OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: New season of plundering begins

[MrBrightside]

I will admit, I thought Jones was going to be a good MLB pitcher but I'm shocked at how downright dominant he is. I thought he was more realistically looking at #3 upside, but he may legitimately have Strider-like upside with how nasty his stuff is.

Strider is in the same exact boat as him as mostly only being a 2 pitch pitcher, but his fastball/slider combo is so deadly that he's going to be in contention for the Cy Young every year he's healthy. I don't want to say Jones will end up quite that good, but his stuff is so filthy that I don't even think it's a stretch to make the comparison.

Skenes is the same way as having a lethal fastball/slider combo, but I think Skenes' tertiary pitches are better developed than Jones'.

He's very similar to Strider. Which is both awesome and terrifying given two TJS's.

 

[Empoleon8771]

He's very similar to Strider. Which is both awesome and terrifying given two TJS's.

I fully expect both Jones and Skens to have TJS at some point. I just hope they don't overlap when they have it.

You can't be throwing fastballs and sliders with that velocity without blowing out your elbow at some point.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

I fully expect both Jones and Skens to have TJS at some point. I just hope they don't overlap when they have it.

You can't be throwing fastballs and sliders with that velocity without blowing out your elbow at some point.

This has been my fear since they drafted Skenes.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Good interview with Jared Jones that was recorded a few days ago. Talks about where his velocity comes from, workload, his and the organizations approach to pitching, being a two way player in high school, Paul Skenes etc...

The overlay in that clip of the slider breaking from the same path as his fastball... Holy shit... I would be an automatic out in the box

This has been my fear since they drafted Skenes.

And why you want to use up the limited life in games that might matter

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The main thing that worries me with Skenes and injury is him throwing the "splinker" or whatever term people are trying to push for it. It's the same pitch Jhoan Duran throws, but I tend to think pitches with that kind of action are a big risk.

They were getting into this a bit on the broadcast, but the biggest surprise with Jones has been the overwhelming amount of strikes and avoidance of balls. He was not consistent like this in the minors at all, but so far he can pretty much always throw either the fastball or slider for a called strike if he wants or needs to, and obviously tons of guys try to take a hack and have no prayer.

The whiff rate is genuinely absurd. Unless there's pretty serious regression over a decent stretch (he will definitely have a bad game or two at some point, but I mean like a 4-5 game spell), I don't see how he isn't the rookie of the year. This is wishful thinking, but it would be pretty hilarious if Jones is the major reason Skenes doesn't come close enough to the top-2 ROY pace because it goes to Jones and Yamamoto/Chourio/someone on a different team, since then we'd recoup the pick and get the additional year of service for Skenes.

 

[MrBrightside]

Pirates should be all over this, though I doubt he'll make it to them. But if he does, he's an upgrade (and a free one at that).

 

[Empoleon8771]

The inherent risk that comes from pitchers needing TJS is why I'm not really too keen on moving Chandler right now, either. I think it's reasonable to expect that at least 1 starting pitcher will get injured and be out for the season in any given year. Between Oviedo this year, Brubaker last year, Taillon in 2020 and Kuhl in 2019, it's a very common trend that the Pirates will lose at least 1 of those guys.

You hope that it's not one of Skenes, Jones or Keller going down, and especially hope that multiple of those guys don't go down at the same time, but you need to be prepared for those inevitable injuries. Maybe the Pirates can still get away with trading a pitching prospect, since their pitcher prospect pool is substantially better than their hitter prospect pool, but you always want to have more pitching than you need.

 

[WickedWrister]

The main thing that worries me with Skenes and injury is him throwing the "splinker" or whatever term people are trying to push for it. It's the same pitch Jhoan Duran throws, but I tend to think pitches with that kind of action are a big risk.

They were getting into this a bit on the broadcast, but the biggest surprise with Jones has been the overwhelming amount of strikes and avoidance of balls. He was not consistent like this in the minors at all, but so far he can pretty much always throw either the fastball or slider for a called strike if he wants or needs to, and obviously tons of guys try to take a hack and have no prayer.

The whiff rate is genuinely absurd. Unless there's pretty serious regression over a decent stretch (he will definitely have a bad game or two at some point, but I mean like a 4-5 game spell), I don't see how he isn't the rookie of the year. This is wishful thinking, but it would be pretty hilarious if Jones is the major reason Skenes doesn't come close enough to the top-2 ROY pace because it goes to Jones and Yamamoto/Chourio/someone on a different team, since then we'd recoup the pick and get the additional year of service for Skenes.

Yeah in the JJ interview I watched, he talked about how he doesn't consider himself as a guy that has pinpoint command. Tries to target the center of the plate and let his movement do the rest. His and the organizations whole mantra was "Best stuff, in zone". Establish that you're willing to throw in the strike zone early and this will help with getting batters to chase later in the outing.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Jared Jones is literally the only player worth tuning in for right now. Skenes will soon be the 2nd. Are they enough to propel an offensively inept squad? If Jones keeps up this pace and Skenes is who we think he is? Yeah, probably talking about 85-90 wins.

I remain steadfast that we won't see real world winning until the management up top, gets rid of the management on the field though. Shelton and Haines are historically bad at their respective jobs. And it's not a small sample size either.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm still extremely bullish on Johnson long-term, but the hitting prospect group definitely leaves you wanting. It's feasible that we could draft a decent impact college bat who could move quickly, but hard to bank on that being something that really helps even the 2025 team.

