Preferred Outcome for the Pens Pick

[cheechoo]

Whatever man, the measured take is that coming into the season you would have taken 14 any day of the week. I also don't think it's an absurd enough reality that that Penguins team couldn't have marched to the ECF if they snuck in and tanked that pick as well. I was hate-watching them down the stretch and they were playing at completely different pace compared to the teams they were going up against every single night.

Celebrini
Demidov
Levshunov
Parekh
Buium
Lindstrom
Silayev
Iginla
Eiserman
Dickinson
Catton
Helenius
Yakemchuk
MBN

Is 14. Getting two confirmed from that pool is a huge win.

And it's been repeated above, risers happen. Some scouts I trust have guys like Hage or Sennecke as mingling with that group above. Greentree had a monster year. Trevor Connelly will be ranging from DND to fringe top 10 on certain boards. Someone will inevitably 'fall'.

No point fretting it at this point in time.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Exactly, extremely high likely hood some team in the top 13 pick position goes “off the board” to pick someone that wasn’t projected in the top 13.

Hell someone in the top 14 could go off the board with their pick.....ha

 

[fasterthanlight]

I am rooting for a pittsburgh lottery win --- words I never thought I'd say

 

[OrrNumber4]

I am rooting for a pittsburgh lottery win --- words I never thought I'd say

Yes, means guaranteed Sharks first this year and then chance at a great pick next year.

 

[Hangemhigh]

There's always a Teemu Riihijärvi.

Professionals won't waste a pick on an unranked player.

 

[matt trick]

There does seem to be a list of 13 in the media, but a) teams have different lists b) there's almost certainly an unaccounted for riser c) we may be the team who prefers someone not in the top 13.

One of these guys could be available, but it only takes Grier having one higher than these 13 for us to walk away 'disappointed'. In 2015, I really wanted Barzal, Rantanen, or Zacha (oops!) for instance in a 'clear top 10'. Chabot, Connor, and Aho came not much later.

Tiers
1- Celebrini

2- Levshunov, Demidov, Lindstrom, Buium, Silayev, Parekh
3- Yakemchuk, Iginla, Eiserman, Catton, Dickinson, Helenius
4- Nygard, Sennecke, Jiricek

We'll be adding our 1st/2nd best and 3rd/4th best prospects in the first round either way. If Grier's can jump into his own tier 2/3 with NJs 2nd, I'm definitely supportive of that too. I want BPA, but a lot of those guys also fit needs. I'd be excited to see Eiserman/Iginla on Smith's wing, Nygard winning puck battles for the skilled forwards we'll be bringing in, or a d-man who'd likely be the best one in our system. 33 should allow for another top 5-8 prospect added to the system as well.

Let's retain #1 overall, not to mention another year or two of top 5 picks, and things start to look up.

 

[dmcccdmn]

I am rooting for a pittsburgh lottery win --- words I never thought I'd say

PIT winning the 1st lottery = Sharks picking 1OA.

PIT winning the 2nd lottery = Sharks picking 2OA

They need to win the 1st lottery.

 

[Juxtaposer]

PIT winning the 1st lottery = Sharks picking 1OA.

PIT winning the 2nd lottery = Sharks picking 2OA

They need to win the 1st lottery.

I’m no expert but I really, really don’t think that’s how that works.

 

[Erep]

I’m no expert but I really, really don’t think that’s how that works.

It actually is how it works.

Edit: Just to clarify, the Penguins can't move up more than 10 spots, so if they win the 1st overall lottery, they will not pass the Sharks, and the Sharks get 1OA. If they win the 2nd overall lottery, it means someone else won 1st and likely passed the Sharks, but Pittsburgh does not pass the Sharks for 2nd overall.

 

[Barrie22]

PIT winning the 1st lottery = Sharks picking 1OA.

PIT winning the 2nd lottery = Sharks picking 2OA

They need to win the 1st lottery.

If pit wins the lottery, all they can get up to is 4th. So any of the of the 11-1 can still win #1 by winning lottery 2.

 

[Juxtaposer]

It actually is how it works.

