Speculation: Rumors/Speculation/General Discussion XVII

[OvermanKingGainer]

So with what you gents are saying Nathan McKinnon, Matt Duchene, Max Domi, Adam Henrique, Alexander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau or Jack Eichel are all utter crap as well?

All of these guys should have the ability to counter the defensive deficiencies of their clubs?

If they've "mastered the two-way game".

I think Huberdeau and Barkov being on this list are great examples of showing how coaching styles affect CORSI. You all must be right that's why Flordia is out of a playoff spot.

Do you truly believe Barkov's defensive game is down with Monahan's because they have artificially similar absolute corsi numbers when ordered by percentage?

Even ignoring that he's a year younger, he allows 30% less high-danger chances against, 39% less scoring chances against, and his zone-start adjusted corsi-against blows Monahan out of the water.

Come on, at some point we have to at least entertain the possibility that Monahan has not "mastered the two-way game".

 

[SKRusty]

If they've "mastered the two-way game".



Do you truly believe Barkov's defensive game is down with Monahan's because they have artificially similar absolute corsi numbers when ordered by percentage?

Even ignoring that he's a year younger, he allows 30% less high-danger chances against, 39% less scoring chances against, and his zone-start adjusted corsi-against blows Monahan out of the water.

Come on, at some point we have to at least entertain the possibility that Monahan has not "mastered the two-way game".

There is nobody that masters the two-way game. In regards to Monahan's game how much of the issue is the style and tactics Hartley uses and how much is Sean?

The combination of sub 50% corsi amongst the D core of Calgary shows the tactics Hartley is using is not successful in regards to puck possession. Even Backlund and Bennett in a very sheltered 2nd line have barely 50% CORSI numbers. Considering Monahan is playing the leagues best players night in and night out in the most difficult circumstances his CORSI at 1.8 points below that of Brodie is respectable for a young player.

Many of you a year ago were all bouncing off the wall with Sean's progress and by all accounts it was phenomenal.

BUT when the Tactical part of the game is flawed at a coaching level there is not much that can be done by the individual to fix it.

Considering Sean is playing the most difficult minutes out of any forward on the team and he is sitting right in the middle of Calgary's CORSI numbers it says it is the tactics that are flawed not the player.

 

[Dertell]

I beg you SKRusty please stop capitalizing the word "corsi" at random I beg you

Why play the more effective center at wing?

There's this belief around these parts (and probably Bob as well) that Bennett's game is better suited on the wing. Every bit of underlying data we have or the fact it's his natural position suggests it's completely wrong, but it's not going to make anyone waver.

 

[SKRusty]

I beg you SKRusty please stop capitalizing the word "corsi" at random I beg you

There's this belief around these parts (and probably Bob as well) that Bennett's game is better suited on the wing. Every bit of underlying data we have or the fact it's his natural position suggests it's completely wrong, but it's not going to make anyone waver.

Bennett will be a center but he needs to add a little bulk to be effective in the way he plays the game. Right now playing the wing he is able to stay away from the big guys in front of the net.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

There is nobody that masters the two-way game. In regards to Monahan's game how much of the issue is the style and tactics Hartley uses and how much is Sean?

The fact that Sean is worse at shot attempt or scoring-chance suppression than a smaller, weaker, worse-at-faceoffs break-even possession teammate, suggests that there is a lot of room to grow for Sean to even be compared to his smaller, weaker, worse-at-faceoffs break-even possession teammate, never mind legitimately elite top-line two-way centers in the NHL whom his smaller, weaker, worse-at-faceoffs break-even possession teammate is considered by this fanbase to be inferior to due to being too small, weak, poor-at-faceoffs to defend well.

Translation:

Until Sean Monahan is a comparable two-way player to Mikael Backlund under Bob Hartley, it is ridiculous to blame Bob Hartley for Sean Monahan being completely outclassed by far superior peers like Bergeron, Kopitar, ROR and Toews.

