René Lecavalier Semifinals: Belfast Giants vs. Chicago Shamrocks

[Hawkey Town 18]

Thanks for starting the Dmen analysis EB, I will definitely have a reply to it, particularly regarding Ken Reardon who I think is being underrated (EDIT: looks like Sturm already chimed in here), but I had already started on the Lundqvist comparison, so I finished that and here it is...


This is going to mostly look at Lundqvist compared to goaltenders that start getting drafted in the 20's. Because it was requested, I also included a couple guys from the next tier up, (Tony Esposito and Roy Worters).

I have not included Smith and Fuhr because so much of their resumes are based on the playoffs. Lehman has also been left out because of the split league era.

Vezina/All Star Records (Vezina used for when it became the award for best goalie and not lowest GAA)

Tony Esposito: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7
Roy Worters: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3 (No result for 1930, Gardiner led all goalies in Hart voting, Worters led in GAA)

These two have records clearly above the rest, I am not going to include them in further analysis, but wanted to make this known

_Tiny Thompson: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4 (What would his record look like if Charlie Gardiner hadn’t died?)
Henrik Lundqvist: 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 6, 6, 6* (*one vote) (also was 2005 Swedish League MVP)
__Tom Barrasso: 1, 2, 2, 2, 3
__Chuck Rayner: 1, 2, 2, 3 (missed 3 years to War) (His 1st was actually a 2nd but in this era the Vezina winner defaulted to 1st Team AS, Rayner was runner-up twice to the Vezina winner, I changed one of these to a 1st)
___Ed Giacomin: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2
__Johnny Bower: 1, 3, 3, 3, 3
__G. Hainsworth: 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5 (Missing 27, 29, 30)
_Gump Worsley: 1, 2, 3, 3, 4
__Harry Lumley: 1, 1, 3

Most Years Top 4:
7: Thompson
6: Lundqvist
5: Barrasso, Giacomin, Bower, Worsley
4: Rayner*
3: Lumley, Hainsworth*

*See above regarding time missed/incomplete records

Lundqvist looks very good in the above, and we must also consider that he had a lot more competition than some of the others. A 4th in the modern era means you're an elite goaltender, whereas a 4th in the O6 means you're in the bottom half of the league. The goaltending position has been affected more than any other by league expansion. Not including the year where he got 1 vote, Lundqvist has been named a top 6 goalie 8 years, and also was named the Swedish Elite League MVP the year before he came to the NHL (where he finished 3rd in Vezina voting as a rookie).


Playoffs/Big Games
These are a big part of a goaltender's legacy, of which Lundqvist's counterparts have better resumes. So far Lundqvist has one Cup Final run in which he was a Conn Smythe candidate (see my bio for sources). He also won Olympic Gold + Silver Medals and was named to WC AS Team in 2004. Here is an attempt to rank everyone's playoff/big game resumes.


Bower
Thompson/Hainsworth
Barrasso/Worsley/Lundqvist
Lumley/Rayner
Giacomin


This was tough for me, Bower is clearly #1 and Giacomin an easy last. Rayner is extremely difficult as he has a retro Smythe but only one other playoff appearance. I was pretty unsure where to rank Worsley as well. Any help with this is appreciated. Lundqvist is adding to his resume as we speak, but anything significant won't happen until this round is over.

Here is a deeper look at how Lundqvist’s teams have done with him in net with regards to winning/losing a series as a favorite/underdog (when you see the word slight favorite it means the teams were within a couple points, so basically even but it tells you who had home ice).

2006: Lost as an Underdog
2007: Won as a Slight Underdog ; Lost as an Underdog
2008: Won as a Slight Underdog ; Lost as an Underdog
2009: Lost as an Underdog
2010: N/A
2011: Lost as an Underdog
2012: Won as a Favorite; Won as a Favorite; Lost as a Favorite
2013: Won as an Underdog; Lost as a Slight Underdog
2014: Won as a Slight Favorite; Won as an Underdog; Won as an Underdog; Lost as an Underdog

So only once has Lundqvist’s team not won when they were “supposed to” which was in 2012 against New Jersey in the Conference Finals. Twice they have won as a slight underdog, and 3 times as an underdog. 10x his team has performed as was expected. To sum up, in 16 playoff series, 10 have been as expected, 5 better than expected, and 1 worse than expected.

I was pleasantly surprised to see how Lundqvist holds up here…he may not have the Cups of these other guys, but he has fewer disappointments than many of them and after last year he has one elite Cup run to go along with a few high end international performances.


Importance to Team
The next thing to look at is how important were these guys to their teams. Lundqvist has been one of, if not the best player on his team…named MVP 7x in 10 seasons. I would say the only guy who can hold a candle to that is Chuck Rayner, and he likely bests Lundqvist in this category.


