Reaves trade comes full circle. Pens choose not to sign Zachary Lauzon

[Empoleon8771]

Nah it was always a moronic pick. You don't take defenseman with zero puck skills in the 2nd round. This guy couldn't even score at the OHL level, no way that was gonna translate unless he had god tier skating and physical tools to make up for that, and by all accounts he didn't.

Neither of these are true. We're talking about Lauzon here, not Hall. To say Lauzon had zero puck skills is just false. He even showed some puck skills in the rookie camp and rookie camp in 2017, I remember people here were noting how mature he played the game when they say him. His career was just ruined with injuries.

Lauzon's junior career prior to being drafted is similar to Scott Harrington's junior career prior to being drafted. Harrington was also a 2nd rounder in 2011 and has become a decent bottom pair defenseman in the NHL at this point. Lauzon is just what Harrington would have become had he gotten smacked with injuries.

 

[Peat]

Neither of these are true. We're talking about Lauzon here, not Hall. To say Lauzon had zero puck skills is just false. He even showed some puck skills in the rookie camp and rookie camp in 2017, I remember people here were noting how mature he played the game when they say him. His career was just ruined with injuries.

The first half of the bolded is definitely challengeable.

The latter half... I was going to say it was true, but then I got curious and looked at the production in context. A .33 ppg in the Q at that age for a dman isn't awful, but neither is it usually in "use a draft pick territory". Especially not that high. That said, a fair number of the guys around that mark did increase their production substantially in following seasons; maybe Lauzon would have too. There's no definite judgment possible.

 

[ncm7772]

Didn’t realize he had those concussion issues. Too bad. Hopefully he has a full recovery eventually.

 

[Pens x]

A really bad trade is now officially just absolutely awful.

I guess the Pens are as good at drafting as they are at signing free agents.

Pathetic trade at the time and even worse today. Sundqvist would have been 8th on the Pens in scoring as well. We wouldn’t have to sign 40+ year olds if we still had him.

JR doesn’t get enough criticism for this.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The gift that keeps on giving.

 

[Pancakes]

Neither of these are true. We're talking about Lauzon here, not Hall. To say Lauzon had zero puck skills is just false. He even showed some puck skills in the rookie camp and rookie camp in 2017, I remember people here were noting how mature he played the game when they say him. His career was just ruined with injuries.

Lauzon's junior career prior to being drafted is similar to Scott Harrington's junior career prior to being drafted. Harrington was also a 2nd rounder in 2011 and has become a decent bottom pair defenseman in the NHL at this point. Lauzon is just what Harrington would have become had he gotten smacked with injuries.

Harrington was also a stupid pick. You don't take defensemen with limited offensive upside in the 2nd round. If you're going to take someone like Lauzon or Harrington take them in the 3rd-7th rounds.

First and Second round picks should be reserved for players that have the potential to be top 4 dmen or top 6 forwards.

Like what was Lauzon's ceiling going to be? With his limited offensive skills the best you might hope for with him is someone like Brooks Orpik. And that was the best case. Orpik was a top 4 dman in his prime but even then he was crappy at playing the type of hockey a skilled team would want to play. We regularly complained about his inability to move the puck to Crosby and Malkin.

The low end NHL potential for Lauzon would have been someone like Harrington. Why waste a high pick on that type of player?

 

[Pancakes]

Yeah, it was so dumb.

That being said overall Rutherford’s drafting seems to at least be in earnest outside of the 2017 draft.

I don't mind JR's drafting for the most part. Very interested to see what type of player he spends this year's first on. I hope it's not some big idiot with low skills.

 

[Peat]

Harrington was also a stupid pick. You don't take defensemen with limited offensive upside in the 2nd round. If you're going to take someone like Lauzon or Harrington take them in the 3rd-7th rounds.

First and Second round picks should be reserved for players that have the potential to be top 4 dmen or top 6 forwards.

Like what was Lauzon's ceiling going to be? With his limited offensive skills the best you might hope for with him is someone like Brooks Orpik. And that was the best case. Orpik was a top 4 dman in his prime but even then he was crappy at playing the type of hockey a skilled team would want to play. We regularly complained about his inability to move the puck to Crosby and Malkin.

The low end NHL potential for Lauzon would have been someone like Harrington. Why waste a high pick on that type of player?

Given that Jesse Marshall's immediate comparable for Lauzon was Dumo, I'm going to say his ceiling was Dumo.

And yes, I know, I know, numbers. Again, Marshall said it was probably more an environment thing for Lauzon, and that he had a good pass. Maybe he'd have progressed and we'd have seen everything come to pass as Jesse predicted. Maybe he'd have bombed. We'll probably never know thanks to those injuries.

But what we do know is that the people who actually watched him thought he had the potential to be a top 4 dman and that he had enough offensive skills to be that guy. And while I can understand some of the skepticism and annoyance at the pick and the likelihood of it working, we're reaching realms of either massive revisionism or people trusting their theoretical analyses over the guys actually watching them. Neither makes sense to me.