 

[SKRusty]

If Backlund was indeed better he would be taking those situations. Backlund has repeatedly shown he is not up to the task.

Backlund was given the first 1/3 of last year to prove he was first line material and it was his deficiencies that led to Sean taking over.

I don't understand despite the cumulative bad CORSI numbers team wide that would lead you to believe it is individuals vs coaching that is the base of the problems.

Hartley was great when the youth first arrived. He gave these young men a great base to build on. With the moves to bolster the teams roster Hartley has done little to make the team better.

With the D Calgary has and the talent in the top 6 there is no reason why the Flames should not be better at the possession game than Toronto. The coach is an obvious difference.

 

[Sparky93]

I don't like Hartley. He runs an exciting game but we're still past that at this point. Next year comes balance... Then victor! At least in the playoffs

 

[Nordic*]

In terms of picks, what would Backlund be worth at this point?

 

[SKRusty]

In terms of picks, what would Backlund be worth at this point?

Maybe a very late first at best .. Likely a second and a b level prospect.

 

[Calculon]

If the Flames drafted Matthews, I too would prefer to move Monahan to wing and Bennett to centre. One of the reasons why Matthews+Laine/Puljujarvi vs. Matthews+Monahan is an interesting proposition.

And Hartley's got a year left in a his contract after this season. Really don't expect him to brought back after that. Think Treliving will want a coach with a proper system moving forward.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

In regards to Monahan's game how much of the issue is the style and tactics Hartley uses and how much is Sean?

Well let's see, Backlund and Frolik seem to be totally fine defensively. Ferland is also doing pretty well defensively. Byron was good defensively, Bennett is doing well as a rookie, and Jooris is solid defensively. The Flames are not a team filled with excellent two-way forwards, but there are a handful of guys who do a pretty good job of indicating that Monny's garbage defensive stats can't be blamed on Hartley and the defence (especially since he spends half his time in front of Gio/Brodie).

Even Backlund and Bennett in a very sheltered 2nd line have barely 50% CORSI numbers.

Very sheltered?!? Monahan's line gets a huge amount of offensive zone starts compared to Backlund's, and Backlund's line sees the 2nd highest level of competition (and I will tell you, if Monahan wasn't playing with Gaudreau, he wouldn't be seeing other teams' top players).

Monahan has made great progress offensively since his rookie season. He has made less significant progress defensively. It's not unfair to say he has a long way to go, and blaming Hartley for his defensive issues just doesn't work.

With the D Calgary has and the talent in the top 6 there is no reason why the Flames should not be better at the possession game than Toronto. The coach is an obvious difference.

It's true that Hartley isn't as good a coach as Babcock, but the "talent in the top 6" isn't that great; Monahan is still raw defensively, Bennett is a rookie, and the team is missing one legitimate top 6 winger. As far as the D goes, the top 3 are great, and the bottom 4 are an unmitigated disaster.

 

[DFF]

In terms of picks, what would Backlund be worth at this point?

Nothing that would help the team more than he does.


I dont understand the concept of trading contributing players for picks

Not with the Flames drafting history and that genius Tod Button running the show anyway

 

[Johnny GODreau]

In terms of picks, what would Backlund be worth at this point?

He ain't for sale bud.

Nothing that would help the team more than he does.


I dont understand the concept of trading contributing players for picks

Not with the Flames drafting history and that genius Tod Button running the show anyway

Yeah Todd Button, terrible evaluator at talent.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Nothing that would help the team more than he does.


I dont understand the concept of trading contributing players for picks

Not with the Flames drafting history and that genius Tod Button running the show anyway

This. Why would we trade Backlund? He's on a great contract. Is a corsi God. One of our few good players outside of our core. Because he isn't flashy we should trade him for a Logan Brown? My god do people ever overvalue late firsts on these boards.

Trading roster players that contribute and are controlled for a few more seasons is beyond stupid.