Edit: Just to clarify, the Penguins can't move up more than 10 spots, so if they win the 1st overall lottery, they will not pass the Sharks, and the Sharks get 1OA. If they win the 2nd overall lottery, it means someone else won 1st and likely passed the Sharks, but Pittsburgh does not pass the Sharks for 2nd overall.

Thanks for explaining—obviously if someone in the top-11 other than the Sharks win the first overall lottery, that team gets 1st overall. But the way the poster phrased it made it sound like something inherent to the Pens winning the 2nd lottery meant the Sharks automatically moved to 2nd.

 

[Erep]

If pit wins the lottery, all they can get up to is 4th. So any of the of the 11-1 can still win #1 by winning lottery 2.

Lottery 2 is not eligible to get first overall pick, even if Lottery 1 didn't actually move up to 1st overall.

 

[wishman]

Thanks for explaining—obviously if someone in the top-11 other than the Sharks win the first overall lottery, that team gets 1st overall. But the way the poster phrased it made it sound like something inherent to the Pens winning the 2nd lottery meant the Sharks automatically moved to 2nd.

Pens winning the 2nd pick lottery means Sharks pick can be no worse than #2.

 

[coooldude]

Pens winning the 2nd pick lottery means Sharks pick can be no worse than #2.

Right.

Pens or any team 12+ win the first lottery = sharks pick first and they pick their slot -10.

Any team 11 or lower wins the first lottery= they pick first. Those we know.

Then, either the sharks are picking first or they're not.

If they're not, the pens definitely didn't win the first lottery. So then the pens (or any team 13+) winning the second lottery moves them up 10 and we get that #2 spot.

therefore if the pens win either lottery, we pick no worse than 2nd. If they win the 1st lottery, we pick 1st. If they win the 2nd lottery, we pick 2nd. The same statement is true of any team 13-16. I'm pretty sure that's how it works...

obligatory F Bettman for this convoluted mess.

 

[dmcccdmn]

PIT winning the 1st lottery = Sharks picking 1OA.

PIT winning the 2nd lottery = Sharks picking 2OA

They need to win the 1st lottery.

Right.

Pens or any team 12+ win the first lottery = sharks pick first and they pick their slot -10.

Any team 11 or lower wins the first lottery= they pick first. Those we know.

Then, either the sharks are picking first or they're not.

If they're not, the pens definitely didn't win the first lottery. So then the pens (or any team 13+) winning the second lottery moves them up 10 and we get that #2 spot.

therefore if the pens win either lottery, we pick no worse than 2nd. If they win the 1st lottery, we pick 1st. If they win the 2nd lottery, we pick 2nd. The same statement is true of any team 13-16. I'm pretty sure that's how it works...

obligatory F Bettman for this convoluted mess.

I guess my post is the TLDR version of your post.

I actually like this lottery system. It's to protect the worst team and prevent a decent team from getting the top 2 picks.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Its not convoluted, the 1st lottery is for 1st overall with the caveat of only moving up 10 spots max. The second lottery is for second overall with the caveat of moving up 10 spots max

Simple

 

[Saskatoon]

So can Pens only jump up 10 spots? Like no unvierse can they jump 5 spots? Seems like weird system

 

[coooldude]

Its not convoluted, the 1st lottery is for 1st overall with the caveat of only moving up 10 spots max. The second lottery is for second overall with the caveat of moving up 10 spots max

Simple

Great, now explain the rationale for the odds for picking 1OA, and why the limit is 10 spots, and why it makes sense that you can only move up twice in five years, instead of once or three times, and why all those numbers are not 1, 2, 3, or 5 plus or minus what they are. Also why there is a lottery for 1 and 2, rather than just 1, but not 1, 2, and 3.

And now compare that to the NFL draft. Would you still say that it's not convoluted?

 

[one2gamble]

Great, now explain the rationale for the odds for picking 1OA, and why the limit is 10 spots, and why it makes sense that you can only move up twice in five years, instead of once or three times, and why all those numbers are not 1, 2, 3, or 5 plus or minus what they are. Also why there is a lottery for 1 and 2, rather than just 1, but not 1, 2, and 3.

And now compare that to the NFL draft. Would you still say that it's not convoluted?

