Pre-Traverse City Top Prospect Rankings

[Leslie Treff]

As most of you know, since HF is dormant, I have moved over to New York Sportsday. I have a little more editorial freedom over there and have decided to do three rankings per year (rather than the usual two). I think that things change among prospects so often during the year that it will be more accurate that way.

My first list is out today, https://www.nysportsday.com/2016/08/31/29991/

Click to read more...

 

[Raspewtin]

Graves over Skjei is bold.

 

[Irishguy42]

Graves over Skjei is interesting, but I can see an argument being made.

I like the list otherwise.

I think Ronning was such a great pick by Clark/Gorton. I think he's going to go up the prospect rankings fast.

 

[Revel]

Happy that you regard Stromwall so highly. I've been pumped about Kovacs's teammate coming over, and it's great that someone who viewed him in person holds him in high regard. I look forward to Stromwall moving even further up your list come February.

 

[nyr2k2]

I've explained my reservations with Graves many times over. Putting him ahead of Skjei is ludicrous.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Great stuff, Leslie! Loving the fact that you have more editorial freedom. Probably won't agree with your every comment, but appreciate that you'll open up with more of them.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You are missing Huska.

 

[Irishguy42]

You are missing Huska.

If I had to choose, I would put Huska in place of Jensen.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If I had to choose, I would put Huska in place of Jensen.

I have him much higher. Probably around 7th or 8th. I think he's our second best goalie prospect.

 

[eco's bones]

I don't know if I'm ready to buy Buchnevich has played against men in the KHL as good enough reason to put him No. 1 over Vesey or Skjei.

Those three would be my top 3 though. Comparing Buchnevich to Vesey--yes Buchnevich has played against men in the KHL---but I'd add on much larger rinks and I'd also add he looked scrawny in development camp and he will be playing on smaller rinks in North America......and Vesey is not scrawny he's somewhere between 6'2 and 6'3 and over 200 lbs.--which is to say he has a much more a man's body than Buchnevich does and he's also more use to smaller rinks. I would add as well that the average college player is probably 21 or 22 anyway---maybe not fully developed physically but it's not like he's been playing against very many 18 year olds.

Generally I look at them as 1A. Buchnevich--more talented 1B. Vesey--more physically ready.

I think as well there's a decent argument to be made for Skjei as top prospect. If we're going by playing against men he beats Buchnevich.....and he is even more physically ready than Vesey. Last year 28 points in the AHL--in college he did not put up much offense and to me his game is coming together.

Graves and Shesterkin would be my 4. and 5.

The next 5--Kovacs, Paliotta (not listed), Halverson, Reunanen (I like the Sean Day pick--I think the Reunanen pick outstanding), Stromwall.

There is still a lot unknown IMO--how good Gilmour is going to be--whether or not Gettinger a huge winger with very good skating is going to take a step forward. Adam Huska to me has a lot of potential.

And then there are on the cusp pros like Jensen, Hrivik, Helberg and Clendening.

I think if I made a top 20 it would be a lot different--not saying it would be better---time will tell on that.

 

[Irishguy42]

I have him much higher. Probably around 7th or 8th. I think he's our second best goalie prospect.

I agree that he is out second best goalie prospect. I was just saying that if we had to remove someone to put Huska on the list somewhere, I'd remove Jensen.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I agree that he is out second best goalie prospect. I was just saying that if we had to remove someone to put Huska on the list somewhere, I'd remove Jensen.

I think I'd remove Ronning, Andersson or Fogarty.

 

[cwede]

after top 4 its a crap shoot,
even among the 5 goalies.

the 5 F's after Buch/Ves - Kovacs, Tambo, Gropp, Nieves, Stromwall - any one could emerge with best NHL career

on D, leaving off Gilmour seems an oversight,
and I like what they write about the Finn, if he can stay healthy
Day and Zboro, who knows , but if they both make it, could be a solid pair

 

[Irishguy42]

I think I'd remove Ronning, Andersson or Fogarty.

I'd choose one of Andersson or Fogarty. Might be because I'm high on Ronning.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

The debate between Vesey and Buch, to determine who is better is actually interesting.

Pros for Buch:
- Played pro hockey
- Was projected as a top pick but dropped, talent is there
- Is younger

Pros for Vesey:
- Already used to NA-sized rinks
- Is from the US. Speaks the language
- Is older and more mature


We won't know which one is the better prospect until we see them play for the Rangers.

 

[Matz03]

I think the top 10 is a solid choice, maybe flip Day with Tambo because Day has that upside. Thinking about it a bit and I don't mind having Graves ahead of Skjei, he does appear to have more upside while Skjei is a little vanilla with his game, Graves shot and physicality in the D zone have more appeal for me.

Bottom 10 is much less relevant for me, would agree to add Huska 11-15 and drop out Andersson. Calle needs to earn his way back on after not so great first pro season.

 

[Leslie Treff]

The fact that Palliota is missing is an oversight. I have not seen Gilmour play; i cannot rate him.

 

[GAGLine]

The fact that Palliota is missing is an oversight. I have not seen Gilmour play; i cannot rate him.

If Saarela were still in the system, where would you have placed him on this list?

 

[Leslie Treff]

If Saarela were still in the system, where would you have placed him on this list?

