Prospect Info: Prospect Rankings #3
- Thread starter hb12xchamps
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hb12xchamps
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The difference is that you are using a fake “corsi” stat over a 17 game sample size to come up with an opinion on Lucas Johansen while posters like myself and @Holtbyisms have actually watched him play numerous times. You even admitted you have only watched a little bit of video on the player.
So let’s rehash what people have said numerous times in BOTH prospect threads. The first half of this Bears season is not a significant indicator of how a prospect has performed. Again, this team was absolutely horrendous to start the year due to a new staff, new systems, new team and a reliance on young players playing a lot of minutes. To say that LuJo is closer to the ECHL is a scalding hot take and your backup evidence is a bunch of your own made up statistics without any type of eye test.
I have no problem with you as a poster but I do find it completely unfair that you constantly have shit on LuJos game. This is my last post on this matter because it has taken away from the actual point of this entire thread
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
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Bold prediction. If he can stay healthy, you WILL be the first happy.
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
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francaisvolantsparis
Registered User
You want me to bet on LuJo fail? I will put LuJo on my avatar for one year if in any of the next three seasons he will start ten or more NHL games. Is it OK?
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CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
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I’m not in on this, it’s you and hb11!
I’m just stoking the fire!
I do think you would lose that bet.
I respect what you are trying to do, I just dont respect the sample you are using. We could do this for the current Caps team, and we'd have some terrific players look like dogsh*t if you used these types of analytics.
Do players have dogsh*t stretches? YES
Does that mean they are dogsh*t players? NO
Orlov, Niskanen, Eller, Holtby, Kuznetsov, Oshie have all been terrible the past 20 games or so (same sample size for someone like LuJo). I wouldnt want the team to determine they were awful over that sample, and then label them. I also dont think we should be doing the same for any player....let alone one that is 21 and has been injured.
So, thats my 2 cents.
Hivemind
We're Touched
Jumping back before the last page of shenanigans.
I don't really think it's shiny new toy. I think it's the fact that AA is blowing away what any of our D prospects have done in their D+1 year since John Carlson combined with a really rocky start for Samsonov in the AHL. If Samsonov played as well as he has his past few starts at the beginning of the season, I think more people would have kept him at #1.
There's not really much justification for having LuJo over AA in prospect rankings, in my mind. Alexeyev has been superior in virtually every aspect of the game to Johansen at the same age. I'm by no means writing off Johansen completely as an NHL prospect, but I definitely don't have him as my number 2 prospect in the system at this point. The best case scenario for LuJo may be something like Karl Alzner, and as time progresses it looks more and more like Alzner was an anchor on his partners.
And to respond to another post, I do think that it's a pretty fair comparison between Alexeyev and Johansen in the WHL. Being on a great junior team usually BOOSTS a players numbers and perspective, not hinders it. There are often passengers on junior teams who get drafted above where they should be and flame out in the minors. I'm not saying that this will happen to Johansen, only that claiming the fact he was on a good team suppressed his play is rather bogus. He was still getting powerplay time and top pairing minutes for Kelowna.
I don't really think it's shiny new toy. I think it's the fact that AA is blowing away what any of our D prospects have done in their D+1 year since John Carlson combined with a really rocky start for Samsonov in the AHL. If Samsonov played as well as he has his past few starts at the beginning of the season, I think more people would have kept him at #1.
There's not really much justification for having LuJo over AA in prospect rankings, in my mind. Alexeyev has been superior in virtually every aspect of the game to Johansen at the same age. I'm by no means writing off Johansen completely as an NHL prospect, but I definitely don't have him as my number 2 prospect in the system at this point. The best case scenario for LuJo may be something like Karl Alzner, and as time progresses it looks more and more like Alzner was an anchor on his partners.
And to respond to another post, I do think that it's a pretty fair comparison between Alexeyev and Johansen in the WHL. Being on a great junior team usually BOOSTS a players numbers and perspective, not hinders it. There are often passengers on junior teams who get drafted above where they should be and flame out in the minors. I'm not saying that this will happen to Johansen, only that claiming the fact he was on a good team suppressed his play is rather bogus. He was still getting powerplay time and top pairing minutes for Kelowna.
Carlzner
Registered User
Interesting to compare him to a player he doesn't play anything like.
Seigenthaler is the best Alzner comparison for real.
Hivemind
We're Touched
They play rather similarly, especially comparing their time in the American league. Alzner became progressively more conservative as he adjusted to the NHL. Johansen will likely have to do similarly, considering his mobility isn't going to be high end at the NHL level.
Hivemind
We're Touched
Given his iffy turnovers on breakouts and occasional big hit, Siege is more of a Simon Despres-type than a Karl Alzner-type, but I guess if you're limiting the options to former Capitals (as I was using earlier) then Alzner isn't a terrible comp.
hb12xchamps
Registered User
I have the poll set up to close tomorrow morning, so if you haven't voted I'd probably vote today. Otherwise, it looks like Jonas will be our #3 prospect and a new poll will be set up tomorrow.
