Possible Buyout Candidates and the Potential Cap Ramifications

[Alberta]

Chia works in such a manner that he has things lined up so that is why I feel that buyouts maybe an option. He wouldn't simply buy one of these guys out and then sit on the space unless he feels that he missed out on some deals and he wants that wiggle room possibly to make a run for guys at the deadline and try to get them into the fold here at that point and try to re-sign them.

He could do that if the team budget was theoretically less than the salary cap. Say for example that the team budget is $62 million in salaries, you would need to buy Nikitin out to gain those dollar savings.

 

[Seedling]

I may be alone on this but I think Purcell can have a good year. There is a lot more talent on the team this year and he's done well in that situation. I'd sit on him and see how he does.

NIkitin...not so much. The 1.5 hit next year is concerning though.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

He could do that if the team budget was theoretically less than the salary cap. Say for example that the team budget is $62 million in salaries, you would need to buy Nikitin out to gain those dollar savings.

True, I don't see that being the case in our situation though. I just don't see Chia buying him out unless he has something else planned unless he REALLY sees Nikitin as a waste of a roster spot.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

I'd hold to Purcell and Nikitin for now.

Tràde them at the 2016 trade deadline for 2017 draft picks

Use your extra draft picks at the 2017 trade deadline for upgrades for a playoff run without mortgaging the future.

 

[The Nuge]

I may be alone on this but I think Purcell can have a good year. There is a lot more talent on the team this year and he's done well in that situation. I'd sit on him and see how he does.

NIkitin...not so much. The 1.5 hit next year is concerning though.

I think both COULD have good years, but Purcell is much more likely to.

Purcell stood out to me as the player who was most negatively impacted by Eakins defensively. Under Eakins, he just looked completely lost, and as if he was trying to figure out whether to do what he'd been taught previously, or whether to listen to Eakins, at which point it was already to late. Under Nelson, he was much better. I was his biggest critic for the first half, and even I came around.

Nikitin is an interesting one, because he was a legit top 4 dman for a while with Tyutin, and still shows that on occasion, but it's less than 10 games per year. I'm curious just how much coming into camp out of shape, and dealing with his injuries, affected his performance last year.

 

[Mr Positive]

I may be alone on this but I think Purcell can have a good year. There is a lot more talent on the team this year and he's done well in that situation. I'd sit on him and see how he does.

NIkitin...not so much. The 1.5 hit next year is concerning though.

if we need the cap space this year then it is worth it. But for sure, we have to limit it. Buy out one, but not the other. 3 million of dead cap space is too high.

 

[oStealthKiller*]

I may be alone on this but I think Purcell can have a good year. There is a lot more talent on the team this year and he's done well in that situation. I'd sit on him and see how he does.

NIkitin...not so much. The 1.5 hit next year is concerning though.

Agree, Purcell can play with skill players and has proven he can produce, its a contract year, he has a right shot and I think he can build enough value to return an asset at the tdl.

And as far nikitin is concerned, buy out that hot garbage and pay someone in ufa 3mill for 1/2 years and it'll be like u still got nikitin(1.5+3) but the player in his contract spot is useful. Either way moneys off the books for when McDs ELC is up

 

[Narnia]

if we need the cap space this year then it is worth it. But for sure, we have to limit it. Buy out one, but not the other. 3 million of dead cap space is too high.

Aren't Oilers only allowed 1 buy-out with the extra buy-out window.

 

[Oil Gauge]

I think both COULD have good years, but Purcell is much more likely to.

Purcell stood out to me as the player who was most negatively impacted by Eakins defensively. Under Eakins, he just looked completely lost, and as if he was trying to figure out whether to do what he'd been taught previously, or whether to listen to Eakins, at which point it was already to late. Under Nelson, he was much better. I was his biggest critic for the first half, and even I came around.

Nikitin is an interesting one, because he was a legit top 4 dman for a while with Tyutin, and still shows that on occasion, but it's less than 10 games per year. I'm curious just how much coming into camp out of shape, and dealing with his injuries, affected his performance last year.

Also for Nikitin hopefully being bumped down the depth chart with recent acquisitions will improve his play. If he even gets into the lineup.

 

[Seedling]

I agree that Purcell likely does better than Nikitin. But as TheNuge pointed out, Nikitin does show flashes of his early days once in a while. It's a contract season so maybe plays well. I also agree with Mr. Positive that 3 mill in dead cap is just not an option so, if we do it, it's one or the other.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Aren't Oilers only allowed 1 buy-out with the extra buy-out window.

If that is the case then I buy out Nikitin now and I try to deal Purcell with salary retained at the deadline unless we are in the playoff hunt. Then next offseason I buy out Ference.

 

[Fourier]

You cannot buyout Ference this year. Carrying over $1M in dead cap space into the year McDavid comes off his ELC would be too big a risk. TO me that looks like the year where the Oilers are most vulnerable in terms of the cap.