Ill still maintain each team that finishes at the bottom of their division should get an equal shot at 1st, the only lottery should be for positions 1-4. At worst, take the bottom two of each conference and do the same.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Great, now explain the rationale for the odds for picking 1OA, and why the limit is 10 spots, and why it makes sense that you can only move up twice in five years, instead of once or three times, and why all those numbers are not 1, 2, 3, or 5 plus or minus what they are. Also why there is a lottery for 1 and 2, rather than just 1, but not 1, 2, and 3.

And now compare that to the NFL draft. Would you still say that it's not convoluted?

So now you want to change what parts you think is convoluted.

Ok, so you think the odds, IE the number of balls each team has, is convoluted?

You think that the league only allows you to win the lottery twice in 5 years is convoluted?

You think teams can only move up a max of 10 spots is convoluted?

There should be a Princess Bride gif somewhere around here

I thought it was obvious why they do those things, to not out right reward tanking as best they can and to not gift a bubble team the 1st overall on the low, but possible, chance they win a lottery

 

[Hodge]

The "two lottery wins in 5 years" rule is so unbelievably stupid that I can't believe it's real.

A rule literally only instituted to cater to GMs who never graduated high school and don't understand basic probability.

 

[coooldude]

So now you want to change what parts you think is convoluted.

Ok, so you think the odds, IE the number of balls each team has, is convoluted?

You think that the league only allows you to win the lottery twice in 5 years is convoluted?

You think teams can only move up a max of 10 spots is convoluted?

There should be a Princess Bride gif somewhere around here

I thought it was obvious why they do those things, to not out right reward tanking as best they can and to not gift a bubble team the 1st overall on the low, but possible, chance they win a lottery

The whole draft lottery process and structure is convoluted. That's my point and it was my original point. You interpreted my original jab at Bettman as only referring to the first and second lottery structure, I was jabbing at bettman at the convoluted lottery system in order to disincentivize tanking as if 1) it works in any way, 2) tanking is a problem in the first place, both of which I disagree with. My main piece of evidence being the NFL, where tanking is not a problem and a reverse standings draft works fine, induces big trades, and has not led to all the strawman outcomes that lottery apologists always cite.

So no, it is not obvious that the structure of the lottery achieves anything. Yes, it is obvious why they think it is, but it is far from obvious that it works in any way.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

Some of us are old enough to remember Pittsburgh blatantly tanking to get Mario Lemieux...Yes, tanking is an issue in the NHL.

 

[Pavelski2112]

The lottery is so unbelievably stupid that I can't believe it's real.

Ftfy

Some of us are old enough to remember Pittsburgh blatantly tanking to get Mario Lemieux...Yes, tanking is an issue in the NHL.

It's not an issue, it's required if you want to build a contender in a cap league

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

The whole draft lottery process and structure is convoluted. That's my point and it was my original point. You interpreted my original jab at Bettman as only referring to the first and second lottery structure, I was jabbing at bettman at the convoluted lottery system in order to disincentivize tanking as if 1) it works in any way, 2) tanking is a problem in the first place, both of which I disagree with. My main piece of evidence being the NFL, where tanking is not a problem and a reverse standings draft works fine, induces big trades, and has not led to all the strawman outcomes that lottery apologists always cite.

So no, it is not obvious that the structure of the lottery achieves anything. Yes, it is obvious why they think it is, but it is far from obvious that it works in any way.

Well, the 1st and 2nd lottery structure was the topic on hand and what you mentioend, so of course I responded to that part.

Does it achieve in that it discourages tanking? Probably not but they cant stop teams outright unless they do something illegal so the best they can do is to lower the chances of the tanking team to get the top pick. Tanking has definitely been a problem but its on certain years because of who the player is: Lemieux, Daigle, Lindros, McDavid

The NBA's lottery has a draw for all non playoff teams for 1st overall, then 2nd overall, then 3rd overall, then 4th overall, with no max spots to jump up. Teams were still openly tanking for Wembanyama last season despite the fact that if you are dead last you can still end up picking 5th overall

I still diasgree thats its convoluted, theres a lot of moving parts but they are easy to understand