Robson Division Semifinals: Orillia Terriers vs Regina Pats

Dreakmur

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Mar 25, 2008
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I would say he's clearly "not 3rd". My days of putting Plante with Roy and Hasek ended probably 2-3 years ago.

However, in the playoffs he's a clear #1 and I'm not aware of a case in which it would be particularly close.

Let's not pretend that either of us believe that we're just going to look at each goalie's play-off resume here. Both you and I evaluate goalies in about the same way - their regular season resume builds the bulk of their resume, and what they do in the play-offs, or other high-stake games adds to it. Hasek very clearly has the best regular season resume. Roy very clearly has the best play-off resume. Does Roy's play-off resume add enough to surpass Hasek? I don't think so, not with the width of the regular season gap.

:laugh: I see the word "wide" as so subjective! We could perfectly agree on the quantitative difference but disagree on what word to describe it. For the record, I'd say Roy over Brodeur is wide, and any post I've ever made comparing the two will confirm that is indeed my stance :thumbu:

anyway, what I'm trying to say is it's semantics. I think Roy is significantly better, in a "Gretzky vs. Morenz" kind of way, but ultimately it's up to the voters how significant it really is.

There is no "Gretzky" of goalies. The gap between the top half dozen is not wide, which is why they continue to fall in the draft.

Really, take a look and compare the resumes of Roy and Brodeur. I don't think you'll find a huge different.

Maybe this will help. I know that puck movement and offensive production are not the exact same thing, but they are at least linked. There are very few point producers who weren't good at moving the puck, and though there are guys who moved it well without scoring points, they're not that common. The 7 year VsXD score for our guys are as follows:

Pratt: 710
Seibert: 620
Vadnais: 587 (or 610 if it's correct that he only scored 6 points as a forward in 1969 as the evidence suggests; currently this season is omitted)
Hall: 580 (details described earlier in the draft thread)
Johnson: 472
Savard: 466

Tremblay: 701 (includes WHA)
Robinson: 644
Keith: 614 (includes this season's 95 score, 4th place shattenkirk is the benchmark, the top 3 are clear outliers)
Larson: 611
Harper: 294
Ramsey: 286

Pratt and Seibert stand up well to Tremblay and Robinson, both statistically and in the accounts of their play. Vadnais and Hall are very good mid-level ATD puck movers but Keith and Larson probably have them by a small margin. It's actually Johnson and Savard, the supposed weak links, that show up as the strengths here. Star ATD puckmovers they are not, but my that measure I don't see what would make them more exploitable than Harper or Ramsey.

Are you really using Pratt's numbers without adjusting for the War Years? We both know that's bogus. There's no way you actually believe he's the best puck-moving defenseman in this series...

As I've said before, Brodeur adds to the puck-moving ability of my blue line. Yeah, Ramsey and Harper are not strong in the skill department, but they don't have to be. They both have very mobile partners as a well a goalie who will do a lot of the initial puck-handling for them.

In addition to a defenseman's general efficiency in moving the puck, their size contributes a lot to their durability in standing up to the forecheck over the course of a series. Duncan Keith and J.C. Tremblay, for example, have been pretty unflappable in real life against NHL/WHA level competition, but in an ATD environment they're a bit shrimpy and stand out as guys who the likes of Tocchet, Hunter, Nolan and Tkachuk can really wear down. Here are the adjusted sizes of our blueliners:

Pratt: 6'6", 242
Savard: 6'5", 230
Seibert: 6'5", 228
Hall: 6'3", 215
Johnson: 6'3", 210
Vadnais: 6'3", 205

Robinson: 6'5", 235
Ramsey: 6'4", 205
Harper: 6'3", 220
Larson: 6'1", 205
Keith: 6'1", 192
Tremblay: 6'1", 190

Regina's blueliners have an average of 1.7" and 14 pounds on Orillia's guys.

Size is something that all these players already used to their advantage, or in some cases overcame, during their careers. If Keith was bigger, he'd be better, which would be reflected in his career achievements and voting recognition.

In addition, let's look at who the four biggest forechecking threats are on each team:

Tkachuk
Tocchet
Nolan
Hunter

Lindsay
Mackell
Ramsay
Walker

I'm just guessing on the last two for Orillia. Because Lindsay and Mackell are the only two Orillia wingers with a real appreciable physical game that can cause trouble. Ramsay and Walker would be the next most effective due to their smarts, but the ones who really have a shot at forcing turnovers through intimidation are Lindsay and Mackell. The problem is, Regina has four guys like that and they are going up against a much smaller defense corps with a lower overall puck moving ability. What was originally brought up as an area of concern for Regina is something I think Orillia actually needs to worry about more.

For starters, great puck movement is the best way to deal with a strong fore-check. Teams most often get hemmed in their zone because they can't make a good first pass. Yes, fore-checking pressure can cause rushed passes, but great puck-moving will beat a fore-check more often that not.

This is also where the Martin Brodeur X-factor comes in. With the best puck-moving goalie of all time handling the dump-ins, it makes it extra hard to create an effective fore-check.

As fore-checkers go, why shoudn't Darryl Sittler and Mark Recchi be considered pretty good here?

You find this stuff and then don't put it in bios? Sounds very unlike you.

As for Foyston, the general impression seems to be he was not deficient. Put it this way, we question his all-around mettle a lot less than we do Bernie Morris. I think the biggest reason is because he was awarded that trophy once as the best "all-round" player in the league. But I don' actually know if we have much else on him.

I'll have to look around for it, I thought I already put some more in the bio. But as of right, you may be right.

I don't know if that is more important, actually. Is that really how it works in real life? I think you want that game breaker on your line because he's the one who will actually make something happen in the crucial minutes when everything tightens up and the best defensive players are determined to stop you.

It absolutely is easier to game plan around one player.

Foyston was very good. He made my top-60 list in the project. He was always there, often went deep and scored as expected, if not better. I don't mean to downplay him. But he's not Gilmour and he's not Lafleur.

As a player, not he's not either one of those guys. As a purely play-off scorer, I don't see why he shouldn't be considered close to Gilmour, and better than Lafleur.

Lafleur was "about the same" in the playoffs? I'm not sure what to say to that. Lafleur was so good in the regular season that his numbers approached "impossible to duplicate in the playoffs" levels - like we all know Lemieux, Gretzky, Jagr and Crosby did. The fact that he led the playoffs in points three times and the cartoonish margins he outscored his teammates over four years should tell you all you need to know about his playoff ability. He didn't just "meet expectations".

During Lafleur's 5 year peak, he only led Montreal play-off scoring by a wide margin once. He led it a 2nd time by a few points. 2 other times, he was the co-leader. The 5th season, he was injured, so obviously didn't lead.

You know what the above statement really ignores? games played. Malkin is quite the injury case and I freely admit he will miss one game in this series with some sort of ailment. But he'll be replaced by Bernie Nicholls (VsX 77.4 after Gretzky adjustment), not a Malkin-sized pocket of air. His VsX may say 90.7 but that doesn't mean that in the other 5-6 games he will merely play at a 90.7 level. In his best 7 seasons he played at a level that would have earned him a VsX score of 102.7 (yes, significantly ahead of Orillia 1st line center Bill Cowley) and that is what you can expect from Malkin when he plays. Recchi, of course, never missed games in his prime. And good for him, he's a hell of a guy and I love him to bits, but no one seriously thinks he's a Malkin-level talent, or close to it.

You say that like Bill Cowley never missed a game.....

You sure? Lewis scored at a level that would have made him an ATD 2nd line caliber player even if he was one-dimensional; yet, he was more known for his defense than his offense.

I've never researched him, but I do read the bios... and based on the bios, yeah, I'm sure.

Not every single one of his performances has been great. But he has a Smythe trophy (I'm on record saying he didn't deserve it but the dude was 2nd at worst and scored an incredible 36 points) and already has one of the highest playoff VsX scores of all-time, a symptom of consistently being an important player to a team that goes deep in the playoffs.

His play-offs are just like his regular seasons. When he's healthy, he scores. That doesn't add to his resume, nor does it diminish.

