Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part LVI

[Machinehead]

Kakko was pretty good at the end there and now he got a taste of what it takes to succeed in the NHL.
I see him following the same path as Svechnikov..

Oh man, I sure f***in hope so.

 

[Machinehead]

Ohh gotcha.. But still IDK how I feel about that.
He's a lock for PP time in front of the net but he's just not consistent enough @ 5v5.

I know, crazy idea but if we shift him out of position, I'm still on board with trying him at #2C.

I think that move will wake his ass up plus he's decent on FO's and good defensively..

You think Kreider is good defensively? I have hope for you yet!

 

[NYR]

Oh man, I sure f***in hope so.

OK you're gonna have to explain this to me like I'm a 9 year old lol

KEEP SYSTEMS IN MIND!

 

[NYR]

You think Kreider is good defensively? I have hope for you yet!

Yes.. That's his most consistent attribute

 

[NYR]

Yes.. That's his most consistent attribute

And to think I seen that all with my eyes lol

 

[Kupo]

Seeing people pencil Lafreniere in at 1LW is awfully reminiscent of seeing people do the same thing with Kakko last season.

His place on the team should be at 3LW, behind Panarin and Kreider, unless one of them make the switch to RW (which probably means Buch is a goner).

 

[Machinehead]

OK you're gonna have to explain this to me like I'm a 9 year old lol

KEEP SYSTEMS IN MIND!

Ok, so zero is replacement level. That's the line in the very middle. That's a nothing player. Doesn't help, doesn't hurt. A real world example is Trevor Lewis from LA. Everything he does is right on zero. Each number above or below that (1, 2, 3/-1, -2, -3) is a standard deviation. There's a whole math thing to standard deviation but just think of it as a tier.

So Svechnikov (in most categories) is three tiers better than Mr. Nobody. Kakko, regrettably, is three tiers worse than a nothing NHL 4th liner.

In other words, Svechnikov really really good, Kakko really really bad.

That doesn't mean it's a tragedy! This is what an 18-year-old that doesn't belong in the NHL looks like. I just think they didn't wanna send him down because it would have been a whole thing. He was an outstanding prospect when we drafted him and there's no reason to believe that has changed. He was simply less ready than we thought he was. That's literally it.

And here's more good news: some other analytics nerd told me (and this is just one nerd's opinion) that Lafreniere was probably NHL replacement-level at 16. I cannot stress enough that this is a different class of prospect.

And yes, our system sucks, whereas Carolina plays exactly how I wish we did.

 

[NYR]

Ok, so zero is replacement level. That's the line in the very middle. That's a nothing player. Doesn't help, doesn't hurt. A real world example is Trevor Lewis from LA. Everything he does is right on zero. Each number above or below that (1, 2, 3/-1, -2, -3) is a standard deviation. There's a whole math thing to standard deviation but just think of it as a tier.

So Svechnikov (in most categories) is three tiers better than Mr. Nobody. Kakko, regrettably, is three tiers worse than a nothing NHL 4th liner.

In other words, Svechnikov really really good, Kakko really really bad.

That doesn't mean it's a tragedy! This is what an 18-year-old that doesn't belong in the NHL looks like. I just think they didn't wanna send him down because it would have been a whole thing. He was an outstanding prospect when we drafted him and there's no reason to believe that has changed. He was simply less ready than we thought he was. That's literally it.

And here's more good news: some other analytics nerd told me (and this is just one nerd's opinion) that Lafreniere was probably NHL replacement-level at 16. I cannot stress enough that this is a different class of prospect.

And yes, our system sucks, whereas Carolina plays exactly how I wish we did.

OK understood.. But is there a way we can run up the same chart for just the playoffs when he was arguably our best FWD?

 

[kovazub94]

Man, the Kravtsov saga is a roller coaster. Started the season as one of the top prospects in the the world, finished it with a lot of people thinking he was a flop and overrated. Two months later people are penciling him into the top-9 again.

Instant gratification society couple with desire to immediately share with the world the first thing that comes to one’s mind.

 

[charliemurphy]

Personally, I will be happy if he starts on the third line and works his way into shifts on the second. For me, that's a very successful rookie season.

Which I think is what we will see. I think Quinn goes with a 3rd line of Lafreniere-Chytil-Gauthier.
I think if he lives up to expectations then it won’t be long until he’s on the top 2 lines. Would be crazy to not eventually have him and Kakko play with a strong defensive C to feed off one another.
I also can’t help but think that it will be a matter of time once Kreider’s NTC turns into LNTC that he’s moved... although a 3rd line of Kreider-Chytil-Gauthier sounds like a good problem to have for a few years and hopefully coincides with the defense being much improved and the team starts to make some serious noise.

