Round 2, Vote 3 (HOH Top Centers)

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Yes, definitely. It's plausible that Apps/Schmidt were just part of a generation that lacked great centers altogether. I feel like we ran into this problem a bit in the goalies project, where one slight over-rating led to a domino effect down the line.

I think it's worth pursuing C58's concept of changing expectations at the position (as well as any other interpretations that might be out there) at this stage of the voting, before we push these guys too far down the ladder. Maybe it turns out that they just aren't all that impressive, and their generation goes down as a low point in the history of centers.

I'm not sure what C58 means by changing expectations for centers. In the 40s, you had Schmidt and Kennedy who were loaded with intangibles of all kinds, Apps who was a legendary leader but rarely backchecked, and then guys like Cowley and Bentley who were fantastic offensive players and little else. Seems like you had the full gambit of skillsets to me.

 

[jigglysquishy]

For what it's worth, I had Apps and Schmidt at 16 and 17.

I don't think Newsy Lalonde is getting a fair shake. I'll write something up about him later, but he's not that far back from Nighbor.

 

[ted2019]

The players for Me in this round would look like this.
Sakic
Dionne
Schmidt
Lalonde

Everything can change this round. I should have more time to do some more research before the next voting.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Cyclone Taylor's offensive dominance in the PCHA

We seem to all agree that Taylor was the best player in PCHA history, but I think it's useful to readers to show just how far ahead he was of everyone offensively. The Nayld Psycho post is from the 2008 Top 100 project:

Some info on Cyclone Taylor, interpret as you wish...

Top ten scores in PCHA history:

Name|GP|G|A|PTS|GPG|APG|PTSPG
Fred Taylor|135|160|103|263|1.185|0.763|1.948
Tom Dunderdale|242|194|59|253|0.802|0.244|1.045
Smokey Harris|253|155|90|245|0.613|0.356|0.968
Mickey MacKay|193|159|81|240|0.824|0.420|1.243
Bernie Morris|164|155|76|231|0.945|0.463|1.408
Frank Foyston|202|175|53|228|0.866|0.262|1.129
Eddie Oatman|194|124|80|204|0.639|0.412|1.051
Lloyd Cook|223|106|57|163|0.475|0.256|0.731
Frank Frederickson|105|93|47|140|0.886|0.448|1.333
Jack Walker|190|81|58|139|0.426|0.305|0.732

And for added flavour:

Name|GP|G|A|PTS|GPG|APG|PTSPG
Newsy Lalonde|15|27|N/A|27|1.8|N/A|1.8
Frank Nighbor|28|33|12|45|1.179|0.429|1.607
Didier Pitre|15|14|2|16|0.933|0.133|1.067

And for fairness sakes, Cyclone's best two seasons, two worst seasons and the 3 stars before and after seasons, making a more accurate comparisons to the NHA stars.

Name|GP|G|A|PTS|GPG|APG|PTSPG
Fred Taylor's Best|32|55|26|81|1.719|0.812|2.531
Fred Taylor's Worst|16|11|7|18|0.687|0.437|1.125
Newsy Lalonde Before|16|19|N/A|19|1.187|N/A|1.187
Newsy Lalonde After|18|25|N/A|25|1.388|N/A|1.388
Frank Nighbor Before|19|25|N/A|25|1.316|N/A|1.316
Frank Nighbor After*|23|19|5|24|0.826|0.217|1.043
Didier Pitre Before|17|24|N/A|24|1.412|N/A|1.412
Didier Pitre After|20|30|4|34|1.5|0.2|1.7

It would appear that Lalonde's stats are skewed, he played in the PCHA's 1st season, Taylor, Nighbor and Pitre came later, so the PCHA may be weaker, but other than that, there is no evidence that it was easier to score in the PCHA, and Taylor lit up the league in Gretzky like fashion.

Just a note, the year after, Nighbor absolutely destroyed the NHA with 41 goals in 19 games, I'm not sure if that's relevant, but, just HOLY ****!

