OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Sell the Team

[Winger for Hire]

By hearing they started with Torres gives me hope that they know they are in a position of relative strength and are in no immediate need to move him.

I just hope they don't overplay their hand because Cole is by no means the only option out there.

 

[TNT87]

I wouldn't mind Frazier and Andujar and another piece.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think the history with the Yankees, plus the situation that the Yankees are currently in, are reasons to be optimistic. The pessimist in me hears the ask for Robles +++ that went awry with Cutch talks last winter, but going with Torres is a smart approach. The Yankees have very little apparent use for Frazier, and because of their financial aim, they can't really leverage signing someone like Arrieta in negotiations.

There are other trade options out there, but I do think Cole is the prime target, stuff-wise. The Yankees still will have a good system if they move two of the four we've been discussing, even throwing in a minor piece in as well.

Part of me wonders with CC back in the mix as a depth option, Montgomery might be on the table. I don't totally love his makeup, but he's probably a more successful pitcher in the NL, and plugs immediately in. Still, if I had my choice, I'd go Sheffield plus Frazier or Andujar, probably Frazier. I'd totally live with that 2-for-1, a low minors guy would be nice, but I'd rather have two highly rated players closer to stepping in than something like Frazier and Montgomery and a couple low levels guys.

Torres would obviously be an amazing grab, but hard to see the Yankees even beginning to consider it, let alone Torres plus one of these four. On the other hand, maybe they switch gears and become really aggressive, and save Frazier and some of these other good pieces as depth options and bullets to use at the deadline. But it's hard to see how Cole would be worth Torres... maybe it's a conversation if he really did dominate last year, but Cole's upside still involves some projection and the HRs are a big red flag for him, IMO.

 

[Winger for Hire]

It's really not going to matter much in the long run...



The big markets are really catching up and have a large safety net. This is really super depressing.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, it's basically pointless in a lot of ways. The huge Dodgers deal probably bodes well for McCutchen's market, at least.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Realmuto requested a trade from Miami.

That's one guy I would absolutely love to see in a Pirates uni. An athletic catcher in the Kendall mold, with a better power stroke.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Realmuto requested a trade from Miami.

That's one guy I would absolutely love to see in a Pirates uni. An athletic catcher in the Kendall mold, with a better power stroke.

**** yeah

 

[Winger for Hire]

In really good general baseball news, Kiley McDaniel is back writing for Fangraphs.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Who knows how long this stasis is going to go on... basically there are a slew of relatively attractive players available in trades, and a million kinda ok Scott Boras free agents. I do think Cole is legitimately the best pitcher who is available--and when I say that, I assume Archer's tag is astronomical, and Fulmer's is kinda the same and also he isn't going anywhere (maybe the Tigers blow it up, but they need to dump salary in the worst way no matter what).

It's hard to know what the hangup is. Maybe the Yankees will only deal Frazier and lower level guys, and the Pirates are fine with the trade most of us would be happy with, but they won't budge. Or maybe NH is being insanely aggressive and trying to get Torres. The best case for us would be if another team became involved. I saw some people tossing around the Dodgers, and you have to wonder how good of a package could be acquired for Cole + Rivero. Buehler + Verdugo is more appealing than Frazier + Adams, and the Dodgers both getting Cole for their rotation and Rivero to form an unstoppable combo with Jansen might be enough to convince them.

Although truthfully, I think drawing up an ideal scenario for me would be something like Cole for Sheffield and Anudjar, and then maybe one of the top Dodgers guys in a deal for Cutch, although maybe Cutch + Rivero would also be an attractive package. The Dodgers don't exactly need an OF, but any or some combo of Cole, Cutch, and Rivero would be attractive to them for various reasons.

I waffle just a little bit on Rivero, but if both Cole and Cutch are going to go, then you should just deal him if it means getting more top young talent. The curveball for me is some improbably Cutch extension, or otherwise retooling for 2018/19, but there's no clear map there. Cole should go no matter what if he can really land a package such as Frazier + Adams, and if Cole goes, there's not a ton of sense keeping Cutch. Maybe the only way it's plausible is if Anudjar and Adams/Sheffield are the return for Cole, then you commit to the rest of the core and don't deal Rivero. The obvious problem there is pitching--while I would love to hope to turn around and nab Cobb, it's 1) not realistic, and 2) any scenario in which the Pirates are competing in 2018 seems to need Gerrit Cole involved, which then compounds things because this hypothetical-Cole has even more value at the deadline and should be trade then anyways.

The most logical course to me is pretty much straight rebuild. There are enough pieces in place, and if the talent we get is close to MLB ready, that the window would begin again in 2019, and really, it wouldn't be absurd to suggest that if the right breaks happened, the 2018 team could be just as middle-of-the-road-maybe-contending-if-they-have-a-few-nice-runs regardless of Cutch and Cole (but probably not Rivero).

