OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: The Condemned of Altoona

[TNT87]

My prediction is they'll go 73-89.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

My prediction is 83-79, although there's a part of me that thinks predictions of <75 wins or >85 wins is probably a better bet, given how much volatility is built in across the lineup. I'll cut a relative middle ground, with some optimism thrown in, especially around Marte, who I think will emerge as a real impact player.

Trevor Williams and Chad Kuhl to start second, third games of Pirates season

Pirates have announced the rotation for the opening series. No real surprise, given that Taillon is already starting the home opener and Musgrove will be the fifth. Hurdle also confirmed that Glasnow and Brault will be in the pen, and apparently said something to the effect of Harrison and sometimes Dickerson leading off, with Frazier fitting in there too when he is playing. Apparently he said something about stacking lefties vs. RHP, which I guess would mean Frazier could step in for Harrison in those games? There are already a lot of regular lefties with Dickerson, Polanco, Moran, and Bell (as better from the left side).

I'm pretty curious about the lineup. I think the big call might be where to slot in Cervelli and Moran. My initial sense is that it might make some sense to have Cervelli sixth and Moran seventh, with that being fluid depending on what the guys at the top of the order do. But Moran is pretty slow, and if Cervelli can return to getting on base at an ok clip with a bit of power thrown in, I think that's a better way to start. Something lineL

Harrison
Dickerson
Marte
Bell
Polanco
Cervelli
Moran
Mercer

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

2001 Pittsburgh Pirates Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

That is what a 100 loss team looks like. I'd love to hear an argumemt as to how the current Bucs are anywhere near as bad as that team.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Luplow was sent down this morning along with pitchers who weren't going to make it (save maybe for Jones, but he had a pretty bad outing the other day).



Seems like this could be a precursor to the opening day lineup, but I'd definitely want to see Frazier in as DH. I don't think the Tigers have announced their opening rotation beyond Zimmerman, but their pitching is pretty weak, and so offense is certainly going to be the way to win this series. Based on how they've been ordering things in spring training, the matchups may be Nova vs. Zimmerman, Williams vs. Fulmer, and get this, Kuhl vs. Liriano.

If that holds, I'd imagine that Hurdle will roll out today's lineup but with Frazier hitting against the lefties, and the have Brentz/Osuna DH Sunday's game, with Freese starting for Moran and S-Rod starting over Polanco or Dickerson.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Glasnow looking totally dominant in relief - upper nineties on the edges of the zone with a fall off the table curveball. We have to see a good amount of repetition, but I've kept as close an eye on him as anyone this spring, and outside of the one start, basically all of the appearances have been like this. Last spring, he was like this a fair amount of the time, but he would also get himself into some dicey situations. He just looks a lot more in control, particularly with the way he uses the fastball to set things up. The command isn't precision perfect, but he's seemed to lock-in on the kind of ranges and zones where he can set up the other stuff, and then in particular what is helping is that the curveball is devastating most of the time, as opposed to maybe 10-20% of the time.

Edit: probably spoke a bit too soon, as Glasnow runs into a bit of trouble in his third inning. Just caught too much of the heart of the plate a few times, but didn't get tagged for too much damage. This is the kind of experience that may prove difficult to get outside of mop up duty, since in a closer game, you might guess the long relief goes more like 2 innings. Still, there's plenty to work with as we start the season, but it'll be interesting to see what kinds of actual situations they use him and Brault in.

Glasnow stays on for a fourth inning in the seventh and commands a strikeout, a one-pitch weakly hit groundout, and gives up a single. Overall nice to see - 6 Ks, mostly weak contact, mostly commanding the zone and being in control vs batters. Again, the really interesting thing will really be when he's pitching in a game with a one or two run lead, where there isn't much room for one or two mistakes. Searage was interviewed during this game and make the remark that Brault and Glasnow could still get situational work if long relief opportunities aren't really opening up, so really we'll just have to see. It does seem like they can get a lot of work for 2ish innings at a time while having certain starters avoid the times through the order penalty.

