Speculation: Projecting the 2021 Seattle Expansion protection list and who the Wild lose

[HotDish]

I thought it would interesting seeing some scenarios in who we could protect and who we may lose in the 2021 ED.

First as it stands right now the Team has 5 NMCs. (Zucc, Parise, Brodin, Suter, and Spurgeon) I do not see any of them waiving however, I would argue that Parise would be 100% chance he is safe so maybe Guerin could work his magic.

Protecting 8 skaters + one Goalie

Protection list
Forwards: Parise, Fiala, Zuccarello, and Ek
Defense: Dumba, Spurgeon, Suter, and Brodin
Goalie: Kähkönen

BPA At risk exposed (no order): Greenway, Sturm, Hartman/Foligno(extended), Menell, Soucy, Belpedio, and Talbot

Who do we lose? Greenway I think is the favorite to lose. I anticipate that more teams will go 7-3-1 which limits forward options for Seattle. I think having a young forward like Greenway would be hard to pass on.

Dark horse to lose? Talbot may be tempting if he has a great year behind the Wild's defense. While there will be other Goalie options like Jake Allen and Holtby/Demko. I think there are good arguements why Talbot could be picked.

1) Talbot will be a starter this season so sample size should be larger than Allen who will most likely be the backup in MTL.
2) Talbot will have one more year of control than Holtby and cheaper cap hit.
3) Talbot has more NHL experience than Demko and more proven starter. Demko could have a higher ceiling and no reason seattle can't pick him up as a backup to take over starter once Talbot leaves.
4) Seattle must pick 3 goalies and even with the Van goalie + Allen that leaves room for one more.

Protecting 7 Forwards + 3 Defensemen + one Goalie

Protection list
Forwards: Parise, Fiala, Zuccarello, Greenway, Foligno(extended), Sturm, and Ek
Defense: Brodin, Suter, and Spurgeon
Goalie: Kähkönen

*Important note: To go 7-3-1 most likely Dumba has been traded. If that is the case one of those forwards spots would need to be opened if a forward came back in the trade. Look for Foligno or Sturm to be exposed or Foligno most likely traded.

BPA At risk exposed (no order): Hartman, Soucy, Belpedio, Menell, and Talbot

Who do we lose? I think Soucy has the highest chance of being picked. He could find himself in Seattle's 2nd D pairing. I could also see them taking a flier on Belpedio or Menell even with limited game experience.

Dark Horse: Again Talbot as listed before.

Lastly, I didn't include any pending UFAs(except Foligno) since we don't know if anyone will be kept after the season or traded away. Russo also seem pretty confident about Hartman being moved since he isn't sure that the Wild want to give him an arb. contract for a 4th liner.

TLDR: expect at the current state that Greenway, Soucy, and Talbot are at danger of being lost to Seattle.

Click to read more...

 

[Yeolo]

I didn't know Menell was up for grabs. Not sure how I feel about that. I think he's a player that slots into our defensive core for years to come.

 

[HotDish]

I didn't know Menell was up for grabs. Not sure how I feel about that. I think he's a player that slots into our defensive core for years to come.

He wasn't exempted on the capfriendly expansion draft tool, so I figured he must be at risk.

 

[Digitalbooya]

How many teams have an expansion draft slot available for Dumba? Could make it harder to trade him.

 

[HotDish]

How many teams have an expansion draft slot available for Dumba? Could make it harder to trade him.

very few, If Vegas missed on Petro there was a shot of him going there. I know i've talked to Philly fans that would love to have Dumba even going to the point of offering Frost + ghost+ pick, however saying that there is no way with the ED looming.

I think it is a safe bet to say the plan will be to protect 8 skaters.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Shit will get real interesting if Greenway has a breakout year.

 

[chchelseII]

Our forwards suck, protect our only true asset, the defense.

 

[HotDish]

Shit will get real interesting if Greenway has a breakout year.

I had a shower thought about this the other kinda the reason why i made this thread.

If Dumba and Greenway both having good to great season and you are at the TDL knowing you might lose one do you?