Peer Comparison
Lundqvist has been the most consistently elite goaltender of his generation. How do the rest of these guys compare to other goaltenders born within a few years of them?

Bower: Bested by Plante/Hall/Sawchuk
Thompson: Bested by Gardiner
Hainsworth: Bested by Vezina/Benedict
Barrasso: Bested by Roy/Hasek/Belfour
Worsley: Bested by Plante/Hall/Sawchuk/Bower
Lumley: Bested by Plante/Sawchuk
Rayner: Bested by Durnan
Giacomin: Bested by Esposito/Parent


Final Summary: Among the above group of below-average goaltenders Lundqvist has one of the best Vezina/AS records, looks the best of anyone in a peer comparison, and was among the best in importance to his team. The one area where Lundqvist is pedestrian among this group is playoffs/big games, but I think I showed that his NHL playoff resume is actually pretty good, and when you factor in some high end international performances he isn’t as far behind as people generally consider him to be. Taking all things to consideration it appears as if Lundqvist deserves to be selected in the upper part of this group rather than the lower part.

*IMO Chuck Rayner also looks to be underrated relative to his draft position.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Playoffs/Big Games
These are a big part of a goaltender's legacy, of which Lundqvist's counterparts have better resumes. So far Lundqvist has one Cup Final run in which he was a Conn Smythe candidate (see my bio for sources). He also won Olympic Gold + Silver Medals and was named to WC AS Team in 2004. Here is an attempt to rank everyone's playoff/big game resumes.


Bower
Thompson/Hainsworth
Barrasso/Worsley/Lundqvist
Lumley/Rayner
Giacomin

Bower definitely first, Giacomin definitely last. Other than that, I would definitely drop Tiny Thompson, the backstop for the 30s Bruins, one of the biggest playoff disappointments in history. Hard to compare him to Rayner who rarely got a chance to play big games due to playing on a terrible team, but Rayner was excellent the one time the Rangers made a surprise run to the finals.

NHL only, Lundqvist is definitely below Barrasso and Worsley in big games, so I think it depends on how you view his games for Sweden.

 

[EagleBelfour]

- Jonas Brodin was and still is an excellent defensive defenceman, even in his rookie season. Quite exceptional for his age I would say, and an exception.

- To refine my comment: Kenneth Reardon is a better all-time defenceman than Babe Pratt. Perhaps I didn't make it clear enough. I agree with the statement that he's an average to low-end *2 defenceman. What I disagree is that you seem to think that Reardon is just that much better to Pratt, which for me isn't the case. Pratt is an high-end *3 defenceman and belongs somewhere between 60-70 in a all-time list. He's not that far off Reardon. Overall though, the second pairing is indeed better for the Shamrocks, but not by the margin you seem to imply

- I've selected Kenneth Reardon in the past, and I never had extensive notes on him being anything good defensively. A great offensive rusher, one of the nastiest player of his generation. A wrecking ball on the ice. Great defensively? Great shot blocker? Great at clearing the crease? I never read anything of this nature on Reardon. Mind you, I have selected him about 4-5 years ago, and I'm all ear to change my mind on him.

I'll have to read your analysis in a day or two Hawkeytown

 

[seventieslord]

Bower definitely first, Giacomin definitely last. Other than that, I would definitely drop Tiny Thompson, the backstop for the 30s Bruins, one of the biggest playoff disappointments in history. Hard to compare him to Rayner who rarely got a chance to play big games due to playing on a terrible team, but Rayner was excellent the one time the Rangers made a surprise run to the finals.

NHL only, Lundqvist is definitely below Barrasso and Worsley in big games, so I think it depends on how you view his games for Sweden.

you're right. I'd drop Hainsworth for the same reason, though. He and Thompson seem about the same to me in that regard.

Barrasso and Worsley are probably the two best behind Bower there in big games. Barrasso was who Lemieux wanted to give his Smythes to (allegedly), and Worsley is only ranked as high as he is because of team results, right?

 

[Sturminator]

Good lord, that goalie analysis is all over the ****ing place, H_T.

Goalies are not like skaters. You can't just compare raw voting records and leave it at that.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Good lord, that goalie analysis is all over the ****ing place, H_T.

Goalies are not like skaters. You can't just compare raw voting records and leave it at that.

Not sure I'll have time to get to anything more, but what do you suggest?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

you're right. I'd drop Hainsworth for the same reason, though. He and Thompson seem about the same to me in that regard.

Barrasso and Worsley are probably the two best behind Bower there in big games. Barrasso was who Lemieux wanted to give his Smythes to (allegedly), and Worsley is only ranked as high as he is because of team results, right?

I though Hainsworth was generally very good in the playoffs, or was he only excellent in the back to back Cup wins?

