Red Fisher Conference Prelim Round - Ottawa Senators vs Chicago Shamrocks

Hawkey Town 18

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Toe Blake and Elmer Lach should provide a lot of support defensively.

And as for our first pairing being weak defensively, Mike Bossy disagrees.

http://oilerslegends.blogspot.ca/2007/02/kevin-lowe.html?m=1



Pelletier also describes Lowe as a "defensive genius".

Everyone knows Lowe was the best defensive Dman on those extremely offensive minded Oilers teams. None of this is new info, and it has all been factored in to his draft position over the years. Lowe is consistently an above average to high-end #4 defensive minded defensemen in this. He is out of place on a top pairing, and with a more offensively minded #1 like MacInnis as his partner the pair is weaker defensively than almost all other top pairings. Normally, you make up for that with elite goaltending, but your opponent has an elite goaltender as well, making your advantage very small in that regard.
 

overpass

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Bossy > Blake: This is the largest gap of the three comparisons. Bossy is way ahead of Blake offensively. Both are pluses defensively, but nothing special.

Mike Bossy, above average defensively? They said about him in junior that he "couldn't check his coat." Then the rest of his career they said "no, he actually can check his coat." Faint praise.

Toe Blake was known as a very hard worker who was always in the right place. While I don't have any direct quotes about his hockey IQ, the fact that he became the greatest coach in history to date should tell us something.

Everyone knows Lowe was the best defensive Dman on those extremely offensive minded Oilers teams. None of this is new info, and it has all been factored in to his draft position over the years. Lowe is consistently an above average to high-end #4 defensive minded defensemen in this. He is out of place on a top pairing, and with a more offensively minded #1 like MacInnis as his partner the pair is weaker defensively than almost all other top pairings. Normally, you make up for that with elite goaltending, but your opponent has an elite goaltender as well, making your advantage very small in that regard.

Efficient ATD theory? Maybe we should just compare draft positions instead of players now.

What do you have to say about Kevin Lowe the player?
 

Hawkey Town 18

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Mike Bossy, above average defensively? They said about him in junior that he "couldn't check his coat." Then the rest of his career they said "no, he actually can check his coat." Faint praise.

Toe Blake was known as a very hard worker who was always in the right place. While I don't have any direct quotes about his hockey IQ, the fact that he became the greatest coach in history to date should tell us something.

From my Bossy bio...

Joe Pelletier
And Bossy worked very hard at becoming a well rounded player. He openly admitted to not playing any defense in his junior days, but he became a very reliable back checker with the Isles.
...
But he also took great pride in working on his all around game, and became a very dependable defensive player and underrated playmaker.


Legends of Hockey
It was in the NHL that he had to learn the ABCs of playing in his own end. It was very rare to come across press reports about how Wayne Gretzky or Mario Lemieux played in their own end zones, but journalists wrote a lot about Bossy's defensive skills.

Outside of penalty killing, where are the quotes about Blake's defensive game?



Efficient ATD theory? Maybe we should just compare draft positions instead of players now.

What do you have to say about Kevin Lowe the player?

I thought I did say something about him...I said he was the best defensive defenseman on a very offensive minded team. I said I thought he was an above average to high-end #4. I understand your point about not evaluating players by draft position, but prior ATD rankings should count for something. Also, isn't the onus usually on the GM trying to change canon to prove why his player should jump ahead of those he was previously ranked behind? You provided a couple quotes about his defensive play, which are nice, and I agree that he is a good defensive player, but I don't think a couple quotes automatically boosts him up to 1st pairing caliber. Is Lowe really on the level of other first pairing Dmen who are the "more defensive half" of their pair? If so, can you name some of them and tell us why you think they are equal or close?
 
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overpass

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I thought I did say something about him...I said he was the best defensive defenseman on a very offensive minded team. I said I thought he was an above average to high-end #4. I understand your point about not evaluating players by draft position, but prior ATD rankings should count for something. Also, isn't the onus usually on the GM trying to change canon to prove why his player should jump ahead of those he was previously ranked behind? You provided a couple quotes about his defensive play, which are nice, and I agree that he is a good defensive player, but I don't think a couple quotes automatically boosts him up to 1st pairing caliber. Is Lowe really on the level of other first pairing Dmen who are the "more defensive half" of their pair? If so, can you name some of them and tell us why you think they are equal or close?