 

[wej20]

Harrington was also a stupid pick. You don't take defensemen with limited offensive upside in the 2nd round. If you're going to take someone like Lauzon or Harrington take them in the 3rd-7th rounds.

First and Second round picks should be reserved for players that have the potential to be top 4 dmen or top 6 forwards.

Like what was Lauzon's ceiling going to be? With his limited offensive skills the best you might hope for with him is someone like Brooks Orpik. And that was the best case. Orpik was a top 4 dman in his prime but even then he was crappy at playing the type of hockey a skilled team would want to play. We regularly complained about his inability to move the puck to Crosby and Malkin.

The low end NHL potential for Lauzon would have been someone like Harrington. Why waste a high pick on that type of player?

Getting an Orpik level player from any pick that isn't top 10 is a huge success.

 

[SouthGeorge]

That's half circle. We traded Reaves for Brassard who was then traded for Bjug and McCann who we all really like. I'm not completely mad at it at yet.

 

[Pens x]

That's half circle. We traded Reaves for Brassard who was then traded for Bjug and McCann who we all really like. I'm not completely mad at it at yet.

People still like Bjug? He’s overpaid and a very poor man’s Jordan Staal.

 

[SouthGeorge]

People still like Bjug? He’s overpaid and a very poor man’s Jordan Staal.

Everybody liked them heading into the playoffs. I don't know if that magically stops because they didn't win it all.

 

[domaug]

People still like Bjug? He’s overpaid and a very poor man’s Jordan Staal.

yes, i do. tally me under "Pens fans who like Nick Bjugstad".

i'm not ready to just dump him for nothing like a large contingent of Pens fans are. i want to see what he can do next year with the Pens before i entertain trading him away. i really don't think he was that bad.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

People still like Bjug? He’s overpaid and a very poor man’s Jordan Staal.

He has been very good for us since being acquired. No reason to dislike him at all... so far.

 

[madinsomniac]

yes, i do. tally me under "Pens fans who like Nick Bjugstad".

i'm not ready to just dump him for nothing like a large contingent of Pens fans are. i want to see what he can do next year with the Pens before i entertain trading him away. i really don't think he was that bad.

Same here. I think he has a chance to be really good for us at winger or 3c ... and i think people don’t understand the inflation of cap and correlation to contracts here... rather than listing it in dollars, these should be written as % of cap hit and there should be a list of historical correlation of average cap hit to general position and production so people can grasp over and underpaid contracts better....

I swear people will complain that a guy making the minimum is overpriced at times... its like they have cap numbers from a decade ago hardwired to their brains

 

[Pens x]

Same here. I think he has a chance to be really good for us at winger or 3c ... and i think people don’t understand the inflation of cap and correlation to contracts here... rather than listing it in dollars, these should be written as % of cap hit and there should be a list of historical correlation of average cap hit to general position and production so people can grasp over and underpaid contracts better....

I swear people will complain that a guy making the minimum is overpriced at times... its like they have cap numbers from a decade ago hardwired to their brains

High 20’s/Low 30’s shouldn’t cost $4.1 million AAV, sorry. It’s not just about points for me, he’s slow and not physical at all. It’s almost like he’s a rookie and needs to fill out his body to become more physical except he’s almost 27 years old.

 

[Peat]

Bjugstad was the 143rd highest paid forward last season. His pace for us would have made him the 157th best scorer on ppg among forwards on standard contracts. The difference between his pace and 143rd would equal a bit under 3 points over a full season.

I wouldn't call that difference overpaid, particularly not on a guy whose main purpose was shutdown centre.

 

[Gurglesons]

High 20’s/Low 30’s shouldn’t cost $4.1 million AAV, sorry. It’s not just about points for me, he’s slow and not physical at all. It’s almost like he’s a rookie and needs to fill out his body to become more physical except he’s almost 27 years old.

High 20s and low 30s is exactly what 4 mil will get you.

It is why I laughed when people said Bonino would be overpaid at 4x4.

 

[Pancakes]

But what we do know is that the people who actually watched him thought he had the potential to be a top 4 dman and that he had enough offensive skills to be that guy. And while I can understand some of the skepticism and annoyance at the pick and the likelihood of it working, we're reaching realms of either massive revisionism or people trusting their theoretical analyses over the guys actually watching them. Neither makes sense to me.

Dumoulin scored in college while Lauzon couldn't even score in the QMJHL. Appealing to authority also isn't a good way to build your argument. Should JR be forgiven for signing Jack Johnson since he has more resources and eye tests to rely on than me? JR's opinion should be more informed than mine, right? So why was JR so catastrophically wrong then when me and everyone in the analytics community maligned him for that move?

I don't object to taking players like Lauzon. I object to taking them with high picks.

