Proposal: Revisiting a Penguins-Oilers goalie swap

[Empoleon8771]

I had made a past proposal around Campbell and futures for Jarry, but I think this deal actually may make a bit more sense with Skinner's playoff struggles.

Penguins trade Jarry at $4.5 million (~$850k retained)
Oilers trade Skinner and a minor plus

This idea is based on the assumption that Campbell will be bought out by Edmonton, so that extra $850k retained on Jarry makes the swap more palatable for Edmonton. They basically move on from a known playoff failure in Skinner while bringing on Jarry, who also has his share of playoff struggles but has an upside that makes it worthwhile for Edmonton IMO. The Penguins clear out a pathway for Blomqvist to take over for the starter's role in the long-term future, while running in the short term with Skinner and presumably Nedjelkovic.

The minor add would presumably be a 4th or something along that valuation, so nothing too major.

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[MisterT]

Oilers will keep Skinner.

 

[trick9]

Jarry for Campbell would make more sense.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Jarry for Campbell would make more sense.

No it wouldn't because Campbell's contract is substantially worse than Jarry's contract.

Jarry's a roughly average NHL goalie making a bit too much money. Campbell's an AHL goalie and is criminally overpaid.

 

[Toby Flenderson]

Jarry is not any better than skinner. Both can flash excellence but are wildly inconsistent.

The Pens say yes to this just because of the cap savings. Oilers tell us to get ******. Pretty poorly thought out

 

[Gurglesons]

Jarry is not any better than skinner. Both can flash excellence but are wildly inconsistent.

The Pens say yes to this just because of the cap savings. Oilers tell us to get ******. Pretty poorly thought out

Hey now. Tristan Jarry's career .891 in playoffs would be a huge improvement for the OIlers

 

[Jacob]

Jarry + Nieto for Campbell (20% retained) + Holloway + '25 3rd

 

[ElPrimeTime]

Considering salary, term, age and performance, the Oilers wouldn't be adding here. Skinner has been terrible in the playoffs, but somehow his playoff stats aren't considerably worse than Jarry's. Regular season, Skinner has been better the last two years.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

I think we're going to see a lot of these threads where the Oilers are giving Skinner away, it's not likely to happen.

If he gets traded it'll be for a clear upgrade, not a sideways deal for a guy that has also struggled in the playoffs, while making a whole lot more money for more years.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

Jarry + Nieto for Campbell (20% retained) + Holloway + '25 3rd

Absolutely f'n not. Jarry hasn't been good, has an extra year, is owed more than Campbell and we get to give away Holloway.

Your proposal has the Oilers paying essentially $6.35M a year for Jarry for the next 3 years and losing Holloway and a 3rd to get the studly Nieto.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

trading a cheap Skinner that's good in the regular season but crumbles in the playoffs (10-9, .881) for an expensive Jarry that's medicore in the regular season and crumbles in the playoffs (2-6, .891) makes sense....how? and you have the add on Edmonton's side?

Sorry but this is nonsense. Even retained Jarry makes 2 million more than Skinner leaving us even less room to find another goalie to spell him off. We get older and more expensive but don't really improve in any way.

I'm also not sure how 29 year old Jarry "has the upside" but 25 year old Skinner somehow doesn't when they've both been poor in the playoffs.

 

[Empoleon8771]

trading a cheap Skinner that's good in the regular season but crumbles in the playoffs (10-9, .881) for an expensive Jarry that's medicore in the regular season and crumbles in the playoffs (2-6, .891) makes sense....how? and you have the add on Edmonton's side?

Sorry but this is nonsense. Even retained Jarry makes 2 million more than Skinner leaving us even less room to find another goalie to spell him off. We get older and more expensive but don't really improve in any way.

I'm also not sure how 29 year old Jarry "has the upside" but 25 year old Skinner somehow doesn't when they've both been poor in the playoffs.

The "upside" factor is that Jarry has been an all-star twice before and has had terrific seasons, while Skinner doesn't have that track record at least yet.