 

[Asuna]

In really good general baseball news, Kiley McDaniel is back writing for Fangraphs.

very pleased about this

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Olney seems to think that the options for the Yanks are Corbin, Cole, and Fulmer. I kept overlooking that Archer would be an inter-division deal. I don't think the Rays would be adverse to it for the right package, but that does put more of a damper on it.

Corbin is definitely the safer play and the cost wouldn't be too bad, but Cole has the serious upside and two full years of control. Given the Yankees position and Frazier becoming expendable, you'd think there's enough there to get a deal over the finish line. But also, if Huntington is insistent on either Torres, or still biding his time with the market and what to do, then nothing might happen. I really hope that he actually has made a plan and is trying to commit to it, but I genuinely am not convinced that he has. I think his wait and see approach might be genuine, and the fruit of essentially not knowing what to do (which is not an excuse, that's a really bad thing if it's true).

 

[Brandinho]

Olney seems to think that the options for the Yanks are Corbin, Cole, and Fulmer. I kept overlooking that Archer would be an inter-division deal. I don't think the Rays would be adverse to it for the right package, but that does put more of a damper on it.

Corbin is definitely the safer play and the cost wouldn't be too bad, but Cole has the serious upside and two full years of control. Given the Yankees position and Frazier becoming expendable, you'd think there's enough there to get a deal over the finish line. But also, if Huntington is insistent on either Torres, or still biding his time with the market and what to do, then nothing might happen. I really hope that he actually has made a plan and is trying to commit to it, but I genuinely am not convinced that he has. I think his wait and see approach might be genuine, and the fruit of essentially not knowing what to do (which is not an excuse, that's a really bad thing if it's true).

Fulmer is the safe play IMO, with his only real red flag being a couple of injuries. Corbin is objectively worse than Cole in terms of both performance and stuff and he's a year older.

I really think this comes down to who the Yankees can get a better deal on - Fulmer or Cole. Corbin doesn't belong with the other two and seems like a fallback option if the price is too high for the others.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Fulmer is the safe play IMO, with his only real red flag being a couple of injuries. Corbin is objectively worse than Cole in terms of both performance and stuff and he's a year older.

I really think this comes down to who the Yankees can get a better deal on - Fulmer or Cole. Corbin doesn't belong with the other two and seems like a fallback option if the price is too high for the others.

I agree, definitely, but with Fulmer having 4 years of control left, you have to imagine that the Tigers end of things starts and ends with whether they are willing to move Torres or not.

For us, it's hard to say. Torres seems like a decent negotiating tactic, but the only real reason to balk would be if the offer is Frazier plus prospects not named Anudjar, Sheffield, Adams. And even then, there are a lot of solid guys further down the Yankees list, but barring total superstition, the Pirates don't have to move him now... assuming his HR numbers come back to somewhere near normal, it seems likely that his value will be just as high around the deadline, when there will be more competitors. If I was a Yankee fan, I'd be totally fine tossing two good prospects our way for the possible impact Cole would bring.

Maybe the Yankees other play is just saying F it to financial issues and signing Yu? But it makes more sense that they'd want to steer clear of any financial issues in order to be more primed for Harper and Machado next winter.

 

[Brandinho]

I agree, definitely, but with Fulmer having 4 years of control left, you have to imagine that the Tigers end of things starts and ends with whether they are willing to move Torres or not.

For us, it's hard to say. Torres seems like a decent negotiating tactic, but the only real reason to balk would be if the offer is Frazier plus prospects not named Anudjar, Sheffield, Adams. And even then, there are a lot of solid guys further down the Yankees list, but barring total superstition, the Pirates don't have to move him now... assuming his HR numbers come back to somewhere near normal, it seems likely that his value will be just as high around the deadline, when there will be more competitors. If I was a Yankee fan, I'd be totally fine tossing two good prospects our way for the possible impact Cole would bring.

Maybe the Yankees other play is just saying F it to financial issues and signing Yu? But it makes more sense that they'd want to steer clear of any financial issues in order to be more primed for Harper and Machado next winter.

FWIW, there was an article on fangraphs from the Tigers perspective that came up with this package based on surplus value: Frazier, Sheffield and Adams for Fulmer and Kinsler. The author felt that Torres wouldn't be on the table for Fulmer either.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Interesting- I could see that being feasible on their end, though I wonder if the Yankees want to use most of their non-Torres bullets like that. The obvious advantage is that Fulmer is younger and locked up forever, but from their perspective, using a blocked Frazier + just one of the pitchers doesn't seem like a huge price to pay. The other pitcher still slots in sometime in 2018 in the bullpen/swing starter, and then is right there for 2019.