I think he's just as good in the play-offs, but definitely not better.

The two best defensive players out of our 12 top-6 forwards are Gilmour and Lewis, with the lesser of the two, Lewis, being 1-2 tiers ahead of anyone else. I'd say the defensive mismatch is clear.

I am quite confident saying Ted Lindsay is every bit the defensive player than Herbie Lewis. Based on the information in each of their respective biographies, I think there's a strong case to say Lindsay is better.
 
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seventieslord

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Let's not pretend that either of us believe that we're just going to look at each goalie's play-off resume here. Both you and I evaluate goalies in about the same way - their regular season resume builds the bulk of their resume, and what they do in the play-offs, or other high-stake games adds to it. Hasek very clearly has the best regular season resume. Roy very clearly has the best play-off resume. Does Roy's play-off resume add enough to surpass Hasek? I don't think so, not with the width of the regular season gap.

I disagree, the regular season gap is a lot smaller numerically than a lot of people want to admit... but that's neither here nor there. If your argument in our playoff series is "Roy is no Hasek in the regular season", then he's looking pretty good.

There is no "Gretzky" of goalies. The gap between the top half dozen is not wide, which is why they continue to fall in the draft.

Really, take a look and compare the resumes of Roy and Brodeur. I don't think you'll find a huge different.

I do think it's a huge difference. One consistently posted outstanding personal numbers year after year, for different teams, that sometimes allowed a lot of shots, sometimes a few, sometimes took a lot of penalties, sometimes didn't. The other posted numbers that were always at least average, but rarely elite, for teams that always allowed very few shots and took very few penalties.

Brodeur was consistent and durable and always at least good, and maybe most importantly his team clued into the importance of not taking penalties, and playing your best goalies as much as possible, before the rest of the league did, allowing him to post some higher win totals and have an easier time being recognized for awards - and as great as consistency is, that's not a series-stealing attribute. Roy had "it" like no one else before or since.

Are you really using Pratt's numbers without adjusting for the War Years? We both know that's bogus. There's no way you actually believe he's the best puck-moving defenseman in this series...

I'm not saying I think he's the best puck moving defenseman in the series. Tremblay, both anecdotally and numerically, should hold that title. But I see no reason to adjust defensemen for the war years. We adjust guys like Cowley because of the other forwards who were gone. What benchmark-affecting defensemen were gone?

As I've said before, Brodeur adds to the puck-moving ability of my blue line. Yeah, Ramsey and Harper are not strong in the skill department, but they don't have to be. They both have very mobile partners as a well a goalie who will do a lot of the initial puck-handling for them.

...That helps.

Size is something that all these players already used to their advantage, or in some cases overcame, during their careers. If Keith was bigger, he'd be better, which would be reflected in his career achievements and voting recognition.

while that is true to an extent, it doesn't mean we can completely throw out the attributes of our players and act like they don't matter. Your defense corps is significantly smaller and facing a significantly tougher blueline.

It would be worse for sure, if you didn't have Brodeur helping them out. But at the same time, shouldn't I be saying, "well his puckhandling is already factored into how good he is overall"? Because it absolutely was. I'm not going to do that though; we should be able to compartmentalize our players. Brodeur is significantly worse at stopping the puck than Roy, and significantly better at handling the puck. How those two factors come together to decide the series (if at all) can be up to the voters.

As fore-checkers go, why shoudn't Darryl Sittler and Mark Recchi be considered pretty good here?

"pretty good", I guess, but then so are Lewis, Gilmour, Rolston, probably Gottselig, and probably a couple more of your guys too. We can see the six who are real standouts, though.

As a player, not he's not either one of those guys. As a purely play-off scorer, I don't see why he shouldn't be considered close to Gilmour, and better than Lafleur.

...did you imply Gilmour is a better playoff scorer than Lafleur? That's just not true. What do you base this on? In a few recent posts of yours I've gotten the sense that you judge a playoff scorer by how good his stats are relative to the regular season. That may help shed some light on who's "clutch", but if a player is better he's just better.

Guy Lafleur's five best playoff VsX scores are 124, 115, 100, 100, 89. There are a half dozen players with five better playoffs than that.

Gilmour's 140, 100, 90, 88, 53 are also excellent, top-30 all-time, but he's not a Lafleur-level gamebreaker, even if he can explode for some big moments.

Foyston is in Gilmour's range as a playoff scorer, though - 143, 111, 100, 75, 40 - though with these older players the single season numbers are based on such small samples.

During Lafleur's 5 year peak, he only led Montreal play-off scoring by a wide margin once. He led it a 2nd time by a few points. 2 other times, he was the co-leader. The 5th season, he was injured, so obviously didn't lead.

Just like Crosby isn’t going to lead the Penguins in scoring every game, every series or even every couple of series, when you back up and look at the larger sample he has clearly been their best scorer and player. In Lafleur’s case it’s the same thing. One guy finishes within two points of him here, never close again. Another guy within two points, never close again. Robinson ties him, never within seven points again. Another guy ties him, was never within six points before that. And so on. Over those five years it’s clear who was driving the bus, because once you zoom out and look at the big picture he has 32 more points than anyone else, and 40% more points per game than anyone else. Getting too caught up in small samples is not seeing the forest for the trees.

But anyway, Foyston and Gilmour are just not Lafleur level players, not in the regular season, not in the playoffs. From 1975-1979, Lafleur had 106 playoff points and the next highest were Lemaire and Shutt (his linemates) with 74 and 68. And this sin't just because he advanced far every year - His points per game average was 24% higher than any other player in that time (Sittler, as it happens).

Foyston can't claim such a thing. From 1914-1920, the span that includes his four best playoffs, he had 36 points in 23 games, which was the most in that span, but in his case it actually was because he played the most games (which is not a bad thing). But Nighbor, Taylor, Lalonde and Morris all had better PPG averages than him over this period. He was simply not the dominant postseason scorer that a player like Lafleur was.

You say that like Bill Cowley never missed a game.....

Actually, that's fair. He missed only two games in 1941 and 1937, both worth about a 4% boost to his score, but in 1939 it was 14 games, which meant he was really playing at a 134 level. By my rough guess, he would get about 47 more points to his total 7 year score, or about 6-7 to his VsX. Apparently you're looking at a different sheet than me, so you can correct me if I'm wrong, but on a per-game basis it looks like Malkin and Cowley are very similar producers.

I've never researched him, but I do read the bios... and based on the bios, yeah, I'm sure.

I am quite confident saying Ted Lindsay is every bit the defensive player than Herbie Lewis. Based on the information in each of their respective biographies, I think there's a strong case to say Lindsay is better.

why?
 
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Dreakmur

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I'm not saying I think he's the best puck moving defenseman in the series. Tremblay, both anecdotally and numerically, should hold that title. But I see no reason to adjust defensemen for the war years. We adjust guys like Cowley because of the other forwards who were gone. What benchmark-affecting defensemen were gone?

Well, first of all, some guys just thrive with less competition. So, weaker forwards, could have easily made a significant impact on the scoring among defensemen.

Perhaps more importantly, even if no good defensemen left for war, the pool of talent looks pretty sickly. It appears that Pratt hit his offensive peak just as the prior generation of good defensemen retired, and before the next generation came along.

while that is true to an extent, it doesn't mean we can completely throw out the attributes of our players and act like they don't matter. Your defense corps is significantly smaller and facing a significantly tougher blueline.

Yes, my defensemen wear smaller clothes. I think they the superior group of players regardless.

...did you imply Gilmour is a better playoff scorer than Lafleur?

Relative to their regular season scoring, yes.

That's just not true. What do you base this on? In a few recent posts of yours I've gotten the sense that you judge a playoff scorer by how good his stats are relative to the regular season. That may help shed some light on who's "clutch", but if a player is better he's just better.

Guy Lafleur's five best playoff VsX scores are 124, 115, 100, 100, 89. There are a half dozen players with five better playoffs than that.

Gilmour's 140, 100, 90, 88, 53 are also excellent, top-30 all-time, but he's not a Lafleur-level gamebreaker, even if he can explode for some big moments.

