Speculation: Potential destinations for Grubauer?

[StephenPeat]

You don't hurt your team in 76-77 games per season to help your team against the 5-6 you play against one division rival. You take the best return for the player.

Maybe YOU don’t but NHL GMs? Vancouver absolutely did with Schneider and LA most likely did with Jones as well. What you don’t do is trade a valued commodity to a Division rival for a POOR RETURN under ANY circumstances.

 

[Larkin1578]

Which teams might take a stab at trading for him?

I would love for the Wings to trade for him and try to trade Howard at the deadline.

 

[Hivemind]

Carolina has half a dozen forwards age 19-22 that are close to NHL ready and could provide ELC secondary scoring for Washington.

Valentin Zykov, Warren Foegele, Aleksi Saarela, Lucas Wallmark, Janne Kuokkanen, Julien Gauthier, Nic Roy, Morgan Geekie, Stelio Matteos, etc.

Given the additions of Svechnikov, Necas, and Zykov (one I’d like to keep) the Canes can’t afford to roster too many more of these guys in the short-term. I’m not sure that the Canes see Grubauer as the answer but I think they have the ammunition.

None of those guys move the needle for me, at all. Especially not when compared to getting a mid-1st from other suitors. And I say this as someone who has followed Zykov closely because I own him on my dynasty team.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Reminds me a lot of Rangers fans regarding Talbot in the 2015 offseason. A backup goalie with impressive stats behind the established starter, who the team seemed destined to trade while their value was high.

They wanted to sell a backup for high value, Edmonton needed a goalie (especially getting McDavid with the 1st pick which transformed the entire culture of the team) and had 16th overall later on, not necessarily needing it.

Rangers fans convinced themselves Talbot for 16th overall was happening, all the way up until the draft when Bettman announced "The Edmonton Oilers have traded 16th overall to the New York... ... ... ... ... Islanders for Griffin Reinhart".

Talbot, of course, still ended up being traded to the Oilers for a 2nd, a 3rd, and a swap of 7th rounders. Even though the Rangers fans had decided amongst themselves that 16th overall was the most likely return.

A year ago you were arguing until you were blue in the face that Greiss was a better goalie than Grubauer, so I caution anyone taking your goalie analysis serious.

goalies on strong teams don't always translate into starters, that's why. Greiss has proven himself to be a legit starting NHL goalie capable of carrying a team to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Grubauer played his first NHL game in the 12-13 season and hasn't started more than 23 games in any NHL season. The starting job is clearly Holtby's and there's no Fleury/Murray or Luongo/Schneider push from the backup to usurp that starting spot.

So for the Isles to give up on what's essentially a sure thing, a goalie we know is capable of winning us games, for what? Jonny Bernier 2.0? We don't need 8 solid years out of Greiss, just enough time to hold down the fort until hopefully Sorokin or Soderstrom are ready. If all our goalie prospects bust like Poulin/Nilsson/Koskinen did, oh well, we trade a 3rd for that years Bishop/Darling, super reasonable prices for veteran goalies.

I'm still waiting to hear the team that's gonna give up a 1st round pick for Grabauer

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/nyi-calgary-washington.2356159/page-3


I can't wait for your first round pick.

 

[Hivemind]

Maybe YOU don’t but NHL GMs? Vancouver absolutely did with Schneider and LA most likely did with Jones as well. What you don’t do is trade a valued commodity to a Division rival for a POOR RETURN under ANY circumstances.

The Capitals made a roster trade with a division rival in July 2017.

 

[Leviathan]

1. Islanders
2. Hurricanes
3. Red Wings

other maybes/longshots - Avalanche, Canucks, Sabres, Senators, Blues

 

[StephenPeat]

He has like fifteen career wins and lost his spot in the playoffs after two games a month ago. In what world is he on Cory Schneider’s level when he was traded to the Devils in 2013?

I want him by the way, but at a reasonable cost. 12th pick my ass...

Give or take 30 but hey when your an Isles fan why count wins, God knows I wouldn’t. Oh yeah he’s on Schneider’s level because all his stats say he’s in that tier, that’s why.

