Red Fisher Conference Prelim Round - Kenora Thistles vs Guelph Platers

Hawkey Town 18

Registered User
Jun 29, 2009
8,261
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Chicago, IL
Here you go...

Adjusted ES Pts
Hodge: 100, 84, 74, 59, 57, 50, 48, 40, 36, 34, 4
Nash: 67, 63, 56, 50, 46, 46, 41, 39, 31


I'm sure you guys know this, but just in case...this does not take team situation into account.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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Aug 28, 2006
52,271
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Brooklyn
That doesn't necessarily mean he cared about the actual face-off.
I would assume that putting specific players in to win face-offs means a coach cares about them, but you can nitpick semantics if you want.

I think you are being ridiculously hard on all non-NHL coaches.

Seriously? Are you forgetting how much praise I lavished on Tommy Sandlin when he was drafted in MLD2012 (at least after he was profiled - had no idea who he was before) or Jan Starsi when he was drafted in AAA2012? I'm the one who (for better or worse) had Jaroslav Pitner as my head coach in ATD2011. But I guess because I don't just assume that Soviet coaches will coach a North American style because their ATD GM wants them to, I'm being ridiculously hard on all non-NHL coaches.
 

Dreakmur

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Mar 25, 2008
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Orillia, Ontario
I would assume that putting specific players in to win face-offs means a coach cares about them, but you can nitpick semantics if you want.

It may not be about the face-off at all. He may want defensive players on the ice after the face-off.

But I guess because I don't just assume that Soviet coaches will coach a North American style because their ATD GM wants them to, I'm being ridiculously hard on all non-NHL coaches.

Just the fact that you think not coaching a certain style is a weakness is being ridiculously hard coaches.

Why does everyone think the coaches need to coach a North American style? Who says that's the best way to coach in this draft?
 

TheDevilMadeMe

Registered User
Aug 28, 2006
52,271
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Brooklyn
Just the fact that you think not coaching a certain style is a weakness is being ridiculously hard coaches.

Well, if that's what you think I think, you can step down from the ledge. I don't think that any style is the right one, but I do think that a coach who coached a certain style in real life will coach something at least similar to it here. You don't draft Glen Sather and expect him to play lock-down defense, you don't draft Jacques Lemaire and expect him to let his scorers be creative, you don't draft Tikhonov (a man who rolled 5-man units like some North American coaches roll 4 lines) and expect him to put a lot of emphasis on line matching.
 
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BraveCanadian

Registered User
Jun 30, 2010
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If you guys don't get on topic I am going to tell a mod.

;)

Oh darn I guess you did talk about Tikhonov a little there.
 

papershoes

Registered User
Dec 28, 2007
1,825
131
Kenora, Ontario
Sorry for not commenting sooner, been a very hectic couple weeks...

First off, best of luck to BraveCanadian - this edition of the Guelph Platers is a solid team, and I wish I had more time to dedicate towards researching them and discussing.

I like the way you broke down the match-ups so, i'll try to follow your lead...

Preliminary thoughts before I get into player details...
Coaching

We have a definite advantage here with Shero vs. Tikhonov, imo.

Having the KLM line and some other players who showed they could work in that autocratic or highly disciplined coaching system is good.. but I'm not sure everyone is going to buy into what Tikhonov is selling. Especially without fear as a motivation.

Tikhonov has definite strengths too.. especially tactically, but I feel that Shero is at least a match for him in that department.

This is even before considering Harry Sinden and Ken Hodge having apparently clashed.

While I think you have an advantage with Shero, I don't think the gap is as large as you are indicating. Similar to Tikhonov, Shero is a great coach and a great tactician. The difference, and a strength for Shero, is that he was great motivator without being ruthless. However, in my opinion, this rendition of the Thistles are fairly well-suited for Tikhonov's coaching. And, for those that may not be, Sinden provides support (as Schultz described in the assassination thread)

As for Hodge / Sinden - there certainly may have been some ill feelings but, its not as if it was at the Mahovlich / Imlach level. Besides, Sinden is an assistant coach in this case thus, he's not controlling Hodge's ice-time by any means so, I feel as though their likelihood of clashing is more reduced then if Sinden was head-coach.