Either fifth or sixth. I would have to really think about it. I think his upside is higher than Kovacs.

Right now I am thinking about Paliotta, and where I would put him.

Huska was not an oversight though. I have not been as impressed with him as his numbers would indicate. Want to see him play at NCAA level before I decide whether to place him in the top 20.

 

[Leslie Treff]

I would list Paliotta after Stromwall, at 14. I would drop Andersson and keep Ronning at 20.

 

[Roo Returns]

It's all about expectations which is why a prospect like Buchnevich worries me.

Before I get tomatoes thrown my way, let me explain: I feel there's this undertone in the fanbase (not only here) where if he doesn't turn into some Russian superstar like Alexander Mogilny or Pavel Bure, he's going to get run out of town. What if he turns into let's say a Sergei Samsonov, or a 15 goal-25 assist guy who is a complimentary winger and plays 5-6 years here before being dealt. Will people be satisfied with that?

A prospect like Kovacs no one expects him to be Brad Marchand, but that's his upside. The expectations with him are he'll turn into a pain in the butt to play against, an agitator, and if he puts up 3rd line offense, that's cool, anything more is a bonus.

What if Nieves becomes Adam Oates and not Freddy Sjostrom? Is that a surprise?

Shestyorkin is expected by many to be the heir to Lundqvist (myself included). Skapkski at best a backup who can spot start here and there.

A lot of these rankings are how impactful a player could be, but if they still become a serviceable NHLer, is that acceptable by the masses?

 

[Beacon]

Leslie likes to not be too conservative and go out on the limb, which you have to respect. This time I mostly like what she did. I would drop some 2016 draftees, raise Nieves and Huska would be pretty high on my list.

Ballsy move putting Graves over Skjei, but I don't mind it. Skjei is a very safe prospect with second pair potential, but at the very least, he'll be a good third pair guy. Graves, however, has higher potential than Skjei. People assume that the odds of making the NHL track with the potential, but that's false. Graves has so many tools between his size (same as McIlrath), shot (same as the greatest NHL shooters when it comes to speed, though not as good on the release yet), skating (would be the best Rangers skater after McDonagh and Skjei despite his enormous size), willingness to learn, annual progress that you can't help but think he has first pair potential.

Comparing Graves to Skjei is like comparing Butcher to Vesey. The second guy is much safer and almost certainly going to play in the NHL as at least an average player, but the first guy may be riskier but has spectacular potential.

I'm not opposed to people ranking Graves either ahead or below Skjei, it depends on what you prefer: ceiling or safety.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

There seems to be this perception that people here think Buch is going to be a hall of famer.

I really have not seen a single person here say that.

I think that some of us eventually expect a first line forward, around the level that Stepan or Zucc have reached. Maybe a little better. Could be an all-star. There's also a chance he won't be that good, maybe he's just a fringe 1st/2nd line player. Maybe he struggles in the NHL. I really have not seen anyone say he'll be a hall of famer, but we've struggled for good prospects in recent seasons, so its not overhyping Buch when people say he's our best prospect since Alexei Cherepanov (RIP).

I think that we shouldn't temper expectations that much though. I really think people are fighting against this mythical overhyping of Buchnevich that they are tempering expectations way too much. He's a 21 year old top prospect, he should be able to produce as an NHL third line forward. If he plays, I think he will produce as a top 9 forward, but there are some really low expectations from some people. If he's getting top 9 playing time and he's not scoring at least 35-40 points this season, thats not good enough production from him. He also should be good enough to play in the NHL right now. Can you name for me any recent 21 year old very highly ranked forward prospects who weren't good enough to play in the NHL? I think he is very clearly an NHL player from the start of the season.

 

[darko]

Big call going with Graves over Skjei and when i saw the ranking i thought you weren't a believer in Skjei. Turns out you are and are just very bullish on Graves.

Entering 2018 our blue line can look like this:

McD/Skjei
Graves/McIlrath

 

[Roo Returns]

There seems to be this perception that people here think Buch is going to be a hall of famer.

I really have not seen a single person here say that.

I think that some of us eventually expect a first line forward, around the level that Stepan or Zucc have reached. Maybe a little better. Could be an all-star. There's also a chance he won't be that good, maybe he's just a fringe 1st/2nd line player. Maybe he struggles in the NHL. I really have not seen anyone say he'll be a hall of famer, but we've struggled for good prospects in recent seasons, so its not overhyping Buch when people say he's our best prospect since Alexei Cherepanov (RIP).

I think that we shouldn't temper expectations that much though. I really think people are fighting against this mythical overhyping of Buchnevich that they are tempering expectations way too much. He's a 21 year old top prospect, he should be able to produce as an NHL third line forward. If he plays, I think he will produce as a top 9 forward, but there are some really low expectations from some people. If he's getting top 9 playing time and he's not scoring at least 35-40 points this season, thats not good enough production from him. He also should be good enough to play in the NHL right now. Can you name for me any recent 21 year old very highly ranked forward prospects who weren't good enough to play in the NHL? I think he is very clearly an NHL player from the start of the season.

We're all pretty realistic on this site and get it. I just hope the fanbase beyond here can be reasonable with him especially during the first year. If he puts up 30-35 points while also getting scratched some games early in the year, I think that's realistic.