RHD Zach Bogosian: Breaking Down the Bounce-Back Season

[garret9]

Bogosian is a fan favourite here and unlike some tough minutes fan favourites (GST) he's actually pretty good at his job.

Even Strength and PP Production

YEAR | GP | ESTOI/60 | ESP/60 | ESG | ESA | PPTOI/60 | PPP/60 | PPG | PPA | SHG | SHA
2008| 47|14.62| 1.13| 6| 07| 1.12| 5.70| 2| 3|1|0
2009| 81|16.68| 0.67| 6| 09| 1.67| 2.66| 3| 3|1|1
2010| 71|17.57| 0.53| 5| 08| 1.93| 1.31| 0| 4|0|0
2011| 65|17.25| 1.12| 4| 19| 2.40| 2.69| 1| 6|0|0

Like a lot of us already knew, Bogosian had a fantastic rookie season and then started to pitter off offensively... but, last season he brought it back!

Even Strength Advance Stats

YEAR | RelQoC | OZS | RelCorsi | Corsi | G/60 | A1/60 | P/60 | SAon/60 | SH%
2008| 0.048| 43.6| 6.9|-4.28| 0.52| 0.17| 1.13| 30.8 | 10.0
2009| 0.290| 44.7| -1.6|-3.42| 0.27| 0.09| 0.67| 31.8 | 06.5
2010| 0.556| 47.9| -8.8|-6.98| 0.19| 0.05| 0.53| 30.4 | 03.2
2011| 0.591| 49.4| -2.7|-0.91| 0.21| 0.32| 1.12| 27.0 | 03.3

Again, pretty much what we already knew:
2008: Bogosian's rookie year looks pretty good. He plays slightly sheltered on a weak team and thanks to some oddly high for a defensemen shooting percentage plus some offensive prowess, Bogosian posts some fantastic offensive numbers.
2009: Next year he get's lined up against tougher competition. His offensive and defensive numbers stumble... but due to his #GP going up his point totals improve so he looks pretty good in the boxcar stats categories.
2010: Next step in competition levels and crash. Bogosian increases his shots on goal per game (barely) but nothing else works out. Fans start crying bust.
2011: Bogosian finds a second home in Winnipeg; Huddy goes over hours and hours of footage continuously and Bogosian takes a huge step forward offensively posting similar numbers as 2008 but without a crazy high shooting percentage. His defensive abilities improve as he almost beats tough matchups (-0.91 Corsi) which is impressive even if he isn't beating them (will show further down) and decreases shots against to 27.0 per 60 mins (around what I wish all the Jets' were, except Hainsey and Enstrom who posted ~26.0).


Bogosian is really a top notch defenseman, and took a huge step towards becoming a legit #1 all minutes man. The only thing standing in his way is Byfuglien, and he's a big thing to move out of the way. Now I'm a big fan of keeping Byfuglien with Enstrom, for the time being. But, it's of my opinion that one day Byfuglien will regress (as all players do) and it may be as early as the next 2-3 years due to his knees and weight. Jets' are in a nice position where they already have Byfuglien's replacement ready and Bogosian's tough minutes role in the cupboard (Trouba). I already showed Bogosian's With CF/GF to show how Hainsey was Bogosian's best tough minutes second pairing guy... but I want to also show how in offensive minutes he did well with Enstrom:

2011-12 Bogosian with:

Partner | TOI | CF% | GF% | +/-
Stuart |369 |0.466 |0.433 |-4
Hainsey |272 |0.496 |0.609 |+5
Oduya |247 |0.499 |0.222 |-10
Enstrom |97 |0.556 |0.667 |+3

Now keep in mind that his TOI was small with Enstrom so there could be a large effect with variance, but it's not bad at all. Their CF% (which tends to be more stable than GF% and better correlated for long-term success) is just barely under Enstrom-Byfuglien. Remember, that Bogosian was playing a different role when with Enstrom than with Stuart, Hainsey and Oduya.


