Rate the newbies

[daver]

Technically everything that happened until last night is history. I think we have a general idea of where the four greatest post 2005 lockout players (i.e. started their careers between 2005 and 2010) would rate:

Crosby (Top 10)
Ovechkin (Top 10 - 20)
Malkin (Top 40 - 60)
Kane (Top 75ish)

There are five players who are still in their peaks/primes that are having great 'front nines" to their careers.

Where would you rate them all-time based on their careers to date (i.e. where are they pacing all-time)?

McDavid (Top 10) - Clearly among the best of the rest all-time regardless of team playoff success.

Kucherov (Top 50) - He is pacing for another "among the best of his era" season to compliment a very strong playoff resume. A rich man's Kane.

MacKinnon (Top 50 - 75) - Injuries have kept from having that legacy type season (maybe this year) but it is clear he is one of the best of his era in both the regular season and the playoffs. Is he a Trottier/Sakic/Yzerman tier Centre?

Matthews (Top 20 -40) - His regular season goalscoring so far in his career puts him among the very best all-time. His playoff resume so far is left wanting which could "Dionne" him from getting into the Top 20.

Draisaitl (Top 60 - 100) - His regular season and playoff numbers place him as arguably the #2 forward of his era but his tie to McDavid is so strong it makes it hard to rank him.

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[bobholly39]

In order I'd go:

McDavid
Kucherov
Draisaitl
Matthews
MacKinnon

I thought it would be very easy to put them in order, but I actually hesitated greatly. This season Mack + Matthews are really having historic seasons, and I haven't yet decided if that pushes them past Draisaitl at #3 or now - so for now, I'll say no. I might revisit in the off-season.

McDavid at #1 and Kucherov at #2 feels pretty obvious though. The other 3 could still pass Kucherov, but he has a head start for sure.

As for all-time rankings - full disclosure, I think I do an ok job at ranking players all-time vs one another, but where I really struggle is ranking active players in the middle of their careers vs those with a full career. It's always tough to compare half careers to full careers, but I'll give it a shot....

Using out HOH top 100 list as a point of reference....

Jagr ranked 16th. Messier ranked 21st. I'd have McDavid today behind Jagr but ahead of Messier...so in the ~17-20th range (Ovechkin also jumps ahead from the 2018 list).

Forsberg ranked 51st and Malkin 52nd....I really like Kucherov as a comparable. If you include this year, his regular season resume is already ahead of Forsberg....no? And I think his playoffs might be too, or at least super close. So I'd rank Kucherov approx ~50th to 55th all-time let's say. Very close to Forsberg, whether just ahead or just behind.

Draisaitl....i'd rank him ahead of Selanne I think. Selanne has a huge longevity edge, but everythinig about Draisaitl is better...but he'd be behind Marcel Dionne. So maybe in the ~64-69th slot for Draisaitl.

Matthews...Brett Hull is an easy comparable. Hull ranked 80th (which I hate to refer to, since I thought he was massively underranked, I'd have had him in the 50s)....is Matthews already ahead of Hull? No I don't think so. So maybe ~80th-90th for Matthews? Matthews has been the most consistent of the 5 outside of McDavid for regular season, so bodes well for continued success.

As for MacKinnon...Fedorov and Thornton are good comparables...one with great playoffs, one with no playoffs. So maybe in that range of high ~80s/low ~90s.

 

[daver]

In order I'd go:

McDavid
Kucherov
Draisaitl
Matthews
MacKinnon

I thought it would be very easy to put them in order, but I actually hesitated greatly. This season Mack + Matthews are really having historic seasons, and I haven't yet decided if that pushes them past Draisaitl at #3 or now - so for now, I'll say no. I might revisit in the off-season.

McDavid at #1 and Kucherov at #2 feels pretty obvious though. The other 3 could still pass Kucherov, but he has a head start for sure.

