Rumor: Rumour & Proposal Thread | Will Holland get us a Christmas present?

[belair]

Colorado also benefitted significantly from the timing of their contracts. As I said in 2020-2021 they could easily have been spending 20M+ on MacKinnon/Makar rather than the $7M+ price tag they had. This would have prevented them from adding the depth that eventually helped them win.

Cap management is extremely important in the NHL today if you want to build a winner. This has been a big issue for the Oilers and continues to be one.

It's night and day. The timing of their 'build' allowed them to maximize the value of some of their players that were not particularly popular at the time they got moved. The Duchene situation was an absolute mess and they still walked away with Byram and Girard. Pretty sure Bowers is still in their system, too.

Our ownership was in a hurry to be competitive. They channeled the impatient fanbase and proceeded to empower GMs that made high risk, short-term deals with its most valued assets at the time. We saw brief improvement but none of it was sustainable.

 

[Fourier]

You might be the only person who sees the Kadri trade that way. Tyson Barrie was an impending UFA that the Avs weren't going to re-sign. It was immediately after Makar had debuted in the playoffs and it was made clear that they had abundance at RD. Kerfoot was a free wallet that also had no significant role in Colorado. Kadri was a 50 point two-way center still in his mid-20s signed to a value contract. It was an absolute fleecing that ended up being a net cap win to boot.

And when Devon Toews was acquired, he was not established as a #2. There was no reliable track record. The same went for Nichushkin. Burakovsky was a 'bad fit' in Washington. All of those players were acquired for what we paid for an Athanasiou rental or less.

Where's the trade where they threw multiple first rounders and roster players at a single player? When did they make a reactionary trade out of a position of weakness? The only one that could be argued was the Kuemper trade. But even the Kuemper deal was a prospect being traded from a position of strength with no clear pathway to NHL minutes.

Regardless, the Avs are a poor comparable. Just a good example of a team that identifies players that are being mismanaged.

The bolded is a real skill for a GM. This has been an issue for the Oilers. There moves have been mostly reactionary. They tend to act when the need is both obvious and critical. The result is that the cost is very high.

 

[CupofOil]

I don’t see it with Bouchard. His lack of urgency and defensive IQ are just not there. I’m also not sure the Oilers can afford to wait and find out. The urgency, ironically, to win is pressing.

I think they have to make a choice between Barrie and Bouchard, and that choice is shifting towards the less obvious player more with each passing game.

Barrie is 31. You don't give up on a 24 year old Dman with the elite offensive instincts that Bouchard has because you have a 31 year old with an offensive skillset in the fold as a fallback plan. That's one of those trades you almost immediately regret. I say this as somebody that values what Barrie is bringing TODAY but the reality is that Father Time is not on his side.
Not every Dman develops at the same rate, patience will be needed with Bouchard and just because you're in win now mode that doesn't mean you can't still develop young players as well.

What they need to do is ADD a quality Dman, not swap one out for another.
In this case, Chychrun would be a solid add but you're robbing Peter to pay Paul in this scenario and you lose all that offensive upside of Bouchard going forward. What they need to do is trade assets that aren't current contributors to add immediate help (draft picks, prospects that aren't NHL impact players yet, cap dumps at positions of relative strength). Bouchard has already proven that he can play at a pretty high level in this league, what you do is continue working with him to mold him into a better player.

Broberg is the player that you dangle in a trade because there's a lot more unknown with him so if you want to push forth a win now mentality, trading him, not Bouchard, is the play.
Regardless, it appears that the Oilers have little interest in paying the price for Chychrun so we should talk about the more realistic options of Gavrikov or Edmundson.

 

[CupofOil]

Pretty much every team can find similar mistakes in hindsight. That's not the point. If you look at the relative success through the draft the Oilers have done very well. You can't dismiss McDavid even if he was a non brainer. Colorado would not have won last year with MacKinnon.

Here are the Oilers home grown draft choices that are currently regulars:

McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Nurse, Yamamoto, Bouchard, McLeod, Skinner, Puljujarvi, Holloway.

Here are the Avs:

MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen, Makar, Byram and Newhook.

As I said before flip JP and Makar and this is extremely lopsided in favour of the Oilers.

Now lets add draft choices playing on other teams.

Oilers: Hall, Eberle, Jones, Bear , Marino, Gustafsson, Khaira, Pitlick, Gagner, Cogliano, Petry

Colorado: Duchene, Barrie, O'Reilley, Shattenkirk, Jost,

Benson over Debrincat looks bad now but truthfully every second round pick is more of a crap shoot than it is about some test of drafting prowess. I watched Debrincat a great deal in junior. He was my choice over Benson but not by so much. There were a lot of reasons to believe that he could not convert his game to the NHL.

But the Reinhart trade is not really a drafting issue so much as it is simply a bad trade and an example of poor pro scouting. I would say that the pro scouting has been much worse than the amateur side.

