On a request from foame, I'm posted pre-97 and post-97 even-strength on-ice numbers for Chelios, Bourque, Stevens, and MacInnis, in order to help assess the competition level for Nicklas Lidstrom. Unfortunately this is coming a little late for this vote, but here it is for the record.
Stat Glossary:
$ESGF/G - even-strength goals for per game, adjusted for scoring level. Higher is better.
$ESGA/G - even-strength goals against per game, adjusted for scoring level. Lower is better.
R-ON - Player's even-strength on-ice goal ratio (ESGF/ESGA). Should be higher than R-OFF.
R-OFF - Player's even-strength off-ice goal ratio (ESGF/ESGA).
XEV+/- - Players expected EV+/-, based on off-ice results.
EV+/- - Even-strength plus-minus, adjusted for scoring level.
AEV+/- - Adjusted even-strength plus-minus. =(EV+/-) - (XEV+/-). If you look at just one number, make it this one.
/82 - Adjusted even-strength plus-minus per season.
PP% - Percentage of team's PP goals for that the player was on the ice for.
SH% - Percentage of team's PP goals against that the player was on the ice for.
$PPP/G - Power play points per game, adjusted for PP scoring level.
Pre-1997
Player | Year | Seasons | $ESGF/G | $ESGA/G | R-ON | R-OFF | XEV+/- | EV+/- | AEV+/- | /82 | PP% | SH% | $PPP/G
Raymond Bourque | 88-96 | 8.37 | 1.23 | 0.88 | 1.40 | 0.91 | -49 | 241 | 290 | 35 | 0.90 | 0.62 | 0.50
Al MacInnis | 88-96 | 8.00 | 1.12 | 0.76 | 1.47 | 1.18 | 71 | 236 | 165 | 21 | 0.86 | 0.40 | 0.54
Chris Chelios | 88-96 | 8.41 | 1.08 | 0.77 | 1.40 | 1.23 | 93 | 213 | 120 | 14 | 0.78 | 0.60 | 0.37
Scott Stevens | 88-96 | 8.48 | 1.14 | 0.89 | 1.28 | 1.18 | 80 | 171 | 91 | 11 | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.25
Post-1997
Player | Year | Seasons | $ESGF/G | $ESGA/G | R-ON | R-OFF | XEV+/- | EV+/- | AEV+/- | /82 | PP% | SH% | $PPP/G
Al MacInnis | 97-03 | 6.05 | 1.19 | 0.90 | 1.32 | 1.07 | 23 | 142 | 119 | 20 | 87% | 46% | 0.47
Chris Chelios | 97-02 | 5.02 | 1.15 | 0.89 | 1.30 | 1.02 | 7 | 109 | 103 | 20 | 50% | 61% | 0.21
Scott Stevens | 97-03 | 6.78 | 1.16 | 0.81 | 1.44 | 1.23 | 79 | 196 | 117 | 17 | 17% | 74% | 0.05
Raymond Bourque | 97-01 | 4.68 | 1.03 | 0.97 | 1.06 | 0.98 | -5 | 21 | 26 | 6 | 88% | 63% | 0.50
Bourque clearly dropped of from 1997 on. MacInnis, Chelios, and Stevens were all still playing at a high level, although Chelios and Stevens didn't have the power play responsibilities that they had earlier in their career.
And here are the 97-03 numbers for Lidstrom and a few other prominent defensemen.
Player | Year | Seasons | $ESGF/G | $ESGA/G | R-ON | R-OFF | XEV+/- | EV+/- | AEV+/- | /82 | PP% | SH% | $PPP/G
Nicklas Lidstrom | 97-03 | 6.87 | 1.19 | 0.93 | 1.28 | 1.21 | 79 | 149 | 70 | 10 | 77% | 62% | 0.49
Chris Pronger | 97-03 | 5.37 | 1.28 | 0.86 | 1.49 | 1.02 | 7 | 186 | 178 | 33 | 67% | 61% | 0.37
Scott Niedermayer | 97-03 | 6.33 | 1.08 | 0.84 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 90 | 129 | 39 | 6 | 57% | 33% | 0.26
Rob Blake | 97-03 | 6.13 | 1.06 | 0.98 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 30 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 76% | 54% | 0.37
Sergei Gonchar | 97-03 | 5.96 | 1.12 | 0.96 | 1.17 | 0.94 | -21 | 79 | 100 | 17 | 74% | 13% | 0.35
Eric Desjardins | 97-03 | 6.48 | 1.11 | 0.85 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 79 | 136 | 57 | 9 | 59% | 44% | 0.26
Brian Leetch | 97-03 | 6.16 | 1.18 | 1.23 | 0.96 | 0.88 | -52 | -26 | 26 | 4 | 87% | 52% | 0.44
Lidstrom's even-strength numbers are surprisingly unimpressive for this time period. He didn't start putting up big plus-minuses relative to team until 2003 and on. Pronger was very strong competition during this time period when he was on the ice. Rob Blake, Sergei Gonchar, and Brian Leetch also placed in the Norris voting multiple times. Blake and Leetch's even-strength numbers are unimpressive, and Gonchar didn't play the penalty kill back then. Scott Niedermayer and Eric Desjardins probably don't quite belong in this group, as seen by their lesser roles on special teams.
I'd say that the group of Stevens, Chelios, and MacInnis largely maintained their effectiveness until late in their career, and the fact that they were still a presence in Norris voting shouldn't be a mark against the league's defensemen on it's own. However, the group of defensemen was weak at this time. Among other defensemen, Pronger, Blake, and Leetch were the only defensemen that played big minutes in all situations and provided real competition for Lidstrom in Norris voting. Gonchar didn't PK, and Desjardins and Niedermayer didn't log big special teams minutes on the PP or PK. I do think that if Pronger had played full seasons over this time period he would be considered much better in an all-time sense and would have provided stronger competition for Lidstrom.
But overall, I think Lidstrom has been a late bloomer who has really improved his game after the age of 30. It's true that he didn't stand out far above players like MacInnis, Chelios, Stevens, etc, when they were nearing 40, but I don't think Lidstrom was at his best then either. IMO Lidstrom has improved since he began winning Norrises and he would have won more had he played at that level in the 90s. It's not just the competition getting weaker.