Rene Lecavalier Division Finals Guelph Platers (1) vs Elmira Jackals (2)

[ResilientBeast]

Guelph Platers
1986 Memorial Cup Champions

Home Rink: Guelph Memorial Gardens (1948)
GM: BraveCanadian
Coach: Al Arbour
Captain: Syl Apps Sr.
Alternates: Hap Day / Sylvio Mantha


Alexander Ovechkin - Adam Oates - Bryan Hextall Sr.
Paul Thompson - Syl Apps Sr. - Alf Smith
Kevin Stevens - John Tavares - Bobby Rousseau
Gilles Tremblay - Don Luce - Jean Pronovost

"Moose" Johnson - Brad Park
Hap Day - Sylvio Mantha
Andrei Markov - Jiri Bubla

Ken Dryden
Pekka Rinne

Reserves
Nathan MacKinnon - Bill Hajt - Jason Pominville

Powerplay:
PP1: Alexander Ovechkin - Syl Apps Sr. - Bryan Hextall Sr. - Andrei Markov - Brad Park
PP2: Paul Thompson - Adam Oates - Kevin Stevens - Bobby Rousseau - Jiri Bubla

Penalty Kill:
PK1: Don Luce - Gilles Tremblay - Moose Johnson - Sylvio Mantha
PK2: Adam Oates - Jean Pronovost - Hap Day - Brad Park​

Elmira Jackals
coach Art Ross

Patrik Elias - Max Bentley - Bill Cook
Roy Conacher - Ted Kennedy (C) - Rod Gilbert
Jiri Holik - Pat LaFontaine - Alex Mogilny
Bobby Holik - Doug Jarvis - Bob Nystrom
Bruce Stuart, Harry Oliver

Marcel Pronovost - Eddie Shore (A)
Mike Grant (A) - Vladimir Lutchenko
Cy Wentworth - Rob Ramage
Pat Egan

Glenn Hall
Paddy Moran​

Click to read more...

 

[BraveCanadian]

Looking forward to this one. At first glance we have two similarly constructed teams with plenty of depth down the center, steady defense and excellent goaltending. 3 lines are "scoring" lines with the 4th line on both teams stronger defensively (and in Guelph's case especially, still able to score at ES).

I think our centers are better offensively across the board while Elmira has intangibles king Kennedy in the mix. IMO our compliment of wingers is stronger as well, especially after the Cook/Ovechkin.

Elmira makes up ground by having Shore over Park and Hall over Dryden, although both sides are strong in each position.

Al Arbour has to give us a strong coaching advantage here, particularly with home ice.

 

[VanIslander]

Al Arbour has to give us a strong coaching advantage here, particularly with home ice.

Art Ross won 7 divisional titles and two Stanley Cups over a span of 10 coaching seasons.

Ross has his number one weapon on the team in Eddie Shore. He was the winningest coach Bruins history for over 70 years.

Arbour wins hay for being the coach of the dynasty Isles. He had a losing record for 5 of the 9 full seasons thereafter.

The difference between the two can be argued to be slight rather than strong.

 

[Dreakmur]

I would agree that Al Arbour has always seemed over-rated to me. There’s just something about coaching multiple teams to success that I value a lot, and he doesn’t bring that.

Having said that, I’d have to be convinced why I should consider Art Ross anything more than a weak coach in a 24 team draft.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I would agree that Al Arbour has always seemed over-rated to me. There’s just something about coaching multiple teams to success that I value a lot, and he doesn’t bring that.

Having said that, I’d have to be convinced why I should consider Art Ross anything more than a weak coach in a 24 team draft.

Mostly agree with you, though Arbour does also have 1993.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I would agree that Al Arbour has always seemed over-rated to me. There’s just something about coaching multiple teams to success that I value a lot, and he doesn’t bring that.

Having said that, I’d have to be convinced why I should consider Art Ross anything more than a weak coach in a 24 team draft.

All things being equal it is nice to see a coach have success in multiple organizations, but a lot of the coaches that are drafted here are known primarily for one stop.

That being said, Arbour was a dynamite coach to have the success that he did building a dynasty, being a dynasty, and have a major, major, upset after the dynasty as well.

Mostly agree with you, though Arbour does also have 1993.

Yup.. Arbour stopped a dynasty in the making coached by Scotty Bowman using his far inferior Isles team while missing their best player..

