Post-Lottery 2018 Mock Draft, Devils-centric

[Japam]

17 NEW JERSEY DEVILS LD K'Andre Miller I know, I know. I keep saying it. But to me, Miller's upside is greater than top-10 candidates Bouchard, Dobson and Wilde -- and if he puts it all together he could be on par with or better than Boqvist/Hughes/Smith. Why? He is an outstanding skater, just an off-the-charts athlete. He can be ferociously physical with a huge hit in his own zone and then lead a dynamic rush in the offensive zone on the very same play. He's a big kid with a big heart and he's extremely smart. Most of the shortcomings in his came are a direct result of having only moved back from the wing a few seasons ago. With good coaching/development, I think K'Andre Miller has superstar, first-pairing upside -- a kid who can be a physical, shut-down guy in his own zone while scoring 50 points per year. As we all know, players like this are rare.

As always, appreciate your in depth analysis every year. Anyway, from what you've seen/know of Miller, and what you've seen/know of the Devils coaching staffs across the board (minors/pro), do you think this is a team with the current personnel that could help him develop his game at D more, or will he suffer here?

 

[Cheddabombs]

Miller definitely interests me. A forward turned defenseman makes me a little cautious though. I remember having hope for Myles Bell after he showed some promise going from forward to defenseman. But didn't he also have some personal stuff?

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Miller definitely interests me. A forward turned defenseman makes me a little cautious though. I remember having hope for Myles Bell after he showed some promise going from forward to defenseman. But didn't he also have some personal stuff?

Bell's girlfriend died when he flipped his car.

 

[Nubmer6]

Miller definitely interests me. A forward turned defenseman makes me a little cautious though. I remember having hope for Myles Bell after he showed some promise going from forward to defenseman. But didn't he also have some personal stuff?

Was the the one who was diagnosed with Grave's Disease or some other chronic disorder like that?

 

[MichaelJ]

Miller definitely interests me. A forward turned defenseman makes me a little cautious though. I remember having hope for Myles Bell after he showed some promise going from forward to defenseman. But didn't he also have some personal stuff?

I think Bell had substance abuse issues?

With Miller, he’s the type of upside risk player I’d want with a second 1st rounder or even a 2nd rd pick after selecting someone considered a bit less of a project. That’s why I’m hoping for Alexeyev. STI has them as similar players but Miller rated a bit above. I like Alexeyev for all of the reasons STI pointed out, but, it’s just personal preference and I’m just a bit more conservative when it comes to risk. Whatever happens, I’ll obviously defer to our scouting staff and support whomever the Devils pick.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Was the the one who was diagnosed with Grave's Disease or some other chronic disorder like that?

That was Graham Black.

 

[Smitty426]

As always, appreciate your in depth analysis every year. Anyway, from what you've seen/know of Miller, and what you've seen/know of the Devils coaching staffs across the board (minors/pro), do you think this is a team with the current personnel that could help him develop his game at D more, or will he suffer here?

Could always add Special Assignment coach Scotty Stevens!

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

It’s more about McLeod’s post-draft performance. He’s been pretty disappointing relative to the expectations. He was expected to dominate in junior this year and his production in Mississauga actually dropped from his draft +1 year. Say what you want about his injury to start the season, but that’s concerning. Not a great development trajectory. I get that he’s a phenomenal skater and looks the part, but that only goes so far. Stagnant/regressing production and lack of development is a giant red flag.

What were you expecting out of McLeod?

He was never labeled as pure offensive point producer and he just came off a serious knee injury. The fact that he was able to maintain over a PPG despite the fact that they lost Nylander isn't anything to be disappointed about IMO.

He was a beast in the playoffs, again, so that's a promising sign.

 

[Triumph]

Miller definitely interests me. A forward turned defenseman makes me a little cautious though. I remember having hope for Myles Bell after he showed some promise going from forward to defenseman. But didn't he also have some personal stuff?

Bell went in the other direction - he was a defenseman converted to forward.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Miller scares me. Seems very boom or bust.

As explained, I don't think Miller has a lot of bust potential. A 'boom/bust' by definition would be a guy like Kupari or Merkley -- players with enormous upside who several teams will avoid due to perceived red flags in their game or personality.

In Miller's case, there is of course no guarantee he will ever reach what I am perceiving his upside to be. I see him as a kid who could one day provide a physical force, who can skate with and shut down top-end opponents, and then who can provide very good offense and lead the rush. That's his 'ceiling', if you will.

What's his 'floor'? I think, at the very least, Miller would project to be a third-pairing defender with size and mobility who could lay a big hit and put up a few points.

Most players, of course, wind up somewhere between their ceiling and their floor. It's just my opinion that good GMs draft for ceiling. The exception, of course, would be a kid like Merkley who, although he has a tremendous ceiling (Erik Karlsson-lite), has a floor which would be tantamount to never making the NHL whatsoever.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If Miller is the pick you don’t think the Devils could do the same and drop a few spots and still grab him? I don’t feel like I’ve seen him that often named as even a pick in the early 20s. He might be raising at the moment but just an opinion.