I tend to agree in terms of comparing the Colorado and Edmonton builds. The far bigger problem with the Oilers in recent years is constantly losing trades or not winning any trades really as opposed to Colorado that has won trade after trade. THAT'S the big difference in their foundation. Where is the Oilers Toews, the Oilers Girard, the Oilers Manson, the Oilers Lehkonen, Kadri, Nichushkin (not a trade but a big win outside of drafting) etc.

If you want to talk about a team that is built through expert drafting, look no further than Tampa. Lots of homegrown guys taken outside of the lottery. They also made a few key trades to push them over the top, McDonagh namely, Coleman, Goodrow etc.

Drafting and development has been an issue, that's undenaible, but the Oilers have had virtually no real "wins" outside of the high draft picks. Only now are we starting to see some of the signings pay off (Hyman, Kane, Ceci and Barrie to a lesser degree) and some of the depth drafting with McLeod and Skinner but the Oilers just don't have any real "wins" that most contenders have. Until they get a few, they will never win a Cup.

 

[Fourier]

It's night and day. The timing of their 'build' allowed them to maximize the value of some of their players that were not particularly popular at the time they got moved. The Duchene situation was an absolute mess and they still walked away with Byram and Giroux. Pretty sure Bowers is still in their system, too.

Our ownership was in a hurry to be competitive. They channeled the impatient fanbase and and proceeded to empower GMs that made high risk, short-term deals with its most valued assets at the time. We saw brief improvement but none of it was sustainable.

The whole Hall-Larsson-Lucic debacle is linked together with the Reinhart trade. This set this team back significantly. The failure of the Reinhart deal had a big influence on creating the desperation that led to the Hall-Larsson trade. At the time Hall-Larsson was at least a hockey trade that one could see some justification for in terms of restructuring the team. But it was made out of panic and that significantly skewed the value. At the time I had suggested that a fair deal might have been something like

To NJD: Hall , 2nd
To Edmonton: Larsson, 1st.

That deal would have been a game changer since the 1st turned out to be first overall.

On the surface signing Lucic was a way to negate the loss on the Hall-Larsson deal. But while Lucic brought something to the team it was a major risk given his contract. The structure made it buyout proof and almost immovable. The Oilesr are still paying dearly for this chain of events.

 

[Draiskull]

The whole Hall-Larsson-Lucic debacle is linked together with the Reinhart trade. This set this team back significantly. The failure of the Reinhart deal had a big influence on creating the desperation that led to the Hall-Larsson trade. At the time Hall-Larsson was at least a hockey trade that one could see some justification for in terms of restructuring the team. But it was made out of panic and that significantly skewed the value. At the time I had suggested that a fair deal might have been something like

To NJD: Hall , 2nd
To Edmonton: Larsson, 1st.

That deal would have been a game changer since the 1st turned out to be first overall.

On the surface signing Lucic was a way to negate the loss on the Hall-Larsson deal. But while Lucic brought something to the team it was a major risk given his contract. The structure made it buyout proof and almost immovable. The Oilesr are still paying dearly for this chain of events.

Lucic is still bringing it after all these years... Too bad its for the Flames.


Edit: a proposal based on the chatter on mains:

To EDM: Lafreniere + Kravtsov
To NYR : Schaefer + Puljujarvi + Broberg

who says no?

potentially gives us a 3rd line of Kostin-Nuge-Kravtsov

 

[Soundwave]

I wouldn't have had a problem with the Larsson deal in theory if they had moved picks + prospects for Larsson.

Benson pick (2nd round pick) + 2016 1st for Larsson would've been OK, still an overpayment, but better than moving Hall.

Trading (at the time) your literal 2nd best player was stupid and betting it all on a low skill "power forward" in his late 20s with a degenerative back condition to become the go to winger on the team was insane.

No one is advocating for the Oilers to trade Draisaitl for Chychrun.

They should have moved the 2016 1st for a good D-Man, I don't have a problem with that. Moving Hall instead is where it got stupid.

Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Hall RNH Eberle
Caggiula Letestu Kassian

Klefbom Larsson (or whatever D they get for the 4th overall)
Sekera Russell
Nurse Benning

Talbot

Would have been a good team too.

Hiring Chiarelli in the first place and getting immediately cock blocked from getting Dougie Hamilton really screwed us over too (such an Oiler thing to have happen ... literally you hire the only GM on the planet who the Bruins would have some bad blood with which then blocks you from getting the exact player you need). We should have just swallowed our pride and overpaid for Hamilton.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Lucic is still bringing it after all these years... Too bad its for the Flames.


Edit: a proposal based on the chatter on mains:

To EDM: Lafreniere + Kravtsov
To NYR : Schaefer + Puljujarvi + Broberg

who says no?

potentially gives us a 3rd line of Kostin-Nuge-Kravtsov

Why would the Rangers need more blue line support?