Best defensive defenseman on an offensive-minded dynasty, and a core member of the team and leadership group. Selected to play in seven all-star games.

In the 1983 and 1984 Stanley Cup finals, Mike Bossy scored 2 goals in 9 games. Sounds like Kevin Lowe could play with him...

The following players are on an ATD first pairing as the defensive half of a pairing:

Dallas Smith
Cy Wentworth
Jim Schoenfeld
Vladimir Knstantinov
Bob Baun
Ulf Samuelsson
Herb Gardiner
Mike Grant
Harvey Pulford
Lionel Hitchman
Ott Heller
Si Griffis

Kevin Lowe will do fine.
 

overpass

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From my Bossy bio...

Joe Pelletier



Legends of Hockey


Outside of penalty killing, where are the quotes about Blake's defensive game?

That Bossy quote is what I'm getting at. "He turned himself into a reliable backchecker." Good for him, but I wouldn't call a reliable backchecking winger a plus defensive player at this level. In the 1980s the bar wasn't exactly high for backchecking. I don't think he's a liability or anything, just not Toe Blake in this ar

Some other quotes on Blake from the bio:

there is one thing for which Blake didn't take any credit: he is a worker. Every second he is on the ice, he is digging. He skates ceaselessly, bores in all the time, and is trying every inch of the way.

That quote is from Blake's younger days. Shows the effort and work ethic was there from the beginning, and that's a big part of defensive play for a winger.

"Blake was the backbone of that group (Ed. The Punch Line)," explained Lach. "He was always in position; he was always serious and he was the same when he coached the Canadiens. The three of us did like to win. We made sure that we didn't have any goals scored against us. We hated that more than wanting to score.

Blake's work ethic and positioning were also key to the success of the Punch Line when he was older. You don't see any quotes about Bossy's work ethic and positioning being a key to his line. Not that they were lacking, just maybe not on the same level.

And I think the fact that Blake became a great hockey coach should point to him being a smart player. How many one-dimensional wingers ever became great coaches?
 

BraveCanadian

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Best defensive defenseman on an offensive-minded dynasty, and a core member of the team and leadership group. Selected to play in seven all-star games.

That is all true but I immediately suspect his stats must not be all that impressive when overpass is using arguments like this... ;)

In the 1983 and 1984 Stanley Cup finals, Mike Bossy scored 2 goals in 9 games. Sounds like Kevin Lowe could play with him...

Ack. Terrible argument.

He did have 6 points in those two series and they were both short -- a total of 9 games.

By contrast the greatest offensive force in NHL history, Gretzky, playing on an offensive-minded dynasty - and one that was on the upswing instead of the Isles downswing - scored 10 points in the two series.

Oh, and Gretzky had 0 goals until the final two games.


Jim Schoenfeld
Vladimir Knstantinov
Bob Baun
Ulf Samuelsson
Herb Gardiner
Mike Grant
Harvey Pulford
Lionel Hitchman
Ott Heller
Si Griffis

Kevin Lowe will do fine.

Agree with you here that I'd take Lowe over some of these guys.

As I said before I don't think he necessarily belongs on a first pairing here but I get why you split your guys the way you did too.

He's definitely solid enough to not cost you imo.
 

Hawkey Town 18

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Best defensive defenseman on an offensive-minded dynasty, and a core member of the team and leadership group. Selected to play in seven all-star games.

In the 1983 and 1984 Stanley Cup finals, Mike Bossy scored 2 goals in 9 games. Sounds like Kevin Lowe could play with him...

The following players are on an ATD first pairing as the defensive half of a pairing:

Dallas Smith
Cy Wentworth
Jim Schoenfeld
Vladimir Knstantinov
Bob Baun
Ulf Samuelsson
Herb Gardiner
Mike Grant
Harvey Pulford
Lionel Hitchman
Ott Heller
Si Griffis

Kevin Lowe will do fine.

I would like to see more than just a list of guys who Lowe might be better than, but since it's really about the pairing as a whole, let's look at who these guys are partnered with and compare them to Lowe - MacInnis first.