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Bower definitely first, Giacomin definitely last. Other than that, I would definitely drop Tiny Thompson, the backstop for the 30s Bruins, one of the biggest playoff disappointments in history. Hard to compare him to Rayner who rarely got a chance to play big games due to playing on a terrible team, but Rayner was excellent the one time the Rangers made a surprise run to the finals.

NHL only, Lundqvist is definitely below Barrasso and Worsley in big games, so I think it depends on how you view his games for Sweden.

Thompson did have a retro-Smythe, but you are probably right that he should be dropped down.

you're right. I'd drop Hainsworth for the same reason, though. He and Thompson seem about the same to me in that regard.

Barrasso and Worsley are probably the two best behind Bower there in big games. Barrasso was who Lemieux wanted to give his Smythes to (allegedly), and Worsley is only ranked as high as he is because of team results, right?

Barrasso was outstanding in both Pittsburgh Cup wins for sure, but wasn't he also in net for some of their major post-season disappointments? I don't particularly remember him being bad during those, but it's something to consider. Obviously I didn't have time to delve deep into their playoff resumes. Appreciate your guys help getting that list in order.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Barrasso was outstanding in both Pittsburgh Cup wins for sure, but wasn't he also in net for some of their major post-season disappointments? I don't particularly remember him being bad during those, but it's something to consider. Obviously I didn't have time to delve deep into their playoff resumes. Appreciate your guys help getting that list in order.

Yes, Barrasso had some really bad playoffs after 1992.

 

[jarek]

What gives you the idea that Kenny Reardon wasn't very good in his own end?

Canon, mostly, and also that Weber was likely (I'm open to hearing arguments to the contrary) a better defensive player than Reardon as well.

 

[Sturminator]

Babe Pratt vs. Ken Reardon: Again, two similar defenceman. Big, nasty, known for their offensive game. Not reknown for their defensive one. Pratt owns the one year edge, Reardon the 5 years one. Pratt do have longer longevity, as Reardon 5 seasons is pretty much all he as to show. I'll give the edge to Reardon, but Pratt is not far behind.

I feel like you are really overrating Babe Pratt here. Winning the Hart in 1944 is obviously impressive, but outside of that season, I'm not especially impressed by his career achievements. He seems to have been considered defensively suspect in a full-strength league, but excelled against lesser players during the war - not unlike Flash Hollett and Pat Egan, both of whom I also find questionable. I see shades of Al Iafrate and Kevin Hatcher in these players, and think they were probably helped more than anyone else by the thinning of talent during the war.

The idea of Pratt as a high-end #3...I just don't see it.

 

[Elvis P]

Here's a bio of Reardon: http://ourhistory.canadiens.com/player/Ken-Reardon

 

[EagleBelfour]

I feel like you are really overrating Babe Pratt here. Winning the Hart in 1944 is obviously impressive, but outside of that season, I'm not especially impressed by his career achievements. He seems to have been considered defensively suspect in a full-strength league, but excelled against lesser players during the war - not unlike Flash Hollett and Pat Egan, both of whom I also find questionable. I see shades of Al Iafrate and Kevin Hatcher in these players, and think they were probably helped more than anyone else by the thinning of talent during the war.

The idea of Pratt as a high-end #3...I just don't see it.

In the aggregate list of the All-Time top-defenceman, Babe Pratt almost made the top-60. He finished 64th or something along those lines. 64th makes him a borderline top-pairing defenceman or elite number3. I wouldn't put Pratt on a top pairing, because of his defensive gap, but his qualities as great, strong, offensive defenceman makes him more than worthy of an high-end number defenceman.

Here's a bio of Reardon: http://ourhistory.canadiens.com/player/Ken-Reardon

- Never a speedster nor elegant skater

I don't think a biography on the Montreal Canadiens site would indicate his gap defensively. I've read the biography and it's exactly the diea I've had on Reardon. Is someone wants to proove to be he was good defensively, I would like to read multiple quotes on this ... something I never came across in my life.

 

[Sturminator]

In the aggregate list of the All-Time top-defenceman, Babe Pratt almost made the top-60. He finished 64th or something along those lines. 64th makes him a borderline top-pairing defenceman or elite number3.

I hate these circular arguments, especially for players whose careers were not seriously discussed. The bottom-end of the ranking in the HOH defenseman project are highly problematic for a number of reasons. Pratt's "aggregate ranking" is above Jimmy Thomson's, for example, but I know you wouldn't be foolish enough to claim he was the better player.

This is just not an interesting argument.

 

[EagleBelfour]

I hate these circular arguments, especially for players whose careers were not seriously discussed. The bottom-end of the ranking in the HOH defenseman project are highly problematic for a number of reasons. Pratt's "aggregate ranking" is above Jimmy Thomson's, for example, but I know you wouldn't be foolish enough to claim he was the better player.