Personally I would politely decline for the Oilers. Priority has to be to fix the defense so either trade Broberg for a more proven, experienced NHL d-man or continue to develop him and live through valleys and peaks of young defensemen. A reclamation project with Lafreniere is a wee bit intriguing. But I wouldn't do that deal. Fix the blue line!!

 

[WaitingForUser]

I wouldn't have had a problem with the Larsson deal in theory if they had moved picks + prospects for Larsson.

Benson pick (2nd round pick) + 2016 1st for Larsson would've been OK, still an overpayment, but better than moving Hall.

Trading (at the time) your literal 2nd best player was stupid and betting it all on a low skill "power forward" in his late 20s with a degenerative back condition to become the go to winger on the team was insane.

No one is advocating for the Oilers to trade Draisaitl for Chychrun.

They should have moved the 2016 1st for a good D-Man, I don't have a problem with that. Moving Hall instead is where it got stupid.

Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Hall RNH Eberle
Caggiula Letestu Kassian

Klefbom Larsson (or whatever D they get for the 4th overall)
Sekera Russell
Nurse Benning

Talbot

Would have been a good team too.

Hiring Chiarelli in the first place and getting immediately cock blocked from getting Dougie Hamilton really screwed us over too (such an Oiler thing to have happen ... literally you hire the only GM on the planet who the Bruins would have some bad blood with which then blocks you from getting the exact player you need). We should have just swallowed our pride and overpaid for Hamilton.

The rumored ask was one of Nurse or Klefbom plus our two firsts that went for GR. Way too much for Hamilton IMO.

 

[Soundwave]

The rumored ask was one of Nurse or Klefbom plus our two firsts that went for GR. Way too much for Hamilton IMO.

I mean we got totally f***ed by hiring Chiarelli, the deal was realistically a 1st 2015 + 2nd + whatever that Calgary got, if we had just kept Mac T on the job for a few extra weeks, that's the deal we would've got, our package was better because I believe our pick was actually higher.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I wouldn't have had a problem with the Larsson deal in theory if they had moved picks + prospects for Larsson.

Benson pick (2nd round pick) + 2016 1st for Larsson would've been OK, still an overpayment, but better than moving Hall.

Trading (at the time) your literal 2nd best player was stupid and betting it all on a low skill "power forward" in his late 20s with a degenerative back condition to become the go to winger on the team was insane.

No one is advocating for the Oilers to trade Draisaitl for Chychrun.

They should have moved the 2016 1st for a good D-Man, I don't have a problem with that. Moving Hall instead is where it got stupid.

Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Hall RNH Eberle
Caggiula Letestu Kassian

Klefbom Larsson (or whatever D they get for the 4th overall)
Sekera Russell
Nurse Benning

Talbot

Would have been a good team too.

Hiring Chiarelli in the first place and getting immediately cock blocked from getting Dougie Hamilton really screwed us over too (such an Oiler thing to have happen ... literally you hire the only GM on the planet who the Bruins would have some bad blood with which then blocks you from getting the exact player you need). We should have just swallowed our pride and overpaid for Hamilton.

Losing out on the Dougie Hamilton trade sweepstakes was the huge missed opportunity with the Chiarelli hiring. Add an absolute gonzo league edict that the Oilers had to compensate Boston for their terminated persona non grata was baffling.

Imagine Dougie Hamilton instead of the Griffin Reinhart debacle. Chiarelli was an unmitigated disaster from the terms of his hiring on.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

That was not on Edmundson in the slightest.

It was an 18 year old with a bad own zone turnover, followed by horrible, low effort forward checking by Dvorak, a soft defending learning mistake by a 20 year old defenseman, culminated by a weak stick checking effort by veteran Edmundson.

Looking at the broader game Edmundson played a team high defense minutes of 19:18 with some PP time and team high :57 seconds PK finishing with a neutral +/-. Kept his head above water with a d-corp that ran 4 defenders age 22 and younger.

 

[Soundwave]

You've said the bold about Colorado before and its simply not true. That team traded their #2 d-man at the time (Tyson Barrie) and their #3C (Kerfoot) for Nazem Kadri who was an integral piece in their cup run. That is substantially more impactful than anything people are proposing trading for Chychrun.

They also traded their first and one of their best D prospects at the time for their #1 goalie in their cup season.

They traded two 2nd rounders for their #2 d-man

Your #2C, #1G and #2D are not "secondary players" nor were they inconsequential in cost to acquire.

This is true.

Sakic is not afraid to make a big move when he feels he has to.

Good management is simply just a skill. The same way that Derek Ryan can't skate like Connor McDavid ... bad to average GMs can't do what good GMs do.

Being able to read a market, have tabs on players you like, being able to execute big decisions in a timely fashion, it's a talent to do all that.