Dallas Smith - Eddie Shore: I'll give you the edge here, Smith is awful on a first pairing

Lidstrom - Wentworth: Agree about Lowe>Wentworth, but with Lidstrom they are stronger defensively

Schoenfeld - Chelios: Not sure who's better between Lowe and Schoenfeld, but their pairing is clearly better defensively with Chelios.

Stevens - Konstantinov: See previous

Clancy - Baun: Baun is a tough player for me to rate, and I have a feeling Clancy is better defensively than MacInnis, but I'm gonna say this one is too close to call without more in-depth analysis.

Fetisov - Samuelsson: Lowe is definitely better than Samuelsson, but Fetisov is definitely better defensively than MacInnis. Let's also call this one too close to call.

JC Tremblay - Gardiner: I think Gardiner might be better than Lowe, but either way you guys get the edge here.

Kelly - Grant: Kelly is better defensively than MacInnis, and it's real tough to get a read on Mike Grant. Let's call this one even.

Gadsby - Pulford: MacInnis>Gadsby defensively, but I think Pulford gets the edge over Lowe. Too close to call.

Park - Hitchman: I'm pretty confident Hitchman is better defensively than Lowe (see my Ching Johnson bio for a nice quote on him) Park gets the edge over MacInnis too. They get the edge.

Pronger - Heller: Heller and Lowe are close, but Pronger over MacInnis defensively gives them the edge.

Pilote - Griffis: Tough call here on both. I'll give it to you to save argument.


Out of the 12 pairings discussed, I concluded that 5 were clearly better than yours defensively, 3 were worse, and 4 were too close to call. If I give you the 4 even ones, that still puts you in the bottom quarter of 1st pairings defensively, which supports what I've been saying.
 

Hawkey Town 18

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That Bossy quote is what I'm getting at. "He turned himself into a reliable backchecker." Good for him, but I wouldn't call a reliable backchecking winger a plus defensive player at this level. In the 1980s the bar wasn't exactly high for backchecking. I don't think he's a liability or anything, just not Toe Blake in this ar

Some other quotes on Blake from the bio:



That quote is from Blake's younger days. Shows the effort and work ethic was there from the beginning, and that's a big part of defensive play for a winger.



Blake's work ethic and positioning were also key to the success of the Punch Line when he was older. You don't see any quotes about Bossy's work ethic and positioning being a key to his line. Not that they were lacking, just maybe not on the same level.

And I think the fact that Blake became a great hockey coach should point to him being a smart player. How many one-dimensional wingers ever became great coaches?

The bolded was the least favorable of 3 quotes I provided. The other two were, "a very dependable backchecker" and "journalists wrote a lot about Bossy's defensive skills"

Meanwhile, you are making assumptions that players who become coaches were good defensive players, and providing quotes about Blake's work ethic and positioning. Sure, those things can be related to defensive play, but you do not have anything directly mentioning it, I have multiple quotes, and somehow I'm wrong for calling them EVEN defensively? That doesn't sound right to me.
 

Hawkey Town 18

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He did have 6 points in those two series and they were both short -- a total of 9 games.

By contrast the greatest offensive force in NHL history, Gretzky, playing on an offensive-minded dynasty - and one that was on the upswing instead of the Isles downswing - scored 10 points in the two series.

Oh, and Gretzky had 0 goals until the final two games.

Bossy actually missed game 1 in '83 due to tonsillitis, so he had 6pts in 8 games. Not that this makes a huge difference, just something I remembered reading.
 

Sturminator

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That Bossy quote is what I'm getting at. "He turned himself into a reliable backchecker." Good for him, but I wouldn't call a reliable backchecking winger a plus defensive player at this level. In the 1980s the bar wasn't exactly high for backchecking.

I guess I should comment on Mike Bossy, as I watched his whole career. I've actually said in the past here that I thought Bossy's all-around game was somewhat underrated, but that was mostly in response to people who seemed to think he was nothing but a pure shooter. He definitely could pass and stickhandle very well, and he developed his defense to the point that he was reliable. Considering his defensive weakness early in his career, I don't think that makes Boss a plus defensively in the ATD, but rather neutral, which is quite ok, and considerably better than he has been viewed by some people in the past. Comparing him to offensive wingers who are on some level his peers, Bossy is definitely better defensively than a guy like Selanne, or whatnot. It is a compliment to an offensive player as good as Bossy to say that he is neutral defensively at this level, but that doesn't make him particularly good, either.
 

overpass

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The bolded was the least favorable of 3 quotes I provided. The other two were, "a very dependable backchecker" and "journalists wrote a lot about Bossy's defensive skills"

Meanwhile, you are making assumptions that players who become coaches were good defensive players, and providing quotes about Blake's work ethic and positioning. Sure, those things can be related to defensive play, but you do not have anything directly mentioning it, I have multiple quotes, and somehow I'm wrong for calling them EVEN defensively? That doesn't sound right to me.

