Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by VictorLustig, Dec 17, 2016.
Depending who's picking 2nd, I could see him going as high as that.
Numbers & viewings is all we have. The viewings and the numbers say he's a comp to Brannstrom, so unless the class is down overall, don't see him that highly. YMMV.
What is so similar to Brannstrom? I think they are different players. Brannstrom is more of a puck moving defenseman, Boqvist more of an offensive defenseman.
Wait, what? Isn't that the same thing? A defenseman with the puck on his stick, creating chances? Or does the former just let go of the puck at the red line? Or is it that an offensive defenseman is somebody who is so substandard in his own end he has to make up for it.
All I am saying isBoqvist has a tremendous willingness to jump in to play, but the only place he's pulling it off is in J20 where he does everything but drive the zamboni. All I see is warning signs. Hasn't earned ice time in 2 men's leagues, didn't earn ice time at 5 nations, is never going to get that big, isn't producing enough to demonstrate elite skill to make up for the size disadvantage.
But asides from that, he's the greatest thing since sliced bread.
No, its a different thing.
A puck moving defenseman is someone who makes quick decisions in their own zone to get the puck going up the ice. They can transport the puck up and out of the zone, as well. Where they excel most is with getting the puck from one zone to the next to let the real offensive playmakers create plays. Brannstrom is really solid in his own end, makes good, decisions with the puck and is a very good skater who can carry the puck into the zone. He's not anywhere near the dangler that Boqvist is. He does have some offense in his game, maybe an above average amount, but he's not anywhere near as creative of a hockey player as Boqvist who is a point producer and chance creator. Boqvist's primary contributions will be in point production and chance creation. He can also move the puck, he can defend, but those are secondary areas of contribution for him.
Just about no one pulls off Boqvist's style of play at his age in a men's league, let alone the SHL. Dahlin can play an offensive game in that league, but Dahlin is also a generational prospect. Boqvist's also very young for this draft. And if you are going to make a big deal about points at this 5 Nations tournament, would you make a big deal in the opposite direction about his points at the Hlinka? Some tournaments, teammates finish chances. Other tournaments, they don't. Why are the points a bigger determinant factor in his play than his shift to shift game? I also think Boqvist is more solid defensively than his reputation. He plays a very risky offensive game, but he defends well without the puck.
What? How could you possibly think that Brännström and Boqvist lare comparable by your "viewings"? I call BS on this one
He has ridiculous upside if everything clicks, but at this point he would scare me in the top 5. Now, bad teams are generally desperate for D, so it will be interesting how it plays out. I would think all of the high-profile wingers are safer while still having high-upside in Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, and Wahlstrom. Sorting out that group of D behind them is something else. I think I like Dobson the most due to the safety but remaining high upside, followed by Boqvist, Hughes, and Bouchard in that order. While, I can understand taking him at 2 if you legitimately believe he's the next Erik Karlsson, but, personally, I think that is way more risk than I would be comfortable with.
If he could show more in either the Allsvenskan or SHL by the end of the year I might be convinced of a top 5 standing. And, yes, I am aware Karlsson was almost exclusively in J-20 in his draft year. But, he was drafted 15th, and can be considered a bit of an outlier, in the opposite corner you have someone like Lars Jonsson (highest drafted guy to primarily play J-20 in recent years). Most of the impact Swedish defenders that were taken high were firmly in the SHL or Allsvenskan at 17 (Larsson, Hedman, and OEL). H. Lindholm split time between the SHL and J-20 (20 games to 27). Now, you obviously also have cases of late-round gems like Klingberg who weren't even firm J-20 players at that age.
He probably has the widest range of any of the guys at the top of the draft (outside of possibly Denisenko). He could realistically go anywhere from 2 (unlikely) to 14 (unlikely). His sweet spot is probably 5 to 9.
How many people have him below 5? I've seen very few lists where he's not in the top 5.
His stock held primarily based on Hlinka. It will be interesting to see how his stock holds after a good but not great showing in Plymouth. Remember at this time last year, Liljegren was still top 5 in a bunch of places because people were reluctant to drop him heavily until closer to the U-18's. Just checking the TSN guys, FC and Hockey Prospect, the only one of those lists from a comparable time last year to have Liljegren out the top 3 was HockeyProspect.com who had him at 7.
