OgeeOgelthorpe
Baldina
- Feb 29, 2020
- 17,246
- 18,416
Thats exactly what I meant. I dont mean that the potential ceilings of the players are lower than any other year. I moreso meant to say that having the #1 OA specifically isnt nearly as valueable as it usually is because theres no clear front runner/"cant miss"/no brainer choice. I dont see #1OA being particularly more valuable than say, #5OA at the moment. Theres a lot of quality players and I wouldnt know who to choose and id be just as happy with #1OA or #5OA.
Of course theres always inherent value in picking higher so that you have a wider choice of players to pick from. We're still a ways out from the draft so its not surprising that there is no consensus frontrunner. However, due to COVID, i dont see a frontrunner emerging that would elevate the value of #1OA. So many prospects will be playing variable amounts of games, maybe different rules (no checking in the OHL??!), etc.
We're likely to finish in the bottom 5 of the league this year, so having a historically bad year in 2020 or 2021 is kind of a wash. We knew there was a higher chance of picking 4th overall than 1st this year, and we got exactly that. Chances are we get boned by the lottery again in 2021, except the difference this time isn't as big as it was in 2017 or 2020's drafts in the quality of our draft choice.
In 2021's draft picking 4th through 7th overall still lands us a true #1 defenseman. During 2020 we knew that picking 4th through 7th overall would net us a potential first line forward but an obvious tier below the top 3. It sucks that we didn't land Stutzle or Lafreniere but I'm cheering for Raymond now. If we miss out on Owen Power or Brandt Clarke it will hurt even less knowing that there's Carson Lambos, Simon Edvinsson and Luke Hughes still out there.