Foyston is in Gilmour's range as a playoff scorer, though - 143, 111, 100, 75, 40 - though with these older players the single season numbers are based on such small samples.

Relative to their regular season scoring, Gilmour and Foyston raise their level of production. Lafleur doesn't. That's my point. Gilmour and Foyston get additional value in the play-offs, and Lafleur is exactly what he was in the regular season.... that's still the best player of the three, and by a wide margin, but it's a smaller gap because they get better and he doesn't.

Actually, that's fair. He missed only two games in 1941 and 1937, both worth about a 4% boost to his score, but in 1939 it was 14 games, which meant he was really playing at a 134 level. By my rough guess, he would get about 47 more points to his total 7 year score, or about 6-7 to his VsX. Apparently you're looking at a different sheet than me, so you can correct me if I'm wrong, but on a per-game basis it looks like Malkin and Cowley are very similar producers.

Yes, Cowley and Malkin are eerily similar.


The evidence suggests that. There is very little anecdotal evidence of Lewis' defensive game.... unless I'm missing a lot of it.
 

jarek

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Relative to their regular season scoring, Gilmour and Foyston raise their level of production. Lafleur doesn't. That's my point. Gilmour and Foyston get additional value in the play-offs, and Lafleur is exactly what he was in the regular season.... that's still the best player of the three, and by a wide margin, but it's a smaller gap because they get better and he doesn't.

This is the problem people have with the Andersons and Lemieuxs.. it isn't hard to get better when the standard you set in the regular season wasn't that high to begin with. Lafleur's regular season standard was very high, so to surpass it would be quite a challenge.

How do you account for this? More and more I'm getting on board with doing away with the idea that the ATD playoffs should be considered an actual playoff.
 

Dreakmur

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This is the problem people have with the Andersons and Lemieuxs.. it isn't hard to get better when the standard you set in the regular season wasn't that high to begin with. Lafleur's regular season standard was very high, so to surpass it would be quite a challenge.

How do you account for this? More and more I'm getting on board with doing away with the idea that the ATD playoffs should be considered an actual playoff.

I'm not sure why this is so complicated. Some guys significantly raise their games in the play-offs. Some guys significantly drop. Most stay about the same as they were I the regular season.

In the regular season, let's say Lafleur gets a score of 90 out of 100. In the play-offs, he didn't get significantly better or worse, so I would keep his score at a 90 for the play-offs.

Now, let's do Doug Gilmour, who I'll give a score of 75. In the play-offs, he significantly raises his game, so I would boost him to an 80. He's still not Guy Lafleur, but he's closer that he was in the regular season.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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Larry Robinson is probably the best puck mover in this series at even strength. During his offensive prime in the late 70s, he was basically Dennis Potvin's equal at even strength offense, while taking a backseat to Guy Lapointe on the power play.

Basically, looking at Robinson's overall numbers will underrate him at even strength and overrate him on the powerplay.

Obviously, it's harder to figure out with guys like Earl Seibert, who played at a time when we don't have even strength / power play splits.
 

Dreakmur

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Larry Robinson is probably the best puck mover in this series at even strength. During his offensive prime in the late 70s, he was basically Dennis Potvin's equal at even strength offense, while taking a backseat to Guy Lapointe on the power play.

Basically, looking at Robinson's overall numbers will underrate him at even strength and overrate him on the powerplay.

Obviously, it's harder to figure out with guys like Earl Seibert, who played at a time when we don't have even strength / power play splits.

Duncan Keith is another guy who scored a lot at even strength.

With Robinson, Keith, and Trembay, I'm really happy with how I built the top end of my blue line. All three guys are so well-rounded, and all thee guys have really strong play-off records.
 
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seventieslord

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Well, first of all, some guys just thrive with less competition. So, weaker forwards, could have easily made a significant impact on the scoring among defensemen.

Perhaps more importantly, even if no good defensemen left for war, the pool of talent looks pretty sickly. It appears that Pratt hit his offensive peak just as the prior generation of good defensemen retired, and before the next generation came along.

It really doesn't look that way - Pratt had already begun to peak offensively when the war seasons (1944, 1945) hit. He had earned scores of 100 and 122 just prior.

Actually, now that I look at it, I absolutely did punish the defensemen in the war years, because I only gave Pratt a 100 score in 1944, despite his enormous leads over 2nd place (57-43) and 3rd, where "the pack" begins (57-35), and in 1945, despite Pratt and Hollett lapping 3rd place Bouchard (41-34). In any other seasons, I'd have given Pratt scores of 163 and 121.

So let me be clear again for anyone reading: Pratt's VsXD scores do include massive downward WW2 adjustments.

Relative to their regular season scoring, Gilmour and Foyston raise their level of production. Lafleur doesn't. That's my point. Gilmour and Foyston get additional value in the play-offs, and Lafleur is exactly what he was in the regular season.... that's still the best player of the three, and by a wide margin, but it's a smaller gap because they get better and he doesn't.

I still don't understand this. Lafleur was like a Patrick Kane++; he was considered the clutch player of his generation who wanted the puck on his stick with the game on the line. Lafleur's numbers not being any better in the playoffs is symptomatic of what you see with every player who scored at a generational level - go compare the career PPG averages to the career playoff PPG averages for Lemieux, Orr, Esposito, Crosby, Jagr, Lafleur, Ovechkin - they simply scored at levels in the regular season that are not realistic to maintain in the playoffs. They still lapped the field in their primes (except Ovy, of course). They all sit at a ratio of 0.83 to 0.89. Gretzky's 0.95 is the only one that really bucks this trend (since he didn't play enough playoff games after 1993). Howe and Hull do alright, but their WHA numbers, which have really large sample sizes, follow this trend too.

The evidence suggests that. There is very little anecdotal evidence of Lewis' defensive game.... unless I'm missing a lot of it.

Those are my thoughts about Lindsay's game.

Lewis was the hardest of all my players to research, for reasons discussed before. But we know that he was more known as a defensive player despite having excellent offensive numbers. As nice as it would be to have a dozen quotes here, it's not going to happen, but at least what he does have is very telling, and he has an excuse for lacking more. Lindsay? Well, he is one of the most written about players of all-time, a star of the heavily glorified (often with good reason) O6 era. It should not be hard to find more than two "OK" quotes about him.

Also, we know for a fact that in his prime, Detroit had dedicated checking lines and he wasn't on them, and that on his own line, there was a player designated to hang back and do the heavy lifting defensively, and it wasn't him.
 
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seventieslord

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Team size

I've already covered the enormous difference in size between our teams' defense corps. We should also take a look at what our forwards look like. I thought this was worthwhile since the only two forwards on Orillia who would be significant physical threats (Lindsay and Mackell) are below average and pint-sized, respectively.

Here are Regina's forwards, in order of adjusted size:

Malkin: 6'3", 195
Gottselig: 6'3", 193
Tkachuk: 6'2", 235
Rolston: 6'2", 215
Tocchet: 6'1", 220
Nolan: 6'1", 214
Lafleur: 6'1", 195
Goyette: 6'1", 190
Balderis: 6'0", 200
Lewis: 6'0", 193
Gilmour: 6'0", 187
Hunter: 5'11", 208

Here are Orillia's:

Patrick: 6'4", 222
Staal: 6'4", 208
Mckenney: 6'2", 180
Sittler: 6'1", 200
Cowley: 6'1", 195
Walker: 6'1", 193
Foyston: 6'1", 193
Demitra: 6'0", 200
Recchi: 5'11", 205
Lindsay: 5'11", 193
Ramsay: 5'11", 185
Mackell: 5'10", 186

In total, Regina's forwards average 0.8" taller and 7 pounds heavier than Orillia's. Orillia has just three forwards who weigh as much as Regina's average.

Furthermore, look where that size is. Patrick is Orillia's softest forward and yet he's the biggest one - by a wide margin. That's a lot of wasted size, as he won't be using it size to scare anyone. Regina's beefiest players are all their most physical ones - Hunter, Tocchet, Nolan and Tkachuk are 208-235 apiece.