 

[tmurfin]

Why play the more effective center at wing?

I'm all for Bennett playing center as well, but there is absolutely nothing to prove this.

We're still on this Monahan thing? , shake your head, enough with the what ifs and let's talk some realistic moves.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I'm all for Bennett playing center as well, but there is absolutely nothing to prove this.

We're still on this Monahan thing? , shake your head, enough with the what ifs and let's talk some realistic moves.

I love Bennett as much as anyone, but in no way shape or form, is he proven to be better at C than Monahan is. He's probably only played at that position for a total of 15-20 games this season and he hasn't been seeing the same quality of competition either. Bennett could absolutely end up being better of the two, but to say he's more proven at that position currently is false.

 

[SKRusty]

He ain't for sale bud.



Yeah Todd Button, terrible evaluator at talent.

IMO Button is not the problem. The development in the AHL is very sub par for the Flames. Better coaches and resources are required in the AHL and to bloody well keep the AHL team in one location. This constantly moving the farm's location impairs the ability to maintain and develop the players down there.

Abottsford, Adirondack now Stockton. It has to stop so the guys in the minors can have some continuity as they develop.

 

[Lunatik]

I love Bennett as much as anyone, but in no way shape or form, is he proven to be better at C than Monahan is. He's probably only played at that position for a total of 15-20 games this season and he hasn't been seeing the same quality of competition either. Bennett could absolutely end up being better of the two, but to say he's more proven at that position currently is false.

it's like the guy on the main board saying ALL 3 of Matthews and and Finns will be better than Monahan at this point next year. The amount of stupidity being spouted about Monahan these days is pathetic

 

[SKRusty]

it's like the guy on the main board saying ALL of Matthews and and Fins will be better than Monahan at this point next year. The amount of stupidity being spouted about Monahan these days is pathetic

Austin Mathews does not have the talent of either McDavid or Eichel. The 2 Finns are down below Marner and Strome in regards to talent.

That and until that talent has developed and playing in the NHL all you have is Alexandre Daigle. Just because they are drafted high does not assure that they will become effective NHLers. The only thing a top 5 draft pick does is increase you odds.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

it's like the guy on the main board saying ALL 3 of Matthews and and Finns will be better than Monahan at this point next year. The amount of stupidity being spouted about Monahan these days is pathetic

He is playing pretty bad this year. There isn't much disputing that.

But I agree. he just lacks confidence. He's still going to be a very good player.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Austin Mathews does not have the talent of either McDavid or Eichel. The 2 Finns are down below Marner and Strome in regards to talent.

That and until that talent has developed and playing in the NHL all you have is Alexandre Daigle. Just because they are drafted high does not assure that they will become effective NHLers. The only thing a top 5 draft pick does is increase you odds.

Austin Matthews is elite. You don't put up PPG numbers in the Swiss league in your draft year unless you are a beast.
Laine is 6'4, has a cannon and can move. Think a better version of Jeff Carter. Bigger, faster Cammaleri.
Puljujaarvi. Complete 200 foot player. Makes everyone else around him better. Think Marrian Hossa.

Those are elite talents. Better than Strome and Marner. By quite a bit.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

it's like the guy on the main board saying ALL 3 of Matthews and and Finns will be better than Monahan at this point next year. The amount of stupidity being spouted about Monahan these days is pathetic

To say it's frustrating, is a huge understatement. And no one is claiming that the Finns won't be tremendous players, but the reality is that in real life, you don't roll the dice that way. Hell in our fantasy league, I do moves like that but real NHL teams don't simply invest their time and millions into franchise pieces like Monahan, then just trade them away in year 3 just because they aren't playing at comparable level to Toews or Bergeron, yet. It's called consistency and it's a process.

The ongoing suggestion to do so, and the criticism that Monahan has been getting is just absurd and quite frankly it's also embarrassing. It's no surprise though, were at the half way point of the season, new analytics on the season have come out and all of the sudden we have all these expert critics who weren't saying anything prior to Monahan. I was at the game this past week and Mony was easily one of our best players at both ends of the ice.