I would only consider a buyout this year if Chia felt he had anther significant deal in place. Next year the cap could be relatively flat again and there are lots of very good players looking for raises. And like this year a lot of the normal big players will be tight against the cap. It would be prudent to keep some of your powder dry just in case.

Assuming Schultz has the same salary as last year, and that McDavid will earn his full bonus, this is roughly the worst case scenario as of right now.

NHLGuru.net user generated Line-Up

FORWARDS
B. Pouliot ($ 4,000,000) --- R. Nugent-Hopkins ($ 6,000,000) --- J. Eberle ($ 6,000,000)
T. Hall ($ 6,000,000) --- C. McDavid ($ 3,775,000) --- N. Yakupov ($ 2,500,000)
A. Lander ($ 987,500) --- L. Draisaitl ($ 925,000) --- T. Purcell ($ 4,500,000)
M. Hendricks ($ 1,850,000) --- M. Letestu ($ 1,800,000) --- L. Korpikoski ($ 2,500,000)

DEFENCE
A. Sekera ($ 5,500,000) --- J. Schultz ($ 3,675,000)
O. Klefbom ($ 894,167) --- M. Fayne ($ 3,625,000)
G. Reinhart ($ 863,333) --- E. Gryba ($ 1,250,000)

GOAL
B. Scrivens ($ 2,300,000)

Extras
R. Klinkhammer ($ 725,000) --- N. Nikitin ($ 4,500,000) --- C. Talbot ($ 1,450,000) --- A. Ference ($ 3,250,000)
---------------------------------------------------
2015 NHL Cap Limit: $ 71,400,000
23 Player Cap Used: $ 68,870,000
Buried/Retained Cap: + $ 0
Retained Other Team: - $ 0
Injured Reserve: - $ 0
Cap Space Available: $ 2,530,000

I think a trained monkey could get this to $5M without executing a buyout if it was necessary.

 

[shoop]

If that is the case then I buy out Nikitin now and I try to deal Purcell with salary retained at the deadline unless we are in the playoff hunt. Then next offseason I buy out Ference.

Why not buy out Ference now? The difference between Ference and Nikitin on-ice is minimal.

Slightly less cap savings this season, but more next year and the impact of the buyout is spread out over more years.

 

[misfit]

The second buyout window gives Chiarelli options, but I'm not so sure it means he has another move lined up to add another defenseman.

Sekera
Klefbom
Fayne
Gryba
Schultz
Ference
Nikitin
Nurse
Reinhart

That's 9 defensemen with a very real case to be on the opening night lineup. The first 6 names are locks, and Nikitin, while not a complete lock, still eats up over $3.5M of cap space if he's sent to the minors. So that's 6 guaranteed roster spots and 1 that would require something really out of left field to happen for him to not make the team.

I would be really surprised if at least one of Nurse or Reinhart isn't among the team's top 6 defensemen through camp/preseason as well. The use of a buyout on one of the two players whith a realistic shot (Ference and Nikitin) is likely something that will be done to clear the logjam that's currently preventing them from dressing their most competative lineup.

If Chiarelli had another signing lined up, then he can do it well before the signing of Schultz and following buyout of whoever (you're allowed to go over the cap in the offseason). That we have such a deal in place for Ehrhoff/Franson/etc. is nothing more than wishful thinking IMO.

Even though a buyout is likely (and my vote would be for Ference before Nikitin, Purcell, or Scrivens), it's not ideal. The reason we're in no rush to do it is probably because Chiarelli would rather see if he can work a trade for a guy like Nikitin/Scrivens first and is holding onto the buyout as a last resort. If he had another deal in the works and absolutely had to buy someone out first, then he'd be much more quick to do it. Does anyone really think guys like Ehrhoff and Franson are waiting around just for Chiarelli to use his buyout?

 

[misfit]

You cannot buyout Ference this year. Carrying over $1M in dead cap space into the year McDavid comes off his ELC would be too big a risk. TO me that looks like the year where the Oilers are most vulnerable in terms of the cap.

I would only consider a buyout this year if Chia felt he had anther significant deal in place. Next year the cap could be relatively flat again and there are lots of very good players looking for raises. And like this year a lot of the normal big players will be tight against the cap. It would be prudent to keep some of your powder dry just in case.

Assuming Schultz has the same salary as last year, and that McDavid will earn his full bonus, this is roughly the worst case scenario as of right now.