Maybe my read on them is wrong, but I view Jarry as a league average-ish starter while Skinner is more of a 1A platoon goalie. I don't view Skinner as a "true starter" and even though the results are similar, I still think Jarry is the better goalie. Even with Jarry's shitty reputation currently, I'd bet most fans would share this idea that Jarry is better than Skinner.

To make another comparison, it's like comparing Brian Elliott to Fleury back in like 2015. Elliott put up better numbers than Fleury, but I think it was widely realized that Fleury was an actual starter while Elliott was more of a platoon goalie.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

The "upside" factor is that Jarry has been an all-star twice before and has had terrific seasons, while Skinner doesn't have that track record at least yet.

Maybe my read on them is wrong, but I view Jarry as a league average-ish starter while Skinner is more of a 1A platoon goalie. I don't view Skinner as a "true starter" and even though the results are similar, I still think Jarry is the better goalie. Even with Jarry's shitty reputation currently, I'd bet most fans would share this idea that Jarry is better than Skinner.

you mean you don't recall when Skinner was an all-star last year, a Calder runner up rookie, and tied for 3rd in wins among all goalies this year?

Even if their salaries were equal, I don't see an argument for Jarry being better than Skinner. Recency bias will have Skinner's value in the tank, but I don't see any reason at all to replace him with an older, more expensive goalie with the exact same issues that Skinner has.

I don't see Jarry as a "true starter" either. He has four years of a starter's workload and he was only good in one of them.

A would honestly rather give up a first+ with Campbell in a Jarry swap than do Skinner and Jarry straight across.

 

[Empoleon8771]

you mean you don't recall when Skinner was an all-star last year, a Calder runner up rookie, and tied for 3rd in wins among all goalies this year?

Even if their salaries were equal, I don't see an argument for Jarry being better than Skinner. Recency bias will have Skinner's value in the tank, but I don't see any reason at all to replace him with an older, more expensive goalie with the exact same issues that Skinner has.

I don't see Jarry as a "true starter" either. He has four years of a starter's workload and he was only good in one of them.

Jarry's 2021-2022 were better than that year, not only in terms of raw numbers but also in terms of expected numbers. Skinner's 2022-2023 season had him at a GSAx of 6.8, compared to 12.8 for Jarry in 2021-2022. Jarry also got Vezina votes and end of year all-star votes (not making the all-star game, the end of year voting) that Skinner didn't get.

Either way, I think most people would consider Jarry better than Skinner, and it's not just about a "recency bias" with Skinner stinking in the playoffs this year. Skinner isn't a bad goalie at all, but I think most would call him more of a platoon goalie than Jarry. It is fair to raise the question about whether Jarry is a "true starter" as well, but I think he's closer to that than Skinner is.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Jarry's 2021-2022 were better than that year, not only in terms of raw numbers but also in terms of expected numbers. Skinner's 2022-2023 season had him at a GSAx of 6.8, compared to 12.8 for Jarry in 2021-2022. Jarry also got Vezina votes and end of year all-star votes (not making the all-star game, the end of year voting) that Skinner didn't get.

Either way, I think most people would consider Jarry better than Skinner, and it's not just about a "recency bias" with Skinner stinking in the playoffs this year.

You're hanging your proposal on the fact that Jarry got ONE 3rd place Vezina vote and ONE third place all star vote in 2021-22 (yeah, I looked) Come on man.

Jarry was awful last year and even worse in 2020-21. And frankly, 2021-22 was already a long time ago.

Jarry doesn't solve anything for us. The only significant playoff work he's ever gotten he was almost as bad against the Islanders as Skinner's been against Vancouver, so I don't think Edmonton wants any part of getting a more expensive goalie with a bad playoff track record. All the advantages of this trade are on the Penguins side of things.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You're hanging your proposal on the fact that Jarry got ONE 3rd place Vezina vote and ONE third place all star vote in 2021-22 (yeah, I looked) Come on man.