For comparison's sake, who are Orillia's 3rd and 4th most physical forwards anyway? The small Lindsay and the tiny Mackell are the first two, but I don't know who to even select as 3rd and 4th. You could say Lindsay (despite his size) and Mackell are the answers to Tkachuk and Hunter, but who are the answers to Nolan and Tocchet? Staal? Recchi? Sittler? A major stretch no matter which you select.

Overall, including the defensemen, Regina is a whole 1.1 inches taller and 9 pounds heavier, player for player. These kinds of matchups never work out well for the smaller, softer team. If Orillia had some sort of appreciable edge in skill and/or speed then it could be arguable that they will overcome it. But they won't; they will get worn down by Regina's size and aggression.
 
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seventieslord

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It's interesting comparing the defense corps as overall players, because there's really little room for splitting hairs:

1. Robinson is definitely better than Seibert
2. Savard vs. Keith is the only interesting one
3. Tremblay is definitely better than Johnson
4. Pratt is definitely better than Harper
5. Hall is definitely better than Ramsey
6. Vadnais is a better version of Larson

to some degree we've broken down their size and puck abilities but haven't gone into more depth. I'm not sure if we'll get around to it. But on the surface, it appears Orillia has better guys at the top end and Regina better guys on the bottom end. The edges at the top are more important, obviously, but they are also the smaller advantages.

I am finding it hard to see a major difference, aside from the size difference, that will move the needle in this series.

I like the skill set mixes on Orillia, I can't really complain. My only question is, did Tremblay regularly play right? he's a left shooter. On Regina we have two righties as well as a lefty (Johnson) that was well documented to play the right side his whole career.
 

seventieslord

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I had a big numerical PP post written and lost it. Oh well. Anyway, the point was, that a lot of our forwards essentially cancel out, PP production-wise:

Malkin/Cowley
Sittler/Tkachuk
Foyston/Balderis/Nolan/Patrick

leaving Recchi and Lindsay against Lafleur and Gilmour. Recchi really shines on the PP, you could almost call him a specialist at the ATD level. But even considering that, the biggest gap here is, no big surprise, between each team's top PP forward. Recchi can't compare to Lafleur. There's only so much PP time to go around and only one puck on the ice, and the fact that there are four minutes a game where Lafleur can do as he wants with it (and that there's no answer to that from orillia) should concern them.

If Lafleur is by himself as a true PP star here, it should be mentioned that Tremblay is uniquely talented as a PP player from the point as well. In fact, Orillia's four point men are all somewhat more skilled across the board - to the point where they could arguably close the gap. If the question is who loaded their units with the most skill they could find in ten players, I would say it's as close to even as it can get.

However - it concerns me that Orillia lacks a true 2nd unit net presence. The small but superlatively tough Lindsay should do just fine on the 1st unit (even if Seibert is more than strong enough to keep him to the outside, he'll take some abuse doing it). But who's going to battle Joe Hall in the slot in the 2nd minute? Regina has Tkachuk to go up against Robinson, and Nolan to go against Harper, meaning that those guys will have their hands full and occasionally yield position to these big, strong forwards. But Hall will have his way with the Regina crease in the 2nd minute. Mackell is not the answer, he's just too small. Sittler, Recchi, Foyston, and of course Patrick and Cowley are not up to this task.

conclusion: talent wise, power plays are very similar. skill-set wise, Orillia could use better 2nd unit net presence.
 
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seventieslord

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Mar 16, 2006
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Penalty killing

You might be surprised to know that I don't think Regina's PK gives an inch to Orillia's. We took a few highly physical players who took a lot of penalties, so it was very important that we not only build an outstanding penalty kill, but also have the right coach in place. Mike Babcock-led teams consistently play a low-penalty game. In fact, during his 10 years with the Wings, they averaged 22% fewer penalty minutes than the league average, which is huge at any time, but over a 10 year period that's simply outstanding. Tigers can't change their stripes, but they can be smarter, and I expect Tocchet, Tkachuk, Nolan and Hunter to give the opposition fewer power plays than they otherwise might.

As for the personnel on the units, Ramsay and Walker are both outstanding, and better than Gilmour. But don't underestimate the other three Regina is employing. Savard spent most of his career playing forward on the PK, and compiled arguably the best PK stats of all-time by any defenseman. His usage numbers are through the roof and are even more impressive considering defensemen post the highest numbers most of the time and he was at the forward position. It's remarkable actually, comparing him and Robinson, whose careers overlapped 9 years in Montreal:

Savard: 58%, 0.82
Robinson: 45%, 0.86

This means that in the years before they were together, Savard was doing significantly better than Robinson did in the years after they were together, because for the most part, their team stats would mirror eachother from 1973-1981.

Then we have Tom Johnson, for whom we have anecdotal proof was the leader of the penalty kill for a decade, for either the most dominant or 2nd most dominant penalty kill of all-time. It's mind boggling to think of what his stats would look like if they had existed.

It's almost impossible to put together two better penalty killing defensemen than the Savard/Johnson combo. And of course I haven't even mentioned Earl Seibert, a better overall player than either of them, and who was perhaps the best defensive defenseman of his era. His immense size and prodigious strength make him no less effective than someone like Robinson at clearing the crease.

That said, Ramsay and Walker are an outstanding combo and Robinson/Ramsey (49%, 0.88) are more than adequate. I'm not saying our PK1 is better than Orillia's, only its equal.

But on the PK2, Gottselig is quite possibly the best penalty killing forward of his era, and Rolston was a true special teams specialist whose numbers stand up to nearly any other winger in post-expansion history. Mackell is OK (his SHP totals compared to other known penalty killers of the era suggest he was definitely a penalty killer, but not as often as one would hope for an ATD 2nd unit guy). McKenney has just two SHP in his entire career and in all likelihood only killed penalties very rarely. He is a major weak link on an ATD penalty kill unit, which is shocking for a dreakmur-run squad.

Top candidates to replace McKenney on the 2nd unit are Lindsay (2 career SHP in the last 2/3 of his career where we have data), and Staal/Recchi/Sittler (16-18% career usage for average teams, hardly awe-inspiring)

Luckily, Orillia makes it up to some degree with two defensemen statistically better than Vadnais (though not by very much) and could claim Joe Hall to be an unknown, if they want to be cheap about it :)

overall, I see little to choose from on the PK units until we compare 2nd unit forwards - Gottselig/Rolston are a huge upgrade on McKenney/Mackell.
 
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seventieslord

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Bottom six forwards

How effective will these bottom six forwards be? As two proponents of intangibles in the bottom six, dreakmur and I should both be interested to dig deeper. During the draft, we both clashed with those who drafted offense-only players to slot into spots usually reserved for role players, and I demonstrated the offensive differences in these lower minutes becomes nearly negligible. Let's see how this affects our guys:

First thing I did was take the ES VsX for each of our forwards. They all have the available data, with two exceptions - Gottselig and Walker. Gottselig's VsX is 525, and with the evidence being very strong that he was an ES specialist offensively, I assigned him a score of 550, only very modestly higher, and much lower than I'd like to assign him, but hopefully acceptable to my opponent. Walker I assigned him what my VsX/Vs1 sheet assigns him, which is 397. This makes sense as it was the era of one-line hockey.

Next, I adjusted everyone to 14.0 ES minutes. For every modern player, I used the TOI sheet to get the number of ES minutes they played per game in their prime. I also took a look at what line they tended to average in their ES prime. Using those two numbers and knowing what we know about the pre-expansion players, I came up with an estimated ES minutes number that would be an acceptable apples-to-apples comparison to post-expansion players. The final column represents an ES VsX adjusted to 14.0 ES minutes per game.