1) Sell Dumba high, you'll probably get a better haul but you might have the harder time finding a partner since someone would need to protect him.
2) Sell Greenway high, the Haul might not be as much but that depends on how well he is playing. However, more teams would be interested and plus his cap hit is good so pretty much every team would call Guerin.
3) make some type of ED deal. My guess is Soucy + recent drafted prospect or higher draft pick. The danger is though Seattle would want something real nice because a emerging young talent like Greenway is extremely tempting.

I think I would lean option 1 but I can't figure out a team that has room for Dumba. If he did bounce back to being a 50ish point Dman you could expect a great haul. l would also hate to see Greenway finally hit his potential on another team. Option 3 would just the Wild's luck would of trading Khovanov + Soucy just to see Khovanov become one of their top Centres in 2 years.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Menell, Soucy or Greenway I think will be selected. I'm going to laugh if it is Rask though, because of Francis' connection to Carolina.

 

[Bazeek]

I had a shower thought about this the other kinda the reason why i made this thread.

If Dumba and Greenway both having good to great season and you are at the TDL knowing you might lose one do you?

1) Sell Dumba high, you'll probably get a better haul but you might have the harder time finding a partner since someone would need to protect him.
2) Sell Greenway high, the Haul might not be as much but that depends on how well he is playing. However, more teams would be interested and plus his cap hit is good so pretty much every team would call Guerin.
3) make some type of ED deal. My guess is Soucy + recent drafted prospect or higher draft pick. The danger is though Seattle would want something real nice because a emerging young talent like Greenway is extremely tempting.

I think I would lean option 1 but I can't figure out a team that has room for Dumba. If he did bounce back to being a 50ish point Dman you could expect a great haul. l would also hate to see Greenway finally hit his potential on another team. Option 3 would just the Wild's luck would of trading Khovanov + Soucy just to see Khovanov become one of their top Centres in 2 years.

Option 2 is probably the best bet. Because most teams will be going 7-3 more teams are likely to have a forward slot available than a defense slot, which should lead to a more competitive market. It'd be like trading a player with a 10-team clause versus trading one with a full NMC.

 

[Yeolo]

For trading whoever aI can as opposed to losing anyone but Soucy to the expansion draft.

And I would trade him too if it came down to it.

I don't care if it sets us back one year as long as we make solid investments for the future.

We will definitely have to trade on Dumba, or Greenway.

I think we need to find a way to protect Menell.

I don't think we want to work out a trade with Seattle.

 

[AKL]

Soucy is going to be exposed because we have to expose him in order to meet the criteria. If Dumba is moved, we STILL expose Soucy.

 

[Yeolo]

Could Dumba, Greenway, Soucy, and Menell be moved in a total 2-3 year down the road scenario? Not that this would happen.

Also NMC moves might be made to expose a Wild player that wouldn't be taken to protect someone else... I've seen this discussed. Would this be in play?

 

[HotDish]

Could Dumba, Greenway, Soucy, and Menell be moved in a total 2-3 year down the road scenario? Not that this would happen.

Also NMC moves might be made to expose a Wild player that wouldn't be taken to protect someone else... I've seen this discussed. Would this be in play?

Yes a player could waive their NMC in order for another player to be protected, but last ED IIRC only the Jets and Penguins had a player do this. The name slips my mind for the Jets but MAF was the one who waived for the Pens.

In our roster I don't see any of them waiving but Parise. I don't see a way Seattle would pick him.

 

[Bazeek]

Could Dumba, Greenway, Soucy, and Menell be moved in a total 2-3 year down the road scenario? Not that this would happen.

Also NMC moves might be made to expose a Wild player that wouldn't be taken to protect someone else... I've seen this discussed. Would this be in play?

I don't entirely understand the first question. Is it whether all four of those players could be traded in the next 2-3 years? If so then the answer is yes.

For the second question you're probably getting too greedy. Someone like Parise could probably be convinced to waive because his age and contract size are going to make him undesirable... but if you manage to trade off everyone so that it's a choice between him, Hunt or Rask suddenly he becomes much more appealing. And if that's going to be the case, why would he waive? Same goes for Zuccarello or (hypothetically) Suter.

At some point you have to come to terms with losing a decent player to this thing.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I don’t see a scenario where Dumba has much value at all between now and the expansion draft; maybe ever further than that. Nate Schmidt was just traded for a 3rd. The amount of teams the can and are willing to take on a long-term commitment of money and also have an available defensive slot for the ED is pretty small.