Frankly I've had more trouble finding details about Blake's play than any other player of his era. His coaching career completely overshadowed his playing career, and even while he was playing the Old Lamplighter seemed to be taken somewhat for granted. I am sure of two things. Hard work seems to have been his defining characteristic from the beginning of his career, and at least in the second half of his career descriptions of him added "brainy" to his earlier characterization of "industrious". So there isn't enough there to call him a Selke winner or anything. More of a Dave Taylor or Steve Larmer type who also won a Hart trophy, a scoring title, and often finished among the scoring leaders.

I think his accomplishments as a coach, in the absence of other information, allow some reasonable assumptions. Great coaches, when they were former NHL players, tend to have been smart players who were good defensively. Al Arbour, Lester Patrick, Hap Day, Art Ross, etc. Even Glen Sather and Pat Quinn were defensively inclined NHL players. (Dick Irvin may have been an exception but I don't know enough about his playing career to comment.)
 

bluesfan94

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I found this here, not sure how reliable it is and I can't find the original article, but it mentions Blake's defense:
An excerpt from the Weekly Sports News of October 1948 by H.P. Zinck, presented this performance of Blake: “There was nothing at which he did not excel. He was a strong, fast skater; he could and did pick the corners with his shots; his passing left little to be desired; he was a past-master at both fore and back checking; his services were in demand when his team had the odd-man advantage and he was often pressed into service when his team was short-handed.“

I'll keep digging for more quotes regarding Blake's defense
 

overpass

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In games in which Chicago can dictate the line matchups, I think we will be able to generate a clear advantage up front. This is how I believe Day would handle it...

Switch Gilmour and Fredrickson, and have:
Thompson - Gilmour - Nevin vs. Blake - Lach - Gaborik.

We would have two strong defensive players on their two best...Gilmour on Lach, and Nevin (who was used to cover Bobby Hull) on Blake. Thompson is also a plus defensively (although not near the level of the other two), but his purpose is really to bring some offense to the line, so they are not one-dimensional. I believe that this line will be able to contain Ottawa's first line fairly well.

The payoff for Chicago comes when the second lines match up...

Dumart - Fredrickson - Bossy vs. Andreychuk - Cowley - Hossa

Dumart (who shadowed Gordie Howe in a 1953 playoff upset) has the size and defensive skill to neutralize Hossa, leaving the below-average Andreychuk as Cowley's main option. Dumart would not be on his own defensively either, because Fredrickson (who shutdown Howie Morenz in the 1925 playoffs) and Bossy are both pluses defensively. With the Ottawa line's only player with defensive skill, Hossa, on the opposite side of Bossy the Ottawa defensemen will get no help trying to contain him.


Overall, a fairly large edge to Chicago when they can get the matchups they want.

It's a lot easier to avoid a matchup than to get the exact matchup you want. A competent NHL coach can usually avoid a certain line matchup on the road. I don't really want my second line playing against Bossy's line all the time, and I don't think Hitch does either. Unless Day wants to start really chasing the matchup and making quick changes on the fly to get Bossy or Bossy's line out there - something I'm fine with, because it will keep Chicago's line to shorter shifts and keep them from getting in sync - I don't see Day getting that matchup regularly.

I found this here, not sure how reliable it is and I can't find the original article, but it mentions Blake's defense:


I'll keep digging for more quotes regarding Blake's defense

:handclap:

Added to bio!
 

Hawkey Town 18

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It's a lot easier to avoid a matchup than to get the exact matchup you want. A competent NHL coach can usually avoid a certain line matchup on the road. I don't really want my second line playing against Bossy's line all the time, and I don't think Hitch does either. Unless Day wants to start really chasing the matchup and making quick changes on the fly to get Bossy or Bossy's line out there - something I'm fine with, because it will keep Chicago's line to shorter shifts and keep them from getting in sync - I don't see Day getting that matchup regularly.