Here's a link to Stuminator's Vs2 number crunching, where Taylor doesn't show up quite so highly (still the best by not by as large a margin): http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=32085303&postcount=283

Also note that while the PCHA kept much better records of assists than the NHA/early NHL, the number of assists per goal was still far less than it is in modern times. So Cyclone Taylor's point totals probably even underrate him compared to the competition - since he was almost doubling 2nd place in assists per game, while leading the pack in goals per game by a smaller margin.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The players for Me in this round would look like this.
Sakic
Dionne
Schmidt
Lalonde

Everything can change this round. I should have more time to do some more research before the next voting.

Dionne back to back with Sakic? I just can't see it. The two of them are close in regular season offensive value, but then Sakic completely blows Dionne away in defense, leadership, and playoffs. IMO, there should be a very sizable gap between the two of them.

And what is the argument for Dionne over Esposito (or Trottier for that matter)?

 

[Canadiens1958]

Art Ross

Why do you rank Trottier over Sakic?

As for Dionne, in a project full of good to excellent playoff performers, he sticks out like a sore thumb as a relatively poor one. Well, maybe Milt Schmidt can join him. Hard to know what to make of Schmidt in the playoffs - his stats took a nosedive, but he did win 2 Cups and maybe he was playing a defensive role in the playoffs, while the Bill Cowley line went for the offense.

Art Ross in the thirties developed and stockpiled centers, Weiland, Barry, Cowley, Schmidt, Nels Stewart, etc. so his teams had depth and versatility. Well ran dry after Schmidt. The Leafs - late forties and Canadiens imitated this in the O6 era.

2SC wins Schmidt actually outperformed his regular season numbers in 1941, under a bit in 1939 but Bill Cowley was back from injury so ice time and responsibility was a factor.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/schmimi01.html

 

[Canadiens1958]

Centers

Yes, definitely. It's plausible that Apps/Schmidt were just part of a generation that lacked great centers altogether. I feel like we ran into this problem a bit in the goalies project, where one slight over-rating led to a domino effect down the line.

I think it's worth pursuing C58's concept of changing expectations at the position (as well as any other interpretations that might be out there) at this stage of the voting, before we push these guys too far down the ladder. Maybe it turns out that they just aren't all that impressive, and their generation goes down as a low point in the history of centers.

This expectations issue came to the forefront when it was mentioned that the Blackhawks with Stan Mikita went from three to four centers. This was supported by estimated TOI data.

If we look at the scope of this project the expectations issue expands to roster sizes which started with roster allowing for one regular center plus a sub to the present where you have roster that allow for four regular center plus a sub.

Two lines plus a sub during the 1929-30 season grew to four lines and a sub by the early seventies. Difficulty is that not all NHL teams did not play the same number of centers or lines at any given time. So a team rolling three lines with three centers compared to a team rolling four lines lines with four centers generates different offensive numbers at each position.

A few examples:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/BOS/1939.html

1939 Bruins in the playoffs and during the season were 4-6 deep at center, partially because Cowley and Schmidt were injured and a fall back was needed.

1947-48 Leafs, Syl Apps' last season. Three deep at center, each strong offensively. Apps missed five games but was only seven points behind the Ross Trophy winner.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/TOR/1948.html

Two top scorers were from teams with one strong offensive center supported by defensive centers. Playing together with Lach, O'Connor's numbers were suppressed.

Similar impactful situations are available throughout hockey history.

So how much weight should be given to Ross performance in this context?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Joe Sakic's consistency as a top 20 scorer

1989-90: 10th
1991-91: 6th
1991-92: 14th
1992-93: 17th
1993-94: 19th
1994-95: 4th
1995-96: 3rd
1996-97: missed 17 games, but 11th in points-per-game
1997-98: missed 18 games, but 17th in points-per-game
1998-99: 5th
1999-00: 8th
2000-01: 2nd
2001-02: 5th
2002-03: missed 24 games, but 16th in points-per-game
2003-04: 2nd
2005-06: 17th
2006-07: 6th

For 17 straight seasons, Sakic was either top 20 in points or top 20 in points per game

 

[tarheelhockey]

Interesting observations about the variance in center depth during that period. I'm trying to figure out quite what to make of it in terms of evaluating Apps.

