Potential new lines per Staple

[Darth Milbury]

Not true:

Even strength:
John.Tavares G:1 A:5 P:6
Kyle.Okposo G:3 A:3 P:6

Power play:
John.Tavares G:3 A:3 P:6
Kyle.Okposo G:1 A:5 P:6

Your numbers perfectly support what I wrote. Take a look at the top ten scorers. With the exception of Malkin, they all have about 75% of their goals at even strength. JT has most of his goals on the pp and both of our top two forwards get about half their points on the PP.

These are troubling stats and illustrate the problem.

 

[redbull]

Capuano is a strange one. He seems to get fixated on a couple of bad ideas and rarely sways from those decisions. Yet this year, he's flopping left and right, game by game, seemingly erratic and/or desperate. He's acting like he's on the hot seat, that's for sure.

In the lockout year it was clear-as-day how Boyes/Moulson were simply terrible on the top line. No changes were made until the 1st playoff game (removing the wrong guy, IMO) but he stuck to the exact same lines/lineup all season. He did the same thing through those horrible November slumps, just sitting back and watching failed effort after failed effort, making no changes, and saying the exact same thing in every post-game presser.

Really frustrating.

Now, this year, the Islanders are, in actuality, a very good team. Not just on paper, they really are a very solid team with top six (in the east) talent, a definite playoff team. They have the personnel, no doubt. They're healthy-enough too, no excuses.

They've not played well, of late, and had some tough losses in close games, with poor goaltending. They've been blown out once badly, with a terrible effort. The PK is the worst in hockey, seemingly every season under Capuano, yet he rolls the same guys out there time and time again. The PP, after a hot start, loses Boychuk and has looked simply awful - as has JT of late.

So there are real reasons why the Isles are struggling and much of that fall directly on Capuano. What doesn't fall on Cappy?
- JT's not played well, not on the PP, not 5on5. He's trying to do everything, staying out there too long, not generating enough offense (shots/scoring chances for himself or his linemates). SOME OF THAT is definitely related to Conacher, just a terrible fit on that top line. But in the last 3-4 games, it's JT who's not been great. Good, but we need GREAT.

- Goaltending. Not on Cappy. They have to be better.

On deHaan, he is hardly a problem. Some posters have alluded to a "slump" of some kind which is a bit much. He's been paired with Strait for the most part and GREATLY improved that bottom pairing and he's had a few lapses here and there, not anything out of the normal. We were a bit lucky last year when deHaan seemed like a perfect dman, but finishing the last 50 games on a team with no expectations is a much easier task than these early, intense battling for a long season. We'll see mistakes, from all the dmen. It happens. But deHaan's still been a solid dman this year - as good as any of the top six IMO. All have had lapses, Hickey, Hamonic and even Leddy/Boychuk.

What IS on Cappy:
- special teams. Personnel and system. Results are screaming "help me"

- in-game decisions (line matching, changing lines or roster/line-up)

- lines and ice-time distribution (The Isles need to play their best players more. They don't have four LA-like-powerlines. They have line1, clearly JT-KO who need to play 20-21min, then the next two need to play 14-15min each, line 4 the final 9-10 at MOST. PERIOD.

---
Even when JT is "slumping", he should still be out there, possible with different linemates or matched against opposing lines (in-game changes that Cap doesn't do). And Grabo, Frans, Nelson, Strome, (Bailey, Grabner - when healthy) ABSOLUTELY need to be out there more than Cizikas, Clutterbuck, Martin, CMac, etc. I like our 4th line a lot, but they play too much relative to their on-ice value.

That's on Cappy.

I don't get him.

 

[Poulin 0n My St1ck]

Crappy is daring Snow to fire him.

 

[Felix Unger]

I know I've told you this before, Dan. But, your close observations like this are pretty damn impressive.

Interesting comment.

I'd love to take credit for it, but Butch keeps on mentioning it. It has been a running theme all year long.

Tavares and Okposo's TOI are both 4 minutes more than any other forward on the team. They're 5th and 6th in the league. They're in the dubious company with Backstrom and Ovechkin, who have much the same trouble.