I can see your point here. I think it will happen sometimes, but not likely an all game long type of thing...I can see it being more of a situation where Bossy (but not Dumart) hops on in Nevin's place once in a while for a double shift when the matchup is there. If Bossy is too tired to go back with Dumart and Gilmour right away, Nevin can fill in for a shift to form a strong shutdown line.
 

Hawkey Town 18

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Bottom 2 Lines

G. Tremblay - I. Hlinka - J. MacLean vs. Brian Sutter - P. Watson - D. Taylor


Hlinka vs. Watson: A tough comparison here...IMO Hlinka is better offensively and Watson better defensively. I became a lot more impressed by Hlinka when I found out how bad his domestic league teams were. It appears that he really carried his team offensively, often being able to keep pace with the other Czech stars (Novy, Martinec, Nedomansky), despite being on a far inferior team. Hlinka stepping into the NHL at age 32 and being a 0.90 ppg player while helping his team reach the Stanley Cup Finals is another feather in his cap. I have this one as too close to call.


G. Tremblay > Brian Sutter: The AS placements of these two are similar:
Tremblay: 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Sutter: 4, 5, 5, 6, 6

When you factor in that Tremblay had much tougher competition with Hull and Mahovlich owning the top 2 spots, I think his record is a little more impressive. I think Tremblay is clearly more skilled and better defensively because of his speed, but Sutter has better physical play and longevity. I give the nod to Tremblay here, but it is close.


John MacLean < Dave Taylor: According to Sturm's weighted adjusted ES pts these two are very close: MacLean scored a 48.5 with Taylor getting 52.2. Considering Taylor got to play alongside Marcel Dionne who is light years ahead of anyone MacLean had as a teammate, and that the Devils were a more defensive team in general, I think these two are actually about even as far as ES offense is concerned. Both bring grit, but I think Taylor is the better defensive player, which gives him the small edge.

Overall: These two lines are very close...a lot will depend on what you think of the center comparison. I think Chicago's line is better offensively and Ottawa's is better defensively.


D. Hull - C. Conroy - R. Kesler vs. G. Mantha - P. Bergeron - K. Wharram

Conroy > Bergeron: This was discussed at length in the draft thread. We basically came to the conclusion that at their peaks Conroy and Bergeron were about equal, but Conroy has much better longevity after about 5 or 6 seasons.

Wharram > Hull: Wharram is better offensively, but not by as much as the numbers suggest because he played alongside Mikita. Hull is better defensively and physically, but not enough to make up for Wharram's offensive edge.

Kesler vs. Mantha: I think Kesler is the superior defensive player and brings better physical play. Mantha is better offensively and has more longevity. Tough call here with two players that are difficult to compare.

Overall I think Chicago's 4th line is better defensively and brings more grit and physical play that you would expect from a 4th line. Ottawa's is better offensively. This is the opposite of how it went with the 3rd lines which gives both teams good balance. This is another comparison that is very close.



Bottom 2 Lines are very close to even overall
 

Hawkey Town 18

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Defense

1st Pairing
C. Johnson - C. Brewer > A. MacInnis - K. Lowe

MacInnis is the best player on either pairing, but Lowe is the worst. MacInnis is an average #1, Johnson a high-end #2, Brewer an average #2, Lowe is a high-end #4. Ottawa will have better puckmoving, with MacInnis being an elite puckmover. Chicago is much better defensively, with both of their Dmen being arguably better defensively than Ottawa's. Chicago also has the only physically punishing player (Johnson).

2nd Pairing
A. Duncan - J. Crawford < D. Wilson - A. Ross

Wilson and Ross are both better than either of Chicago's Dmen. I have Wilson as a low-end #2, Ross as a high-end #3, Crawford as an average #3 and Duncan as a low-end #3. Again I think Chicago has the only Dman that is really physically punishing (Crawford).

3rd Pairing

P. Housley - A. Arbour > R. Regher - R. Stackhouse

Housley is probably the best #5 in the draft, and he is supported by the rock-solid defensive player that he needs with Arbour. Arbour and Regehr are very close, but the Housley edge over Stackhouse gives this one to Chicago fairly easily. Here Ottawa has the only Dman that is physically punishing (Regehr).