 

[GoldiFox]

None of those guys move the needle for me, at all. Especially not when compared to getting a mid-1st from other suitors. And I say this as someone who has followed Zykov closely because I own him on my dynasty team.

If I was Washington and I could get a mid 1st for one year of Grubauer then I would jump on that. Maybe Lou will be desperate enough. In my view the Canes aren’t desperate enough to pay that kind of value for the next “best backup”. They have been burned by that too many times recently.

 

[StephenPeat]

Reminds me a lot of Rangers fans regarding Talbot in the 2015 offseason. A backup goalie with impressive stats behind the established starter, who the team seemed destined to trade while their value was high.

They wanted to sell a backup for high value, Edmonton needed a goalie (especially getting McDavid with the 1st pick which transformed the entire culture of the team) and had 16th overall later on, not necessarily needing it.

Rangers fans convinced themselves Talbot for 16th overall was happening, all the way up until the draft when Bettman announced "The Edmonton Oilers have traded 16th overall to the New York... ... ... ... ... Islanders for Griffin Reinhart".

Talbot, of course, still ended up being traded to the Oilers for a 2nd, a 3rd, and a swap of 7th rounders. Even though the Rangers fans had decided amongst themselves that 16th overall was the most likely return.

Slight difference. Talbot was a pending-UFA. If the Rangers didn’t trade him they would have lost him for nothing. Grubauer is an RFA and the Capitals still have quite a bit of say in where he plays.

 

[Hivemind]

Obviously that’s an ideal return for Washington but what makes you think Grubauer is worth the 12th overall pick?

Martin Jones, Cory Schneider, Semyon Varlamov, and Frederik Andersen setting the ballpark in the range of a mid-1st. If the Islanders aren't willing to pay the 12th, the Capitals can easily turn to the Flyers, Senators, Blues, or Red Wings, or Sabres to outbid pick #41.


As for your next post, Grubauer had 15 wins this year alone (not in his career). He has 43 on his career, but wins are a pretty garbage stat to evaluate a goalie with anyway. He was absolutely phenomenal for the Capitals down the stretch in the regular season, with a ludicrous .937sv% and 1.93GAA from December onwards. That's on top of very good career numbers (.920 or higher sv% in three of four seasons, with the low bar being .918). He also had a very impressive .679 quality start%, 3rd among all goalies with 30+GP (Pekka Rinne was at .678) and has a .620 QS% on his career.

 

[CodeE]

A year ago you were arguing until you were blue in the face that Greiss was a better goalie than Grubauer, so I caution anyone taking your goalie analysis serious.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/nyi-calgary-washington.2356159/page-3


I can't wait for your first round pick.

Yeah, a year ago. You got me, Thomas Greiss was a better goalie last year than he was this year!

I also said, "oh well, we'd trade a 3rd for that year's Darling". Scott Darling, the former Chicago Blackhawks backup who was the belle of the ball last offseason for all teams needing goalies. None of whom were the Islanders who - tragically enough - had the faith in the 2016-17 season of Thomas Greiss that I did. Darling's trade value now? Not so good.

I hope Lou is smart enough to not overpay for a "good stats" backup, but it seems the hockey community has designated Grabauer the best goalie option this offseason, so maybe you will just get a 1st from the hype.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Yeah, a year ago. You got me, Thomas Greiss was a better goalie last year than he was this year!

I also said, "oh well, we'd trade a 3rd for that year's Darling". Scott Darling, the former Chicago Blackhawks backup who was the belle of the ball last offseason for all teams needing goalies. None of whom were the Islanders who - tragically enough - had the faith in the 2016-17 season of Thomas Greiss that I did. Darling's trade value now? Not so good.

I hope Lou is smart enough to not overpay for a "good stats" backup, but it seems the hockey community has designated Grabauer the best goalie option this offseason, so maybe you will just get a 1st from the hype.

It's cute you're clinging to the "good stats" back up narrative even though he was the SC Champion's #1 for the last part of the season and performed so well they played him as the hot hand for the first two games. And before you toss off the "well he lost both those games"... both of those games went to OT.


Again, its real cute.

 

[CodeE]

Slight difference. Talbot was a pending-UFA. If the Rangers didn’t trade him they would have lost him for nothing. Grubauer is an RFA and the Capitals still have quite a bit of say in where he plays.