It's just not a good use of players to have them on the ice for 16 mpg ES, and then the rest of the forwards around 10-11.5 minutes. Especially when the rest of the forwards aren't seeing PP time.

Of the 50-52 minutes ES time per game, we should see close to 15-13-13-11 split we see on other teams.

It's also important to note that the longer shifts JT and KO have, the less opportunity they have to come hit the ice at a strategic opportunity. (e.g. when the opposition is about to get zoned in when they've been on the ice for 30+ seconds).

Lastly, the Nielsen-Grabovski pair have got to be on the ice more during even strength.

 

[BossyMVP]

Not true:

Even strength:
John.Tavares G:1 A:5 P:6
Kyle.Okposo G:3 A:3 P:6

Power play:
John.Tavares G:3 A:3 P:6
Kyle.Okposo G:1 A:5 P:6

JT has played his worst hockey in a long time in the last 4 games. Not sure if it's his linemates or if it's the fact he takes 2 minute shifts and tires out throughout the game. That line hasn't shined in awhile. It didnt help that cory was checking JT into the boards every shift either.

 

[charlie1]

That line has not been productive at even strength. All the points are on the pp. They have also been without weak defensively.

Not true:

Even strength:
John.Tavares G:1 A:5 P:6
Kyle.Okposo G:3 A:3 P:6

Power play:
John.Tavares G:3 A:3 P:6
Kyle.Okposo G:1 A:5 P:6

Your numbers perfectly support what I wrote. Take a look at the top ten scorers. With the exception of Malkin, they all have about 75% of their goals at even strength. JT has most of his goals on the pp and both of our top two forwards get about half their points on the PP.

These are troubling stats and illustrate the problem.

You wrote, "All the points are on the pp." That's not true.

 

[PK Cronin]

Capuano is a strange one. He seems to get fixated on a couple of bad ideas and rarely sways from those decisions. Yet this year, he's flopping left and right, game by game, seemingly erratic and/or desperate. He's acting like he's on the hot seat, that's for sure.

In the lockout year it was clear-as-day how Boyes/Moulson were simply terrible on the top line. No changes were made until the 1st playoff game (removing the wrong guy, IMO) but he stuck to the exact same lines/lineup all season. He did the same thing through those horrible November slumps, just sitting back and watching failed effort after failed effort, making no changes, and saying the exact same thing in every post-game presser.

Really frustrating.

Now, this year, the Islanders are, in actuality, a very good team. Not just on paper, they really are a very solid team with top six (in the east) talent, a definite playoff team. They have the personnel, no doubt. They're healthy-enough too, no excuses.

They've not played well, of late, and had some tough losses in close games, with poor goaltending. They've been blown out once badly, with a terrible effort. The PK is the worst in hockey, seemingly every season under Capuano, yet he rolls the same guys out there time and time again. The PP, after a hot start, loses Boychuk and has looked simply awful - as has JT of late.

So there are real reasons why the Isles are struggling and much of that fall directly on Capuano. What doesn't fall on Cappy?
- JT's not played well, not on the PP, not 5on5. He's trying to do everything, staying out there too long, not generating enough offense (shots/scoring chances for himself or his linemates). SOME OF THAT is definitely related to Conacher, just a terrible fit on that top line. But in the last 3-4 games, it's JT who's not been great. Good, but we need GREAT.

- Goaltending. Not on Cappy. They have to be better.

On deHaan, he is hardly a problem. Some posters have alluded to a "slump" of some kind which is a bit much. He's been paired with Strait for the most part and GREATLY improved that bottom pairing and he's had a few lapses here and there, not anything out of the normal. We were a bit lucky last year when deHaan seemed like a perfect dman, but finishing the last 50 games on a team with no expectations is a much easier task than these early, intense battling for a long season. We'll see mistakes, from all the dmen. It happens. But deHaan's still been a solid dman this year - as good as any of the top six IMO. All have had lapses, Hickey, Hamonic and even Leddy/Boychuk.

What IS on Cappy:
- special teams. Personnel and system. Results are screaming "help me"

- in-game decisions (line matching, changing lines or roster/line-up)

- lines and ice-time distribution (The Isles need to play their best players more. They don't have four LA-like-powerlines. They have line1, clearly JT-KO who need to play 20-21min, then the next two need to play 14-15min each, line 4 the final 9-10 at MOST. PERIOD.