Here's a summary of the regular centers in the league in 1937-38, by team, with their points-per-game average:

Boston | Chicago | Detroit | Canadiens | Maroons | Americans | Rangers | Toronto
Cowley .81|Romnes .73|Motter .69|Haynes .73|Gracie .65|Stewart .75|Colville .80| Apps 1.06 Schmidt .61 |Dahlstrom .40|Barry .60|Lepine .40|Blinco .40|Chapman .64|Smith .77|Thoms .79
Weiland .48|Voss .32|Howe .56|Brown .24|Trottier .40|Smith .43|Watson .67| Armstrong .00
x| Shill .30 | Drouillard .10 | Wilson .50 | Cook .29 | Shill .18 | Boucher .06 |x
x| Hanson .00 | Kilrea .00 | Asmundson .00 |Voss .00|x|x|x
x| Heyliger.00 |x|x|x|x|x|x

(italicized those who played less than half the 48-game season)



Well... how about that. Toronto was the only team in the league that year that used a 2-center rotation.

That seems like it would have had a major impact on Apps' scoring numbers. I'm trying to decide whether it would have been a net positive or a net negative. It certainly suggests that Apps was doing a LOT more than other #1 centers in terms of workload, TOI, etc.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Top 20 scoring finishes for Esposito, Sakic, Yzerman, and Trottier

italicized red finishes for Yzerman are with Bowman as coach.

player|top 20 finishes
Esposito | 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 7, 9, 15, 17, 17, 20
Sakic | 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 8, 10, 14, 17, 17, 19
Yzerman | 3, 3, 4, 7, 7, 10 , 12, 12, 13, 16, 19
Trottier | 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14

Sakic has as many top 5 finishes as Trottier has top 10 finishes (6), and has more top 10 finishes (10) than Trottier has top 20 finishes (8).

Sakic has as many top 5 finishes as Yzerman has top 10 finishes (6). Sakic has one fewer top 10 finish (10) than Yzerman has top 20 finishes (11).

 

[MXD]

Interesting observations about the variance in center depth during that period. I'm trying to figure out quite what to make of it in terms of evaluating Apps.

Here's a summary of the regular centers in the league in 1937-38, by team, with their points-per-game average:

Boston | Chicago | Detroit | Canadiens | Maroons | Americans | Rangers | Toronto
Cowley .81|Romnes .73|Motter .69|Haynes .73|Gracie .65|Stewart .75|Colville .80| Apps 1.06 Schmidt .61 |Dahlstrom .40|Barry .60|Lepine .40|Blinco .40|Chapman .64|Smith .77|Thoms .79
Weiland .48|Voss .32|Howe .56|Brown .24|Trottier .40|Smith .43|Watson .67| Armstrong .00
x| Shill .30 | Drouillard .10 | Wilson .50 | Cook .29 | Shill .18 | Boucher .06 |x
x| Hanson .00 | Kilrea .00 | Asmundson .00 |Voss .00|x|x|x
x| Heyliger.00 |x|x|x|x|x|x

(italicized those who played less than half the 48-game season)



Well... how about that. Toronto was the only team in the league that year that used a 2-center rotation.

That seems like it would have had a major impact on Apps' scoring numbers. I'm trying to decide whether it would have been a net positive or a net negative. It certainly suggests that Apps was doing a LOT more than other #1 centers in terms of workload, TOI, etc.

.... Or maybe Murph Chamberlain was used at Center more than H-R would acknowledge it? Because the Leafs have an awful lot of left wingers who played nearly all games.

 

[Hardyvan123]

This doesn't make any sense, considering that last round went like this :

Phil Esposito 1 1 5 2 1 3 3 1 3 75
Joe Sakic 0 0 2 2 7 4 4 0 1 70
Bryan Trottier 0 2 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 66
Cyclone Taylor 0 1 0 1 1 1 5 5 6 34
Steve Yzerman 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 2 11 20
Newsy Lalonde 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 4 14 11

I agree it doesn't make sense and I doubt anything will be consensus with the candidates being so close.

Still Phil is getting ranked too high here and how did Clarke edge out Sakic last round?