That said, a lot of this can be solved by actually paying for free agents. It's low-hanging fruit but as we are seeing, a swap of Tellez for Hoskins would really change the dynamic of the lineup, and it's not like Hoskins is making bank. The only thing I would say is that Hoskins is obviously extremely broken from the surgery (I bet Tellez would beat him in a foot race), so I don't know how that impacts his defense, but I doubt he gets another contract similar to what he got.

Still, the general point would be that we could pay for an everyday, above average position player to supplement the lineup. Whether we will do that or not remains to be seen, but we clearly aren't doing that with a pitcher.

What worries me with Johnson is he seems to be so inconsistent. Extremely streaky hitter. He'll flash power and then go forever without showing any. He'll flash the elite bat to ball skills, but more so doesn't.

Nobody denies his ability to draw a walk and work a count. That's mature well beyond his 19 years of age in A+ ball.

The question is whether all the other inconsistencies he shows are largely because he's still 19, or is he simply not as good as advertised by the masses?

Hoping the former of course.

 

[TimmyD]

Rough start to Jackson Holliday's career. 1 for 30 so far.

Wait Jackson Holliday is in the majors? Isn’t he the Orioles top prospect? I didn’t think top prospects could be called up yet. Weird how that works

 

[BusinessGoose]

MLB debut for MIL Pitcher Myers

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I am extremely wary of expressing any optimism with Falter on the mound, but it's time to be aggressive and greedy. Milwaukee is facing some tough injuries, though their offense should still be plenty fine to punish bad pitching (Falter today, then Priester tomorrow).

Still, we are facing a rookie who is making his debut and was touched up for a bunch of HRs last year in AA. He looks to be off to an ok start and reportedly has a really lively fastball. I think it will be important to get him deep into counts and exploit the nerves of the debut, and hopefully we can run into one and jump out to a nice lead for Falter.

I have no idea if the success can continue with Falter on the mound, but it's been hard to deny his results so far. At some point it has to come crashing back down. Hopefully not tonight.

 

[BusinessGoose]

MLB debut for MIL Pitcher Myers

Cutch says welcome to The Bigs, kid

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Perfect inning from Falter there. Goes right after guys which enables him to try and nibble on the edges and off the plate vs Sanchez who can obviously erase the lead. He was also doing the same vs. Contreras and Adames, and I don't think you mind it because he should absolutely be a 5 and dive or whatever two times through the order is, unless the lead balloons.

He kind of hung a pitch there to Sanchez but you can also see that the hitters are not very comfortable against him. Like most, I do not like Falter or want him in the rotation, but he's more than doing the job of eating reasonably quality innings as a #5 starter type. Even if he just keeps this up for another month, it makes this acquisition by BC look pretty solid. I don't really have any faith in him over the long haul, but as cheap depth, hard to argue at the moment.

 

[Empoleon8771]

McCutchen has obviously been on fire, but even Cruz has been doing much better since he got moved around in the lineup.

With how well Bart is hitting, I don't know how you can't treat him as the full blown starting C right now.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Bart has been a wonderful pickup, that's for sure

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Pretty incredible work from Falter. We got luck with both the balls in play being bad contact / at fielders, as well as not being burned by letting Contreras take second on a sloppy defensive play, but for him to face Contreras and Adames in RISP situations and escape unscathed is damn good work.

Myers looks decently locked in, but maybe the second time through will yield more traffic. We need more out of Reynolds and Hayes to get a crooked number here.

 

[wheelz87]

Kind of over tellez at this point

 

[BusinessGoose]

Decent fielding

I like how falter hasnt psyched himself out in some of the situations he been in

Gotta get guys into home plate

 

[DJ Spinoza]

No way around it- need to convert this to a W with how we've struggled lately and how this has started. This is the kind of thing that can yank momentum back in the right direction and shrug off a couple really bad series.

Reynolds, Hayes, Tellez all have done no damage tonight as Myers looks pretty comfortable. I'm thinking that Cruz or Bart need to run into one to get us some real cushion. Not sure 1-0 is a lead we can defend, especially with Chapman being completely unreliable.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The absolutely fascinating thing to me with Falter this year is that the batted ball data actually aligns with him being at least a decent starter. Even including that disaster first outing, he's at a 76th percentile in hard hit%, 86th percentile in average exit velocity and 40th percentile in xERA. That xERA number isn't anything particularly special, but it aligns that he's putting up league average-ish numbers and expected numbers by getting a ton of weak contact.

If he was a ground ball pitcher instead of a fly ball pitcher, you'd have the makeup of a legitimately good soft throwing lefty starter.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Kind of over tellez at this point

I would have wanted to bring santana back for "the big first baseman who you need to homer to do anything at all" position

But... Tellez has been way more effective than santana, so, dodged a timebomb there lol

Triolo going well over ten pitches at his AB... 12 pitches into a walk, very good... Then caught stealing lol... Smart, let bart leadoff with no outs next time lol

 

[WickedWrister]

Nice, a little insurance. Let's blow this open.

Edit: Welp 2 flyouts and a ground out on like 5 pitches

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm curious for at what point they pull the plug on this Triolo experiment and call up Gonzalesto be the 2B. He's been atrocious at the plate recently and I don't think they can ignore how well Gonzales is doing in AAA.