Name | ES VsX | prime ES TOI | Line avg | Adj ES VsX
Ramsay | 464 | 14 | 2 | 464
McKenney | 593 | 14.2 | 1.3 | 585
Walker | 397 | 13.3 | 2 | 418
Mackell | 463 | 13.3 | 1.7 | 487
Staal | 580 | 15.3 | 1 | 531
Demitra | 548 | 15 | 1.2 | 511
Gottselig | 550 | 13.7 | 2 | 562
Goyette | 557 | 13.2 | 1.9 | 591
Nolan | 455 | 13.7 | 1.4 | 465
Rolston | 400 | 13.1 | 2 | 427
Hunter | 494 | 13.4 | 2 | 516
Tocchet | 494 | 14.7 | 1.4 | 470

The verdict? Regina averages 505 to 499 on a per-player basis. Given the guesswork inherent in this, I'm not prepared to claim an advantage, this is what I'd call "within the margin of error". So it is a question of what else they will provide to the cause.

offensive skill-set wise, I don't see any major deficiencies. Orillia's 3rd line is pretty balanced, and Staal is goal-oriented for a center, and Demitra a good playmaker for a winger. On Regina, Goyette and Nolan make beautiful music (they each have what the other lacks) and Hunter is a playmaker between two goal scorers.

In case anyone is wondering, I checked the total linemate collaboration scores from their primes, and the lineups come out even - neither lineup stands out as being heavy in catalysts or passengers. Actually, Orillia has more of both (Staal/Demitra and Ramsay/Walker) but it all evens out overall. I don't think the bottom sixes lack the ability to generate offense.

Defensively, there's no doubt who the best players are on these two lines. Ramsay and Walker are an all-star combo. They are both 10s. From there, Regina has Goyette (7) Hunter, Rolston and Gottselig (6), Nolan (5) and Tocchet (4). Orillia completes the lineup with Mackell, Lindsay and McKenney (5), Demitra (4) and Staal (2). Based on the strength of their two defensive stars, Orillia has the better defensive bottom six while Regina is more "defense by committee". On the other hand, Regina can at least say they don't have a weak link. Staal has paid little attention to defense and has been ventilated much of his career.

Physically, Orillia's corps is a perfect example of defense without physicality. Walker and Ramsay won't hurt anyone, nor will Demitra, McKenney or Staal. Mackell will try. He's the only example of a decent mix of defense and toughness in Orillia's bottom six. Hunter, Tocchet, and Nolan are the answer to Mackell, and then some. Hunter is an excellent example of great physicality and defense in one player. To a lesser extent, so is Nolan. What Regina gives up in raw defensive skill, they make up for in physicality. Even their less physical guys like Gottselig and Rolston, have great size.

Ramsay and Walker give Orillia a fighting chance to make life difficult for the supremely skilled Lafleur. However, they won't intimidate him, or Balderis, or Lewis, and certainly not Gilmour or Tkachuk, to throw them off their games as another way to limit their production. This element would have been very useful for Orillia. They're too easy to play against. In bottom-six vs top-six matchups, guys like Nolan and Tocchet will render Lynn patrick completely ineffective, while matching Ted Lindsay hit-for-hit. Hunter will scare the bejeezus out of the soft Cowley and will give Sittler all he can handle. Fun fact: Sittler outscored Hunter by about 21% at even strength during their respective primes, but needed 24% more ES icetime to do it (16.6 to 13.4 minutes). Hunter will surprise Sittler out there on more than one occasion, with a clutch goal, a big hit, a well-timed slash, a key defensive play, or a string of faceoff wins.

Conclusion: The bottom sixes are very similar in talent. Orillia has a defensive edge but is far too easy to play against as a whole. Lack of diversity in skill sets means their lines can really only play one way. Regina's lines are equipped for offensive, defensive and greasy situations. Orillia has the defensive horses to make a difference but Regina has the physical stallions to make the difference.
 
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seventieslord

Student Of The Game
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Leadership:

A little intangible that could help decide a close series. Based on who's wearing a letter I don't see a major advantage for either team's key leaders - though Gilmour vs. Sittler as assistants seems like a bit of a mismatch.

It's in the depth of leadership that I think Regina really starts to look good. We have 6 ex-captains not wearing a letter, including longtime captains Hunter, Nolan and Tkachuk, cup-winning captain Lewis, and shorter-term captains Tocchet, Rolston, and Vadnais. Then in the press box, 4 season NHL captain Al Arbour and Brian Bellows, who for a time was a captain and had a Jonathan Toews-like hype associated with him.

I'm not always an expert on who else has been captains on Orillia - its often things I uncover when researching for bios. Off the top of my head, I see Staal for 6 seasons, Ramsey for 3, Harper for 2, and benchwarmers Weight (2) and Parise (1).
 

seventieslord

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The incomparable Patrick Roy - the player who could ultimately be the difference in a series where so many other factors look so even, or close to it.

This can all by found in his bio, this is just a sampling of some quotes that mostly discuss his clutch/pressure/playoff greatness:

“I knew Patrick was a fearless competitor,” former teammate Ray Bourque says. “But after I got to Colorado, I saw what a competitor he really is. He’s just a winner and doesn’t accept anything else.”

Through the years, Roy has been successful by working his way into the minds of his opponents. Call it the Roy Mystique. He is generally more proficient when he is challenged or when his team isn’t favored. “Patrick may be the best pressure goalie in the history of the league,” Max McNab says

1993 may have eclipsed his rookie season. The Habs were again far down the list of contending teams for the Cup, but he alone seemed to will the team to one win after another…

Although the Avalanche included superstars Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg, Marc Crawford credited Roy’s presence as the critical element that pushed them to the top…

he era’s pre-eminent money goaltender… the swagger has always been backed up by the stats

“Anyone who doesn’t put him up among the all-time greats is just fooling themselves”, said Adam Foote. “Not only for his numbers, but also for his great leadership. He didn’t just stop the puck, he was our emotional leader in the dressing room. He just wanted to win. That’s what Patrick’s all about.”

“Let’s face it, it takes an entire team to win a Stanley Cup,” Demers said. “But I have a Stanley Cup ring on my finger because of him.”

Roy’s attitude toward the overtimes was comforting if you were a Habs fan: “I don’t mind going into overtime. I knew my teammates were going to score if I gave them some time.”…

Originally Posted by Bob Hartley
He's one of the greatest goalies in the game's history. When the big games are there, Patrick brings his game to another level.

Originally Posted by Scotty Bowman
When he's on, he is about as good as it gets.

It was Roy who won the pivotal 3rd game of the Montreal/NYR series all by himself. While his teammates struggled against the inspired Rangers, Roy pushed the game into overtime with 31 saves – many of them superb. The best was yet to come – Roy was spectacular in blocking 13 shots during the extra period. John Vanbiesbrouck faced just three.

He had silenced his critics. He was a winner in every way. Throughout the playoffs, opposing forwards said they wanted to test him more. When they did, he responded with key saves and they turned away from the net dejected.

brilliant in each round, but teammates say he gave them confidence in first period of first game against Bruins

because the Habs score so few goals, Roy goes into every game knowing he has no margin for error… other goalies could shrug off a bad goal here or there, but not Roy, because it is often the difference between winning and losing. That is tremendous pressure for a goalie to face year round

For years it has been said that the Montreal Canadiens are only as good as Patrick Roy

Raise the stakes and nobody's better.

He’s a regular goalie until springtime, when he dons his cape and mask to become Super Goalie. When money and honor are at stake, Roy will cash in.

It was 20 minutes into game 2 of the Western Conference final at Joe Louis Arena and Canadiens’ assistant coach Steve Shutt was in the house. “The only puck that will beat him tonight is one that he doesn’t see. I’ve seen this act before. Patrick is in that zone.” The game ended 3-0. But even before the Avs got on a playoff roll, Roy was exercising his ego, steeling himself into that state of invincibility. And it may well be argued that the big goaltender rediscovered that certain je ne sais quoi of his game on February 5th

“The performance he had in the playoffs puts him up there with the greatest goalies of all-time,” said John Vanbiesbrouck. “I’m not afraid to say that.”

If you have to win one game, this is the goalie you want in the net. As he proved in the 1996 playoffs, he still has the goods when a championship is on the line.

Even though Joe Sakic was a worthy Smythe recipient, don’t believe for a minute the Avs would have won the cup with Thibault or Fiset in the net. Roy was the difference.