 

[Machinehead]

As Rangers fans, we've trained ourselves to temper expectations. I get that.

That being said, while Lafreniere obliviously doesn't occupy the A1 tier (with Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, McDavid, and maybe Dahlin) he's absolutely in that next tier with Kane, MacKinnon, Eichel, Barkov, Hedman, Tavares, and Stamkos. He's an out-of-the-box franchise-altering player. Kakko was never that and you can't show me a single scouting report that said he was that.

I fully expect Lafreniere to be a 100-point player in the NHL at some point.

f*** it. We deserve to be excited about something for a change. What's gonna happen? I, a Rangers fan, might end up disappointed?

 

[Machinehead]

OK understood.. But is there a way we can run up the same chart for just the playoffs when he was arguably our best FWD?

It might exist. I'll take a look.

 

[smoneil]

Seeing people pencil Lafreniere in at 1LW is awfully reminiscent of seeing people do the same thing with Kakko last season.

His place on the team should be at 3LW, behind Panarin and Kreider, unless one of them make the switch to RW (which probably means Buch is a goner).

I wasn't thinking of them in terms of 1st, 2nd, 3rd line in any kind of traditional sense. If anything, I figured that the Panarin line or the KCB line would be the more regular "first" lines. If the team needs a boost, you put Zib with some more seasoned wingers for a bit. Aside from the fourth line (Lemieux/Howden/Gauthier), my top three lines were interchangeable on a day to day basis as "1st, 2nd, or 3rd."

 

[NYR]

It might exist. I'll take a look.

Please do... Because that's his only TOI that really matters

 

[smoneil]

Which I think is what we will see. I think Quinn goes with a 3rd line of Lafreniere-Chytil-Gauthier.
I think if he lives up to expectations then it won’t be long until he’s on the top 2 lines. Would be crazy to not eventually have him and Kakko play with a strong defensive C to feed off one another.
I also can’t help but think that it will be a matter of time once Kreider’s NTC turns into LNTC that he’s moved... although a 3rd line of Kreider-Chytil-Gauthier sounds like a good problem to have for a few years and hopefully coincides with the defense being much improved and the team starts to make some serious noise.

See, to me, that hurts his AND Chytil's development. I'd rather our high end wing prospect enter the league with a veteran center rather than a 20-year old still looking to cement his spot. The only one of those we HAVE is Zibanejad. I'd rather Chytil get a string of games with wingers who can help him grow into a top 6 center (kid's still only 20 years old). Having him be the most "veteran" player on his line is asking for trouble.

Edited to add, this is all just a hypothetical "beginning of camp" approach. Once they are on the ice, you never know who will really resonate with each other, and you have to go with who has chemistry.

 

[Edge]

As Rangers fans, we've trained ourselves to temper expectations. I get that.

That being said, while Lafreniere obliviously doesn't occupy the A1 tier (with Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, McDavid, and maybe Dahlin) he's absolutely in that next tier with Kane, MacKinnon, Eichel, Barkov, Hedman, Tavares, and Stamkos. He's an out-of-the-box franchise-altering player. Kakko was never that and you can't show me a single scouting report that said he was that.

I fully expect Lafreniere to be a 100-point player in the NHL at some point.

f*** it. We deserve to be excited about something for a change. What's gonna happen? I, a Rangers fan, might end up disappointed?

The only point I'll disagree on is the Kakko statement. He was/is definitely seen as having Franchise player potential, albeit he is not viewed as being on par with Lafreniere or as having as high of a probability to be that guy.

 

[Machinehead]

Unfortunately, nobody put it into pretty charts, but Kakko was the 4th best Ranger in that series by expected goal differential.

He came in behind Chytil, Fox, and Lindgren, in that order. Fox and Lindgren I knew about because Carolina scored 11 goals against us and Fox was on the ice for precisely zero. He's so f***ing good.

That's really good news about Chytil for whatever the sample is worth.

So yeah, Kakko was as good as he looked.

@NYR

 

[Machinehead]

The only point I'll disagree on is the Kakko statement. He was/is definitely seen as having Franchise player potential, albeit he is not viewed as being on par with Lafreniere or as having as high of a probability to be that guy.

No, that's fair. I just feel like the expectation was that Kakko could be. But then again, anybody could be. Hank was in the 7th round.