---
Even when JT is "slumping", he should still be out there, possible with different linemates or matched against opposing lines (in-game changes that Cap doesn't do). And Grabo, Frans, Nelson, Strome, (Bailey, Grabner - when healthy) ABSOLUTELY need to be out there more than Cizikas, Clutterbuck, Martin, CMac, etc. I like our 4th line a lot, but they play too much relative to their on-ice value.

That's on Cappy.

I don't get him.

It's like we share one brain or something.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

With the coach's obsession with Conacher on LW1 as the main speedy puckcarrier designated to get into the zone Okposo's role has changed into a high rover. What makes KO -JT click is that KO enters the zone deep with the puck which keeps his legs moving and involved. It seems when KO is not in that role he loses focus and turns into floating, tentative KO of yesteryear. In trying to add speed it killed the existing chemistry of that line.

I agree with you, but I think you can go bigger picture and find fault as well. Any of those players (minus Conacher) should be able to establish the zone after entry. What I see coming through the nuetral zone, crossing the blueline... it is very predictable. There is very little east west movement. As a result it makes it easier for defenders to isolate a puck carrier. It very much feels like we are seeing Capuano's ceiling on being able to think zone entry inhibit that unit.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

Bailey is arguably as good as Nielsen on face-offs. Strome is actually pretty decent too, which is surprising given his lack of strength. Okie is good on his strong side as well. So there is a fair amount of depth there.

Grabovski is our best face-off man, and I like him with Nielsen because it gives us two options for winning faceoffs on our shutdown line (not that cappy really uses a shutdown line).

Cizikas is kinda meh on face-offs, and Nelson is just bad. He needs to work on that.

Bailey isn't here right now though. Strome is a wing in Capuano-world and likely will not be taking faceoffs (the best guy I knew who took faceoffs was built like a stick figure. I call it a natural talent. You either got it at birth or you work hard to break even.) Grabo I want to see with Tavares. He played one shift with him and it lead to a crazy good scoring chance. Can't have that in Jacques Crapeaus' ocean.

Aren't tavares and Okposo both over a point per game?

PP time. Even strength they are a net minus which means their line sucks. If you are the first line for any club you should be pulling in on average a +1 or better each game. There is this tiny little thing called DEFENCE which is kinda important to winning.

 

[kmo429]

Such a ****ing mother****ing ******** piece of **** joke.

Strome, buried on the 4th ****ing line?!?!? It's Nino ****ing Niederreiter all over again! Good God Why do you let this keep happening Garth??? Fire him?

And Brock Nelson, our 3rd best offensive player this season thus far, with Conacher and Clutterbuck??? Wtf? That is not ****ing spreading out the offense Capuano. That is WASTING TALENT.

Maybe for 3 ****ing seconds you keep Kulemin and Grabo together cause maybe they had their best seasons ever when playing together and that is what GARTH BROUGHT THEM HERE TO DO.

Jesus christ.

 

[BH4991]

Looks to me like a coach desperately trying to find a quick fix to save his job.

 

[Darth Milbury]

You wrote, "All the points are on the pp." That's not true.

So, did you think I really meant that JT and KO had ALL their points on the PP? Try not to be so literal.


JT and KO have been ineffective at even strength and are doing a disproportionate amount of their scoring on the PP. That's the point. I was too lazy to look up the exact numbers, but the analysis you presented summarizes my fears exactly.

 

[Darth Milbury]

It's like we share one brain or something.

Then the two of you combined have one more brain than Cappy does.

 

[Thatguystevie]

So, did you think I really meant that JT and KO had ALL their points on the PP? Try not to be so literal.


JT and KO have been ineffective at even strength and are doing a disproportionate amount of their scoring on the PP. That's the point. I was too lazy to look up the exact numbers, but the analysis you presented summarizes my fears exactly.

Haha, come on man. When you say they have "all their points on the PP" it should mean that at least a majority of their points have come from there. That's a pretty poor choice of words on your part. Can't really blame the other guy in this situation.