If Rangers didn't trade Talbot at the draft, they could have kept him during the season and either waited for a team to panic or moved him at the deadline.

As a RFA, Grabauer is free to sign an offer sheet with a team who'll give him $$$ and a starting job. Read OP's tweet again:

MacLellan said Grubauer wants to be a No. 1 goaltender. He’d like to keep him and Holtby, but he’s going to explore a trade for Grubauer to do his thing.

The option of "nobody is giving us a 1st round pick! You'll backup Holtby until we get offered one and don't you dare dream of signing an offer sheet bud!" simply isn't on the table. You'll get the best offer another team is willing to give you, but if you're willing to take a worse return for that "quite a bit of say where he plays", go ahead.

 

[Hivemind]

There hasn't been a signed offer sheet since 2013...

 

[CodeE]

GMs are smart enough to address the issue before the signing of an offer sheet becomes necessary. Washington doesn't want him to sign an offer sheet for a 2019 2nd, so get better value for him before then.

Just some Capital fans have this "all of you come back to us when you're ready to overpay for Grabauer" attitude which is just a fantasy considering the circumstances. Again, you'll get the best offer another team is willing to give you.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Grubauer


28OA (WPG's 1st)




Greiss


Allen

Washington gets their 1st and sends Grubauer out of the division. St. Louis gets a new look in net and shaves 1 year and ~$1 mil per from their cap. The Islanders buy low on Allen at no acquisition cost and shed Greiss’ contract.

?

 

[Hivemind]

GMs are smart enough to address the issue before the signing of an offer sheet becomes necessary. Washington doesn't want him to sign an offer sheet for a 2019 2nd, so get better value for him before then.

Just some Capital fans have this "all of you come back to us when you're ready to overpay for Grabauer" attitude which is just a fantasy considering the circumstances. Again, you'll get the best offer another team is willing to give you.

It's not overpayment. It's value pretty much in line with what similar goaltenders have received in past years (Andersen, Jones, Schneider, Varlamov, even Lehner). There are multiple teams with picks in this range looking for goaltending. If the Islanders aren't willing to give up the 12th pick, that's fine (the 12th is on the upper end of the range of what would be reasonable to pay for Grubby), but don't think that the Capitals would then be obligated to take the #41 from the Islanders. The Capitals can easily turn to Philadelphia (14, 19), Ottawa (22), St Louis (29), Detroit (30, 33, 36), and Buffalo (32) to see what they would offer.

The only "fantasy" here is that the Islanders will be able to land Grubauer for less than the #12. If the Islanders don't want to give up pick #12, they aren't likely to be the winner of the Grubauer sweepstakes. Not hard to understand.

 

[GoCaps2004]

He has like fifteen career wins and lost his spot in the playoffs after two games a month ago. In what world is he on Cory Schneider’s level when he was traded to the Devils in 2013?

I want him by the way, but at a reasonable cost. 12th pick my ass...

43 wins, and 1-1 in all time in playoffs, while losing his spot this year to the 2017 Vezina trophy winner, but who cares about actual numbers anyway!

 

[Kevin27NYI]

Give or take 30 but hey when your an Isles fan why count wins, God knows I wouldn’t. Oh yeah he’s on Schneider’s level because all his stats say he’s in that tier, that’s why.

Oh my god you're so lame

Martin Jones, Cory Schneider, Semyon Varlamov, and Frederik Andersen setting the ballpark in the range of a mid-1st. If the Islanders aren't willing to pay the 12th, the Capitals can easily turn to the Flyers, Senators, Blues, or Red Wings, or Sabres to outbid pick #41.

That's fine, trade him to them. I don't think he's worth the 11th or 12th. Kudos to the Caps if they can corner this lack of goalie market but I'd rather shop for Howard then and wait for Sorokin.

 

[CodeE]

It's not overpayment. It's value pretty much in line with what similar goaltenders have received in past years (Andersen, Jones, Schneider, Varlamov, even Lehner). There are multiple teams with picks in this range looking for goaltending. If the Islanders aren't willing to give up the 12th pick, that's fine (the 12th is on the upper end of the range of what would be reasonable to pay for Grubby), but don't think that the Capitals would then be obligated to take the #41 from the Islanders. The Capitals can easily turn to Philadelphia (14, 19), Ottawa (22), St Louis (29), Detroit (30, 33, 36), and Buffalo (32) to see what they would offer.