Roy is more than a premier puckstopper. He’s a prima personality. The man has presence, on and off the ice. “No one has more of it,” said Marc Crawford. “He’s right up there with the select few, guys like Gretzky and Messier. He’s motivated to be the best goalie of all-time. He has it all. He had a dramatic impact on our team from the first time he walked through the door.”

Certainly, no player has a better postseason reputation. Maybe that’s because he likes to tell his teammates: “If you score two goals today, we will win because I’m only going to give up one.”

The ultimate pressure goaltender can carry the whole team on his shoulders if key players take a night off.

His intestinal fortitude and cavern-size confidence serve him well in pressure situations.

the 1999 playoffs reestablished his status as one of the game’s best pressure performers.

still considered one of the best money goalies in the game. He believes it too, which is the most important thing. Few goalies play with as much visible attitude as Roy, which can intimidate shooters.

The thing about Roy, and other phenomenal athletes is, they don’t play by the same rules as others. Roy outplayed every young goaltender that stood between him and his 4th Stanley Cup. That’s why he’s THN’s Player of the Playoffs… Perhaps his most remarkable feat this season was the maturity and composure he displayed after making what might have been a critical error in game 4 of the final… Roy lost the puck in his skates and within a matter of seconds it wound up in the Avs net… a lot of lesser men may have crumbled after such a mistake, but Roy only got stronger. He played well in a 4-1 loss and then stole the show in games 6 and 7 as the Avalanche defied the odds and wion the cup.

he clearly was the main reason why Colorado won its second championship… he played bigger and better as the playoffs wore on

Roy again proved he comes up big when it matters most.

“Patrick, game after game, kept coming, giving us a chance to win,” said Hartley. “He gave us a reason to believe we would with the Stanley Cup.”

All the Avs know is they’re fortunate to have the crease king on their side. Says Hartley: “The best thing I can say about him is he’s a thoroughbred. He always wants to lead the charge. He always wants to be first.”

He proved he is still an elite playoff goalie.

"The same thing we've seen for years," Colorado center Joe Sakic said. "That's just Patty being Patty. He was in a zone. When he gets like that, you know what's going to happen."

Originally Posted by Globe and Mail GM Poll, December 23, 2002
2. If all goalies were available, which current NHLer would you start in the seventh game of the Stanley Cup Finals?

Patrick Roy, Col 8
Martin Brodeur, NJ 2

In what should have been a lopsided first period, Colorado goaltender Patrick Roy faced 16 shots while New Jersey's Martin Brodeur faced only three. But Roy's brilliance allowed Colorado to emerge from the first 20 minutes with a lead,

Here's an offseason project for the NHL: Create the Patrick Roy Award. Then give it each spring to the postseason's best goalie -- which is exactly what Roy has been throughout his career.

He might not win every night (his once great glove-hand flourish was awkwardly slow when the Detroit Red Wings peppered Roy's goal with shots, knocking his Colorado Avalanche from the 2002 Western Conference final), but he knew that most nights and especially on those nights when it mattered most, he had the goods to come out on top. And so did the shooters.
 

seventieslord

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Mar 16, 2006
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Regina, SK
How effective is Foyston as a right winger?

My research a few years back prior to the top centers project seems to indicate he played at center/rover almost all the time:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=70155231&postcount=212

1917: the playoffs according to The Trail, had Walker at RW-R-RW-R, Foyston at L-L-L-L, and Morris at C-C-C-C. Doesn't prove what it was in the season, but it helps.

1918: Walker did not play. Foyston was listed as Rover both games, Morris Center.

1919: Walker was listed as Rover both games. Foyston was simply a wing, but it was not mentioned which one. Based on the other games with other teams this season, it appears they went with RWs on top, LWs on the bottom. He was likely RW once, LW the other times. Morris did not play.

1920: Morris is listed as having 5 GP, but in two summaries he's not listed at all, in the other three he is RW-RW_sub. Walker was R-R-RW-R-RW-R-RW. Foyston was F-F-C-C-C-C-C (listed on top vs. Roberts once, on bottom opposite Harris once, so almost certainly L then RW)

1921: Walker was Rover both games. Foyston was W both games (both times on same line as Alf Skinner, so likely RW). Morris was listed as a sub one game, and the opposite wing as Foyston the other, so RW.

1922: Foyston was LW-C in 2 games, Morris RW-RW, Walker R-R.

no playoffs for Seattle in 1923.

So based on these 7 seasons, here's what we have:

Walker:
RW: 5
R: 12

Morris:
C: 6
RW: 5
sub: 2

Foyston:
C: 10
R: 2
LW: 3
RW: 4


...Maybe their other playoff games can add extra illumination... here's what I have for their other playoff games:

Foyston:
C: 7
sub: 11


Walker:
LW: 10
RW: 13

Morris:
C: 1
RW: 2
LW: 1

so if we can say their playoff games tell the story (and they did play a much larger proportion of playoff games than most players in their day, and playoffs should be weighted more heavily to begin with), Foyston is a clear center, Walker a clear RW and Morris is a 7-7 RW-C split.

so we have 26 playoff games for Foyston where his position is known, and it shakes out like this:

C: 17
Rover: 2
LW: 3
RW: 4

Do we have any more solid evidence about his positions than this? Because if this is the clearest picture we have access to, it says Foyston may have only been a RW 15% of the time.

Whether that's enough to put a center on the wing is up to the individual voter. For me, it's definitely not. I can be convinced, because 15% is at least something, but that's like 3 seasons in a 20 year career and I would not be pleased to see someone try to use Didier Pitre at D, or even Lester Patrick or Moose Johnson at LW (and they had about 5 seasons there).

Anyway, if one agrees he's acceptable as a RW based on 15% (or based on other forthcoming evidence), fair enough, but this still means that the vast majority of Foyston's points were scored from center and rover. You simply can't expect a player who touches the puck less often to score just as many points. It makes comparisons of his offense to real wingers like Lewis, Tkachuk and Balderis apples-to-oranges. There absolutely has to be an adjustment to the numbers when a center is made a winger.

Whether this affects anything, when the numbers are pretty close across the board, I don't know.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
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More on Foyston:

The award voting thread starting here might shed some light on his positions.

In 1917 he is listed as C/RW (call it 50/50)
In 1918 he is C/RW but LW in another source (call it 25%)
In 1919 he is C/RW (50%)
In 1920 he is Rover
In 1921 he is C/RW but another source says LW (call it 25%)
In 1922 he is C
In 1923 he is C

These are his 7 all-star seasons so it's his prime. We have 3 seasons where he wasn't a RW at all, two that are 50%, two that are 25%. that would average to 21%. Total guesswork, of course, but it comes very close to the estimate based on playoff games in The Trail.

I dunno, there are some C/W type players who seem to have enough of a mix to be equally or nearly as effective as wingers (Howe, Abel, Delvecchio, Zetterberg come to mind, or lesser players like Brind'Amour, Damphousse, Pulford, Marshall, Muller or Rolston). But I don't see Foyston in that group. Too much center, not enough wing.
 

Dreakmur

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Mar 25, 2008
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Orillia, Ontario
As for the personnel on the units, Ramsay and Walker are both outstanding, and better than Gilmour. But don't underestimate the other three Regina is employing. Savard spent most of his career playing forward on the PK, and compiled arguably the best PK stats of all-time by any defenseman. His usage numbers are through the roof and are even more impressive considering defensemen post the highest numbers most of the time and he was at the forward position. It's remarkable actually, comparing him and Robinson, whose careers overlapped 9 years in Montreal:

Savard: 58%, 0.82
Robinson: 45%, 0.86

This means that in the years before they were together, Savard was doing significantly better than Robinson did in the years after they were together, because for the most part, their team stats would mirror eachother from 1973-1981.

If Savard was playing forward on the PK, then his PK statistics shouldn't be compared to Robinson's should they?
 