 

[Darth Milbury]

Haha, come on man. When you say they have "all their points on the PP" it should mean that at least a majority of their points have come from there. That's a pretty poor choice of words on your part. Can't really blame the other guy in this situation.

I always find debates about wording choice tedious. But, if you want to play that game, JT 3 or 4 of his goals on the PP - so that is "the majority" as you state it.

You both know what the point is, as does everybody here. Regardless of how I stated it.

The top line has essentially been ineffective at even strength. JT has 1 ES goal the entire season. I believe part of that is due to Conacher, because the line has essentially been a two man unit. But, the larger issue to me is the system.

The problem has been very apparent in the last few games, because when opposing teams manage to shut down the top PP unit, we don't score. And, with the goaltending as it is, and the defensemen making those bizarre pinches, its not hard to see why we have started losing.

The special teams are critical, of course. But, that doesn't mean you can win with your top line being ineffective at even strength.

 

[charlie1]

So, did you think I really meant that JT and KO had ALL their points on the PP? Try not to be so literal.


JT and KO have been ineffective at even strength and are doing a disproportionate amount of their scoring on the PP. That's the point. I was too lazy to look up the exact numbers, but the analysis you presented summarizes my fears exactly.

Try to be more accurate with your word choice.

 

[charlie1]

I agree that Tavares and Okposo are not playing as well as they have in the past. I also think that is not our biggest problem. It's mostly about the defense, specifically the PK, and our goaltending. Although Halak played well against SJS so that is encouraging.

 

[Darth Milbury]

Try to be more accurate with your word choice.

Well, tell you what dude, next time I you get any impression that I give a crap what you thinking about my wording choices, let me know so I can correct you. Its a freaking hockey chat board. Going around picking posts apart for word choice is just silly. This is your third post about a wording issue in this thread.

The rest of your points (which, as it turns out, are actually about HOCKEY, not vocabulary) are 100% dead-on accurate. I couldn't agree more. Yeah, JT and KO have been bad - but the REAL problem is meh goaltending, poor defense, and a horrendous PK.

The bad line combos are not helping, but you are absolutely correct (at least IMO) that the major problems are elsewhere.

I also worry about development issues. What does it do to players like Strome and Nelson to be bounced around and paired with crap linemates?

 

[bishop12]

When Grabner is back is Strome likely to be sent down?

 

[charlie1]

When Grabner is back is Strome likely to be sent down?

It's possible, since he's been relegated to the 4th line now he doesn't seem to be in the good graces of Cappy. Most likely someone else will be hurt though and it will be a non-issue.

 

[Yashin for President]

Does anyone miss Vanek yet? Isles need a true finisher that has some hockey sense playing with JT and KO. Nelson needs more reps with them before giving up with that combo. Back to Lee, Cappy needs to give him time to gel or else he will turn into a train wreck. Poor Lee keeps bouncing around, its very hard to produce with new linemates every game. If I had to put together lines, they would be something like this,

Lee-JT-KO
Grabo-Nelson-Strome (This line looked great, why mess with it!)
Kulemin-Neilson-Conacher (when Bailey is ready Conacher is done obviously)
Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck (When this line comes on they cause problems for teams)

Vis-Hickey (Not worried about these two, they have chemistry just look at last season +-)
Hammer-Dehaan (Such a great pairing, if injuries dont set them back skys the limit)
Boychuck-Leddy (Boychuck lately looking like the weak link of this pairing but hopefully it gets better)

Halak (Hopefully he can play every game like he did VS the Sharks, he was sharp that game)

PP in my opinion is getting chances and not finishing. I think Boychuck and Vis should stay together. Eventually things will get better on PP, im not worried. Too much talent not to produce.

 

[Darth Milbury]

Per Staple, Cizikas is not dressing tonight, and Strome is the 4th line center.

 

[redbull]

The rest of your points (which, as it turns out, are actually about HOCKEY, not vocabulary) are 100% dead-on accurate. I couldn't agree more. Yeah, JT and KO have been bad - but the REAL problem is meh goaltending, poor defense, and a horrendous PK.