I think I'm at the point that I will strongly blame NH if something doesn't get done. He's at his absolute worst whenever he's trying to do the holding pattern approach. Things could definitely get more interesting if the Dodgers entered the mix or something, because you add Cole and Rivero to that team, and they really seem like an unstoppable force next year. I like Buehler more than anybody on the Yankees, but I also have the sense that the Dodgers do not want to move him at all.

While we're in such a lull, I wouldn't hate to see Moustakas signed for one year, but I can't see us being too appealing or him being willing to take that at this point. If we were going to sign a brand name FA, Cobb would definitely be my choice, but obviously a couple random RPs and maybe a fourth outfielder are the only real moves we'll make.

 

[Brandinho]

I'm not a fan of trading Rivero now, in general, and I'm vehemently against throwing him into a Cole trade. The two teams we're discussing potential trades with are the two richest teams in baseball, which undermines a key facet of Rivero's value - that he's still cheap. Rivero is still under control for four more years (granted, they're all arb years, but he won't be expensive in 2018). I think his value to us is considerably higher than it is in a trade and I don't think packaging him with Cole is a great use of assets either. If we were committed to trading him, then I think it'd be irresponsible to not accept bids from everyone. Teams who may not have any interest in Cole will certainly have interest in Rivero and we'd be maximizing our return that way.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm fine with keeping him, even being somewhat skeptical of the longevity of RPs. For starters, there's a very good chance that his value will only continue to increase with more exposure, as long as he is consistent. It's possible that he flames out a little bit, but I really doubt it.

Packaging him with Cole is definitely condensing assets, and could backfire significantly. In a situation where we are fully tearing it down, then getting a huge ransom from the Dodgers (like Buehler, Verdugo, ++, maybe including Alvarez) is appealing, but I think you are right overall. I'd also add that there's just too much tied up in this team for 2019/20, and Rivero is still really part of that. The idea of completely blowing it up and moving Marte, Polanco, Taillon, etc etc in addition just doesn't make a lot of sense.

For me, I am dealing Cole if I can get two good prospects who will step in right away. I worry about him going down for TJ more than anything else. Then, they have to figure out the move with Cutch. I don't hate every scenario where he stays, but 5 years is a little bit too aggressive of a commitment, and almost definitely will backfire. If he compromises with a 4 year deal, or a 3 year deal with a big mutual option or something, then I could personally live with it, just because I don't see any way forward for this team that doesn't include really trying to go for it in 2019 and 2020, and I don't know how much trading Cutch vs. taking the chance that he can stay a superstar really does for that situation. Certainly he'd get an ok haul right now, and it would be better than losing him for nothing or the even worse scenario where he is getting paid relatively huge money and sucks again, but there aren't great alternatives really on the table. Polanco and Meadows are question marks. Frazier would make things too crowded, even assuming Meadows is used as some kind of trade chip.

I don't envy the decision and I lean towards just taking the best deal I can get for Cutch this winter, but the focus has to basically be on a kind of combo re-tool/re-build. Everything is compounded by the problem that we will not turn to the FA market to take a chance on the re-tooling part, outside of bargain deals and the like.

In any case, I think the clearest move is to get whatever value we can for Cole. If a deal of 2 of Frazier/Adams/Sheffield/Andujar just isn't in the cards, then I'd be ok with waiting til mid-season, but otherwise I cash out and then re-assess the situation depending on Cutch's market. Any four of those guys would be contributors for 2018-2020 anyways, and ideally whatever would come back for Cutch also is. That's about the best half-plan that I think can be crafted given the options realistically on the table.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Don't want to lapse into reading too much into things, but I don't think Cashman likely using the NY Post to drive a hard bargain bodes well for any deal involving Cole. Maybe it's all hot air, but I definitely think Huntington will just keep him into the season if he doesn't get the offer he wants.

Seems like last winter all over again, in terms of intensity of rumors fizzling into absolutely nothing. I wouldn't be too shocked if we're vaguely connected to Cobb or someone else by the end of the week...

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Don't want to lapse into reading too much into things, but I don't think Cashman likely using the NY Post to drive a hard bargain bodes well for any deal involving Cole. Maybe it's all hot air, but I definitely think Huntington will just keep him into the season if he doesn't get the offer he wants.

Seems like last winter all over again, in terms of intensity of rumors fizzling into absolutely nothing. I wouldn't be too shocked if we're vaguely connected to Cobb or someone else by the end of the week...