Edit #2: Looks like the Pirates are not going with Brentz:

Pirates put Bryce Brentz on waivers

This makes sense to me. Osuna has really been locked in, but with him having options, and all the talk of taking an extra pitcher, I wonder if this could speak to a more aggressive bullpen strategy to start the season? I'd prefer to see Osuna getting at-bats and also reps at 3B in AAA, so that he's a bit more primed for a depth role higher up the chain next year or later in the summer if Freese is moved, but there's no denying that he's absolutely crushed a lot of baseballs this spring. Still, I wonder if an extra bullpen arm would allow the team a bit of an avenue to use Glasnow/Brault a combined total of 3 times a week, to try and aggressively offset a times through the order penalty, but not totally tax the bullpen. In order for that to really work, I think you'd need to have them occasionally finish a game out entirely with four innings or something, which would mean that they are down for 4 days or so, during which Neversaukas or whoever would need to be able to chip in with some middle relief.

Keeping an extra arm could just be a flexibility move, but it's hard to see how it's necessary so early in the season.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Fun little tidbit I saw from the game today. Looks like they gave Bae a nibble of playing time, running and scoring for Mercer.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Lolo went ahead and had a successful straight steal of home as well. Kid is quick.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The bullpen situation is somewhat interesting. Have to wonder whether it's partly a product of certain pitchers not meeting expectations vs. wanting to explore some depth. Crick was up and down, but I think the control overall wasn't there, and they'd rather see if he can rein it in with more reps in AAA, and I think the situation is similar with Siegrist except with velocity. Sometimes he was fine, and the bread and butter pitches looked good, but his fastball was still a click or two too slow, which is what started getting him in so much trouble. However, it's also hard to get any kind of read on the radar gun from spring training. Several times while watching the game or clips, it was registering slower than the announcers were saying, and they made a point of noting it too.

I think there's probably an element of both. Smoker, Santana, and Neversaukas are battling for the temporary jobs in the pen, and one of them may go after a few weeks for Osuna. Or one or more of them could go for Osuna + Crick or Siegrist.

Smoker is the easy target for early scapegoat, but it's so hard to get any kind of read on spring training results, and I saw some ok signs from him. Santana has not impressed me, but he has more of a track record. Neversaukas I think has the most upside, so we'll see if he can stick.

It might be better to carry the extra depth in the bullpen for a little while. Whatever the case, if Glasnow or Brault aren't performing, the situation might go from an expected strength to a weakness. My expectation/hope is that Glasnow can be a really useful bridge type for 2 innings, with Brault being more of someone who is either doing mopup work in a blowout, or perhaps key situational work in a matchup earlier in the game. I trust the coaching staff with the bullpen decisions, especially with not just handing Crick a spot because of the trade (early on, I thought he was extremely wild, but then came to think he had enough control to be effective). Best case is that Siegrist will stick around, and we will have a small bit of bullpen depth.

I wouldn't say I'm worried about the bullpen, but I'll feel a lot more secure if I see Feliz turn in 4 or 5 dominant performances.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Pirates moves clarify opening-day roster

The quotes from Hurdle and Huntington actually get at the situation with a decent amount of clarity. Glasnow and Brault won't be used on back to back days, and they wanted extra options for depth and so that no one needed to be out there for more than one inning at a time. Siegrist's velocity isn't quite there, and Crick's performance wasn't where they wanted.

The brief comment on Osuna also makes me think that the 8-man bullpen might be a strategy for longer than just a week or two, whether Siegrist or Crick ends up replacing someone or not. I think Osuna is basically blocked and could stand to get both consistent at-bats and more regular action defensively at 3B.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Could get used to seeing this - in the final spring tuneup, Polanco-Marte-Bell hitting 2-3-4. Polanco and Marte rip line drive singles, and Bell follows it up by smashing an opposite field 3-run HR. The opening day lineup should definitely have Frazier as the DH at the top, and so I suspect things will be awry with Harrison also at the top, but in general, I like that combination, trying to use Bell and Dickerson as the power bats at 4 and 5. Then I'd slot Cervelli 6th and Moran 7th, and redesign things if Moran starts really showing some power + solid hitting (the logical endgame to any lineup rearrangement is Harrison hitting 6th or 7th, though one consideration which will have to mitigate that is how many lefties are in the mix).