The bad line combos are not helping, but you are absolutely correct (at least IMO) that the major problems are elsewhere.

I also worry about development issues. What does it do to players like Strome and Nelson to be bounced around and paired with crap linemates?

I think having Conacher with JT/KO is truly making them "short-handed" in the most important part of 5on5 play, especially for JT/KO, which is sustained offensive zone time, cycling, working the boards, generating offense from the zone time. Having Conacher zip back and forth around the perimeter, running INTO JT/KO more often than not, not even knowing how to cycle or sustain pressure - that's a KILLER for Tavares. Tavares is NOT an "off-the-rush" player and nor are the Isles than kind of team (with Grabner being the exception. To a lesser extent, Grabovski)

A coach that doesn't recognize that is baffling to me. It's so incredibly clear. But this is the same coach who refused to see how Boyes/Moulson were killing that top line either. So anything's possible.

On Strome/Nelson, I agree, jerking them around (positions, linemates) is just setting them up to fail. I think Strome is a natural and PURE centre. It's the type of game he plays and where he's valuable. Nelson could play either, as can Grabovski, so I don't care as much where they play but erring on the side of more-talented-linemates vs. ideal-position is probably the smarter move.

Not sure if the coaching staff shares that sentiment.

It's an odd strategy. Having a young, offensive player outside an offensive role, with two plumbers makes zero sense. Both Nelson and Strome are being waster on the bottom six, putting them in a position to fail offensively AND defensively. But this is the same coach who played Lee-Nelson-Strome together earlier in the year, and they looked really good at times.

Why not have
Nelson - Strome - Clutterbuck (play 10-12 min)
Boulton - Conacher - Martin (play 4-6 min)

even that makes a lot more sense.

The Ducks are scary-good and a huge team. I think they are the best team in the NHL this season. Strome and Nelson will not have fun and this is one game I would definitely NOT have Boulton make his debut. Ridiculous.

Then the two of you combined have one more brain than Cappy does.

well, there's an back-asswards compliment!

 

[Yashin for President]

I think having Conacher with JT/KO is truly making them "short-handed" in the most important part of 5on5 play, especially for JT/KO, which is sustained offensive zone time, cycling, working the boards, generating offense from the zone time. Having Conacher zip back and forth around the perimeter, running INTO JT/KO more often than not, not even knowing how to cycle or sustain pressure - that's a KILLER for Tavares. Tavares is NOT an "off-the-rush" player and nor are the Isles than kind of team (with Grabner being the exception. To a lesser extent, Grabovski)

A coach that doesn't recognize that is baffling to me. It's so incredibly clear. But this is the same coach who refused to see how Boyes/Moulson were killing that top line either. So anything's possible.

On Strome/Nelson, I agree, jerking them around (positions, linemates) is just setting them up to fail. I think Strome is a natural and PURE centre. It's the type of game he plays and where he's valuable. Nelson could play either, as can Grabovski, so I don't care as much where they play but erring on the side of more-talented-linemates vs. ideal-position is probably the smarter move.

Not sure if the coaching staff shares that sentiment.

It's an odd strategy. Having a young, offensive player outside an offensive role, with two plumbers makes zero sense. Both Nelson and Strome are being waster on the bottom six, putting them in a position to fail offensively AND defensively. But this is the same coach who played Lee-Nelson-Strome together earlier in the year, and they looked really good at times.

Why not have
Nelson - Strome - Clutterbuck (play 10-12 min)
Boulton - Conacher - Martin (play 4-6 min)

even that makes a lot more sense.

The Ducks are scary-good and a huge team. I think they are the best team in the NHL this season. Strome and Nelson will not have fun and this is one game I would definitely NOT have Boulton make his debut. Ridiculous.





well, there's an back-asswards compliment!

I respectfully disagree here. Strome looks much better on the wing. He is too small to be an NHL center. If you noticed during the Sharks game he was overwhelmed with the defensive responsibilities at center. Strome is an offensive speedster that should be scoring goals and creating offensive opportunities not a two way center. Strome and Nelson need to stick together with Nelson playing center.

 

[FirewagonChange]

5th line

Capuano-Wang-Snow