 

[Hardyvan123]

One argument that might be worth considering now that we're past the obvious-generational-talent stage... here's how the decades break down among our inductees and candidates so far:

1910s: Lalonde, Taylor, Nighbor
1920s: Taylor, Morenz, Nighbor
1930s: Apps, Morenz, Schmidt
1940s: Apps, Schmidt
1950s: Beliveau, Mikita
1960s: Beliveau, Clarke, Esposito, Mikita
1970s: Beliveau, Clarke, Dionne, Esposito, Gretzky, Messier, Mikita, Trottier
1980s: Clarke, Dionne, Esposito, Gretzky, Lemieux, Messier, Sakic, Trottier, Yzerman
1990s: Gretzky, Lemieux, Messier, Sakic, Trottier, Yzerman
2000s: Lemieux, Messier, Sakic, Yzerman


Given that Esposito, Sakic and Trottier are all well-positioned to go in this round, it's noteworthy that we're about to induct seven centers who played in the 1980s before we induct one who played between 1937 and 1950. This same phenomenon occurred during the goaltenders project, when something like a dozen of our inductees played during the 1970/71 seasons. In both cases it would appear that the rapid expansion of the league lengthened careers, inflated reputations and institutionalized dynasties.

IMO we should take a hard look at Apps and Schmidt to be absolutely sure that their generation doesn't deserve to be represented at all in the top 12.

I think every player needs a hard and honest and fair appraisal here, I sure hope Apps and Schmidt don't get a generous bump because of the above chart, in the big scheme of things the best should be considered as such regardless of when they played.

On the surface I don't see a very strong argument for either guy being close to top 4 this round, or even obviously better than several guys not listed yet for that matter.

Dionne is going to be an interesting case with his obvious strengths and weaknesses.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Most times leading the NHL in points
10 = Wayne Gretzky
6 = Gordie Howe, Mario Lemieux
5 = Phil Esposito, Jaromir Jagr
4 = Stan Mikita
3 = Bobby Hull, Guy Lafleur

Most times leading the NHL in goals
7 = Bobby Hull
6 = Phil Esposito
5 = Charlie Conacher, Maurice Richard, Gordie Howe, Wayne Gretzky
3 = Babe Dye, Brett Hull, Mario Lemieux, Teemu Selanne, Pavel Bure, Alexander Ovechkin

Esposito also led the league in assists 3 times.

Consider this something of a case for Phil Esposito.

 

[Hardyvan123]

I feel pretty certain that this is a big factor. And it may very well be that there was a period of roughly 20 years (between the peaks of Morenz and Beliveau) where there wasn't a single top-12 center at the top of his form. It's kind of depressing to imagine, but it could simply be the way the cookie crumbled for that generation.

Probably the bigger thing, which I should have pointed out first, is that we would be saying that Beliveau was the only top-12 center during a roughly 30-year period from Morenz's decline until Mikita's emergence. One guy in 30 years, compared to FIVE in the 1984 season alone? That seems a little skewed...

Maybe yes, maybe no, these things go in cycles like the mid 90's till recently for Canadian Dmen and Dmen are strongly represented in the time frame you are talking about as well.

I think it's really important to not over emphasize the time chart so early on in the process but perhaps a clearer picture will emerge after the project and even more so after all positions are done.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

We're going to have a lot of centers from the 40s on the list - Apps, Schmidt, Kennedy, Cowley, Bentley, Abel, and Lach were all featured on the top 100 list on this board.

I think it goes without question that Maurice Richard was the best player to play in the 1940s, but he didn't get started until 1943.

 

[tarheelhockey]

.... Or maybe Murph Chamberlain was used at Center more than H-R would acknowledge it? Because the Leafs have an awful lot of left wingers who played nearly all games.

Quite possibly so. It took enough effort to compile the C numbers that I didn't cross reference them against the wingers.

I'd think it would be fairly easy to find in the newspaper archives whether the Leafs were using a full-time third center that year.

 

[Hardyvan123]

This is an intriguing take on the 1940s generation, and points to a possible viable explanation for the lack of star-power during that period. I'd be interested to see some more detailed commentary on what distinguished centers of that generation from their counterparts both before and after that period. And for the purposes of this project, we still need to determine just how greatly Apps and Schmidt separated themselves from the pack.