Dreakmur

Registered User
Mar 25, 2008
18,712
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Orillia, Ontario
It's interesting comparing the defense corps as overall players, because there's really little room for splitting hairs:

1. Robinson is definitely better than Seibert
2. Savard vs. Keith is the only interesting one
3. Tremblay is definitely better than Johnson
4. Pratt is definitely better than Harper
5. Hall is definitely better than Ramsey
6. Vadnais is a better version of Larson

What's interesting about Savard vs. Keith? Keith is very clearly the better player.

Vadnais put up lesser offensive numbers than Larsson while also seeing a spike when he played with Orr. Could you say he sucked less defensively that Larsson? Maybe. They were both bad. What they bring to the table is offense, and Larsson brings more.

Hall has quickly become over-rated. I'm glad BB took the time to put together a detailed bio for him, but I think the real information kind of gets buried within it. If there's a lot of information on his defensive game in there, I miss it every time I read through the bio.

I like the skill set mixes on Orillia, I can't really complain. My only question is, did Tremblay regularly play right? he's a left shooter. On Regina we have two righties as well as a lefty (Johnson) that was well documented to play the right side his whole career.

Yes, Tremblay played the right side.
 

jarek

Registered User
Aug 15, 2009
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Yes there is very little honestly about Hall's defensive game. I think Harry Cameron is better than him defensively, and only because Cameron's defensive game is a lot more fleshed out.

My read on Hall is that he became famous strictly due to his nastiness and his offensive abilities. I doubt he was anything spectacular defensively.
 

seventieslord

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Regina, SK
If Savard was playing forward on the PK, then his PK statistics shouldn't be compared to Robinson's should they?

Not sure you want to go down that route. If you consider Savard a forward for pk stats purposes, he would be the 4th most prolific PK forward of all-time, and very nearly Ramsay's equal. Robinson's PK stats, while very good, are rather underwhelming for a player of his stature - his 45% usage figure is 93rd among defensemen with 600+ games. Ramsey fares a little better (49%, 59th) but there should be little doubt that Johnson outranks them both, as does Seibert, whose scary size and mobility match those of Robinson and who was perhaps the best defender of his era. Similarly, Walker trumps Gilmour, but looking at the two sets of players, we've managed to match you on the PK, and ours won't be going up against a scary Lafleur-like threat.

What's interesting about Savard vs. Keith? Keith is very clearly the better player.

So Keith finally puts together a deep enough resume to get taken within 5 spots of Savard the last two years, and suddenly he's "very clearly the better player"? If we go strictly by award voting, sure, but Savard is a very unique player for whom award voting really doesn't tell the story, and the fact that we still ranked him where we did in the HOH defense project after taking a sharp knife to him and other comparables speaks to that.

The consensus on Keith is that he's clearly passed Niedermayer. I'm on board with that for sure. I could be convinced on Keith over Savard too, at this moment. But "very clearly the better player" reeks of partisanship.

(if award voting is truly that important at the expense of competition factors and team situation, then we should take a good look at Robinson vs. Seibert :thumbu:)

Vadnais put up lesser offensive numbers than Larsson while also seeing a spike when he played with Orr. Could you say he sucked less defensively that Larsson? Maybe. They were both bad. What they bring to the table is offense, and Larsson brings more.

- Vadnais' numbers were only in the 4% range lower than Larson's, and that's if we don't count 1969. If we do count 1969, and remove the 6 points he scored as a forward (as it appears is the case) then they are even. Certainly if you look at the raw totals it looks like Larson outscored him a lot, but the higher scoring 80s (as well as the general trend towards higher scoring defensemen) contributed to that. Relative to other top scoring defensemen in their eras, they were equals offensively.
- Vadnais' totals saw a spike with Orr, but defensemen as a whole were getting more involved in the offense, and he was not really any more dominant among the top defensemen than he already had been in 1969, 1970 and 1972. Also, he only played with Orr on the PP, and was still the 5th-highest scoring defenseman in the league at ES both seasons (he'd have a 95 and 92 ES VsXD score those seasons, if I had calculated such a statistic).
- Can I say he sucked less defensively? Yes, I can say he sucked a lot less. Larson is really quite rare a player when you read those scouting reports. On an annual basis they have to say something about how his defense needs work or how he's working on improving it. It was clearly a weak point for him. As for Vadnais, check his bio, I left nothing out. There are definitely hints here and there, but then there are guys providing counterpoints to that way of thinking as well. He was a two-way player and all-around minute muncher that was just a step below the real elites and was more valuable offensively than defensively, but that's not the same thing as Larson. I call Vadnais an "offenseman" here in the ATD, but Larson was an "offenseman" even at the NHL level.
- Vadnais' best seasons for all-star recognition are better than Larson's across the board: 6, 7, 9, 9, 10 vs 10, 10, 12, 14.
- During Vadnais' 8-year prime, he played an estimated 27.3 minutes a game for teams 13% better than average. Larson played a very similar amount (26.7 minutes, which is about the same considering the slight era differences), but for teams 14% worse than average.
- There is lots of information calling Vadnais physical and tough. Was Larson? He had good size, got into a decent amount of fights and had some PIM, but was he a Vadnais-level presence? I am asking because I honestly don't know. It's strangely never mentioned in the scouting reports you quoted, and I'm not sure what that means; it could just be overshadowed by his offense and his defensive struggles.
- Yes, Vadnais is just a better Reed Larson.

Hall has quickly become over-rated. I'm glad BB took the time to put together a detailed bio for him, but I think the real information kind of gets buried within it. If there's a lot of information on his defensive game in there, I miss it every time I read through the bio.

Overrated? As long as Joe Hall gets selected around pick #300, placed on 3rd pairings and has people like jarek suggesting he is not as good defensively as Harry Cameron, he's anything but overrated. He got canonized early on in these things as well below Cameron and Ross (to name two), without much of a real reason backing that, and now that there's a legitimate resistance mounted to that, I expect it to be an uphill battle.

But hey, I hear ya. I wish it was more detailed too. But let me ask you this - Moose Johnson aside, can you show me what a bio for a Joe Hall-era defenseman that clearly proves he was elite defensively looks like?

The star power is there. The plaudits of him as an overall player are there. The team results are above average. Very little, if anything, suggests otherwise. And hey, I'm not making any bold proclamation here - only that he's better than Mike Ramsey. The 4th-7th best defenseman of the era should be better than the 13th-17th of the 80s, right?

Yes there is very little honestly about Hall's defensive game. I think Harry Cameron is better than him defensively, and only because Cameron's defensive game is a lot more fleshed out.

My read on Hall is that he became famous strictly due to his nastiness and his offensive abilities. I doubt he was anything spectacular defensively.

:facepalm: - this again, jarek? look, no one used the word "spectacular" here except you.

You think Harry Cameron's defensive game is more fleshed out. That's great that his newspapers reported in more detail and had more material to search, but you yourself found plenty of examples of questionable and/or inconsistent and/or bad defensive play by Cameron that you put in your bio. having read the entire thing again, this is clearly the profile of an "offenseman". Let me remind you again about the defensive results both players attained:

Over the 7 years they were in the league together (plus the year before and after), Hall's teams allowed, on average, 98.5% of the goals against average of the league. Cameron's allowed 106.8% of the average.

I realize that one defenseman is typically only 1/3 of what it takes to stop most goals. But Cameron had better goalies, typically, as well. Holmes in Toronto, then Benedict, Vezina and Roach in the NHL. Hall had Paddy Moran, a slightly lesser light, throughout his NHA days before finally getting Vezina for two NHL seasons.

One more interesting thing to note - in two seasons where Cameron spent time with two teams, the results are striking.

1919:

Ottawa goes from 3.9 GAA with Cameron, to 1.8 without him.
Totonto goes from 4.9 GAA without Cameron, to 5.4 with him.

1920:

Toronto goes from 5.2 GAA with Cameron, to 3.7 without him.
Montreal goes from 4.3 GAA without Cameron, to 5.2 with him.

These numbers include a few games Cameron didn't play in, but I don't know which ones those were. I would revisit if I knew. but over two seasons, teams that traded and acquired Cameron allowed 4.9 goals a game with him, and 3.7 without.