Looking at the Dmen individually...
Johnson < MacInnis
Brewer > Wilson
Crawford < Ross
Duncan = Lowe
Housley > Stackhouse
Arbour = Regehr


Overall
Chicago's D-corps is definitely better defensively while Ottawa's is definitely better offensively. Individually Ottawa appears to have a small edge, but Chicago has the edge on the top pairing which is the most important.

Key Factor: Al MacInnis is only an average #1 Dman and he is playing top pairing at ES, PP, and PK. At ES he is also playing with a weaker partner for a top pairing in Lowe. Can he handle all of this?
 

Hawkey Town 18

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Argument for Chicago

I'm not going to be around much the rest of the weekend, so I'm going to make an overall argument for Chicago now...

Why Chicago Will Win This Series
  • Better 1st Line and 1st Pairing
  • In a battle of 2 defensive teams, Chicago is better defensively
  • Big Coaching Edge
  • Mike Bossy will score: He is the most dangerous offensive player in the series and has the kind of linemates that he works with best...Ottawa has a top pairing that is in the bottom quarter of the draft defensively and does not have a LW that can play a shutdown role to help.
  • Ottawa's best skater, Al MacInnis, is being overused by playing top pairing on all 3 units and with a weaker partner at ES.
  • Jacques Plante's great puckhandling will help cover that weakness on Chicago's top D-pair.
  • Chicago's trapping style will make it difficult for Ottawa's blueline to generate offense.


2 Good Teams here...it's a shame one of us has to be out in the first round...I certainly didn't think that was going to happen before the matchups came out.
 

Hawkey Town 18

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Did Hap Day run a trap?

From my Day bio...

The London Free Press – May 9, 2003
A sound tactic but what a bore

Almost a half-century after Hap Day invented it, it crosses hockey lips that are either curled in disdain or pursed by pouting -- the trap.

Sounds like a deep pit with stakes at the bottom, and in a sense it is. It's driving a stake through the heart of more entertaining hockey.

Day, a Toronto Maple Leafs coach, came up with the neutral-zone "wall" to put the brakes on the Montreal Canadiens' firewagon back in the 1950s. Nowadays, everyone uses it in some form or another, and the result has been a Stanley Cup playoff spring of blunted offences.
 

Sturminator

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Hmmm...that is a pretty unreliable source, especially considering the date and the fact that they are almost certainly mistaken about their central claim, which is that Day invented the trap. Kitty-bar-the-door was the original trap, most likely pioneered by Art Ross and/or Pete Green, and it precedes Day's playing career, nevermind his coaching career. Day may or may not have run a trap, but I doubt the London (Ontario, I know) sportswriter who penned that article ten years ago really has much of a clue.
 

Hawkey Town 18

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Hmmm...that is a pretty unreliable source, especially considering the date and the fact that they are almost certainly mistaken about their central claim, which is that Day invented the trap. Kitty-bar-the-door was the original trap, most likely pioneered by Art Ross and/or Pete Green, and it precedes Day's playing career, nevermind his coaching career. Day may or may not have run a trap, but I doubt the London (Ontario, I know) sportswriter who penned that article ten years ago really has much of a clue.

I definitely agree that he didn't invent it, but I think the fact that they have a specific name for it, "the wall," gives it some credence.
 

Sturminator

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I should add that the contemporary evidence you found of Day assigning a shadow to Maurice Richard doesn't seem to jive with the idea of playing a trap. Shadowing and trapping have little to do with one another, and those weren't actually terribly deep Montreal teams. Just shadowing the Rocket would make more sense.
 
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Sturminator

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I definitely agree that he didn't invent it, but I think the fact that they have a specific name for it, "the wall," gives it some credence.

Possibly. It's hard to say, though I agree with you that the specificity of the claim lends it some credence. Day's obvious tendency to spread his defensive players around throughout his lines also suggests that he may have preferred some kind of trapping system, as one needs at least one strong defensive forward on every line to run a trap. I've never seen any contemporary document which hints at any kind of trapping from those Leafs teams, but I'm no expert on that period of hockey.
 

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