This is just not an interesting argument.

There's been a lot of discussion about Pratt and the other defenceman in the all-time list. Before picking Pratt, I went through the last few threads and read every discussion about Pratt. I feel very confident about the selection, and the amount of info in TDMM biography is appealing. Babe Pratt was the 81st defenceman selected, and there's no doubt for me he should be ranked much higher. I don't see why a Moose Vasko is consider a better all-time defenceman than Pratt for example. I stand by my claim that he is an elite *3 defenceman in this draft.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Regarding the bluelines of each team...since I have my #2 on the 2nd pairing I'll do an individual comparison:

Chelios vs. Pilote: Close but edge Chelios. EB I think you underplayed Pilote's offensive advantage and Chelios' defensive advantage. Both are well rounded for sure, but I think they easily beat each other in those two aspects. Small edge Chelios (Chicago)

Reardon vs. Mantha: These 2 are also close as average to a little below average #2's. Reardon has the higher peak with 2 “Retro Norrises†and 3 more 2nd Team AS. His career is short but he lost 3 seasons to the war and he did play on Army Teams during that time. Reardon did not have any AS finishes before the war but was a 2nd teamer in his first season back. Mantha has two 2nd Teams, but AS teams didn’t exist for part of his career. I believe he was top 5 in Hart voting once during that time but not the leading defenseman. I would say small edge Reardon (Chicago)

Vasko vs. Pratt: I would call both of these guys about average #3’s. EB and Sturm have already touched on Pratt…to add, Pratt’s only AS recognition was in war years (44 + 45), although in the one year he won the Hart trophy, so I would say he would’ve had an AS finish regardless in a full strength league. Vasko has two 2nd Team finishes himself and coincidentally was Pierre Pilote’s regular partner. I will call this comparison Even.

Ryan Suter vs. Davydov: I see Davydov as an average #4, but Suter as an average to below average #3. Suter has an AS record better than many #3’s (2, 5, 6, 10) and likely missed out on some AS recognition by being overshadowed by teammate Shea Weber, as he finished runner-up for the Norris in his first year away from Weber, and 4th for the Norris the year after that. Edge Suter (Chicago)

Larson vs. Liapkin: Pretty funny that I debated between these 2 players when I picked Larson, they are very similar as offensive specialist. I found that Larson was a better fit on the PP with his big shot and more proven track record. Either way this is close enough to call Even.

Sjoberg vs. Russell: I see Sjoberg as a high-end #4 and Russell as an average #4. Russell’s only notable Norris finish is a 10th, Sjoberg was named WHA Best Dman, WC Best Dman, and won the Guldpucken award in Sweden. He was also Captain of the Jets for 3 Avco Championships. Edge Sjoberg (Chicago)

Regarding chemistry, the Suter-Reardon combo has been discussed and I am in agreement with Sturm, Reardon’s style of play seems VERY similar to a young Shea Weber. I’m sure we all remember Weber having to adjust to having no Suter, while Suter made his transition in stride. While Sjoberg has good offensive skills, he is perfectly able to cover for Larson in their limited ES minutes. Sjoberg is described as a complete player, extremely intelligent, and brings a physical game. Quote from my bio “His talent for choosing the right position, combined with effective bodychecking, made him a virtually impenetrable force to opposing forwards.â€


Chicago's advantage on the blueline will help make up for the large goaltending edge held by Belfast.

It’s been a busy week for me, I will try to at least do a brief forward comparison before voting ends.

 

[Sturminator]

Not sure I'll have time to get to anything more, but what do you suggest?

I should have answered this a while ago, but I would suggest sticking with a like-to-like comparison. It's more difficult to objectively compare goalies across eras than it is forwards or even defensemen for a variety of reasons. A comparison between the AST voting records of Lundqvist and guys like Thompson and Hainesworth just isn't going to give us much of value, and is likely to be misleading.

There are plenty of modern goalies whose ATD values are relatively established, however, to whom Lundqvist could be compared. Even if you want to avoid Hasek, Roy and Brodeur, why not just compare him to Belfour and Barrasso?

 

[Sturminator]

Belfast wins in 7-OT
- Three stars: Plante, Malone, Malkin

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

This was the hardest series for me to vote on; I really didn't want to vote against either team. Not surprised it was super close.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Good series EB! Sorry I wasn't able to participate more...we never got to the forwards, but some good stuff on the goaltenders and D. Good luck next round!

 

[Sturminator]

This was the hardest series for me to vote on; I really didn't want to vote against either team. Not surprised it was super close.

I had a tough time with this one, as well. The voting was unusually close for a 2nd round matchup for a good reason, I'd say.