Side note: Anyone have a preference on who would you like to be added into the next poll to replace the eventual winner? Kody Clark? Beck Malenstyn? Tobias Geisser? I figured they are the most likely to be added in the next three polls
Side note: Anyone have a preference on who would you like to be added into the next poll to replace the eventual winner? Kody Clark? Beck Malenstyn? Tobias Geisser? I figured they are the most likely to be added in the next three polls
francaisvolantsparis
Registered User
Please add one of Tyler Lewington (D), Liam O'Brien (C/LW) and Nathan Walker (LW), or remove Riley Barber (RW) from the poll. All are 1994 YOB.
Langway
In den Wolken
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I don't think that's his problem. It's strength/physicality. He can skate just fine for NHL usefulness. He's more like a cross between Kempny & Djoos with Siegenthaler more like Orpik than Alzner.
Samsonov to me probably should still be #1 due to sheer upside. Alexeyev has performed better this season overall but still has some questions about durability and ultimate NHL offensive upside.
hb12xchamps
Registered User
Considering Barber received votes over almost all the younger forwards on the list I’m not removing him. It seems to have been agreed in the prospects thread that Liam O’Brien, Nathan Walker and Tyler Lewington have grown out of the prospects stage. If anyone else wants them added in then sure but I think Malenstyn, Clark and Geisser will receive votes before they do IMO
hb12xchamps
Registered User
Pretty much spot on. His mobility is actually one of his strengths IMO.
He doesn’t shy away from physical play but he definitely doesn’t seek it out. Adding muscle to his frame would be extremely beneficial
Silky mitts
It’s yours boys and girls and babes let’s go!
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francaisvolantsparis
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The #6 post in this tread shows why Hockeysfuture considers Tyler Lewington to be Prospect in this actual last season. O’Brien, Walker and Barber are not Prospects any more by Hockeysfuture. But up to you.
Kody Clark for me if I choose from younger guys.
Hivemind
We're Touched
His point is that Barber is the same age as those prospects. Why is he still considered a prospect while the others aren't? Seems rather arbitrary to me.
I didn't mean to imply that skating was his "problem," rather that his skating isn't going to be a standout characteristic for him at the NHL level. Because his mobility isn't overwhelmingly good, he's going to end up having to take a more position-based, conservative approach to playing the game. His relative lack of strength is also going to stop him from being a guy who mauls forwards in the corners, so nobody is going to go around comparing him to Alexei Emelin.
I don't see quite the same brand of nasty in Siege that Orpik had in his prime. Maybe he'll grow into more of a crease clearer, we'll see.
Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
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I don't think it's his mobility that would lead to that, though. It's more to do with him not being all that assertive or up-tempo overall, though he does show glimpses of it at times. He almost shows flashes of Nate Schmidt at times in the way he can transport the puck through the neutral zone. So I think it's less mobility that would lead to that than consistency and not possessing tremendous hockey sense to the point where he reads the play faster than everyone else. His gap control was a standout aspect of his game in his draft year and it remains a positive aspect when he's on. He may not offer very much offensive upside or the consistency to be a top two or three type but he may be able to carve out a steadying type two-way 4/5 role if he continues to progress. He's not quite as good of a skater as John Moore at this point but I think that's along the lines of what he's tracking toward.
Siegenthaler has shown glimpses of stout physical play. It's not in your face as much as Orpik but he's laid some guys out along the boards. As he further refines his diet, playing weight and pro comfort level I think he'll continue to add to that a bit.
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hb12xchamps
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Only reason I personally still consider Barber a “prospect” is due to the high amount of games missed and the glimpse of upside the past two seasons when he has actually played. He’s on the fringe as being a Alex Giroux/Chris Bourque type but I also think he hasn’t been given a shot yet at the NHL level due to the depth in Washington, his injuries and the fact that the Caps haven’t lost a ton of forwards to long term injuries.
I can remove him from the next poll to make it fair but that’s just my opinion on the subject. I think out of the other three (Liam, Walker and Lewington) that Walker has an outside chance somewhere else if given the opportunity but he’s pretty much trending towards a guy who goes overseas and makes a career over there
I can remove him from the next poll to make it fair but that’s just my opinion on the subject. I think out of the other three (Liam, Walker and Lewington) that Walker has an outside chance somewhere else if given the opportunity but he’s pretty much trending towards a guy who goes overseas and makes a career over there
hb12xchamps
Registered User
@calicapsfan looks like I can't delete the poll and add a new one. Can you add a new poll with Kody Clark and Beck Malenstyn added in and remove Siegs and Barber (since he doesn't fit the age requirement)? Thanks in advance!
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