I don't have the ability to do this for Hall, because he was never traded midseason like Cameron was, so assessing his impact when arriving or departing a team can't be done, but it is clear that his teams tended to have about 8% better defensive results.

Also, Iain Fyffe's player contribution is not the gospel but it's one useful way to assess value delivered by players, and Cameron and Hall are very close there, and we know Cameron had much greater offensive value so for them to be even close, Hall had to be given a lot more points for his team's defensive performance - and he clearly was.

in your reply, you mentioned that It should be noted that in my game report research, 1919 and 1920 had the fewest instances of poor defensive play from Cameron, so I have a difficult time attributing all of this to him. the fact that there were so many such mentions that you were able to single out seasons that had the "fewest" should tell you all you need to know.

BenchBrawl can speak for himself, but I am 90% sure he creates his bios like me and doesn't leave anything out. If what we have here is a complete picture of what has been uncovered about both players, I think it's highly unreasonable to put Cameron above Hall defensively.
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

Registered User
Aug 28, 2006
52,271
6,982
Brooklyn
When did Savard play forward on the PK? I was under the impression from overpass's studies that Savard-Lapointe was the Canadiens top PK pair for most of the 70s. Robinson was younger, so even though he became the #1 at even stength, the team didn't see a need to break up an already successful PK pairing.

Then in the 80s, I believe Robinson took over as the #1 PK option.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,202
7,360
Regina, SK
I guess it's time to consolidate a few conclusions before too many people have voted:

- The two teams have nearly equal offensive skill across the top-6 forwards. However, Regina has the best two defensive forwards in either top-6 (Gilmour, Lewis), and the only true gamebreaking clutch talent in Lafleur. They also have the only player with any appreciable size on either top line in Tkachuk, which will really come in handy on the forecheck, in front of the net, in the corners, along the boards, and for open-ice hits. Everyone on Regina's line is playing their proper position, while all sources presented to date seem to indicate Orillia's top line RW barely played that position in real life.

- The bottom-sixes are similarly talented with nearly identical track records as even strength producers. Orillia has the two best defensive players but also the two worst, and Regina's group is more balanced. Orillia does have the defensive edge here, but aside from Mackell, they are a small and non-physical group. These lines lack players who will make Regina pay a price. Regina's balanced bottom six contains offense, defense, toughness, physicality, leadership and agitation, and is suited to win any way they need to.

- The defense corps are more or less even in overall ability. However, the average sized Orillia blueline will take a pounding over the series from Regina's handful of extremely physical forwards, and Orillia has very little in the way of forwards who'll even try to rattle Regina's enormous yet mobile defense, much less succeed at it.

- Martin Brodeur won't lose a series for Orillia, but Patrick Roy can win a series by himself and has done it many times before. Regina has the benefit of the best clutch/playoff goaltender of all-time.

- Team size is a major concern for Orillia. They give 1.7" and 14 pounds up to Regina on defense, 0.8" and 7 pounds at forward, and 1.1" and 9 pounds across the board. Coupled with the very large physicality advantage up and down the lineup and at all positions, and Regina looks to physically dominate this series.

- Both teams have similarly talented PP units overall. Orillia lacks a Lafleur, but Regina lacks a Tremblay. The major difference is the lack of a net presence on Orillia's mostly non-combative 2nd unit, a big hole when you have a Joe Hall to contend with.

- Regina is one of the only teams (if not THE only team) who can match Orillia's excellent 1st PK unit. Regina has above average personnel up front on the 2nd PK unit, but Orillia's 2nd PK features Mackell, who killed some penalties but apparently not that much, and McKenney, who barely did so. With the major special teams differences being on the 2nd units, those 2nd minutes of PPs could be crucial in this series.

- I should mention that while Regina has an average-to-above-average coach in Mike Babcock, Orillia has a top-3 coach in Toe Blake. Orillia has to hope Blake can find a way to coach them past the goaltending, size, physicality, and special teams disadvantages the team is at. If anyone can do that, Blake is a candidate, but is that too much to ask of him?
 
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seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,202
7,360
Regina, SK
When did Savard play forward on the PK? I was under the impression from overpass's studies that Savard-Lapointe was the Canadiens top PK pair for most of the 70s. Robinson was younger, so even though he became the #1 at even stength, the team didn't see a need to break up an already successful PK pairing.

Then in the 80s, I believe Robinson took over as the #1 PK option.

I like seeing comments in here from other people.

Here, check his bio, and do a ctrl-F for the word "forward"... pay attention to the years.
 
Last edited:

Dreakmur

Registered User
Mar 25, 2008
18,712
7,006
Orillia, Ontario
I guess it's time to consolidate a few conclusions before too many people have voted:

- The two teams have nearly equal offensive skill across the top-6 forwards. However, Regina has the best two defensive forwards in either top-6 (Gilmour, Lewis), and the only true gamebreaking clutch talent in Lafleur. They also have the only player with any appreciable size on either top line in Tkachuk, which will really come in handy on the forecheck, in front of the net, in the corners, along the boards, and for open-ice hits. Everyone on Regina's line is playing their proper position, while all sources presented to date seem to indicate Orillia's top line RW barely played that position in real life.

Nearly equal is not the same as equal. As shown earlier, Orillia has an offensive edge on both the top two lines.

Most importantly, Regina relies very heavily on one player to create a huge amount of their offense... and Orillia has the guys in match-up positions to slow him down significantly.

- The defense corps are more or less even in overall ability. However, the average sized Orillia blueline will take a pounding over the series from Regina's handful of extremely physical forwards, and Orillia has very little in the way of forwards who'll even try to rattle Regina's enormous yet mobile defense, much less succeed at it.

Robinson > Seibert
Keith > Savard
Tremblay > Johnson

Yeah, your bottom end guys are better, but these are the guys who are going to be on the ice the most. These are the difference makers, especially at even strength.

Team size is a major concern for Orillia. They give 1.7" and 14 pounds up to Regina on defense, 0.8" and 7 pounds at forward, and 1.1" and 9 pounds across the board. Coupled with the very large physicality advantage up and down the lineup and at all positions, and Regina looks to physically dominate this series.

Physical play is always a double-edged sword. You want to intimidate, you spend time in the box.

As I said before, size is already accounted into these players' legacies. Being big made them what they were, so double-counting it seems off.

Both teams have similarly talented PP units overall. Orillia lacks a Lafleur, but Regina lacks a Tremblay. The major difference is the lack of a net presence on Orillia's mostly non-combative 2nd unit, a big hole when you have a Joe Hall to contend with.

Well, for starters, if you're on the PK, there's a good chance it's Joe Hall in the box.

Second, going to the net has nothing to do with beating up guys like Joe Hall. All I have to do is go to the front of the net. From there, I keep the goalie in his crease, and also obstruct the goalie's view.

The whole idea of a "net presence" is kind of silly. Anyone can be a net presence... just go stand there.

Regina is one of the only teams (if not THE only team) who can match Orillia's excellent 1st PK unit. Regina has above average personnel up front on the 2nd PK unit, but Orillia's 2nd PK features Mackell, who killed some penalties but apparently not that much, and McKenney, who barely did so. With the major special teams differences being on the 2nd units, those 2nd minutes of PPs could be crucial in this series.

Yes, Regina has a better group of PK forwards on the 2nd unit. On the first unit, Orillia very clearly has the better forwards. Ramsay > Savard and Walker > Gilmour.

As a PK defenseman, I don't think there's much of an argument against Larry Robinson being the best among these groups. He was widely viewed as the best defensive defenseman of his era, and everything we know about how he played translates well to the PK.

- I should mention that while Regina has an average-to-above-average coach in Mike Babcock, Orillia has a top-3 coach in Toe Blake. Orillia has to hope Blake can find a way to coach them past the goaltending, size, physicality, and special teams disadvantages the team is at. If anyone can do that, Blake is a candidate, but is that too much to ask of him?

Toe Blake is way better than Babcock. It's not even close really. The gap is wide.

Orillia's actual coach, Dick Irvin, is a lot closer to Babcock. It's a safe bet that Babs eventually overtakes I'm, but as of right now Irvin has the edge.
 

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