Bogo Relative to His Peers:
Now I promised to show how even though Bogosian isn't beating tough minutes he's still doing pretty dang good. I'm going to go a bit statsy here.
Using Behindthenet.com (where I get probably 3/4 of my info and managed by a former Winnipeger) I brought up a list of defensemen who played more than 30 games, faced tough competition (at least 0.500 RelCorsiQoC) and had started in the Dzone more than Ozone (0-49.9 OZS)... 53 defensemen come up... Here's his placement in the 53 (and Hainsey's)

Name | RelCorsi | Corsi | G/60 | A1/60 | P/60 | SAon/60
Bogosian| 32| 17| 14| 11| 04 | 27
Hainsey | 38| 23| 53| 16| 45| 19

Bogosian had the 17th best Corsi of tough minute Dman. Now some of it is padded with Ozone starts with Enstrom when Buff was injured... but it's still impressive... #16 was Shea Webber! and just for Holden Rob Suderi was #6 <EDIT> Now of course those two do have a bit tougher minutes because the Jets spread the tough matchups between the first and second pairing while those ones take it all </EDIT
What's even more impressive is Bogosian's offensive numbers with these tough minutes. He was 4th in pts/min. Now some of it is padded with a lot of secondary assists, but when you think that Bogosian posted his lowest sh% yet, it may be a wash.

Summary
Are you stoked for when he returns without a chronic bad wrist? I 'effing am!!
GoBoGo

Click to read more...

 

[CorgisPer60]

Bogosian is going to have a monster season next year. I am quite looking forward to it.

 

[KingBogo]

Can't wait to see him on the ice. Nice breakdown and hopefully we see him back sooner rather than later.

PS. You forgot the GO in Bogosian in the title

 

[King Woodballs]

Was the Jets best overall d man last year

Hope he keep progressing this year. (When he gets back playing that is)

 

[Huffer]

Excellent work as usual Garret!

Could I make 1 request? I love reading your analysis, but find I have to always try to remember what all the acronyms are (relQoc, relCorsi, etc), and what good comparables are.

Could you add a legend at the bottom of your analysis posts describing each of the acronyms?

 

[truck]

Excellent work as usual Garret!

Could I make 1 request? I love reading your analysis, but find I have to always try to remember what all the acronyms are (relQoc, relCorsi, etc), and what good comparables are.

Could you add a legend at the bottom of your analysis posts describing each of the acronyms?

Probably a good idea.

I hate the advanced stats terms. Calling them what they are, Shot Differentials and Quality of Competition really simplifies things.

 

[garret9]

Thanks everyone!

Excellent work as usual Garret!

Could I make 1 request? I love reading your analysis, but find I have to always try to remember what all the acronyms are (relQoc, relCorsi, etc), and what good comparables are.

Could you add a legend at the bottom of your analysis posts describing each of the acronyms?

What I'm planning to do is this...

I'm planning once the season starts is to make a thread where the very first post is our teams lineup (constantly change it with the lines and injuries and such) and have each name a link to each one of these.
On that thread we'll constantly update team stats and such. I remember we had a sticky thread that had all of the team stats last season. I remember Gmoney did how our wins/GA/GF and such were going.
What I'll do is put a legend on there

 

[GJF]

I'm always sighing when those advanced stats shortcuts appear, too.

garret explained them to me once but it's not that easy to always remember them.

 

[Che vy Teemuchuk]

Garret, that's a fabulous thread idea. Appreciate all your processing and analysis!

 

[ps241]

Thanks everyone!



What I'm planning to do is this...

I'm planning once the season starts is to make a thread where the very first post is our teams lineup (constantly change it with the lines and injuries and such) and have each name a link to each one of these.
On that thread we'll constantly update team stats and such. I remember we had a sticky thread that had all of the team stats last season. I remember Gmoney did how our wins/GA/GF and such were going.
What I'll do is put a legend on there

that is a great idea and would be much appreciated!

 

[Flair Hay]

This guy could really turn into one hell of a defenseman. I think there can still be room for Buff and Bogo for a long time. Having a defender play against the other teams best that can also contribute offensively in that role is super super valuable.