Montreal's Main Advantages Vs. Regina
If you asked most hockey fans what they think a team needs in order to win a championship, you'd get many different answers, but some things would come up again and again.The things you'd hear most often would probably be:
-A strong center line
-A strong #1 defenseman
-A strong goalie
This is not very surprising, considering most of the Stanley Cup winners in history have had a strong center line, a strong #1 defenseman and a strong and/or hot goalie.
I want to point out that Montreal has a clear edge in the center line and #1 D categories, while Regina has a clear edge in the goaltending category.
On the strenghts usually expected of championship teams, Montreal is better equipped than Regina.This is especially true considering Montreal is not weak in the goaltending category, whereas Regina is weak in both the center line and #1 D categories.
In a nutshell, Montreal has no major weaknesses in the things that matter the most, whereas Regina has some holes.
Center Lines
One of Regina's major weakness is its rather weak center line.Gilmour is just a very low-end #1.The Trottier-Modano-Fredrickson group have a major edge over Gilmour-Malkin-Goyette, and that's taking into consideration that I once left sex on the table to secure Regina's third line center.
Trottier vs Gilmour
Bryan Trottier's Top 10 Finishes and VsX Numbers
-Goals: 5, 5, 6
-Assists: 1, 1, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 8
-Points: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 10
-VsX 7 years (PTS): 93.7
-VsX 10 years (PTS): 87.2
-Replacement level (PPG)*: 96.2
Doug Gilmour's Top 10 Finishes and VsX numbers
-Goals: 10
-Assists: 2, 2, 5, 6, 8
-Points: 4, 5, 7
-VsX 7 years (PTS): 82
-VsX 10 years (PTS): 77.1
-Replacement level (PPG)*: 83.6
*The replacement level (PPG) data can be found in the
ATD Summary 2017 thread on page 3.
Hart Top 10 Record
-Trottier: 1, 2, 2, 3, 5
-Gilmour: 2, 4, 5
Selke Top 10 Record
-Trottier: 2, 8, 8, 10
-Gilmour: 1, 2, 5, 6, 6, 9
Conclusion
Unsurprisingly, it's a slamdunk in favor of Trottier.He's is a much better offensive player, a better goalscorer, a better playmaker, is more physical, has a stronger Hart record and is probably slightly better in the playoffs too.Gilmour has a stronger Selke record in his favor and nothing else.
Modano vs Malkin
Mike Modano's Top 10 Finishes and VsX Numbers
-Goals: 8, 8
-Assists: 4
-Points: 8, 9, 10
-VsX 7 years (PTS): 81.5
-VsX 10 years (PTS): 77.7
-Replacement level (PPG): 85.7
Evgeni Malkin's Top 10 Finishes and VsX Numbers
-Goals: 2, 4
-Assists: 1, 3, 6, 10
-Points: 1, 1, 2
-VsX 7 years (PTS): 90.7
-VsX 10 years (PTS): 82.8
-Replacement level (PPG): 96.4
Hart Top 10 Record
-Modano: 7, 7, 10
-Malkin: 1, 2, 2
Selke Top 10 Record
-Modano: 3, 4, 6, 6
-Malkin: X
Conclusion
Edge to Malkin, mostly because of his peak and star power.But it's not a slamdunk.Malkin destroys Modano offensively (just like Trottier destroyed Gilmour), but Modano was a much, much better defensive player.He was also more consistent and less injury-prone.Malkin's injuries cost him a lot throughout the years, from awards to even star power.Both were great playoff performers, with Malkin being one of the top offensive producers of his era and Modano playing abnormally high minutes for a forward.
Fredrickson vs Goyette
Harder to compare Fredrickson and Goyette, but here's an attempt anyway:
Sturminator did an analysis and tried to give "modernized Top finishes" to both Frank Fredrickson and Duke Keats.The methodology and Sturm's post can be found in my
Frank Fredrickson bio at the very bottom.
Frank Fredrickson's Top 10 Finishes (Modern Equivalent)
-Goals: 1, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7
-Assists: 1, 3, 3, 4, 8, 8
-Points: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9
Phil Goyette's Top 10 Finishes
-Goals: 9
-Assists: 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
-Points: 4, 7, 8
Even if you disagree with Sturm's methodology, I see no way that Fredrickson is not much better than Goyette offensively.
Star Power
This is a slamdunk in favor of Fredrickson.Fredrickson's star power was huge, and his reputation by far exceeded Goyette's.
Frank Fredrickson's reputational quotes:
Frank Fredrickson has made a name in hockey that will live forever.
There is no player on the coast and none on the prairie that can be put in the class with Frederickson, say coast critics. The NHL may have a candidate, but even the great Frank Nighbor would undoubtedly find it difficult holding his own with the Icelander.
Typical of the new breed was the rookie over there in Victoria, with Lester Patrick's Aristcrats. He was Frank Fredrickson, the twenty-five year old from Winnipeg, the superlative center of that city's Falcons, who was hailed on the prairies as the game's brightest star. That assessment was certaintly not far off, if off at all.
The Vancouver-Victoria game was scheduled for New Year's Day in 1921. It was billed as the battle of the World's Greatest Professionel (Cyclone Taylor) versus the World's Greatest Amateur (Frank Fredrickson). Victoria won the game 3-1 as Frank Fredrickson scored 2 goals.
Boston's big star is Frank Fredrickson
The musclebound centre powered the Cougars to an upset Stanley Cup victory in 1925 over Montreal Canadiens - no mean feat considering the Canadiens roster included such greats as Georges Vezina, Aurel Joliat, Howie Morenz, xxxxxxx and the Cleghorn brothers.
His dash, speed and daring were sensation of the hockey world.