I feel like we should have a brief survey to get ready for the season beginning, but also think there is (rightly) not too much interest beyond a wait and see while the Pens are still battling towards the playoffs. 3 bold predictions? Record predictions over the first 10, 20 games? Over-under on triple posts from me by April 30?

 

[AverageJoeFan]

Could get used to seeing this - in the final spring tuneup, Polanco-Marte-Bell hitting 2-3-4. Polanco and Marte rip line drive singles, and Bell follows it up by smashing an opposite field 3-run HR. The opening day lineup should definitely have Frazier as the DH at the top, and so I suspect things will be awry with Harrison also at the top, but in general, I like that combination, trying to use Bell and Dickerson as the power bats at 4 and 5. Then I'd slot Cervelli 6th and Moran 7th, and redesign things if Moran starts really showing some power + solid hitting (the logical endgame to any lineup rearrangement is Harrison hitting 6th or 7th, though one consideration which will have to mitigate that is how many lefties are in the mix).

I feel like we should have a brief survey to get ready for the season beginning, but also think there is (rightly) not too much interest beyond a wait and see while the Pens are still battling towards the playoffs. 3 bold predictions? Record predictions over the first 10, 20 games? Over-under on triple posts from me by April 30?

I like the offensive chances better this year TBH. It's their pitching that concerns me the most. And I am not talking middle to late innings pitching either. I hope that they are at .500 after 20 games. That would be a good start IMO.

 

[Return of the Paek]

Could get used to seeing this - in the final spring tuneup, Polanco-Marte-Bell hitting 2-3-4. Polanco and Marte rip line drive singles, and Bell follows it up by smashing an opposite field 3-run HR. The opening day lineup should definitely have Frazier as the DH at the top, and so I suspect things will be awry with Harrison also at the top, but in general, I like that combination, trying to use Bell and Dickerson as the power bats at 4 and 5. Then I'd slot Cervelli 6th and Moran 7th, and redesign things if Moran starts really showing some power + solid hitting (the logical endgame to any lineup rearrangement is Harrison hitting 6th or 7th, though one consideration which will have to mitigate that is how many lefties are in the mix).

I feel like we should have a brief survey to get ready for the season beginning, but also think there is (rightly) not too much interest beyond a wait and see while the Pens are still battling towards the playoffs. 3 bold predictions? Record predictions over the first 10, 20 games? Over-under on triple posts from me by April 30?

I am surprised, doesn't Marte profile more as a 2 hitter and polanco a 3? Overall, I think our offense will be much better than a lot of people expect, but I think it's clear that our starting pitching looks like a major issue. Taillon and then a bunch of 4s and 5s. Not sure how the hell the team breaks .500 with that pitching staff...

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think the starting pitching is a big question mark. If Kuhl and Williams approximate what they did last year or improve slightly, I think things will be fine, but there's no guarantees. Kuhl was not locked in at all today.

I bet they'll want some variation with the L and R bats in the order, although Marte in front of Polanco does make more sense from a base-stealing perspective. It sounds like Dickerson will be a leadoff hitter sometimes, and I'm sure Frazier will work his way into the lineup an ok amount, although that will probably be more in LF than 2B.

The schedule is not really too strong for the first 30 or 35 games. I think everything rides on the pitching. With the offense looking like it won't start off cold, I think this team can put up some respectable numbers if it's getting 4 quality starts every turn of the rotation, but that's a huge if. I think 6-4 or 7-3 is possible in the first 10, while 6-4 in the following 10 would probably be a really encouraging result. 10-game sequences are a bit arbitrary since it starts breaking up series, but I think a strong start is going to be essential in order to set any kind of precedent to tread water.

