kostin was riding lady luck. All the numbers line up that way.

Bryan Bickell once scored 17 points in 23 playoff games. He never came close to those numbers ever again.

I had fun watching Kostin and it would have been nice to sign him, but I can't think of a guy currently on the roster that I would want to dump to make space for Kostin.

The guy can shoot the puck and is a sniper when given the opportunity (and even in limited minutes makes the most of the time he's given). The basic complaints against him seem to be that his shot is "lucky". The fact is that he just has a decent shot and makes his time on the ice better than it should be because of it.

Corsi% stats... JP and Holloway had better regular season Corsi stats than Kostin as well... and were they better than Kostin last season?... nope.

Fenwick% stats... same story... if you look at the regular season numbers... Holloway and JP were head and shoulders over guys like Janmark and Kostin... in fact going by those stats... Janmark was dogshit bad... but when actually watching the games... Janmark and Kostin had solid seasons with the minutes they were given.

Underlying numbers tell only part of the story... but actual results (GF and GA) which actually matter on the scoreboard and what are determines wins and losses in games... matters the most.

He gets shit on because he actually can score on his shots when given the opportunity and he gets shit on because he's "lucky" that the team doesn't give up very many goals when he's on the ice (2.02 GA/60 in the regular season + playoffs combined).


You know who had great underlying numbers but poor GF% results for the Oilers last season? JP... I guess he was just a savant defensively but oh so very unlucky once again.


If anything... watching the actual games (regular season and playoffs) should be a clear lesson that results on the ice certainly don't always correlate to underlying numbers and the actual goals going into the net (for and against) is by far the most important factor in what actually matters on the ice.