Well Apps has more separation than Schmidt does, at least in terms of production.

Schmidt probably doesn't do very well in the Vs% score either but here is his top 10 finishes in points

1,4,4,10,10

Then compared to Apps

2,2,2,6,7,8

Do either of these 2 guys do enough in the regular season and playoffs to match up with a

1,2,2,2,3,4,5,7 ?

That last guy is Marcel who did it in a larger league so his chance of variance is much higher than for Apps or Schmidt.

At least in terms of regular season offense (and quality of line mates PP QB help ect...) Marcel towers above the 2 guys listed here.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I think every player needs a hard and honest and fair appraisal here, I sure hope Apps and Schmidt don't get a generous bump because of the above chart, in the big scheme of things the best should be considered as such regardless of when they played.

I agree that every player should get a hard look. There really might not be anything to the generational distribution. But against the background of people already saying that have 3 or 4 "locks" for this round, I want to be sure we are conscious of repercussions like putting the 5th best center of one generation over the 1st best of another. If we look at all of them closely and decide that yes, that is the right way to go, then there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I agree that every player should get a hard look. There really might not be anything to the generational distribution. But against the background of people already saying that have 3 or 4 "locks" for this round, I want to be sure we are conscious of repercussions like putting the 5th best center of one generation over the 1st best of another. If we look at all of them closely and decide that yes, that is the right way to go, then there's nothing wrong with that.

Who is the 5th best center of his generation here?

Esposito was arguably the best center of the 1970s (Bobby Clarke also has an argument obviously).

Sakic was the best center of the generation between the 1995 and 2005 lockouts, or second best if you consider Mario Lemieux part of that generation.

We're a long way from getting into the 4th/5th best centers of their generations.

 

[Hardyvan123]

I'm hesitant to overlook Dionne for that exact reason, but I just don't feel that he quite belongs at this level.

Assuming we are ok with using hockey-reference's point adjustments:

Sakic - 1.22 Appg
Esposito - 1.18 Appg
Dionne - 1.11 Appg
Yzerman - 1.09 Appg
Trottier - 0.92 Appg

I'm probably more willing than most voters to be flexible with Dionne based on his team situation, and I don't really buy into the idea of players being "winners" and "losers" based on where they were drafted. But even if you just look at his regular seasons... he doesn't match Esposito's scoring power, let alone Sakic's. His defensive game doesn't match Sakic's, Yzerman's or Trottier's. His 2-3 year period of peak dominance (when he won his only major awards) coincided with an extremely brief generational transition where Clarke/Mikita/Esposito were finished and Gretzky/Messier/Lemieux hadn't yet fully arrived... and even at that, Trottier took a Hart from him in '79. Really, Dionne's biggest argument is that he was in the same scoring range as Trottier, and Trottier was pretty clearly the more complete player in every other facet of the game.

THEN you pile on the playoff profiles, and the distance between Dionne and Sakic/Yzerman/Trottier gets to the point where there's not much of an argument left for Marcel. I see him as a guy who should wait at least one more round and possibly two.

Pretty good points but it really depends on how much one factors, if at all, Dionne's team situation and line mates ect into the equation.

Defensively he wasn't the greatest to be sure but his ES play looks a lot stronger, given his team situations than a guys like Phil.

Lots of variables to juggle here, as there is with each player IMO.

 

[Canadiens1958]

1938 Playoffs

Interesting observations about the variance in center depth during that period. I'm trying to figure out quite what to make of it in terms of evaluating Apps.

Here's a summary of the regular centers in the league in 1937-38, by team, with their points-per-game average:

Boston | Chicago | Detroit | Canadiens | Maroons | Americans | Rangers | Toronto
Cowley .81|Romnes .73|Motter .69|Haynes .73|Gracie .65|Stewart .75|Colville .80| Apps 1.06 Schmidt .61 |Dahlstrom .40|Barry .60|Lepine .40|Blinco .40|Chapman .64|Smith .77|Thoms .79
Weiland .48|Voss .32|Howe .56|Brown .24|Trottier .40|Smith .43|Watson .67| Armstrong .00
x| Shill .30 | Drouillard .10 | Wilson .50 | Cook .29 | Shill .18 | Boucher .06 |x
x| Hanson .00 | Kilrea .00 | Asmundson .00 |Voss .00|x|x|x
x| Heyliger.00 |x|x|x|x|x|x

(italicized those who played less than half the 48-game season)



Well... how about that. Toronto was the only team in the league that year that used a 2-center rotation.