 

[Lunatik]

To say it's frustrating, is a huge understatement. And no one is claiming that the Finns won't be tremendous players, but the reality is that in real life, you don't roll the dice that way. Hell in our fantasy league, I do moves like that but real NHL teams don't simply invest their time and millions into franchise pieces like Monahan, then just trade them away in year 3 just because they aren't playing at comparable level to Toews or Bergeron, yet. It's called consistency and it's a process.

The ongoing suggestion to do so, and the criticism that Monahan has been getting is just absurd and quite frankly it's also embarrassing. It's no surprise though, were at the half way point of the season, new analytics on the season have come out and all of the sudden we have all these expert critics who weren't saying anything prior to Monahan. I was at the game this past week and Mony was easily one of our best players at both ends of the ice.

It's like having a $50,000 scratch winner and trading it in for a new scratcher that give you a chance to win $75,000

 

[SKRusty]

Austin Matthews is elite. You don't put up PPG numbers in the Swiss league in your draft year unless you are a beast.
Laine is 6'4, has a cannon and can move. Think a better version of Jeff Carter. Bigger, faster Cammaleri.
Puljujaarvi. Complete 200 foot player. Makes everyone else around him better. Think Marrian Hossa.

Those are elite talents. Better than Strome and Marner. By quite a bit.

Nail Yakapov had the same buzz floating around him. Now by all means Nail's potential could still come to fruition but it has not happened yet.

That said until the player has developed there is no way to ascertain which direction he will go.

Griffin Reinhart was a highly touted 5th overall pick, Ryan Johnson and Brett Connoly have not flourished the way most figured they would develop, Brayden Schenn, Evander Kane, Kadri, and rule changes speeding up the game killed Luke Schenn. So top picks are not written in stone to be successfull.

It is great to be hopeful with high draft picks but people have to realize a draft pick in itself is a lottery.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

To say it's frustrating, is a huge understatement. And no one is claiming that the Finns won't be tremendous players, but the reality is that in real life, you don't roll the dice that way. Hell in our fantasy league, I do moves like that but real NHL teams don't simply invest their time and millions into franchise pieces like Monahan, then just trade them away in year 3 just because they aren't playing at comparable level to Toews or Bergeron, yet. It's called consistency and it's a process.

The ongoing suggestion to do so, and the criticism that Monahan has been getting is just absurd and quite frankly it's also embarrassing. It's no surprise though, were at the half way point of the season, new analytics on the season have come out and all of the sudden we have all these expert critics who weren't saying anything prior to Monahan. I was at the game this past week and Mony was easily one of our best players at both ends of the ice.

These 'mystery box' or 'scratch ticket' analogies are hilariously-bad. They aren't random throws at a dart board.
No. It's a mystery box that you get to peek inside before taking. That's why we have scouts. That's there job. To identify and evaluate talent. That goes for prospects.

Are most prospects mystery boxes? Absolutely. But guys that are top end talents are not mystery boxes. They are elite players. Elite players that prove they are elite by the time the draft rolls around, always are elite. Always.
Who are the guys over the past fifteen years that have been deemed elite before the draft by scouts?

Kovalchuk
Spezza
Ovechkin
Crosby
Malkin
Tavares
Stamkos
Doughty
Ekblad
Hall
Seguin
Mackinnon
Jones
Barkov

Those are the guys that were basically considered superstars to scouts off the top of my head. None other the Tavares had the WJC success that Laine and Pulju have. Those guys are elite. You can call them mystery boxes of you like. It doesn't make it true. They are stars. Likely elite first liners. I'm not sure I see Sean as an elite first liner. Very good yes, but not elite.
Lots of other first picks Yak, Nuge, even guys like Ekblad, Stamkos, and Mackinnon didn't look that good at the WJC, not even close.