Definitely the Oilers are basically a case study on how even having the two best players are still really reliant on what a front office gives them to work with. You can't just draft high and expect a good team.

 

[Soundwave]

My standing offer for Chychrun is

EDM 1st (2023 top 3 protected) + Broberg + Puljujarvi + Foegele

for

Chych + Bjugstad @50%

If Arizona can find a better deal, hats off to them, they should take it but my feeling is there isn't a better deal out there. If there was they would've traded him already.

 

[Oilhawks]

Lucic is still bringing it after all these years... Too bad its for the Flames.


Edit: a proposal based on the chatter on mains:

To EDM: Lafreniere + Kravtsov
To NYR : Schaefer + Puljujarvi + Broberg

who says no?

potentially gives us a 3rd line of Kostin-Nuge-Kravtsov

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I'd still take him over a guy like Shore, just not at 8 times the price tag!

 

[Oilhawks]

I'd still take him over a guy like Shore, just not at 8 times the price tag!

Yeah, I’d take him at league minimum as an extra forward. Wonder if the flames are still considering that $2M+ extension (lol)

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

I'd still take him over a guy like Shore, just not at 8 times the price tag!

We ARE paying him almost as much as we are paying Shore…….if that helps

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Yeah, I’d take him at league minimum as an extra forward. Wonder if the flames are still considering that $2M+ extension (lol)

Still would've loved to add Reaves. Guy seems to be a bit of a card in the room as well which we probably miss since Kassian left. Although Klim seems to have some of that in him and can actually play hockey!

 

[Bryanbryoil]

We ARE paying him almost as much as we are paying Shore…….if that helps

Oh snap!

 

[McShogun99]

My standing offer for Chychrun is

EDM 1st (2023 top 3 protected) + Broberg + Puljujarvi + Foegele

for

Chych + Bjugstad @50%

If Arizona can find a better deal, hats off to them, they should take it but my feeling is there isn't a better deal out there. If there was they would've traded him already.

I would do 23 and 24 1st (top 3 protected), JP and Niemo for Chychryn with 1.6 retained.

 

[McAsuno]

Lucic is still bringing it after all these years... Too bad its for the Flames.


Edit: a proposal based on the chatter on mains:

To EDM: Lafreniere + Kravtsov
To NYR : Schaefer + Puljujarvi + Broberg

who says no?

potentially gives us a 3rd line of Kostin-Nuge-Kravtsov

But why though?
The D still wouldn't be fixed with that trade.

 

[McSuper]

Aggressive Plan A:

Nurse for Parayko
Bouchard for Chychrun
1st for Gavrikov

Chychrun - Parayko
Gavrikov - Ceci
Kulak - Barrie

St Louis laughs.

 

[belair]

Barrie is 31. You don't give up on a 24 year old Dman with the elite offensive instincts that Bouchard has because you have a 31 year old with an offensive skillset in the fold as a fallback plan. That's one of those trades you almost immediately regret. I say this as somebody that values what Barrie is bringing TODAY but the reality is that Father Time is not on his side.
Not every Dman develops at the same rate, patience will be needed with Bouchard and just because you're in win now mode that doesn't mean you can't still develop young players as well.

What they need to do is ADD a quality Dman, not swap one out for another.
In this case, Chychrun would be a solid add but you're robbing Peter to pay Paul in this scenario and you lose all that offensive upside of Bouchard going forward. What they need to do is trade assets that aren't current contributors to add immediate help (draft picks, prospects that aren't NHL impact players yet, cap dumps at positions of relative strength). Bouchard has already proven that he can play at a pretty high level in this league, what you do is continue working with him to mold him into a better player.

Broberg is the player that you dangle in a trade because there's a lot more unknown with him so if you want to push forth a win now mentality, trading him, not Bouchard, is the play.
Regardless, it appears that the Oilers have little interest in paying the price for Chychrun so we should talk about the more realistic options of Gavrikov or Edmundson.

Getting the most value out of Chychrun as a player would be giving him a lot of the Bouchard assignments. Primarily on the powerplay. Moving Bouchard in that deal at least presents the logic that his future cap dollars are being covered by Chychrun coming in. Bouchard offers exponentially more value to a team like Arizona versus an unestablished player like Broberg, meaning the Oilers would need to give up less in terms of future assets.

There's a salary cap. A team that wishes to be competitive throughout their lineup just isn't going to have $6-7m tied up on their bottom pairing. It would mean you're running a short roster icing close to half your forward group at under $1m a piece.

The robbing Peter to pay Paul theory is valid, which is why you'd really need to be sure that Chychrun is your guy. Though it needs to be reiterated that it doesn't take very much to improve on the current depth at LD. A 40 year old Duncan Keith did just fine.

 

[jlockhart89]

What would we need to add to JP to do a Lafreniere change of scenery swap? Healthy scratch tonight