We have 3 on the road against a bad team, 2 at home against a similar but probably better team, and then 4 at home against a young team that always tortures us. At minimum, I think you want 2-1, 1-1, and 2-2, for a 5-4 start. 6-3 would be a lot nicer, and is possible without rose colored glasses.

My boldest prediction at this point is that Glasnow is going to be pretty sharp in his relief outings, and there will be mounting pressure for him to have a rotation spot in place of either Kuhl or Nova. I really hope Kuhl proves me wrong. I like what I've seen from the secondary stuff, but I worry about the wildness and effectivity. The pitching situation is demonstrated in a word by the fact that you could probably make this same "bold" prediction and sub in Williams and Musgrove for Kuhl and Nova. I have a fair bit of confidence in Williams, and I think Nova will still eat innings, even if too much of the time that means 4 runs in 6 innings. Kuhl and Musgrove are where the volatility enters in a bit more, and I think both might be a bit of an adventure.

 

[Winger for Hire]

This is probably my favorite Twitter account, even when he's not highlighting Pirates (though Rivero does feature quite frequently):

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Goddamit, it's going to be a rain out tomorrow and they are going to drag it out the whole day, aren't they? Should just do what the Reds have already done and move it to Friday, but I can't imagine there are that many fans counting on them.

 

[DanielPlainview]

My biggest fear with the staff is the Pirates refusing to sit Nova when he's struggling like they did last year. It was infuriating to watch.

Pie in the sky hope: the rotation finishes the year as Taillion, Glasnow, Keller, Kuhl/ Williams /Nova.

 

[ImporterExporter]

90 losses. Hurdle will be canned. Take it to Vegas.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think 90 losses is a possibility. On paper, they are something like a 75-78 win team, but there are a huge number of variables, even settng injuries aside.

I think there's an ok chance that Keller gets some time this year, but it will depend largely on opportunities. He only has 30ish innings above A ball, so I imagine they will be extremely patient with him. If there's some opportunity, I wouldn't bet on seeing him until probably September.

For the rest of the staff, I think a good amount rides with Kuhl and Williams. If they repeat last year, the pitching should be more than fine to attain right around 78-80 wins at least, unless the offense turns into a travesty or something. I have strong confidence in Williams - I'm not sure his ceiling is too much higher than what he showed last year, but he proved time and again that he knows how to make big pitches in key situations, and will almost always get you a solid six innings. One he was in the rotation, he basically had 2 or 3 bad games for the remainder of the season. Kuhl is a lot more of a question mark for me, because I think the floor and ceiling are much different. I'm guessing he'll be all over the place for at least two months or so, as he tries to work out a game plan. With this new offspeed stuff plus the velocity, I wouldn't be surprised if he turns in some starts that really have you dreaming on him being a #1 or #2 type. But if he has issues with wildness, Glasnow and Brault are going to get some regular work when it's his start.

BTW, assuming that tomorrow's game needs to be postponed until Friday, I wonder if it's possible that Glasnow and/or Brault gets handed the second home start of the season?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

One-of-a-kind Indians pitcher marries charity and trolling with his 69 Days of Giving

This is great.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Game has been officially postponed.

The 3 man bench will have to wait another day.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Seems like the right call. Forecasts like this are literally the reason the extra day is built in. I guess with the off day after the home opener, the rotation still lines up the same way, so Glasnow/Brault won't be needed.

 

[td_ice]

Nova can't find the zone. All over the place. Bases loaded.

 

[gtpeli2]

This team is going to be so bad.

 

[td_ice]

Nova gets next two guys, needs one more to get out of jam unscathed, (besides pitch count).


WHEW!! Nova escapes, no runs surrendered. Pitch count high though, I think that was 26.

 

[ResignCraigAdams]

Glasnow-like control to Nova-like control within fifteen minutes.