Radical Idea: So Many Expansion Candidates...New League?

[Ford Prefect]

The NHL is now a $6+ billion a year league... A upstart/startup is not going to be able to compete with that.

...and before anyone inevitably mentions it, dividing the NHL into tiers with promotion and relegation, like we see in Europe, isn't going to work either. It's sort of a fun "what if" to think about, but the NHL (and other NA pro leagues), with the way it evolved and is currently structured and operates, is completely incompatible with the concept.

Over the last few years you would have seen the Blackhawks and Canadiens relegated. Can you imagine? The Leafs in 2016. Kings in 2018-19. Detroit in 2019-20. 5 of the biggest markets in the league.

 

[KevFu]

The argument they make with the ticket packages is the teams will package the game against Edmonton with 3+ games that traditionally will not draw. But, I agree. Yes, you get the one game with McDavid that gets all kinds of hoopla and then 3-4 that may have a little buzz, ala Panthers-Knights this year may have, and then 10 or so duds.

Agreed on tv. in 1985, NYers had 9 chances to see Gretzky on tv which were the 3 games against the Rangers, Isles, Devils. OCCASSIONALLY, Sportschannel or ESPN would show an out of market game, but even into the late 80s, Sportschannel carrying an out of market game in NY was rare. Now, you can see McDavid every night.

The ticket package part is a valid point. I would say that the entire nexus of "the fans want to see everyone at home once" is catering to the season ticket holders; (and the Central Division), but it's terrible for the fans who DON'T have the money to buy season tickets.

I wonder what the numbers are for NHL teams' number of "unique customers." Based on my (mostly out of market) experience, I'd assume there's way more fans of every franchise in all sports than Season Ticket Holders. However the amount of revenue each group is providing their franchise is a lot closer (duh).

But I think that you're making those "non season ticket holders" LESS LIKELY to go to games with the H/A vs everyone schedule. Because they're watching more TV games than people actually at the arena. And you're playing more games at 10 pm ET and 4 pm PT with H/A vs everyone. Which makes people more casual about their fandom.


I'd say you're better off not bundling every season's McDavid visit with 3 other games each season, but just jacking up the price for McDavid's visit in the schedule rotation every 4 years. You're making the people with partials disgruntled by paying more to see McDavid every year; and you're not getting a line around the block for McDavid's visit because "we can try our luck next season."

 

[Yukon Joe]

I wonder what the numbers are for NHL teams' number of "unique customers." Based on my (mostly out of market) experience, I'd assume there's way more fans of every franchise in all sports than Season Ticket Holders. However the amount of revenue each group is providing their franchise is a lot closer (duh).

So I'm a Jets fan living in Edmonton. When I go to a Jets @ Oilers game there's a sizeable number of Jets fans in the building - mostly because both Edmonton and Winnipeg are in Western Canada, there's lots of migration between Alberta and Manitoba.

Similarly if an O6 team shows up in Edmonton you get a lot of fans from those teams, just due to history and fandom being passed down parent to child.

But I'll be honest - if you get a random US team in Edmonton the fans are 100% behind the Oilers.

I remember going to a Sharks @ Oilers game. I did see like a dozen fans all wearing the jersey for some 4th liner for the Sharks. His home town of course was Edmonton and so they must have all been friends and family.

All of that being said - it would be interesting to find out how many unique fans go to see a game in a year. Because even if you're just a fan of the home team a lot of people can only afford to see a game or two, not 41.

 

[KevFu]

So I'm a Jets fan living in Edmonton. When I go to a Jets @ Oilers game there's a sizeable number of Jets fans in the building - mostly because both Edmonton and Winnipeg are in Western Canada, there's lots of migration between Alberta and Manitoba.

Similarly if an O6 team shows up in Edmonton you get a lot of fans from those teams, just due to history and fandom being passed down parent to child.

But I'll be honest - if you get a random US team in Edmonton the fans are 100% behind the Oilers.

That's expected to me. There's not a lot of people who've moved from say, Nashville to Winnipeg. And for those who have, there's time variables on if they'd even be Preds fans and loyal to them despite moving -- which would be a fun logic chart to make.

All of that being said - it would be interesting to find out how many unique fans go to see a game in a year. Because even if you're just a fan of the home team a lot of people can only afford to see a game or two, not 41.

I have no doubt that the Canadian teams who sell out their home games all the time, frequently with the same people in the building most nights... those fans want to see everyone visit once.

The NHL's core logic is "our STH want this," But aren't they going to the games regardless of opponent?

The Home/Away vs everyone logic for me falls apart for all the teams that DON'T sell out every game regardless of opponent. The whole "They need the gate of McDavid visiting" doesn't work, because there's just more non-sexy opponents in the other conference than sexy ones.

And if you're someone going to a couple games a year, then economic factors are probably larger than "who the opponent is." (with the obvious caveat of interest based on star power, but again, that's offset by the teams with no star power).

And if you're not going to games at all, but watch on TV.... then START TIMES are your biggest factor, as you're less likely to watch 10 pm ET or 4 pm PT games because of their inconvenience.


I just do not understand how anyone in the Pacific, Mountain or Eastern time zones could make more money playing H/A vs everyone than not. Central teams (who are the REAL REASON we're doing this) get to sell more 6 pm games and less 9 pm games to their TV partners. THAT makes money.