As for all-time rankings - full disclosure, I think I do an ok job at ranking players all-time vs one another, but where I really struggle is ranking active players in the middle of their careers vs those with a full career. It's always tough to compare half careers to full careers, but I'll give it a shot....

Using out HOH top 100 list as a point of reference....

Jagr ranked 16th. Messier ranked 21st. I'd have McDavid today behind Jagr but ahead of Messier...so in the ~17-20th range (Ovechkin also jumps ahead from the 2018 list).

Forsberg ranked 51st and Malkin 52nd....I really like Kucherov as a comparable. If you include this year, his regular season resume is already ahead of Forsberg....no? And I think his playoffs might be too, or at least super close. So I'd rank Kucherov approx ~50th to 55th all-time let's say. Very close to Forsberg, whether just ahead or just behind.

Draisaitl....i'd rank him ahead of Selanne I think. Selanne has a huge longevity edge, but everythinig about Draisaitl is better...but he'd be behind Marcel Dionne. So maybe in the ~64-69th slot for Draisaitl.

Matthews...Brett Hull is an easy comparable. Hull ranked 80th (which I hate to refer to, since I thought he was massively underranked, I'd have had him in the 50s)....is Matthews already ahead of Hull? No I don't think so. So maybe ~80th-90th for Matthews? Matthews has been the most consistent of the 5 outside of McDavid for regular season, so bodes well for continued success.

As for MacKinnon...Fedorov and Thornton are good comparables...one with great playoffs, one with no playoffs. So maybe in that range of high ~80s/low ~90s.

I was looking for a "pacing" ranking.

I.e. after nine seasons/by age 27, McDavid would be rated #5 or # 6 all-time. Only the Big 4 are clearly ahead of him after their 9th season/by age 27.

 

[wetcoast]

Technically everything that happened until last night is history. I think we have a general idea of where the four greatest post 2005 lockout players (i.e. started their careers between 2005 and 2010) would rate:

Crosby (Top 10)
Ovechkin (Top 10 - 20)
Malkin (Top 40 - 60)
Kane (Top 75ish)

There are five players who are still in their peaks/primes that are having great 'front nines" to their careers.

Where would you rate them all-time based on their careers to date (i.e. where are they pacing all-time)?

McDavid (Top 10) - Clearly among the best of the rest all-time regardless of team playoff success.

Kucherov (Top 50) - He is pacing for another "among the best of his era" season to compliment a very strong playoff resume. A rich man's Kane.

MacKinnon (Top 50 - 75) - Injuries have kept from having that legacy type season (maybe this year) but it is clear he is one of the best of his era in both the regular season and the playoffs. Is he a Trottier/Sakic/Yzerman tier Centre?

Matthews (Top 20 -40) - His regular season goalscoring so far in his career puts him among the very best all-time. His playoff resume so far is left wanting which could "Dionne" him from getting into the Top 20.

Draisaitl (Top 60 - 100) - His regular season and playoff numbers place him as arguably the #2 forward of his era but his tie to McDavid is so strong it makes it hard to rank him.

The thing is in bold you are asking 2 different things and I have no idea where they will actually end up.

Where would you rate them all-time based on their careers to date (i.e. where are they pacing all-time)?

I was looking for a "pacing" ranking.

I.e. after nine seasons/by age 27, McDavid would be rated #5 or # 6 all-time. Only the Big 4 are clearly ahead of him after their 9th season/by age 27.

If anyone has the correct answer please call me I really need to know the winning tickets of the next lottery.

 

[wetcoast]

In order I'd go:

McDavid
Kucherov
Draisaitl
Matthews
MacKinnon

I'm really lazy and just going to piggyback off your detailed and well thought out post here and above is probably the current order I have them in, although Mack is probably higher than AM...right now but AM is the youngest guy in the group as well.

I thought it would be very easy to put them in order, but I actually hesitated greatly. This season Mack + Matthews are really having historic seasons, and I haven't yet decided if that pushes them past Draisaitl at #3 or now - so for now, I'll say no. I might revisit in the off-season.

