Rene Lecavalier Division Final - Chicago Shamrocks vs Pittsburgh AC

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Chicago Shamrocks

Head Coach: Cecil Hart
Captain: Mario Lemieux
Alternate Captains: Ebbie Goodfellow, Brian Sutter

Busher Jackson - Mario Lemieux - Ace Bailey
Henrik Zetterberg - Milan Novy - Charlie Conacher
Brian Sutter - Walt Tkaczuk - Bob Nevin
Brendan Morrow - Bill Thoms - Tony Amonte
Craig Conroy, Alf Skinner

Vladimir Lutchenko - Bill Gadsby
Ebbie Goodfellow - Bob Goldham
Brian Campbell - Jiri Bubla
Bob Dailey, Jerry Korab

Charlie Gardiner
Percy LeSueur

PP1
Busher Jackson - Mario Lemieux - Charlie Conacher
Ebbie Goodfellow - Bill Gadsby

PP2
Milan Novy - Lemieux/Zetterberg - Tony Amonte
Jiri Bubla - Vladimir Lutchenko

PK1
Walt Tkaczuk - Bob Nevin
Ebbie Goodfellow - Bob Goldham

PK2
Henrik Zetterberg - Ace Bailey
Vladimir Lutchenko - Bill Gadsby

Extra PK F: Bill Thoms

VS

Pittsburgh Athletic Club

Coach Hap Day

Patrik Elias - Frank Nighbor - Bryan Hextall
Keith Tkachuk - Max Bentley - Cecil Dillon
Jiri Holik - Jeremy Roenick - Eric Nesterenko
Zach Parise - Steve Kasper - Mike Foligno

Valeri Vasiliev (A) - Viacheslav Fetisov (C)
Leo Reise - Art Ross
Bobby Rowe - Lars-Erik Sjoberg (A)

Georges Vezina
Paddy Moran

Spares: Bobby Holik, Ken Randall, Mathieu Schneider, Ray Whitney

PP
Elias-Nighbor-Hextall
Fetisov-Bentley

Tkachuk-Roenick-Dillon
Ross-Sjoberg

PK
Kasper-Nesterenko
Vasiliev-Reise

Nighbor-Dillon
Rowe-Fetisov​

Click to read more...

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Offensive Juggernaut vs. Defensive Juggernaut...

Here's to a good series RS, hope to be back with opening remarks and any lineup changes this evening.

 

[Rob Scuderi]

Offensive Juggernaut vs. Defensive Juggernaut...

Here's to a good series RS, hope to be back with opening remarks and any lineup changes this evening.

Looking forward to it HT. Probably won't have much to say tonight with the Pens game, but I should start chipping in tomorrow.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Looking forward to it HT. Probably won't have much to say tonight with the Pens game, but I should start chipping in tomorrow.

I hear ya, any comments I make will be coming inbetween periods of the Hawks game

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

HT, you built like an even more suped-up version of my team, Im definitely glued to this series boys, good luck to both of you.

 

[Rob Scuderi]

First Lines

7 year VsX scores
Lemieux: 120.4
Conacher: 97.1
Hextall: 84.5
Elias: 79.2
Zetterberg: 76.7

Nighbor doesn't fit in of course, but it doesn't matter much being compared to Lemieux. Very different players, but obvious edge to Lemieux.

Conacher and Hextall are the physical goal-scorers on each line, but Charlie has the edge. He was a more dominant scorer and better in the playoffs as well.

Elias and Zetterberg are pretty close. Two-way wingers who played a big role on Stanley Cup winning teams. Elias has the edge offensively and Zetterberg defensively. Elias peaked higher in the regular season and Zetterberg in the playoffs. They're basically a wash imo.

Top lines have to go to Chicago. Pittsburgh's is built differently around Nighbor and definitely has a defensive edge, but Chicago just has so much firepower.

 

[Rob Scuderi]

Second Lines

7 year VsX scores
Bentley: 94.9
Jackson: 90
Tkachuk: 79.3
Dillon: 78.4
Bailey: 68.1

Novy doesn't fit in, but like Lemieux-Nighbor I'm not sure it matters. Bentley finished 24th in the center project and very well may be the best second line center in the draft after Forsberg. Novy missed the #60 cut and is a lower-end center in a 28 team draft. Bentley was great in the playoffs as well helping his case during a comparison during the postseason.

Jackson's the second best player on either line and a clear step up from his physical counterpart in Tkachuk. Tkachuk stunk in the playoffs which makes the big gap between the two even larger.

Bailey and Dillon were both solid two-way wingers. Bailey's offense is really weak for a scorer though. He has a nice peak season, but his scoring resume is really thin outside of it. He has a scoring title, two other top 10 seasons, and one finish in the 11-20 range. Bailey's offense dropped before the Shore incident as well. He finished 53rd and 59th in scoring the two seasons before having his career ended. Dillon can't match his scoring title, but he has 2 top ten finishes to Bailey's 3 and 7 top 20 seasons to Bailey's 4. This is how we have a significant gap in VsX scores. Bailey was noted for his defensive game, but he doesn't make up ground on Dillon here.