I think the immense upside of Bode Wilde and K'Andre Miller make them both wild cards. Either could be gone by #12 or last until the mid-20s. I study GMs and organizational tendencies, but I don't interview them, and even if I did, they all tend to keep their draft cards pretty close to the vest (except Jim Benning, ha).

If Shero and Castron felt that they could trade down into the early 20s and still have a shot at either Miller or Alexeyev to fill the organizational hole at LD, I'd be fine with it. Maybe they could recoup their lost second round pick in the process.

But, as I've stated before, I think Miller has some late helium. His excellent play at the 5-Nations tourney and the IIHF has done nothing but reinforce that. His learning curve this year has been impressively steep. He has soared up many ranking boards, such as McKeens (16), LastWordOnSports (25), Future Considerations (26) and TheDraftAnalyst (24). I expect K'Andre to hit several top-20s by draft day in June.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This is some good stuff here, nice job OP.

I will say though the Caps are loaded with D prospects so I would put money on them taking a winger.

I am surprised the Sens are keeping that 4th, they will be bad next season so why not roll the dice on 2019 and Hughes?

It's not my place to slag the Caps (I'm a huge fan of Ovechkin, Carlson and Holtby), but I can't say with any confidence that they're loaded with ANY kind of prospects. I like Bowey and Johansen, but I don't see either of them as top-pairing defensemen. I agree they need even more help in the prospect pipeline at F.

As for Ottawa, I have to say that Pierre Dorion may be the worst GM in the NHL, and thus has no idea what he has. The Matt Duchene trade is one of the worst deals of the 21st century -- how could a team in need of a rebuild give up such a huge amount of future assets to turn a very good second line center (Turris) into a very good second line center (Duchene)? It made no sense, like many of Dorion's moves. The Phaneuf trade was just abominable. I think Dorion thinks the Senators will be good in 2018-19. He's wrong.

 

[markog]

Colorado might have 2 top 10 picks next year, I doubt they'll stay in the PO (sadly the same will probably happen to NJ).

 

[Devils Dominion]

Colorado might have 2 top 10 picks next year, I doubt they'll stay in the PO (sadly the same will probably happen to NJ).

You're already saying we don't make the playoffs next season??

 

[Sam Spade]

It's not my place to slag the Caps (I'm a huge fan of Ovechkin, Carlson and Holtby), but I can't say with any confidence that they're loaded with ANY kind of prospects. I like Bowey and Johansen, but I don't see either of them as top-pairing defensemen. I agree they need even more help in the prospect pipeline at F.

As for Ottawa, I have to say that Pierre Dorion may be the worst GM in the NHL, and thus has no idea what he has. The Matt Duchene trade is one of the worst deals of the 21st century -- how could a team in need of a rebuild give up such a huge amount of future assets to turn a very good second line center (Turris) into a very good second line center (Duchene)? It made no sense, like many of Dorion's moves. The Phaneuf trade was just abominable. I think Dorion thinks the Senators will be good in 2018-19. He's wrong.

Yep, and the next two years are bringing Crosby/McD lite type players in Hughes and Lafrenierre. If I'm going full tank it was/is in one of these three seasons, '18, '19, or '20.

As to the Caps, I have come to a conclusion lately that you don't need a stud D to be successful you need competent players defensively who can move the puck, think Pittsburgh. While having the D core of the Preds would great, it's hard to manage cap wise. So with the Capitals having Djoos, Bowey, Hobbs, Seigenthaler, Johannson, plus Orlov and Niskanen and hopefully a re-signed Kempney, they can easily survive with that in the foreseeable future (assuming they loss Carlson).

I follow prospects closely for all the Metro teams and all I can say is Metro teams better get their houses in order because the Devils and Flyers are coming.

p.s. I have a sneaking suspicion Carlson lands in NJ this summer.

 

[markog]

You're already saying we don't make the playoffs next season??

Thats my prediction as of now, a lot will still happen with signings, trades... until october but as of now I don't see them getting in.

 

[Nocashstyle]

As explained, I don't think Miller has a lot of bust potential. A 'boom/bust' by definition would be a guy like Kupari or Merkley -- players with enormous upside who several teams will avoid due to perceived red flags in their game or personality.

In Miller's case, there is of course no guarantee he will ever reach what I am perceiving his upside to be. I see him as a kid who could one day provide a physical force, who can skate with and shut down top-end opponents, and then who can provide very good offense and lead the rush. That's his 'ceiling', if you will.

What's his 'floor'? I think, at the very least, Miller would project to be a third-pairing defender with size and mobility who could lay a big hit and put up a few points.

Most players, of course, wind up somewhere between their ceiling and their floor. It's just my opinion that good GMs draft for ceiling. The exception, of course, would be a kid like Merkley who, although he has a tremendous ceiling (Erik Karlsson-lite), has a floor which would be tantamount to never making the NHL whatsoever.