I think Mack has pushed ahead of Draisaitl and he has been the captain of a SC winning team and that's probably the slight difference but it's a coin toss.

the playoff resume keeps AM 5th on this list for now but he aslo the youngest so he might end up 2nd on this list one day.

McDavid at #1 and Kucherov at #2 feels pretty obvious though. The other 3 could still pass Kucherov, but he has a head start for sure.

McDavid on this list as #1 is unanimous one would think and he has the possibility of ending up 2-4 all time if a lot goes his way, ie continues his prime for several more years and adds to his playoff resume.

Kuch is the oldest guy of the 5 and is having a killer season, making the playoffs and adding to that resume will help and how he ages also determines how hard it is for the other guys to climb past him.

As for all-time rankings - full disclosure, I think I do an ok job at ranking players all-time vs one another, but where I really struggle is ranking active players in the middle of their careers vs those with a full career. It's always tough to compare half careers to full careers, but I'll give it a shot....

This should be a hard ask for anyone and it's always tricky to evaluate and rank.

Using out HOH top 100 list as a point of reference....

Jagr ranked 16th. Messier ranked 21st. I'd have McDavid today behind Jagr but ahead of Messier...so in the ~17-20th range (Ovechkin also jumps ahead from the 2018 list).

That's fair but also conservative his fisrt 9 years out of the gate has to be top 5ish all time already and he's still going very strong.

Forsberg ranked 51st and Malkin 52nd....I really like Kucherov as a comparable. If you include this year, his regular season resume is already ahead of Forsberg....no? And I think his playoffs might be too, or at least super close. So I'd rank Kucherov approx ~50th to 55th all-time let's say. Very close to Forsberg, whether just ahead or just behind.

Not sure about this one, maybe closer to Dionne who is 60something range off the top of my head.

Draisaitl....i'd rank him ahead of Selanne I think. Selanne has a huge longevity edge, but everythinig about Draisaitl is better...but he'd be behind Marcel Dionne. So maybe in the ~64-69th slot for Draisaitl.

Sure that's fair but also seems a bit high too.

Matthews...Brett Hull is an easy comparable. Hull ranked 80th (which I hate to refer to, since I thought he was massively underranked, I'd have had him in the 50s)....is Matthews already ahead of Hull? No I don't think so. So maybe ~80th-90th for Matthews? Matthews has been the most consistent of the 5 outside of McDavid for regular season, so bodes well for continued success.

Fair enough here.

As for MacKinnon...Fedorov and Thornton are good comparables...one with great playoffs, one with no playoffs. So maybe in that range of high ~80s/low ~90s.

I think Mack is higher right now than AM and Draisaitl but I also don't think that he is in the 60s range yet either so maybe those 2 guys aren't that high quite yet.

All that being said all 5 guys are adding to their legacy this year and playoffs often solidifies or tanks a player momentum.

AM is the prime example here if the Leafs don't make it out the first round that's just a huge anchor the other 5 guys don't have.

Just as a thought exercise I wonder where these guys go in the ATD, which isn't an all time ranking but still an interesting consideration.

Had a quick peek and in the 24 ATD they ranked like this,

McDavid 16
Kuch 88
Mack 152
Matthews 241
Draisaitl 306

but wingers are more rare so there is that.

I'm surprised to see AM ahead of Draisaitl as well....

 

[jigglysquishy]

Had a quick peek and in the 24 ATD they ranked like this,

McDavid 16
Kuch 88
Mack 152
Matthews 241
Draisaitl 306

but wingers are more rare so there is that.

I'm surprised to see AM ahead of Draisaitl as well....

Defensive ability is really important in the ATD for 3rd or 4th line centres. The defensive gap between AM and Draisaitl is pretty drastic and they're ultimately playing a checking line role.

AM>Draisaitl in an ATD and Draisaitl >AM in a top 100 is pretty defensible.