The coaching of Al Arbour. He is getting something from everybody on his bench, the same way Scotty Bowman did against Roger Neilson last year. Arbour matches defensemen Darius Kasparaitis and Rich Pilon and the Claude Loiselle-Green-Brad Dalgarno line against [Kevin Stevens] (3-6-9), [Mario Lemieux] (3-5-8) and [Rick Tocchet] (3-3-6). At home, he got Steve Thomas away from checker Jeff Daniels. Arbour lost to Bowman's Canadiens in the 1977 and 1978 semifinals and beat Bowman's Sabres in the 1980 semifinals. If the Islanders win this series, he should obtain a magician's license.

Spoiler

The Islanders did pull off the upset against the two-time defending Cup champion Penguins who were coached by Scotty Bowman and featuring Mario Lemieux! No word on whether or not Arbour received his magician's license.

 

[Dreakmur]

All things being equal it is nice to see a coach have success in multiple organizations, but a lot of the coaches that are drafted here are known primarily for one stop.

Yes, most coaches are known for one stop, but that’s what separates the elite for me.

Arbour is one of the really good guys in the second tier.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Yes, most coaches are known for one stop, but that’s what separates the elite for me.

Arbour is one of the really good guys in the second tier.

Going to have to agree to disagree on this one!

In any case it doesn't have much to do with this series when both coaches are most known for coaching one team.

 

[VanIslander]

Is dreaks gonna do his vs.x anslysis?

I'm curious.

 

[Dreakmur]

Is dreaks gonna do his vs.x anslysis?

I'm curious.

If you're asking me to do it, I can.

 

[Dreakmur]

Here are the 7 season ESvs.X scores.

Ovechkin-Oates-Hextall 96.0+83.9+79.3=259.2
Thompson-*Apps-*Smith 82.6+87.0+70=239.6
Stevens-Tavares-Rousseau 67.9+82.9+70.7=221.5
Tremblay-Luce-Pronovost

(Alf Smith is arbitrary. Syl Apps has a wartime adjustment)

Elias-*Bentley-Cook 79.6+83.3+104.4=267.3
*Conacher-Kennedy-Gilbert 92.0+78.0+82.0=252
*Holik-Lafontaine-Mogilny 70+75.7+78.7=224.4
Holik-Jarvis-Nystrom

(Max Bentley has a wartime adjustment. Roy Conacher has a wartime adjustment and a "cheater" season adjustment. Jiri Holik is arbitrary)

Super busy with work - I'll try to finish the rest tomorrow.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Here are the 7 season ESvs.X scores.

Ovechkin-Oates-Hextall 96.0+83.9+79.3=259.2
Thompson-*Apps-*Smith 82.6+87.0+70=239.6
Stevens-Tavares-Rousseau
Tremblay-Luce-Pronovost

(Alf Smith is a guess. Syl Apps has a wartime adjustment)

Elias-*Bentley-Cook 79.6+83.3+104.4=267.3
*Conacher-Kennedy-Gilbert 92.0+78.0+82.0=252
Holik-Lafontaine-Mogilny
Holik-Jarvis-Nystrom

(Max Bentley has a wartime adjustment. Roy Conacher has a wartime adjustment and a "cheater" season adjustment)

Super busy with work - I'll try to finish the rest tomorrow.

The fact that Roy Conacher apparently looks better than Syl Apps or Max Bentley by this method is maybe a hint that ES/PP/SH splits from that far back probably aren't to be trusted.

 

[Dreakmur]

The fact that Roy Conacher apparently looks better than Syl Apps or Max Bentley by this method is maybe a hint that ES/PP/SH splits from that far back probably aren't to be trusted.

Bentley scored 182 of his 544 points on the PP. He also scored 2 on the PK. That’s 360 even strength points in 644 games.

Apps scored 83 of 432 on the PP and 8 more on the PK. That’s 341 even strength points in 423 games.

Conacher scored 79 of his 427 on the PP and just 1 on the PK. That’s 347 even strength points in 490 games.

Based on this, Bentley was clearly the weakest of the three at even strength. Perhaps it appears that Apps should be closer to Conacher, but it’s not far off.

 

[VanIslander]

Bentley was clearly the strongest of the three on the powerplay.

And he has Bill Cook as his wingman, like no offensive force Bentley had as 3rd center on the dynasty Leafs.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Bentley scored 182 of his 544 points on the PP. He also scored 2 on the PK. That’s 360 even strength points in 644 games.

Apps scored 83 of 432 on the PP and 8 more on the PK. That’s 341 even strength points in 423 games.

Conacher scored 79 of his 427 on the PP and just 1 on the PK. That’s 347 even strength points in 490 games.

Based on this, Bentley was clearly the weakest of the three at even strength. Perhaps it appears that Apps should be closer to Conacher, but it’s not far off.

I'm pretty sure there was some issue with 1940s Boston not recording any PP goals. Since I'm too lazy to look it up, does @overpass remember?