I dont know if Cole will end up a Yankee or not but this is the same song and dance all GMs do. Cashman tried the same thing when Burnett was traded.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah - I think what it probably will come down to the most is how much Cashman actually wants an impact SP for the rotation. They have the lineup and the overall staff to be fine, and so you can easily argue that a better move would be to see which pitcher is having the strongest season around the deadline and decide to make the upgrade then. The obvious advantage with Cole is that it shores up their lineup for two full years.

We'll never have all the information regardless of what happens, but I think Huntington is foolish if he keeps pressing for Torres, and totally in the right if he is pressing for two of the other group we've tossed around. I hope that the Dodgers end up entering the mix, because that turns up some more pressure on the Yankees, especially because it's plausible that if the Dodgers get him, he'll be there behind Kershaw in the rotation forever. Hard to say who the best team is on paper right now, but the Dodgers + Cole would be pretty ominous, and having them and the Yankees in a bidding war bodes extremely well for our chances (though I can't see Buehler or Torres headlining a deal for either).

Edit: Sherman was apparently on MLB network a little bit ago and basically say what we kind of know- the Yanks are "slow walking" teams for trading an SP. He compared Cole's value to Sonny Gray, which seems about right, although the Yankees current depth doesn't make an exact comparison viable Frazier is still probably a decent clip above the guys who went to the As, mechanics concerns aside. But the middle of their list, while excellent, is just a hair thinner. In my absolutely non-scientific opinion, something like Frazier, Andujar, and Widener would approximate the Gray trade.

He said he still expects a new arm by the time camp opens in February.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Gerritt Cole is not a good pitcher at this point. I don't even know what the Yanks want with him. He got lit up like a christmas tree in PNC Park last year. Yankee Stadium will do him no favors.

If he turns back into 2015 Cole it will work out but I don't see it happening. He just doesn't fool anyone.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Gerritt Cole is not a good pitcher at this point. I don't even know what the Yanks want with him. He got lit up like a christmas tree in PNC Park last year. Yankee Stadium will do him no favors.

If he turns back into 2015 Cole it will work out but I don't see it happening. He just doesn't fool anyone.

I mean,this is nonsense.

Career triple slash of 3.50/3.27/3.47

3.1 War in 2017
2.5 (in 116 IP), paced 200 IP 4.30 WAR in 2016
5.5 WAR in 2015

One year anomaly of HRs is not the correct way to judge a pitcher

If this is him being bad then on his bad days he ranked T-24th for SP last year.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Fun fact- ZiPS has Cole projected at 3.4 zWAR, 174 K, 49 BB, 189+ IP, 86/82 ERA-/FIP-, with #1 comp of Kevin Brown.

So there's a lot of industry faith in Cole.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It could just be totally made up bullshit (*likely is), but from what I gathered searching twitter for the past 5-10 minutes is that the rumored ask was Frazier, Adams, and Andujar for Cole and Harrison. That would be a nice return, though I'm a little skeptical that Harrison would be involved. I'm sure he has some positive value, and his contract is friendly if you think he'll improve (team options, so he can just be dumped if not).

If Harrison is on the move in this or another deal, then the move will definitely be to rebuild in 2018, I think.

Harrison in the deal also doesn't make sense from the Yanks luxury tax perspective. There is a rumor attached that they want to dump a BP arm elsewhere for more wiggle room - and if that's the case, you'd hope NH would be willing to oblige this, since it's not huge money or commitment and could help buy some prospects. But I bet, based on nothing other than speculation, that the holdup is around Cashman budging over two top-100 prospects, Torres or no. And Huntington should probably stay firm if that's the case.

 

[Brandinho]

It could just be totally made up bull**** (*likely is), but from what I gathered searching twitter for the past 5-10 minutes is that the rumored ask was Frazier, Adams, and Andujar for Cole and Harrison. That would be a nice return, though I'm a little skeptical that Harrison would be involved. I'm sure he has some positive value, and his contract is friendly if you think he'll improve (team options, so he can just be dumped if not).

If Harrison is on the move in this or another deal, then the move will definitely be to rebuild in 2018, I think.

Harrison in the deal also doesn't make sense from the Yanks luxury tax perspective. There is a rumor attached that they want to dump a BP arm elsewhere for more wiggle room - and if that's the case, you'd hope NH would be willing to oblige this, since it's not huge money or commitment and could help buy some prospects. But I bet, based on nothing other than speculation, that the holdup is around Cashman budging over two top-100 prospects, Torres or no. And Huntington should probably stay firm if that's the case.

Is that a rumor or did someone read fangraphs and just substitute Harrison for Kinsler? Haha.

I'd be okay with that trade, but before accepting I'd try to grab Betances in the deal given that he seems to have fallen out of favor in New York.