Rising/Slipping for '06

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by hawksfan50, Jan 4, 2006.

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  1. hawksfan50

    hawksfan50 Registered User

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    Well if I was a scout:

    Rising:

    ERIK JOHNSON --should be a consensus #1 overall --Pierre McGuire says from what he's seen the kid is NHL ready for next season as an 18 year old!

    NIKLAS BACKSTROM ---a month or two ago he was a 10-15 pick;now he looks like
    even a top 5 candidate!

    NIKOLAI KULEMIN---a Russkie winger who can skate score AND a very big mean/dirty streak--they bypased him in the last draft due to that tranfer agreement problem--some team will grab him now and hope the transfer issue gets settled --if there wasn't still a transfer problem he'd be top ten and even may have jumped to top 5 consideration after his terrific tournament...


    SLIPPING:

    KESSEL--world class skill but he does get handled by the better D-men and his defense and work ethic leave lots of doubts--that one play where he and Skille and
    (I believe Porter) just staid back in the Russian zone and made ZERO effort to come back defensively on a Russian counter-attack raises the LAZY/LOSER/QUITTER doubts to new heights...scouts really noticed --it may serously hurt Kessel...he's no Crosby...

    TOEWS--I think we all expected more offense from him--but granted he'sjust 17..

    MUELLER--the same criticism as for TOEWS--but he's also just 17 ...

    (So in these 2 cases the scouts will need to project the development of these two with a bit more care--would they be performing better as 18 year olds in comparison to the many 18 and 19 year olds in the tournament).

    FROLIK: in a word disappointing!

    Which leaves the door open for some guys like Backstrom and Kulemin to move up
    OR for guys who are not here= DERICK BRASSARD and JORDAN STAAL to move up if they impress at the Top Prospects Game and through this spring...
     

  2. Kessel, Toews, Mueller, and Frolik may be slipping, but they'll probably still be top 5 for the draft.

    Backstrom has elevated himself into the top 10 with his play.
     
  3. Rabid Ranger

    Rabid Ranger 2 is better than one

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    Everyone harps on what Kessel didn't do, but are ignoring what he DID do. Yes, he wasn't the second coming, but he still had a solid and productive tournament. When we start nitpicking on individual shifts, then a player is under the microscope too much. There's a chance Kessel isn't the number one pick, but IMO that's only if a team takes a shine to Erik Johnson.
     
  4. WADEugottaBELAKthat

    WADEugottaBELAKthat Flynt Flossy

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    Did I mention that..
    No way Backstrom is elevated into top-five form.

    He's good, but if you really watched what was going on with Sweden, you'd realize that anything positive backstrom did could be directly attributed to his linemate, Niklas Bergfors.
     
  5. Kritty

    Kritty Registered User

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    Take away the Norway game and Kessel has a very average tournament. He has not been very strong at all. Everyone saw him last year at the Under 18s and assumed he as a star. Remember, that was when he was at the top level against players his age. Now we're founding out he isn't at the level of many of the 19 years olds in the tournament. Maybe all the hype was a bit premature.

    As for Toews, I really have a problem with people saying he hasn't lived up to expectations. There weren't much for expectations on him. A 17 year old in this tournament would do what Toews has done. Look great at times, look not so good at other times. He has never been called a flashy player, but someone who excels at all facets of the game. He has been pretty solid overall if you ask me.
     
  6. Rabid Ranger

    Rabid Ranger 2 is better than one

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    I think the hype was premature. I don't think there was any chance Kessel lived up to what many were projecting him to be: The American Sidney Crosby. That being said, he still tied for the tournament lead in points and came to play in a big game (against the Czechs) so it wasn't all bad. He's still a good bet for number one overall IMO.
     
  7. Castor Troy

    Castor Troy Registered User

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    I'd agree with this. After going to every USA game except the Switzerland one, I'm very impressed with certain aspects of his game. Namely, his speed, acceleration, stickhandling and above all his shot. He's even a decent passer as well when he gets a mind to pass.

    The main criticism I have of him is that he didn't seem to adapt his game to his competition. Against weaker competition in Norway, he took the defence on one-on-one and was able to create many chances and piled up the points. Against Canada and Russia he took the defence on one-on-one and was mainly contained. He might blow by the defence once or twice out of ten but the bigger, more experienced defencemen of those teams simply waited for him to make his move and blocked him out of the shooting lane. I would have liked to see him recognize this and adjust accordingly.

    All that being said, I didn't see any other '06 eligibles that had an NHL skillset that was even close to his so he's got the #1 overall IMO.
     
  8. ryz

    ryz Registered User

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    While I can't say anything about draft rankings, I think that to hockey fans that payed attention to the tourney Erik Johnson rose to the point that many would take him over Kessel with a #1 pick and Kessel dropped. Maybe not out of the #1 overall slot but well out of the Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin stratasphere.
     
  9. An Ape called Yoko

    An Ape called Yoko Registered User

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    I can´t judge whoever should be in top5.