The only "fantasy" here is that the Islanders will be able to land Grubauer for less than the #12. If the Islanders don't want to give up pick #12, they aren't likely to be the winner of the Grubauer sweepstakes. Not hard to understand.

Yup, that's the way it seems to goes in these Grabauer threads. The Capitals will "easily turn" to 36th overall from Detroit, because anything we add to 41st overall simply won't be enough.

12th overall, anything less than that is a complete fantasy, because that 41st overall is expired dog food compared to the filet mingnon that is the magnificent 36th overall.

 

[StreetHawk]

If Rangers didn't trade Talbot at the draft, they could have kept him during the season and either waited for a team to panic or moved him at the deadline.

As a RFA, Grabauer is free to sign an offer sheet with a team who'll give him $$$ and a starting job. Read OP's tweet again:



The option of "nobody is giving us a 1st round pick! You'll backup Holtby until we get offered one and don't you dare dream of signing an offer sheet bud!" simply isn't on the table. You'll get the best offer another team is willing to give you, but if you're willing to take a worse return for that "quite a bit of say where he plays", go ahead.

An offer sheet of almost Darling money of over $4 million is a 2019 2nd round pick. No way Caps can afford to match that. They would have to let him walk.

That's the bar that the Caps have. They have to get Carlson, then Wilson signed. They may opt to package Orpik with Grubs and end up with a 3rd round pick to free up the cap space to sign the guys that they want like Kepney.

No team holding a 1st round pick from #20 onward is in need of a goalie immediately.

Ana/SJ/Det
Chi/Win/Min
NYR/NYR/Tor
Ott/Was/Cbs

Maybe Detroit in that group. But, they have Howard on the books, so they don't absolutely need to make that move.

 

[Langway]

None of those guys move the needle for me, at all. Especially not when compared to getting a mid-1st from other suitors. And I say this as someone who has followed Zykov closely because I own him on my dynasty team.

Kuokkanen or Foegele could be interesting along with the 42nd pick. A mid-to-late first rounder would top that but we'll see if they can get it. I expect at least something along the lines of a pick between 32-45 and a decent prospect. An issue for the in-division teams may be if a team like Dallas offers the 44th pick and a prospect like Hintz or younger roster player like Elie. If the offers are relatively close on that level then I'd figure they'd just move him out West. He'll move at the draft regardless IMO but the Caps won't be without leverage if there really are between three and five teams seriously interested.

 

[SI90]

Grubauer


28OA (WPG's 1st)




Greiss


Allen

Washington gets their 1st and sends Grubauer out of the division. St. Louis gets a new look in net and shaves 1 year and ~$1 mil per from their cap. The Islanders buy low on Allen at no acquisition cost and shed Greiss’ contract.

?

Values don’t seem bad but I’m not high on Allen as an islanders fan.

 

[StephenPeat]

If Rangers didn't trade Talbot at the draft, they could have kept him during the season and either waited for a team to panic or moved him at the deadline.

As a RFA, Grabauer is free to sign an offer sheet with a team who'll give him $$$ and a starting job. Read OP's tweet again:



The option of "nobody is giving us a 1st round pick! You'll backup Holtby until we get offered one and don't you dare dream of signing an offer sheet bud!" simply isn't on the table. You'll get the best offer another team is willing to give you, but if you're willing to take a worse return for that "quite a bit of say where he plays", go ahead.

Again, I’m begging you to hold your breath until someone Offersheets.....well anyone this offseason.

 

[StephenPeat]

Grubauer


28OA (WPG's 1st)




Greiss


Allen

Washington gets their 1st and sends Grubauer out of the division. St. Louis gets a new look in net and shaves 1 year and ~$1 mil per from their cap. The Islanders buy low on Allen at no acquisition cost and shed Greiss’ contract.

?

Im not sure StL would do #2. At this point Allen, for all his gaffes, is far better than Greiss and he’s only signed for ~$1M more and 1 Season more than Greiss.