 

[Dreakmur]

I'm pretty sure there was some issue with 1940s Boston not recording any PP goals. Since I'm too lazy to look it up, does @overpass remember?

Boston was credited with 4 PP goals that season.

 

[VanIslander]

So Apps is less of an even strength scorer than even his vs.x indicates.

 

[Dreakmur]

So Apps is less of an even strength scorer than even his vs.x indicates.

For the sake of vetting, here are the yearly percentages I got for Apps:
100(1937), 100(1938), 90(1941), 90(1947), *78(war), *78(war), 75(1943), 74(1942), 73(1939), 70(1948), 67(1946), 66(1940)

 

[overpass]

I'm pretty sure there was some issue with 1940s Boston not recording any PP goals. Since I'm too lazy to look it up, does @overpass remember?

Details in this thread.

New NHL Historical Data - Situational scoring

The NHL's position is that the historical game sheets are the data and they are not going to make any exceptions. So the official numbers are what they are.

I still think there is something wrong with the Boston numbers, but that's just my sense from working with data that something doesn't add up here. For example, I can't believe it's accurate that Boston was by far the best offensive regular season team in 1939-40, scoring 170 goals, while other teams scored 90-136 goals, but then only scored 4 PP goals while the other teams scored between 10-16 PP goals on the season. It's up to you if you want to buy into that.

Whatever the reason, you could say that Boston was a higher EV scoring environment and more conducive to putting up EV points in this time.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Surprised by these ES vsx numbers to be honest, but they matter a lot more for the 3rd and 4th lines (I'm interested to see the 4ths too) than for the Top 6.. or are we pretending there aren't special teams now?

 

[VanIslander]

Surprised by these ES vsx numbers to be honest, but they matter a lot more for the 3rd and 4th lines (I'm interested to see the 4ths too) than for the Top 6.. or are we pretending there aren't special teams now?

You are surprised that every one of my top 3 lines has a higher vs.x than those? Me, too. I don't reference that stat. But it is not surprising given the fact I'd only pick OV from that forward core over any of mine. Plus I have a better #1D and 1G.

 

[VanIslander]

Note: I corrected the mistake.

Obviously the Jackals have the better vs.x. (Posting while multitasking on foot can be difficult to get right).

 

[BraveCanadian]

They suprising have the better ES VsX but that is with some adjustments that quite frankly have to be taken with a pretty big grain of salt.

For example Holik being a 70 arbitrarily puts him ahead of Kevin Stevens even though Stevens actually played in the NHL and was a top level force albeit in a shortened prime. Apps similarly suffers from some missed time and the war which is another reason why I thought having him on a second line here made a lot of sense.

I've also broken up some of my players across the lineup so we make up ground on the lower lines where players like Rousseau are sheltered at ES but get PP time just like he did in real life. Therefore his actually impact should be closer to his real 75.5 than 70.7 at ES.

These front line players get a significant amount of higher event time on the PP so it is not realistic to look at them in an ES vaccuum anyways. For example:

1st lines:
Ovechkin-Oates-Hextall 98.4+90.0+80.9=269.3
Elias-*Bentley-Cook 78.9+90.4+96=265.3

Then add on top here that Hextall + Ovechkin > Cook in the wearing down the opposition department. Elias gives them a good two-way prescence on the line but he's a third wheel here.

 

[Dreakmur]

They suprising have the better ES VsX but that is with some adjustments that quite frankly have to be taken with a pretty big grain of salt.

For example Holik being a 70 arbitrarily puts him ahead of Kevin Stevens even though Stevens actually played in the NHL and was a top level force albeit in a shortened prime. Apps similarly suffers from some missed time and the war which is another reason why I thought having him on a second line here made a lot of sense.

I've also broken up some of my players across the lineup so we make up ground on the lower lines where players like Rousseau are sheltered at ES but get PP time just like he did in real life. Therefore his actually impact should be closer to his real 75.5 than 70.7 at ES.

These front line players get a significant amount of higher event time on the PP so it is not realistic to look at them in an ES vaccuum anyways. For example:

1st lines:
Ovechkin-Oates-Hextall 98.4+90.0+80.9=269.3
Elias-*Bentley-Cook 78.9+90.4+96=265.3

Then add on top here that Hextall + Ovechkin > Cook in the wearing down the opposition department. Elias gives them a good two-way prescence on the line but he's a third wheel here.

The entire purpose of using ES numbers is to remove their PP contributions for the purposes of comparing them at ES.

 

[BraveCanadian]

The entire purpose of using ES numbers is to remove their PP contributions for the purposes of comparing them at ES.

I get that, but obviously both matter.