Fredrickson was a mighty factor in Victoria's success last year, in first capturing the championship of the Western Canada Hockey League, and later the Stanley Cup, emblematic of the world's hockey title.Frank labored indefatigably to bring victory to Lester's club, and aided valiantly by his teammates.Patrick succeeded in landing the world's hockey honors for Victoria, BC.
"Genial Frank", one of the most brilliant hockey players of Canada
Frank Frederickson, the Cougars' flashy center, puck-chaser and one of the greatest players that hockey has ever produced
These two lads (including Fredrickson), who are as popular as any other pond experts in the country.
...and Frank Frederickson, the latter regarded by many devotees of hockey as the most brilliant player that ever put on a pair of skates and pushed around a puck, will be in Cougar uniforms this Winter.
Frank Fredrickson, a great center in his day
Frank Fredrickson was an accomplished defensive forward who, in a Stanley Cup finals of 1924-25, drew the role of checking the great Morenz. He did, too, and the Victoria Cougars triumphed 3 games to 1."
and in all due respect to Fredrickson's great reputation it must be said that Dick earned a shade on the night's play.
Frank Frederickson, pride of the Icelandic race, is back in Winnipeg today, after winning the right to be called the greatest player in the Pacific Coast Hockey League
For the last half dozen years Foyston has been considered one of the greatest forwards in the game, being excelled in the west only by Frederickson, the crack Victoria center ice man.
Phil Goyette's reputational quotes:
has developed into one of the most dependable defensive players in the game
For he is ranked as one of the headiest centers in the NHL
”As Phil Goyette goes, so goes the Rangers,” says Emile Francis
He is without a doubt the Rangers’ MVP so far
He is perhaps the best faceoff man in the NHL
Here’s how good a player Phil Goyette is – hockey people are agreed that, of all the men active in the game today, he is the finest coaching prospect
But:
But Goyette doesn’t overwhelm his audiences like the Canadiens’ superstars, and he’s not likely to win any plaudits as a goal scorer either. However, behind his almost lackluster style of play revolves probably the most artistic and persistent defensive performer in the NHL.
Phil (Goyette) will never earn plaudits as a goal scorer and will play many games without stirring a ripple of applause, but behind his almost colourless play is a brilliant defensive ability.
Defensive Game
It should be clear Goyette was a superior defensive player.OTOH, Fredrickson was not a defensive no-show.Ignoring Goyette's PK abilities which are irrelevent to that comparison, Goyette should still come out easily ahead defensively.
Conclusion
I believe Frank Fredrickson is one of those players that are still underrated in the ATD.Fredrickson might be the best 3rd line center in the draft (Gilbert Perreault and Hooley Smith doesn't count because they're the 2nd best center on their team).His star power was enormous for where he was taken in the draft, and he's combining size (his adjusted size is 6'4'' and 220 lbs!), speed and offensive talent while keeping a defensive conscience.Goyette is a good all-around player, but ultimately not the star or impact player that Fredrickson was.Advantage Fredrickson.
Size of Centers
Adjusted-size from tallest to shortest.
Name|Team|Height|Weight
Fredrickson | MTL |6'4'' | 220
Modano | MTL |6'3'' | 212
Malkin | REG |6'3'' | 195
Goyette | REG |6'1'' | 190
Trottier | MTL |6'0'' | 195
Gilmour | REG|6'0'' | 177
Montreal's center line is taller, but also much heavier.Regina's top 9 center are all under 200 lbs, even after adjustment.
Overall Conclusion
It's not far-fetched to say that Montreal's Top 9 center line is better offensively, defensively and more physically imposing than Regina's.Montreal's advantage is significant, and could be a major factor in deciding the series.
#1 Defensemen
Franchise Defenseman
Regina has another major weakness: The lack of an elite #1 defenseman.
One thing that is much more likely to decide the series than having a tougher 4th line is Montreal having Doug Harvey as their #1 defenseman versus Earl Seibert for Regina.
Doug Harvey controlled the flow of the game better than any defenseman not named Bobby Orr.He had no real weakness as a player.
Regina unfavorably compared Harvey to modern Doughty.Who's Seibert then? According to some silly polls in the polls-section from 2016, the 15th-17th best NHL defensemen were T.J. Brodie, Justin Faulk and Erik Johnson.Everyone is free to provide a better comparison for Seibert.
The Big Threes
-Doug Harvey vs Earl Seibert is a massive advantage for Montreal.Shift after shift, Harvey will be in control from the blueline and consistently make the right decisions, leading to a smoother transition without sacrificing any defense.
-Serge Savard vs Shea Weber is an advantage for Regina.It would be unfair to Serge Savard to compare his Norris record with Shea Weber's (with the latter being significantly better), because 1) Savard was a great defensive defenseman and his style is not friendly to Norris votes, 2) Savard had to share his spotlight with Robinson and Lapointe and 3) Savard was a great playoff performer, whereas Weber is a playoff no-show.
-Georges Boucher vs Tom Johnson is an advantage for Montreal.Regina agreed earlier that Georges Boucher > Tom Johnson.
Montreal's Big Three is better at moving the puck, mostly because of Harvey but also Boucher.Montreal is more likely to control the tempo of the game when the best players are on the ice.
Conclusion
This is the biggest advantage any team has in the series.
Montreal can count on the #1 defenseman of the greatest dynasty of all-time.Montreal's advantage can be extended to consider both teams' Big Three (Harvey,Weber,Boucher > Seibert,Savard,T.Johnson).Being in control of both transition and coaching, MTL will make it difficult for Regina to implement any specific strategy.Now add this to their coherent team concept (two-way center line, skilled and physical blueline, strong goaltending) and coach-players synergy (similarities with the NYI dynasty lineup coached by Al Arbour), and thus strong identity, and it is reasonable to expect Montreal to impose their style in the series.