Craig’s List: Patrick remains in the top spot despite injury - Article - TSN
Patrick has decided edge in TSN Hockey Mid-season Draft Ranking - Article - TSN
He's playing at a lower level and plays an atypical game which as pointed out is hard to transfer over to a men's league. That makes him fairly high-risk compared to the safety of some easier projections.
I completely agree with your entire post regarding Boqvist. I like Boqvist a lot, but think he is a tremendous risk in the top 5, when you have high floor with high ceiling guys available. I would grab him for sure in that 7-10 range though.
Just to chime in on this, because back then we felt like alone on an island for our early Liljegren rankings. We had Liljegren 3rd in Europe behind both Hischier and Pettersson already back in September 2016 with top 7 overall value. In January we valued him as a top 10 value pick, behind Elias Pettersson who was alone with top 5 value (Hischier left for NA).
We haven't had Adam Boqvist as a top 5 overall pick on our board going back to last year, highest he's been was top 15 after Hlinka (current rank was made public in our Winter Release thread). That's not to say there is no possible way he will be that good, but in our eyes it's far from a sure thing.
The difference between Boqvist and Liljegren is that by the end of last year people really soured on Liljegren's upside, in that they felt he didn't have the offensive IQ to be a top PPQB. I don't think people feel that way about Boqvist (yet), even though the production isn't there. Both are high risk, but Boqvist is percieved to have that boom factor because of superior skill and IQ.
I think we are also seeing that Liljegren was under-drafted.
People soured on him because he hardly progressed in a full season and he was coming off an illness. The knock was more on him skating into crowds and having untimely turnovers than his ability to run a PP which he could do in the SHL at 16.
Either way, I don’t want to continue to turn this into a Liljegren thread. I just used him as an example because of where his stock was at the same point last year.
How does Boqvist compare to the seemingly endless supply of smaller offensive D in this draft?
Quinn Hughes - appears to be having an excellent freshman season at Michigan
Ty Smith, Calen Addison, Ryan Merkley - all three are PPG in the CHL but other than Merkley's rankings dropping like a rock I haven't seen a whole lot written about their seasons
Wouldn’t be surprised to see GMs prefer the big Canadian RDs like Bouchard and Dobson over Boqvist. They have the size, the point totals and they play a lot of big minutes in places that are easily scoutable.
Boqvist looks significantly more dynamic then Liljegren does though, but obviously they have some similarities.
I’d take either over Boqvist
Id be anxious picking a boom or bust guy in the top-5. But his upside is just too high to pass on at the same, feeling abit conflicted tbh.
When was the last time we saw a defenseman like him picked in the top 10?
Cale Makar last year?
One thing that strikes me when comparing Boqvist with Liljegren and also with a lot of other offensively skilled D-men is that he playes with very high accuracy. While I´ve seen Liljegren do some risky moves and playes, it´s very rare to see Boqvist make a move or pass and fail. I can´t recall ever seen him lose the puck on the blue line causing a turnover. There are plenty of D-men that thrives on playing an easy game and do few mistakes. Boqvist do very few mistakes (with the puck) and constantly makes moves that requires a lot of technical skill.
What I would like to see from him when it comes to improvements is to play the game with higher intensity especially in defense. His coolness combined with lack of size can sometime make him a bit “out of the game” in defense. I would recommend him to look at Brannstrom and try to copy his game in d-zone.
Haven't been following Makar at all tbh, so wasn't aware he was a boom or bust kind of defenseman, but yeah looking into it seems like a decent comparable.
Of course Makar was a boom or bust. He was playing in a joke of a league that you cant accurately project what he will look against better QOC.
Did I say otherwise? I simply stated I haven't followed or paid much attention to Makar and acknowledgd it's a good comparable after looking into it abit.
Not the first time a player from the Junior A program is drafted high... They’re usually not any more boom or bust types than the Americans drafted out of high schools.