    But i can say I really like Bergfors. He is one of my favourites. I have seen Bäckström and Bergfors play an amount of times. But I honestly think that Bäckström might have passed Bergfors this season... Bäckström has taken a giant step and has been awesome in SEL.. being the firstline-center and playing lots and lots every game. I don´t believe for a second that Bäckström was good only because he played with Bergfors... that doesn´t sound right at all.
     
  10. Riddarn

    Riddarn 1980-2011

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    Bäckström centers the first line in his SEL team.
     
  11. TK79

    TK79 Registered User

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    Jesse Joensuu is slipping. People were talking about him as a top 3 pick just six months ago, now he's projected to go somewhere between 10-20. I'm starting to get worried about his overall skill-level. He has the intangibles to be a solid pro in any case.
     
  12. shaner89

    shaner89 Registered User

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    How about the Swiis goalie Berra. Is he drafted?? i dont think he is. he played some good hockey for them. he should be rising
     
  13. Daily Special

    Daily Special Registered User

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    Good points. What's funny is the "reports" over here on Kessel are seemingly the red herring of reports on him thus far in comparison to the ink he's getting by mainstream media. Everyone keeps parroting that half of his points were in Norway while neglecting to point out his being instrumental in the win over the Fins and Czechs. Something the scouts will no doubt be looking at in addition to acknowledging the fatigue factor on a US team that played four games in five nights.
     
  14. Heat McManus

    Heat McManus Registered User

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    From what I've heard of Kessel he seems to be a great player, but not a franchise player in that he is not the one to build your entire team around. He would be perfect for a one-two punch like Vancouver has with Bertuzzi and Naslund or a lone-sniper like Bure was with Florida, but not a guy you would ride to the top with. I could definately be wrong.


    As far as the draft, I think this is similar to 2003 where there will be no consensus pick and it will come down to team needs.
     
  15. God Bless Canada

    God Bless Canada Registered User

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    This draft is nowhere near the quality or the depth of 2003. The class of late 1984/1985-born Canadians is the best in a decade. The depth of Americans in NCAA was also at one of its highest levels in a long time. There isn't a forward as good as Staal or Horton (the jury's still out as to how this year's forwards will stack up against Carter, Parise, Bergeron, Zheredev and Vanek), or a defenceman as good as Phaneuf or Suter (or possibly Weber).

    Johnson's stock definitely improved. He entered the tournament as a potential No. 3 behind Toews and Kessel. He'll exit the tournament as the No. 1 pick in a lot of people's eyes. Backstrom has elevated his status from a top-15 pick, who might play his way into the top 10, to a sure-fire top 15 guy who might crack the top 5.

    The player whose stock dropped the most was Joensuu. He was considered a top 10 player before the tournament. Now he's likely going to disappear from a lot of top 15's. He's 18, too, so the scouts won't cut him as much slack. Frolik's 17, so he might get a little more grace, but at this time last year, he was 1A to Kessel, and because his play this year didn't come close to last year, his stock could fall, and he may have to play really well to salvage his top five spot.

    As for Toews and Kessel: while they maybe didn't meet expectations, I don't think their stock has legitimately fallen. If Johnson isn't No. 1 on your list, Kessel is. He's not a lock for No. 1 anymore, but he's still a pretty good bet.

    Toews is still likely No. 2 or 3 on most scouts lists. His judgement day will be at the WU18, where he will be playing against those his own age, and not in a tournament where he is one of the youngest players. Both are still fairly close to where they were before the tournament.
     
  16. Rabid Ranger

    Rabid Ranger 2 is better than one

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    I agree with everything in your post except where you say there is no defenseman as good as Suter or Phaneuf. I think Erik Johnson COULD be that guy.
     
  17. God Bless Canada

    God Bless Canada Registered User

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    I don't. I think Johnson is a future No. 1 NHL defenceman who could one day become one of the top five or 10 blue-liners in the league. I think Phaneuf could potentially be the the best defenceman drafted since Pronger in 1993, and Suter and Jack Johnson are right behind him. (A lot of good defencemen in recent years, with Phaneuf, Suter, J. Johnsons, Weber, Pitkanen, and, if he regains his form, Bouwmeester, picked since 2002, and E. Johnson about to join them). Phaneuf and Suter are franchise defencemen.
     
  18. Nash

    Nash Registered User

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    Scouts will also look to see what he did against the two teams that will be playing in the Gold medal game. He got 2 points against Canada in a close game, but they were both on the powerplay and neither was anything special. The goal happened when his first shot didn't get through and the puck went right back to him so that on his second shot, the goalie was out of position. The assist was on a scramble in front of the net. He did pretty much nothing against the Russians. He seems to only use the inside-out move and it was completely ineffective against defensemen who simply stood him up. He tried it over and over again against Canada to no effect. Good players adjust their game ... he didn't. I guess that is where I have a problem with his game. He doesn't seem to have the vision you expect from a top pick. His game is one dimensional and it doesn't look like it translates well against the top competition.