That seems like it would have had a major impact on Apps' scoring numbers. I'm trying to decide whether it would have been a net positive or a net negative. It certainly suggests that Apps was doing a LOT more than other #1 centers in terms of workload, TOI, etc.

Well done.

1938 Playoffs, sub .500 Hawks with four centers beat Leafs with Syl Apps, mainly two centers to win the SC:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/CBH/1938.html

As rosters grew this scenario - depth at center winning SCs over Ross or top scoring centers repeated fairly often.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Who is the 5th best center of his generation here?

Esposito was arguably the best center of the 1970s (Bobby Clarke also has an argument obviously).

Sakic was the best center of the generation between the 1995 and 2005 lockouts, or second best if you consider Mario Lemieux part of that generation.

We're a long way from getting into the 4th/5th best centers of their generations.

Agree, just listing the decades they played in and looking for overlap is not a good way to determine which players are of the same generation. Messier is listed for the 2000's and Sakic for the 1980's...they had almost no relevance during those time frames.

 

[Rob Scuderi]

Well Apps has more separation than Schmidt does, at least in terms of production.

Schmidt probably doesn't do very well in the Vs% score either but here is his top 10 finishes in points

1,4,4,10,10

Then compared to Apps

2,2,2,6,7,8

Do either of these 2 guys do enough in the regular season and playoffs to match up with a

1,2,2,2,3,4,5,7 ?

That last guy is Marcel who did it in a larger league so his chance of variance is much higher than for Apps or Schmidt.

At least in terms of regular season offense (and quality of line mates PP QB help ect...) Marcel towers above the 2 guys listed here.

Schmidt differentiates himself from Apps and Dionne for being a physical player and Joe Pelletier's profile calls him a two-way player. Apps was criticized in many of his combinations for having no one to backcheck.

This is the only one I could find, but I've read it for other linemate combinations.

And so it may be taken for granted that an Apps-Drillon-Schriner trio on the attack will land a lot of goals for Conn Smythe, but who will do the backchecking for that proposed line with be Conny's worry if he sends them out in that order. All three can move smartly on the goal, but hockey is still a two-way game - the other side must be stopped as well.

Milt's offensive production doesn't match the other two, but he brings other elements to the table they don't seem to have.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Most times leading the NHL in points
10 = Wayne Gretzky
6 = Gordie Howe, Mario Lemieux
5 = Phil Esposito, Jaromir Jagr
4 = Stan Mikita
3 = Bobby Hull, Guy Lafleur

Most times leading the NHL in goals
7 = Bobby Hull
6 = Phil Esposito
5 = Charlie Conacher, Maurice Richard, Gordie Howe, Wayne Gretzky
3 = Babe Dye, Brett Hull, Mario Lemieux, Teemu Selanne, Pavel Bure, Alexander Ovechkin

Esposito also led the league in assists 3 times.

Consider this something of a case for Phil Esposito.

That is Espostio's case, it's his peak but it's still a large question of how much of a factor Orr was in that success.

Just as a side note, the center that Phil was traded for did quite a lot better in terms of production and ES play for the 6 seasons the 2 guys continued playing in the league.

Sure the other guy had better support in Boston but he was also 35 at the time of the trade compared to Phil's 33.

That kinda counters the Phil had a big impact aging argument quite a bit.

The whole Chicago thing has to be taken with a grain of salt as well in terms of PP time for Phil as Hull was in on 73 (plus 10 PP points) of the 174 points Phil scored with the Black Hawks.


Then there is the whole SC counting thing, if one is into that sort of thing. With Orr being on everyone #1 Dman list of all time, does that bruins team also have a top 10 center of all time, and very good secondary players (perhaps a top 30 winger) and still only 2 SC's?