Just making a list of teams that have a spot open for the ED:
Buffalo
Boston
Chicago
Dallas
Detroit
Florida
Los Angeles
New Jersey
New York Rangers
Ottawa
Pittsburgh
Vancouver

Only about a 3rd if the league is actually in a position to add a defenseman without it costing them a good player to be exposed. Factor in which teams don’t actually need a defenseman this year and the teams that are at the cap or operating under an internal cap and your list is very small.

 

[HotDish]

I don’t see a scenario where Dumba has much value at all between now and the expansion draft; maybe ever further than that. Nate Schmidt was just traded for a 3rd. The amount of teams the can and are willing to take on a long-term commitment of money and also have an available defensive slot for the ED is pretty small.

Just making a list of teams that have a spot open for the ED:
Buffalo
Boston
Chicago
Dallas
Detroit
Florida
Los Angeles
New Jersey
New York Rangers
Ottawa
Pittsburgh
Vancouver

Only about a 3rd if the league is actually in a position to add a defenseman without it costing them a good player to be exposed. Factor in which teams don’t actually need a defenseman this year and the teams that are at the cap or operating under an internal cap and your list is very small.

I think Vegas was between a rock and hard place on that one. They needed to shed cap so dumping his for a 3rd was probably the best offer they could get while under any other year(or team) I think Schmidt would've gotten more.

 

[grN1g]

I think Vegas was between a rock and hard place on that one. They needed to shed cap so dumping his for a 3rd was probably the best offer they could get while under any other year(or team) I think Schmidt would've gotten more.

Exactly. Everyone knew they needed to shed cap immediately to get Petro signed so that automatically gave every GM way more leverage than normal and thats one of the few high contracts they could actually move asap.

They got fleeced for being so worried on getting petro and they gave him a 7 year nmc. 7 years...

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

They missed out on some value for Schmidt, but Stastny + Schmidt for Pietrangelo + Lehner is still a tremendous win for Vegas.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Exactly. Everyone knew they needed to shed cap immediately to get Petro signed so that automatically gave every GM way more leverage than normal and thats one of the few high contracts they could actually move asap.

They got fleeced for being so worried on getting petro and they gave him a 7 year nmc. 7 years...

Pretty standard for elite level free agents.

 

[Webster]

Also NMC moves might be made to expose a Wild player that wouldn't be taken to protect someone else... I've seen this discussed. Would this be in play?

What's a NMC move? Never heard of that.
A player who has this clause controls what happens, nobody else, not even the GM.

 

[HotDish]

What's a NMC move? Never heard of that.
A player who has this clause controls what happens, nobody else, not even the GM.

I think they mean a player waiving their NMC for the ED to help protect another player.

Like if the Wild know that Seattle won't take Parise, Parise could waive to help protect Greenway.

 

[Webster]

I think they mean a player waiving their NMC for the ED to help protect another player.

Like if the Wild know that Seattle won't take Parise, Parise could waive to help protect Greenway.

You think Parise wants to lose his security? What people forget is that he will immediately become exposed to trade. These days it's all about business, loyalty is gone.

To be honest, I don't even think Guerin would ask, unless he wants to build a ratship here. The initiative should come from the player, if he actually wants to waive his NMC. Until then the club should, and normally will, respect the contract.

 

[GuerinUp]

I honestly think we should keep dumba and go for option 2, of the skaters that will be exposed forwards wise i honestly wouldnt care if any of them left.

 

[HotDish]

You think Parise wants to lose his security? What people forget is that he will immediately become exposed to trade. These days it's all about business, loyalty is gone.

To be honest, I don't even think Guerin would ask, unless he wants to build a ratship here. The initiative should come from the player, if he actually wants to waive his NMC. Until then the club should, and normally will, respect the contract.

False, if a player waived their NMC for the Expansion draft they do not lose their NMC. Parise would she be protected from trades.

waiving your NMC is only effective for the ED. The moment it ends the NMC comes back into effect. It is in the rules of the expansion draft. Hence why there is a big deal with the NMC waiving deadline.

plus there is no way that Seattle would pick Parise. Waiving actually makes the Wild a better team because Seattle would be forced to pick a worse player.