Getting an Orpik level player from any pick that isn't top 10 is a huge success.

Sure, but why shoot for Brooks Orpik with a top two rounds pick when you could shoot for Kris Letang or Jake Guentzel instead?

And even if you like Lauzon that much why spring on him so early? Surely a guy like him will be available still a round later. It's not like he was a hot asset that everyone was after that I can recall. If memory serves this was considered an off board pick.

 

[Freeptop]

Nah it was always a moronic pick. You don't take defenseman with zero puck skills in the 2nd round. This guy couldn't even score at the OHL level, no way that was gonna translate unless he had god tier skating and physical tools to make up for that, and by all accounts he didn't.

To be fair, most players have difficulty scoring in the OHL when they don't play in that league. (Lauzon played in the QMJHL - perhaps you were thinking of Connor Hall, who was drafted the year before?)

Who is the scout responsible for that "region" anyways? Curious about that dude(s) success rate.

It's hard to tell, because the Pens don't list it on their website, but you can sometimes find references in articles that give a hint. For the Pens, I have Luc Gauthier as being based in Quebec, so he's most likely the one who would have scouted Lauzon, but I'm not sure, because I only have locations for about half the scouting staff. Gauthier's been with the team since '08, but I don't have any record of him being listed as being responsible for any particular players. The list of players drafted from the QMJHL since he started isn't terribly long though: Despres, Petersen, Zlobin, Sprong and Lauzon.

 

[Pancakes]

To be fair, most players have difficulty scoring in the OHL when they don't play in that league. (Lauzon played in the QMJHL - perhaps you were thinking of Connor Hall, who was drafted the year before?)



It's hard to tell, because the Pens don't list it on their website, but you can sometimes find references in articles that give a hint. For the Pens, I have Luc Gauthier as being based in Quebec, so he's most likely the one who would have scouted Lauzon, but I'm not sure, because I only have locations for about half the scouting staff. Gauthier's been with the team since '08, but I don't have any record of him being listed as being responsible for any particular players. The list of players drafted from the QMJHL since he started isn't terribly long though: Despres, Petersen, Zlobin, Sprong and Lauzon.

Typo, but thanks for pointing it out. I'll edit it now.

In any case, the point remains. He couldn't score much in junior hockey. That's not usually a good trend for NHL success.

 

[Freeptop]

Typo, but thanks for pointing it out. I'll edit it now.

In any case, the point remains. He couldn't score much in junior hockey. That's not usually a good trend for NHL success.

I don't disagree with the point, I just couldn't resist! I really should have put in a though, to make it clear.

 

[UnrealMachine]

I'm just glad that the Devils turned down our trade proposal to select Lauzon first overall!1 He was a steal in the 2nd round.2

..................................
{awkward pause}
..................................

In all seriousness I hope he is healthy and able to resume his hockey career.

1. http://members.tripod.com/RutherfordRumors
2. @BillGuerintees Twitter Account

 

[wej20]

Sure, but why shoot for Brooks Orpik with a top two rounds pick when you could shoot for Kris Letang or Jake Guentzel instead?

And even if you like Lauzon that much why spring on him so early? Surely a guy like him will be available still a round later. It's not like he was a hot asset that everyone was after that I can recall. If memory serves this was considered an off board pick.

Brooks Orpik has played a thousand games, a lot of those as a top 4 defenseman. He certainly had weaknesses to his game but he's a hell of a pick considering even a late 1st doesn't guarantee you a top 4 d/ top 9 forward.

Arguably they could have waited for him but if he's your guy then he's your guy. Have no idea where other teams boards had him (all the rankings had him in the 4th) but if you really like him and think he has the upside then you make the pick. That being said I'd be interested to see analysis on how "reach" picks turn out.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Harrington was also a stupid pick. You don't take defensemen with limited offensive upside in the 2nd round. If you're going to take someone like Lauzon or Harrington take them in the 3rd-7th rounds.

First and Second round picks should be reserved for players that have the potential to be top 4 dmen or top 6 forwards.

Like what was Lauzon's ceiling going to be? With his limited offensive skills the best you might hope for with him is someone like Brooks Orpik. And that was the best case. Orpik was a top 4 dman in his prime but even then he was crappy at playing the type of hockey a skilled team would want to play. We regularly complained about his inability to move the puck to Crosby and Malkin.

The low end NHL potential for Lauzon would have been someone like Harrington. Why waste a high pick on that type of player?

Wait, are we talking about the same Scott Harrington a ton of people (I hated the pick) were super high on and then were mad when he was moved?

He put up 17pts in 73 games for the Jackets last season and has been a regular in the NHL the last 2yrs. Harrington has actually been a solid depth defenseman for the Jackets, I was actually surprised to see that out of him or even Morrow who looked like he finally found a home in Winnipeg.

He put up the same ppg pace as Olli Maatta.


lol