Thanks for the insight. Like most posters on here, I'm purely basing my thoughts on what I've read and a couple clips. If the Devils do go with Miller, it would definitely give me a little more comfort hearing the praise coming from you since you clearly are more knowledgeable about these prospects than almost anyone on this site.

I know you've heard it before, but thank you for the indepth analysis you provide! I always look forward to your posts this time of year.

 

[Nubmer6]

You're already saying we don't make the playoffs next season??

Frankly, not to be too pessimistic, but it's definitely questionable.

We can't count on Hall having another MVP year, and without that we would have never made it this year. We have to keep progressing and get him some help, and hope we don't hit many sophomore slumps in Hischier, Butcher, or Bratt. The goalies have to step back up, and we have to find a way to solidify our D. We were lucky our D was by and large healthy this year. A few more injuries and we probably would have been in big trouble.

Having Johansson, Zajac, and Palmieri healthy for the whole season would definitely help, but I wouldn't feel confident about making it again unless we got one of the big names (Tavares, Carlson).

 

[StevenToddIves]

As always, appreciate your in depth analysis every year. Anyway, from what you've seen/know of Miller, and what you've seen/know of the Devils coaching staffs across the board (minors/pro), do you think this is a team with the current personnel that could help him develop his game at D more, or will he suffer here?

K'Andre is going to a very good program at the University of Wisconsin next season, and I expect his development to continue its steep climb under a fantastic coach in Tony Granato. I think it's a good bet that we will see Miller play a major role on Team USA in the WJC in December.

This is all opinion, but I would say that with good development, Miller would need two years in the NCAA and one in the AHL before making the NHL. But again, I absolutely think he can develop into a bona fide, two-way top-pairing guy.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Colorado might have 2 top 10 picks next year, I doubt they'll stay in the PO (sadly the same will probably happen to NJ).

I do not think the Devils will win the Stanley Cup just yet. That being said, I think the additions of Anderson and McLeod will greatly boost the secondary offense, and I firmly believe that Nico takes a big jump forward into the 70+ point range. If Shero could somehow get a 20+ minute stud defenseman (John Carlson?) the Devils could potentially make a run in the post-season. There's no need for such pessimism at this stage.

 

[nugg]

It's not my place to slag the Caps (I'm a huge fan of Ovechkin, Carlson and Holtby), but I can't say with any confidence that they're loaded with ANY kind of prospects. I like Bowey and Johansen, but I don't see either of them as top-pairing defensemen. I agree they need even more help in the prospect pipeline at F.

As for Ottawa, I have to say that Pierre Dorion may be the worst GM in the NHL, and thus has no idea what he has. The Matt Duchene trade is one of the worst deals of the 21st century -- how could a team in need of a rebuild give up such a huge amount of future assets to turn a very good second line center (Turris) into a very good second line center (Duchene)? It made no sense, like many of Dorion's moves. The Phaneuf trade was just abominable. I think Dorion thinks the Senators will be good in 2018-19. He's wrong.

It sounds like Ray should go after EK then!

 

[StevenToddIves]

Yep, and the next two years are bringing Crosby/McD lite type players in Hughes and Lafrenierre. If I'm going full tank it was/is in one of these three seasons, '18, '19, or '20.

As to the Caps, I have come to a conclusion lately that you don't need a stud D to be successful you need competent players defensively who can move the puck, think Pittsburgh. While having the D core of the Preds would great, it's hard to manage cap wise. So with the Capitals having Djoos, Bowey, Hobbs, Seigenthaler, Johannson, plus Orlov and Niskanen and hopefully a re-signed Kempney, they can easily survive with that in the foreseeable future (assuming they loss Carlson).

I follow prospects closely for all the Metro teams and all I can say is Metro teams better get their houses in order because the Devils and Flyers are coming.

p.s. I have a sneaking suspicion Carlson lands in NJ this summer.

I agree with some of your sentiment, but that Caps future blueline you just mentioned will not exactly strike fear in the hearts of Metropolitan Division forward groups. As for the Predators, Nashville GM David Poile (one of the best in the biz) has managed the salary cap better than anyone. They have the entire defense coming back next year except for Alexi Emelin. The only major player on the team who needs to be re-signed in the next TWO YEARS is Ryan Ellis. I'd say they are in pretty good shape to take runs at the cup for at least the next four seasons.

 

[StevenToddIves]

It sounds like Ray should go after EK then!

The price for Karlsson will be untenable. I think Shero has a great plan in place, the Devils (and all of us) just need to stick with it. Why mortgage a future which is so bright?

 

[OmNomNom]

Av's will make playoffs again next year. with a healthier varlamov, and jost, kerfoot, and rantanen being a year older, along with makar coming up, they'll be fine.

 

[Devils Dominion]

COL will prob take Miller just like they took Jost right before we were slotted to pick in 2016