I see Pittsburgh with the edge in second lines. Bailey's scoring is pretty weak on a scoring line and while Jackson's great, Novy's a lower-end center here. Tkachuk's 7 year VsX score places him 23rd among LWS tied with Goulet and Shanahan. Obviously that doesn't count for how weak he was in the playoffs, but considering his physical game I don't see how he can be considered a low-end second liner. Dillon's 7 year VsX places him 29th among RWs and considering playoff scoring and defensive game I think he's a good option for second lines. I see the differences in how weak the two weakest members of each line are as the swing in Pittsburgh's favor here.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

LINEUP CHANGES FOR CHICAGO SHAMROCKS

Sorry for the delay RS, I got caught up in the Hawks game last night and had a very long work day today.

Forwards
Chicago is going to shuffle their lines in this series going from the monster 1st line to a little more balanced attack. This is being done primarily because we don't want Pittsburgh to be able to rely heavily on their great top D pairing to focus on our big line. The top 2 lines for Chicago are as follows:

Busher Jackson - Mario Lemieux - Ace Bailey
Henrik Zetterberg - Milan Novy - Charlie Conacher​

Charlie Conacher is an elite force on a second line that will cause matchup problems for any team. Lemieux still gets a power forward on his line in Jackson and a defensive presence in Bailey. He will obviously be asked to carry more of the offense here, but last time I checked he's pretty ok at that.


Defense
It's no secret that Pittsburgh is a great defensive team, and because of that Chicago is going to insert a more offensive Dman on their bottom pairing who is a great skater and a solid puck-mover and rusher that will help dissect the Pittsburgh D. The bottom pairing for Chicago will be:

Brian Campbell - Jiri Bubla

I did not do a bio on Campbell. Here is one from 2012: Brian Campbell

Here are Campbell's top 30 scoring finishes among Dmen: 2, 3, 10, 12, 18, 22, 28*, 29
*only 68 GP


RS, I see you already started comparing the forward lines, my apologies for these changes disrupting that analysis. I should have some time this weekend for further analysis and discussion.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Goaltendng

Goaltending should be considered even in this series. Both goalies were considered the greatest of their time, although Gardiner's was a little more clear with him playing in a fully consolidated league, and having direct evidence of his domination via AS Team Awards for the last 4 yrs of his career, wheres Vezina had time in a non-consolidated league and his peer Benedict has at least a case against him (for the record I rank Vezina over Benedict).

Both bios for these two netminders contain some great info, and I recommend everyone read them. A little clarification on the great Vezina bio by TDMM: he lists retro-Vezina Awards for Georges Vezina (that's a mouthful)...these are not years where he was named the best goaltender, they are years where he led the league in GAA (a heavily team-influenced stat). Personally I would call that a retro-Jennings (the modern Jennings retroactively awarded) although it's very easy to see why TDMM listed it like he did. In the end it doesn't matter as long as everyone is aware of what they are looking at.

IMO Gardiner has a better peak and two absolutely phenomenal playoffs (see bio), but Vezina is not far behind and definitely has a longevity advantage. One thing that should be noted is that Gardiner's career was not short because he was no longer good enough to compete skill-wise, he died while in the middle of the peak of his career. And how did he die? He had Tuberculosis in the 1934 Cup Finals and refused to not play. Instead he carried a relatively weak Black Hawks team to a Cup win and later succumbed to the illness. It should also be noted that in Gardiner's 7 seasons before his death he only missed 4 games.


Finally, a quote that puts both of these goaltenders at the same level...

Of the big Rangers squad, only Davey Kerr, the little goalie, has been recognized as a star. There's no forward on the squad with a reputation such as Howie Morenz, Bill Cook, Nels Stewart, Chuck Conacher, and even older and more famous stars of the past. The defensemen haven't had the publicity granted Ching Johnson, Eddie Shore, or Lionel Conacher. And Kerr isn't being classed with Chuck Conacher or Georges Vezina.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?i...AJ&pg=3878,46195&dq=chuck+gardiner+best&hl=en


Edit: These 2 were also ranked back-to-back in the HOH top goalies project

 

[Dreakmur]

First Lines

7 year VsX scores
Lemieux: 120.4
Conacher: 97.1
Hextall: 84.5
Elias: 79.2
Zetterberg: 76.7

Nighbor doesn't fit in of course, but it doesn't matter much being compared to Lemieux. Very different players, but obvious edge to Lemieux.

Frank Nighbor, according to my consolidation study, has a score of 83.6.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Another look at the 1st and 2nd lines with Chicago's changes and Dreakmur's score for Frank Nighbor...

First Lines
7 year VsX scores

Lemieux: 120.4
Jackson: 90
Hextall: 84.5
Nighbor: 83.6
Elias: 79.2
Bailey: 68.1


Second Lines
7 year VsX scores

Conacher: 97.1
Bentley: 94.9
*Novy*
Tkachuk: 79.3
Dillon: 78.4
Zetterberg: 76.7

*We do not have a score Milan Novy. I think it is fair to say he would fall somewhere between Bentley and Tkachuk, but it is more difficult to say exactly where. I have listed his CSSR points finishes below.