Jarry was awful last year and even worse in 2020-21. And frankly, 2021-22 was already a long time ago.

Jarry doesn't solve anything for us. The only significant playoff work he's ever gotten he was almost as bad against the Islanders as Skinner's been against Vancouver, so I don't think Edmonton wants any part of getting a more expensive goalie with a bad playoff track record. All the advantages of this trade are on the Penguins side of things.

Jarry had a better GSAx than Skinner last year, so if Jarry was "awful" last year, then so was Skinner.

You're overrating Skinner and underrating Jarry in here. Want to say that Jarry at $4.5 million isn't worth the extra money over Skinner at $2.5 million? Sure, but Jarry is a better goalie than Skinner.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Jarry had a better GSAx than Skinner last year, so if Jarry was "awful" last year, then so was Skinner.

You're overrating Skinner and underrating Jarry in here. Want to say that Jarry at $4.5 million isn't worth the extra money over Skinner at $2.5 million? Sure, but Jarry is a better goalie than Skinner.

yeah, no he didn't.

Per Moneypuck in 2022-23 Jarry had a -2.8 GSAX and Skinner had a +6.8 GSAX.

Jarry was slightly better this year at +2.6 to Skinner's +2.0, but last year it's not even a conversation.

Over the last two years Skinner has been the better goalie, and at half the price. That's not worth a straight swap, and it's definitely not worth Edmonton adding. Pass.

 

[Empoleon8771]

yeah, no he didn't.

Per Moneypuck in 2022-23 Jarry had a -2.8 GSAX and Skinner had a +6.8 GSAX.

Jarry was slightly better this year at +2.6 to Skinner's +2.0, but last year it's not even a conversation.

Over the last two years Skinner has been the better goalie, and at half the price. That's not worth a straight swap, and it's definitely not worth Edmonton adding. Pass.

"Last year" meaning 2023-2024.

Again, you're overrating Skinner and underrating Jarry in here.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

"Last year" meaning 2023-2024.

Again, you're overrating Skinner and underrating Jarry in here.

Our year isn't over yours might be, but we're still going.

You're overrating Jarry and underrating Skinner. Edmonton doesn't touch this. If we did trade Skinner, it would be in a package for someone that's actually played in the playoffs and not looked like Milhouse tied to the goalposts.

 

[Jacob]

Absolutely f'n not. Jarry hasn't been good, has an extra year, is owed more than Campbell and we get to give away Holloway.

Your proposal has the Oilers paying essentially $6.35M a year for Jarry for the next 3 years and losing Holloway and a 3rd to get the studly Nieto.

Yes.

 

[SEALBound]

Campbell + Holloway for Jarry is something I would consider but I think I would end up saying no to. Not sure Holloway is a good enough add to warrant taking on Campbell.

Skinner+Petrov for Jarry would be something I would probably do though.

 

[Toby Flenderson]

you mean you don't recall when Skinner was an all-star last year, a Calder runner up rookie, and tied for 3rd in wins among all goalies this year?

Even if their salaries were equal, I don't see an argument for Jarry being better than Skinner. Recency bias will have Skinner's value in the tank, but I don't see any reason at all to replace him with an older, more expensive goalie with the exact same issues that Skinner has.

I don't see Jarry as a "true starter" either. He has four years of a starter's workload and he was only good in one of them.

A would honestly rather give up a first+ with Campbell in a Jarry swap than do Skinner and Jarry straight across.

The OP is junk at making threads

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Campbell + Holloway for Jarry is something I would consider but I think I would end up saying no to. Not sure Holloway is a good enough add to warrant taking on Campbell.

Skinner+Petrov for Jarry would be something I would probably do though.

I’d probably do the first one as an Oiler fan though losing Holloway would hurt. No interest in the second one.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

I’d probably do the first one as an Oiler fan though losing Holloway would hurt. No interest in the second one.

I'd rather trade Petrov than Holloway. We don't have a good track record of playing young players and Holloway in the top 6 looked great last night.