Lafreniere is. That's the expectation.

 

[Edge]

As Rangers fans, we've trained ourselves to temper expectations. I get that.

Not to quote the same post twice, because it's annoying, but this part is especially spot on and something that is going to be a real challenge for the fans.

There's a difference between a guy selected 9th, 6th, or even 4th compared to the top pick in a draft.

Beyond that, there's a difference between a guy like Nugent-Hopkins first overall or Hischier first overall, compared to Lafreniere.

Lafreniere is a different "day one" breed than this franchise has ever selected. And with that, it's a totally different mindset as well.

Sometimes we set the bar so high, it's impossible for these kids to meet it. In Lafreniere's case, you're literally talking about a player who can, and probably should hit the 100 point level in the modern NHL. That is a fair level of expectation.

 

[Edge]

No, that's fair. I just feel like the expectation was that Kakko could be. But then again, anybody could be. Hank was in the 7th round.

Lafreniere is. That's the expectation.

100 percent agree.

Kakko is in the "could" category, albeit a high probability could.

Lafreniere is in the "should" category. If he doesn't quite hit that level, it would be considered a disappointment.

I've compared Lafreniere/Kakko to MacKinnon and Barkov from an offensive production standpoint.

MacKinnon has hit that roughly 40-43 goal, 100-110 point level, whereas Barkov is maybe just a notch below that in 35 goal, 90-95 point range.

If Lafreniere and Kakko hit on their full potential, or damn close, that's more or less the difference I can see existing there.

 

[Machinehead]

Not to quote the same post twice, because it's annoying, but this part is especially spot on and something that is going to be a real challenge for the fans.

There's a difference between a guy selected 9th, 6th, or even 4th compared to the top pick in a draft.

Beyond that, there's a difference between a guy like Nugent-Hopkins first overall or Hischier first overall, compared to Lafreniere.

Lafreniere is a different "day one" breed than this franchise has ever selected. And with that, it's a totally different mindset as well.

Sometimes we set the bar so high, it's impossible for these kids to meet it. In Lafreniere's case, you're literally talking about a player who can, and probably should hit the 100 point level in the modern NHL. That is a fair level of expectation.

Rewind back to 2017 and I thought the Yankees were set up for a dynasty while Liverpool were set up for...not that.

Here in 2020, the Yankees have done nothing but frustrate me for three seasons and Liverpool is a fully-automated 18-man murder hornet that never should have been released into the wild. I've given up expecting anything in sports.

All I know is, having this pick is fun and I'm just going to enjoy it until I'm not enjoying it, if we ever get to that point.

 

[NYR]

Unfortunately, nobody put it into pretty charts, but Kakko was the 4th best Ranger in that series by expected goal differential.

He came in behind Chytil, Fox, and Lindgren, in that order. Fox and Lindgren I knew about because Carolina scored 11 goals against us and Fox was on the ice for precisely zero. He's so f***ing good.

That's really good news about Chytil for whatever the sample is worth.

So yeah, Kakko was as good as he looked.

@NYR

Ohh so the plot thickens lol

Where are Panarin, Zib, Buch, Stome and Kreider ranked in this scenario?

Svechnikov didn't exactly set the world on fire in his first season either.

See where I'm going with this?

 

[NYR Viper]

I’m warming up to the idea of Hanifan if the deal was something like ADA + Buch for Lindholm + Hanifan. He’d be a nice guy who can slot up or down the left side for the foreseeable future. His contract is pretty much on par with a good, not great 2nd pairing d-man and that’s assuming flat caps for the rest of his contract. If he takes even a small step forward he’s a bargain and if he gets passed by someone like Miller or Robertson or whoever he’s perfectly suited as a 2nd pairing guy.

 

[Machinehead]

Ohh so the plot thickens lol

Where are Panarin, Zib, Buch, Stome and Kreider ranked in this scenario?

Svechnikov didn't exactly set the world on fire in his first season either.

See where I'm going with this?

I like where you're going with this!

Kreider and Strome were middle of the road. Panarin was bleh and Zib and Buch were towards the bottom. That makes sense. I thought the big guys looked slow. I give them a Mulligan in this strange time but we need them to come out swinging next time.

 

[NYR]

I like where you're going with this!

Kreider and Strome were middle of the road. Panarin was bleh and Zib and Buch were towards the bottom. That makes sense. I thought the big guys looked slow. I give them a Mulligan in this strange time but we need them to come out swinging next time.

I give them nothing.
They're vets!

And I seen it all with my very own eye balls.
Craziness