Milan Novy: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Well, unfortunately RS and I haven't been able to get in a lot of discussion so far. With the voting period approaching soon, here are my quick thoughts on this series.

Forwards: advantage Chicago

Defense: advantage Pittsburgh

Goaltending: Even

Coaching: advantage Pittsburgh. Hart is above average, but not on Day's level. Both coaches fit their teams' styles well.

Leadership: advantage Chicago. Fetisov is a fine Captain, but Pittsburgh can't match the depth Chicago has (10 players at one point wearing the C in their career). Also Pittsburgh appears to have a lack of leadership up front, with not a single forward wearing a letter.

Special Teams: advantage Chicago. A large advantage on the PP for Chicago. Pittsburgh likely has a small advantage on the PK, but the PP gap is much larger.


Why Chicago Should Win This Series

- Balancing of the top 2 lines for Chicago doesn't allow Pittsburgh to rely heavily on their strong top D pairing

- Chicago gets strong puck movement and rushing on all 3 D-pairings (Gadsby, Goodfellow, Campbell) which is exactly what you need to dissect a strong defensive team like Pittsburgh

- Pittsburgh is lacking offense up front. They may be able to limit Chicago's offense somewhat, but with all that firepower and a deadly PP Chicago is going to score. Can Pittsburgh keep up? They will rely heavily on Max Bentley, and Chicago has a strong defensive center on it's checking line to go against him in Walt Tkzachuk and when he can't be out there Henrik Zetterberg is a second option (although playing LW can rotate over to cover).

- Home Ice Advantage

- More rested. Chicago will be much fresher having only played a single 5-game series so far, whereas Pittsburgh has played 2 series, the last of which went to a 7th game. With Chicago's speed and big bodies up front they will be tiring to play against.

- Pittsburgh's top pick, Slava Fetisov, a player whose peak came while playing in a strict system, is playing outside his comfort zone on the right side instead of his usual left

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Frank Nighbor, according to my consolidation study, has a score of 83.6.

I said it in my own thread, but this doesn't seem to take into account how much less generous the NHA/NHL was at handing out assists back then, does it?

Both bios for these two netminders contain some great info, and I recommend everyone read them. A little clarification on the great Vezina bio by TDMM: he lists retro-Vezina Awards for Georges Vezina (that's a mouthful)...these are not years where he was named the best goaltender, they are years where he led the league in GAA (a heavily team-influenced stat). Personally I would call that a retro-Jennings (the modern Jennings retroactively awarded) although it's very easy to see why TDMM listed it like he did. In the end it doesn't matter as long as everyone is aware of what they are looking at.

I just copied the listings of the retro-Vezinas from another bio, which copied them from Ultimate Hockey, which does use GAA to determine "Retro Vezinas." We probably shouldn't use them anymore, since they are basically redundant with GAA and can be somewhat misleading.

 

[Rob Scuderi]

Sorry HT haven't had time at all to discuss this. Votes are basically in so this probably all for naught.

I agree with a lot of what you said. Pittsburgh's lacking firepower up front, but I'm not sure I agree the second line wingers are that weak. You split your best two wingers, but Bailey and Zetterberg are weaker offensively than Dillon and Tkachuk. I get you have Lemieux, but Bailey's really over his head on a top line. I was critical of him as a second liner offensively up thread, and as a first liner last year. Him bumping up in a draft this small seems like a tough sell. I think I showed his offense dropped before the Shore incident too so we can't just chalk it up to that.

I agree with your placement of Novy offensively, but that's where guys like Roenick and Nichols slot in. I think comparing him to other centers he's the weakest member of either second line after the reshuffling. I posted how Tkachuk finished 23rd among LWs in 7 year VsX and Dillon 29th among RWs. Adding in early era guys and European players, do either come close to a fringe 60th all-time placement as Novy essentially is?

I think Lutchenko is a little over his head on a top pair as well. Compared to a contemporary Soviet in Vasiliev for Pittsburgh, there's a huge difference in resumes. Lutchenko was never an IIHF all-star or Best D. I don't see how beating second and third pairing ATD Soviets in domestic league AST berths makes him fit as a #2.

I agree goaltending is essentially a wash. I think Vezina is barely ahead, but with 1 spot on an all-time it means little. I don't think anyone cares about the stats based case for him or people wouldn't consider him better than Benedict. It will be nice for Vezina to have Nighbor in front of him though compared to his Flying Frenchmen.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Chicago wins in 7 games

Stars:

1/2: Mario Lemieux/Frank Nighbor
3. Georges Vezina

Charlie Conacher and Slava Fetisov also played well

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Knew this would be a close one. You built a great team RS, and would have been a worthy division winner had things turned out differently.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Knew this would be a close one. You built a great team RS, and would have been a worthy division winner had things turned out differently.

I had it verrry close.

Tough sometimes to decide who wins when there is a clash of different styles.

IMO, there were several really well constructed teams this year.

 

[Rob Scuderi]

Good series HT, good luck in the semis.