Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 27: Morgan Frost, C, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

[Rebels57]

Given the circumstances of the post I was replying to... Laughton or Vorobyev might be more valuable players by that point in time.

By the end of the 19-20 season, you expect a 4th liner and a player with 3rd line potential with 0 NHL games under his belt to be more valuable than a consistent 30 goal scorer?

If Hextall thought that he never would have signed JVR in the first place.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

I dont think there is more to see out of Laughton at this point. he pretty much is what he is. Nothing wrong with that, you need players like him on the bottom 6.

 

[CS]

Giroux, Voracek, Couturier, Konecny
Provorov, Ghost, Sanheim, Myers

Patrick???

 

[deadhead]

Getting back to Frost, looking around the league, I think the comparable might be Mikael Granlund, who is a grossly underrated player.
Grunland has a similar skill package, 5'10 185, 176 lbs when drafted.

"While scouts have noted his small size at five feet, ten inches, they were impressed with his vision on the ice."
"Granlund, who has a hockey IQ that’s off the charts,"

Granlund got off to a slow start due to a Finnish contract then the NHL lockout, so he really didn't get to play until he was 21.
29, 31, 32 ES points his first three years in more of a 2C/3C role, then he moved up to 1C and put up 45 and 45 at ES and 20 and 19 on the PP.
He has always put up really good E +/- numbers,
First three seasons 1.64 pp/60, Corsi 50.25, CorsiRel +1.52, xGF 53.09, xGFrel +0.99
Next two years 1.97 pp/60, Corsi 49.27, CorsiRel +1.30, xGF 58.9, xGFrel +6.70
Playoffs 1.70 pp/60, Corsi 49.83, CorsiRel +0.88; xGF 54.23, xGFrel +1.83

 

[Curufinwe]

Just checking to see if you were awake!

Nah, I forgot him. He'll have to replace Voracek or Konecny.

Really, you should be be able to protect 5 forwards and 4 dmen (9 total) or 7 forwards and 3 dmen (10 total).

 

[CS]

Just checking to see if you were awake!

Nah, I forgot him. He'll have to replace Voracek or Konecny.

Really, you should be be able to protect 5 forwards and 4 dmen (9 total) or 7 forwards and 3 dmen (10 total).

But you can't. We will lose the 2nd best of Sanheim/Myers/Morin.

Oh well.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

I wonder if Hextall would dangle JVR to the expansion draft to protect the kids if a side deal cannot be worked out. I am not sure how I feel about Morin. If he is exposed and the Flyers lose him it would not be the worst thing. Of course I am saying this as of now. Things could change with him by the time the expansion draft rolls around

 

[hatcher]

Getting back to Frost, looking around the league, I think the comparable might be Mikael Granlund, who is a grossly underrated player.
Grunland has a similar skill package, 5'10 185, 176 lbs when drafted.

"While scouts have noted his small size at five feet, ten inches, they were impressed with his vision on the ice."
"Granlund, who has a hockey IQ that’s off the charts,"

Granlund got off to a slow start due to a Finnish contract then the NHL lockout, so he really didn't get to play until he was 21.
29, 31, 32 ES points his first three years in more of a 2C/3C role, then he moved up to 1C and put up 45 and 45 at ES and 20 and 19 on the PP.
He has always put up really good E +/- numbers,
First three seasons 1.64 pp/60, Corsi 50.25, CorsiRel +1.52, xGF 53.09, xGFrel +0.99
Next two years 1.97 pp/60, Corsi 49.27, CorsiRel +1.30, xGF 58.9, xGFrel +6.70
Playoffs 1.70 pp/60, Corsi 49.83, CorsiRel +0.88; xGF 54.23, xGFrel +1.83

Granlund is a great little player. f***in ballsy too.

 

[FlyTimmo]

But you can't. We will lose the 2nd best of Sanheim/Myers/Morin.

Oh well.

We could potentially dangle a 1st round pick to protect the defenseman left open, if we believe that defenseman is worth a 1st round pick.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

The Flyers have built up an asset trove in which they should be able to easily work out a side deal to protect everyone they covet without being totally cleaned out. At this point I'm not really that concerned with getting everyone protected that they will need to.

 

[wankstifier]

By the end of the 19-20 season, you expect a 4th liner and a player with 3rd line potential with 0 NHL games under his belt to be more valuable than a consistent 30 goal scorer?

If Hextall thought that he never would have signed JVR in the first place.

It's a lousy "game" of finding surplus value. JVR is paid over market price for his on ice production (more dollars to avoid trade restrictions like NMC or NTC). I'm all for the 30 goals he adds, but he'll take up $21 MM in cap in 2 years.

There's upside in Laughton's offense--30+ pts at 5v5. Due to shitty deployment, his next contract will probably look like a 4th liner's. LW/C flexibility with top 6 5v5 scoring at $2-3 MM. How do you value that?

If Vorobyev's a good 3C in two years, I'd also consider protecting his contract over JVR's.

 

[Rebels57]

It's a lousy "game" of finding surplus value. JVR is paid over market price for his on ice production (more dollars to avoid trade restrictions like NMC or NTC). I'm all for the 30 goals he adds, but he'll take up $21 MM in cap in 2 years.

There's upside in Laughton's offense--30+ pts at 5v5. Due to ****ty deployment, his next contract will probably look like a 4th liner's. LW/C flexibility with top 6 5v5 scoring at $2-3 MM. How do you value that?

If Vorobyev's a good 3C in two years, I'd also consider protecting his contract over JVR's.

Good thing you're not GM I guess.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Good thing you're not GM I guess.