Goaltending

We have a definite advantage here as well. Tretiak is considered top 10 of all time by most people here -- in the recent HOH Top 40 Goaltenders project, Tretiak was 8th and Hap Holmes 30th.

Agreed.

I'm a Holmes fan and, feel as though he is slightly undervalued around here (though he's still in the bottom tier of starters, his playoff record of four cups with four teams is nice) but, Tretiak is an awesome goalie.

On a side note, I recently picked up the Tretiak biography at a local used bookstore and am excited to crack it open...
 

papershoes

Registered User
Dec 28, 2007
1,825
131
Kenora, Ontario

Kharlamov - Hawerchuk - Hodge

vs

Nash - Francis - Jagr


Kharlamov vs Nash: Kharlamov is hard to peg since the legend is greater than the actual evidence. Interestingly people also feel that Nash is overhyped. That being said, it is safe to say that Kharlamov trounces Rick Nash in hockey history. Nash is on the first line here simply for his size, skating, puck possession and shot.

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Hawerchuk vs Francis: This one is interesting but in the end an easy win for us. Francis outproduced Hawerchuk, produced longer than Hawerchuk, and was better defensively -- although Dale was still pretty decent when called upon to play that role like in the CC '87.

The boo birds here will say Francis benefited disproportionately while playing with Jagr and discount some of that offense.

Lets have a look:

Hawerchuk (Top 10 Adjusted seasons)
103, 101, 86, 85, 82, 81, 80, 79, 78, 77 = 85.2 pts/season

Francis (Top 10 Adjusted seasons)
115, 102, 100, 94, 88, 85, 84, 80, 79, 79 = ~ 90.6 pts/season

Now, lets completely discount Francis' top three seasons that people always question:

Francis (Top 4-13 Adjusted seasons)
94,88,85,84,80,79,79,78,73,69 = ~80.9 pts/season

So even completely removing Francis' three best seasons he is within about 4 adjusted points per season of Hawerchuk's peak offense.

I think this decisively demonstrates that Francis is a better career value offensively than Dale Hawerchuk if we give any credit to Francis for his 3 best seasons.

Francis' intangibles are also better.

----------


Hodge vs Jagr: Here is we return the favour. Jagr trounces Hodge by a country mile. Hodge is a decent scorer and physical presence but he doesn't have Esposito and Orr on his team here (or even a reasonable facsimile) and Jagr is Jagr.

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I feel pretty confident that our first line is better overall than our opponents.

I like your comparison but, I'm going to compare based on roles rather then position...

Kharlamov vs. Jagr

No doubt Jagr is the best offensive player in this series. I've always hated him (for whatever reason) but, he's an impact player and an offensive force. He's easily the player Kenora needs to key on in this series. That said, I don't think the gap between him and Kharlamov is huge. Kharlamov may not be as good as his "legend" or reputation but, he was certainly very good for the Soviets and, and impact player on their teams.

Hawerchuk vs. Francis

I think this comparison is close, and certainly no easy win (though I have no qualms giving a slight edge to Francis). You're right, Hawerchuk showed that he could play defence when called upon, and was much better in his later years, but Francis certainly has an edge (even without his Selke). That said, Hawerchuk has a better Hart voting record, a 2nd all star team, and a comparable all-star voting record.

Hodge vs. Nash

I understand why Nash is on the first line, and think he's a good fit there, however, I have to give the edge to Hodge on this one (even if you want to remove some points for Sinden's presence). As erratic as his points totals seem to be, Hodge has two First Team All-Stars, three top-5 placements in goals and points, and two top-5 placements in assists. Nash only has two top-5 (with one top) placement in goals.

Advantage: Guelph
 

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