    I do believe that Kessel is probably the best skater in his draft class, he has one of the best shots and can do amazing things at top speed, but he certainly isn't the prospect he was made out to be. Definitely outside of the Ovechkin/Malkin/Crosby league.

    Eric Johnson looks to be a more complete top end player to me and should go #1. Kessel is still an amazing player with great skill, but where he is drafted depends on how he improves on his flaws over the next 6 months.

    The Under 18 Championship will say more about his peers and where they will end up in the draft.
     


  19. Yeah, I don't think comapring any draft class to the 2003 one is fair. One of the best drafts I've ever seen, and since it's not even been 3 years since the draft itself, these players will further develop, improve and mature.

    Absolutely incredible talent in the '03 draft.
     
  20. Joe Hallenback

    Joe Hallenback Registered User

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    Kessel - Reminds me alot of Mike Modano when he was in Prince Albert. Alot of offensive firepower and speed to burn but thats about it. Still wouldnt you want a guy that can score and wants to score everytime he has the puck? Hes not going to be Jesus on ice but he will be like Modano or Pavel Bure and theres nothing wrong with that at all.

    Johnson - Franchise Defence like Pronger. These guys are few and far between and you gotta draft them if there there. I woudlnt be surprised if hes the first pick because he is the total package and played really well at the WJC. A side note though let him develop first and dont bring him in as a 18 year old and expect him to part the water ala moses. Remember the Whalers trading away a "underachieving" young Pronger to the Blues.

    Toews - I though he played well and really should have been rewarded more if his linemates could have found the net. Reliable defensively and not afraid to take a hit. I dont remember a shift were he showed his age and hurt his team out there. Plays alot older then he is. Will be a monster with 40 more pounds of muscle
     
  21. Daily Special

    Daily Special Registered User

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    I agree Kessel has several things he needs to work on, cheifly using his linemates more often, and his work along the boards.I think the main thing that hurt him in that respect was he was working hard to justify the hype as opposed to playing a team role early on. Defensively his play is almost non-existant and that is one of the more noticeable flaws he needs to focus on - as ina willingness to use some of his shift time to be responsible. But to use the game vs the Russians as a barometer after the entire team collectively was so clearly fatigued won't allow for a reasonable assessement of his play in that game.

    One thing that I think will equalize some of the knocks on him was prior to this game Kessel was known almost exclusively for his goal scoring ability, that stigma changed in a hurry after this tournament to be sure, as he showed he can do it all "offensively". As for the "moves", I don't think thats what scouts are looking at until he ceases to be able to produce.

    The trouble I have with the Toews apologists is everyone using the "he's only 17" out, when it was Kessel that wowed everyone with a hat trick in 2005 when he was only 17.


    -
     
  22. :deadhorse

    We get it, you think Kessel is much better than Toews.
     
  23. Quiet Robert

    Quiet Robert Registered User

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    I don't think you can say Kessel is really "slipping." If the draft were held today, I think the worse he could go is probably no.2 after Johnson. In this tournament, personally I have been more impressed with Johnson, and though Kessel was considerably hyped, it's not as though he played poorly. It became evident that he still needs to work on a few things and that he's not the generational talent that was once thought but that's not to say he won't be a great NHLer.

    As for Mueller, I love this guy. He is going to be awesome. He was great in the U-18's last year and is having a good year in Everett. The Silvertips don't play a very offensive style but they are playing well and we'll see how if he can lead them deep into the playoffs. Mueller is definetly a player who shouldn't slip lower than 6ish imo. (I think ISS has 4 and Mckeen's at 6) I would have liked to see him produce a little more, but I like his play and I think he could become a good NHLer.

    I agree with GBC on Joensuu. For a guy who was supposed to be a top 10 pick, he hasen't shown me much. Then again, I don't get to see him play in Finland, and though the WJC are an important tournament, they aren't the only time to analyze a player's game so maybe he's accomplishing a lot in Finland.

    I'm really intrigued about Sheppard, J. Staal Brassard and Little. For them the rest of the year and the U-18's will be very important to see where they fit in. A lot of other potential top 10-15 picks are playing in the U20's, so for them it's a little harder to get exposure.

    The guy who has risen the most though has to be E. Johnson. Some scouting sites had him around 5, but I think right he has to be considered at worst the no.2 overall pick. And I'm sure there are quite a few who would take him no.1 overall.
     
  24. GKJ

    GKJ Global Moderator

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    Has Joensuu dropped on anyone's board?
     
  25. time

    time Registered User

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    Nope, EJ is not that good. He may go number 1 and he did a lot of impressive things this tourney, but why has no one mentioned that he was responsible for the second and fourth Russian goal last night? The first time he went for a big hit in the neutral zone and left his side wide open for Emelin; the second time, well c'mon, we all watched the game, right? He got outmuscled for the puck in the corner, lost his man, then deflected the guy's shot past Schneider as he dove back into the play.

    It was a brutal performance from an otherwise very good player. It happens; unless you are as good as Suter or Pahneuf (or Weber).
     
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