The ole "good thing you're not GM" comment.

IMO, it is a pretty rude comment unless I say it to someone.

 

[wankstifier]

Good thing you're not GM I guess.

The ole "good thing you're not GM" comment.

IMO, it is a pretty rude comment unless I say it to someone.

Meh, it's more lazy than rude.

 

[Rebels57]

Meh, it's more lazy than rude.

Im sure it took a lot of time and effort to come up with the conclusion that the Flyers might consider protecting Laughton or Vorobyev over JVR and his freshly inked contract just 2 years into it.

 

[wankstifier]

Im sure it took a lot of time and effort to come up with the conclusion that the Flyers might consider protecting Laughton or Vorobyev over JVR and his freshly inked contract just 2 years into it.

The Flyers' need for JVR might expire in 2-3 years. They addressed a short term deficiency in goal scoring and overpaid a bit in years and dollars. UFAs with experience and a track record of success only get signed to overpayments. The Flyers won't be getting surplus value from JVR unless he repeats or exceeds his expected production and/or the cap continues to increase into year 5 of the contract.

Vorobyev and Laughton comparatively will be making a pittance. Laughton seems like a decent breakout candidate (something of a Karlsson lite) and Vorobyev looks like a good prospect with middle 6 NHL upside. If these players break out, which seems reasonably possible, then they might be worth protecting over JVR.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Cap keeps going up. People are judging $7M on the same level it meant previously. It’s not.

 

[deadhead]

Who knows how people will be playing in two years? The decision will be made after the 2019-20 season.
Lindblom could be a 30-30 guy, or not.
Allison or Ratcliffe could explode on the season or struggle to get out of LHV.
Vorobyev could be the 4C, top PK and PP2 and be putting up 13-14 minutes a night.

Conversely, Voracek and JVR could continue their production or slow down and start to slip.

 

[Doodootheclown]

The Gifted: Why Flyers prospect Morgan Frost needs to find...

Excellent article, I thought. Goes into Frosts pace of play a lot.

“You still have to have an idea as far as what’s going on and what the support and gap is, but instead of getting to the offensive zone first and giving yourself more time to play in the offensive zone, you’re going to try to figure out what might happen before you get there and then never get there because you get caught. It’s not like it’s a significant difference of speed but sometimes a second or two makes all the difference in the world. I think that will be something that he has to go through. He’s not used to skating hard through the neutral zone with the puck, and some guys might be good skaters down here but up there everybody skates well,” Gordon continued, unprompted.

 

[Curufinwe]

As it stands, only Laughton, Hagg, and Sanheim will be eligible for the ED. Lindblom is probable.

It doesn't matter if Myers spends all of 18-19 and 19-20 on the Phantoms and plays zero NHL games; he still won't be exempt from a 2020 ED.

 

[wankstifier]

It doesn't matter if Myers spends all of 18-19 and 19-20 on the Phantoms and plays zero NHL games; he still won't be exempt from a 2020 ED.

This was from a while ago. I think I was talking about 2019?

 

[Rebels57]

The Gifted: Why Flyers prospect Morgan Frost needs to find...

Excellent article, I thought. Goes into Frosts pace of play a lot.

“You still have to have an idea as far as what’s going on and what the support and gap is, but instead of getting to the offensive zone first and giving yourself more time to play in the offensive zone, you’re going to try to figure out what might happen before you get there and then never get there because you get caught. It’s not like it’s a significant difference of speed but sometimes a second or two makes all the difference in the world. I think that will be something that he has to go through. He’s not used to skating hard through the neutral zone with the puck, and some guys might be good skaters down here but up there everybody skates well,” Gordon continued, unprompted.

I read that yesterday. Interesting but it does fail to mention that some players DO have success at the NHL level slowing the game down to their pace.

 

[Magua]

I read that yesterday. Interesting but it does fail to mention that some players DO have success at the NHL level slowing the game down to their pace.

Big players who can muscle their way with guys on their hips down low. Smaller players can't afford to not move their feet because puck control through contact isn't his forte. The article makes the interesting point that Frost needs to use his top gear skating in the NZ to get to the OZ, where he can then slow it down. He does glide a lot through the NZ, or in general. You have to play ahead of the pace of the opposition to ramp it down and confuse opponents.

 

[landsbergfan]

Big players who can muscle their way with guys on their hips down low. Smaller players can't afford to not move their feet because puck control through contact isn't his forte. The article makes the interesting point that Frost needs to use his top gear skating in the NZ to get to the OZ, where he can then slow it down. He does glide a lot through the NZ, or in general. You have to play ahead of the pace of the opposition to ramp it down and confuse opponents.

I just found the article on The Athletic and read through it. Found that interesting as well. Obviously it is something he can work on against his current OHL competition, but I do wish he was "forced" to work on it. Have you caught many of their games this year? I haven't been able to catch many yet this year due to kids/fortnite/flyers/trips. Have you seen a difference yet? The game I was all ready to watch got postponed.

 

[deadhead]

Big players who can muscle their way with guys on their hips down low. Smaller players can't afford to not move their feet because puck control through contact isn't his forte. The article makes the interesting point that Frost needs to use his top gear skating in the NZ to get to the OZ, where he can then slow it down. He does glide a lot through the NZ, or in general. You have to play ahead of the pace of the opposition to ramp it down and confuse opponents.

I wonder if its to conserve energy as the top center for his junior team. How many minutes does he play a night?
In the NHL, he'll be the 3C playing 13-15 minutes so no need to go half speed, but that may take time to learn.
As he fills out and gets stronger, his stamina should improve as well.