NHLGuru.net user generated Line-Up

FORWARDS
B. Pouliot ($ 4,000,000) --- R. Nugent-Hopkins ($ 6,000,000) --- J. Eberle ($ 6,000,000)
T. Hall ($ 6,000,000) --- C. McDavid ($ 3,775,000) --- N. Yakupov ($ 2,500,000)
A. Lander ($ 987,500) --- L. Draisaitl ($ 925,000) --- T. Purcell ($ 4,500,000)
M. Hendricks ($ 1,850,000) --- M. Letestu ($ 1,800,000) --- L. Korpikoski ($ 2,500,000)

DEFENCE
A. Sekera ($ 5,500,000) --- J. Schultz ($ 3,675,000)
O. Klefbom ($ 894,167) --- M. Fayne ($ 3,625,000)
G. Reinhart ($ 863,333) --- E. Gryba ($ 1,250,000)

GOAL
B. Scrivens ($ 2,300,000)

Extras
R. Klinkhammer ($ 725,000) --- N. Nikitin ($ 4,500,000) --- C. Talbot ($ 1,450,000) --- A. Ference ($ 3,250,000)
---------------------------------------------------
2015 NHL Cap Limit: $ 71,400,000
23 Player Cap Used: $ 68,870,000
Buried/Retained Cap: + $ 0
Retained Other Team: - $ 0
Injured Reserve: - $ 0
Cap Space Available: $ 2,530,000

I think a trained monkey could get this to $5M without executing a buyout if it was necessary.

A trained monkey could easily come up with ~$2.5M immediately without using a buyout, but potentially needing to find ~$1M four years from now is too risky?

 

[Seedling]

You cannot buyout Ference this year. Carrying over $1M in dead cap space into the year McDavid comes off his ELC would be too big a risk. TO me that looks like the year where the Oilers are most vulnerable in terms of the cap.

I would only consider a buyout this year if Chia felt he had anther significant deal in place. Next year the cap could be relatively flat again and there are lots of very good players looking for raises. And like this year a lot of the normal big players will be tight against the cap. It would be prudent to keep some of your powder dry just in case.

Assuming Schultz has the same salary as last year, and that McDavid will earn his full bonus, this is roughly the worst case scenario as of right now.

NHLGuru.net user generated Line-Up

FORWARDS
B. Pouliot ($ 4,000,000) --- R. Nugent-Hopkins ($ 6,000,000) --- J. Eberle ($ 6,000,000)
T. Hall ($ 6,000,000) --- C. McDavid ($ 3,775,000) --- N. Yakupov ($ 2,500,000)
A. Lander ($ 987,500) --- L. Draisaitl ($ 925,000) --- T. Purcell ($ 4,500,000)
M. Hendricks ($ 1,850,000) --- M. Letestu ($ 1,800,000) --- L. Korpikoski ($ 2,500,000)

DEFENCE
A. Sekera ($ 5,500,000) --- J. Schultz ($ 3,675,000)
O. Klefbom ($ 894,167) --- M. Fayne ($ 3,625,000)
G. Reinhart ($ 863,333) --- E. Gryba ($ 1,250,000)

GOAL
B. Scrivens ($ 2,300,000)

Extras
R. Klinkhammer ($ 725,000) --- N. Nikitin ($ 4,500,000) --- C. Talbot ($ 1,450,000) --- A. Ference ($ 3,250,000)
---------------------------------------------------
2015 NHL Cap Limit: $ 71,400,000
23 Player Cap Used: $ 68,870,000
Buried/Retained Cap: + $ 0
Retained Other Team: - $ 0
Injured Reserve: - $ 0
Cap Space Available: $ 2,530,000

I think a trained monkey could get this to $5M without executing a buyout if it was necessary.

Great post.

It's exactly like I see it. Buying out guys this year is just silly. Sure they may not be what you'd like but carrying cap just to buy out guys you can move at the deadline is just not a smart thing to do. Purcell and Nikitin could likely be both moved at the deadline and if not, oh well, they are off the books at year's end.

We can still put them in the minors for a minimal savings but more importantly, to let another player play on the big club who passes them. There is no urgency here.

As for Ference, get used to him being here. He's not getting bought out after the optics of bringing in a guy like him to turn this around. He'll end up retiring as the 7th guy and if he plays on the third pairing he's actually fine like he was under Nelson.

The idea that we need to buy out these guys is just not a good idea. Carrying even a mill or two over the next couple of years could mean us having to trade a good player just because we were not patient and didn't plan literally for one or two years in advance. That's just bad cap management.

Thanks, as always, for breaking it down Fourier.

 

[Bangers]

The way I see it, next season the team has:

Purcell (4,500,000)
Gazdic (800,000)
Klinkhammer (725,000)
Nikitin (4,500,000)
Gryba (1,250,000)
Scrivens (2,300,000)

off the books next season for a total of just over 14 million freed up in cap space.

Assuming Schultz gets the same deal, if Talbot and Klefbom play well, their raises will likely take up 7-8 million of that (and if Talbot stinks it up a la Scrivens, the team will need 4-5 million to sign a new one anyways).

Therefore, the line-up looks like (including Nurse and Draisaitl):

Hall - McDavid - Eberle
Pouliot - RNH - Yakupov
Draisaitl - Lander - ???
Hendricks - Letestu - Korpikoski
???

Klefbom - Sekera
Reinhart - Schultz
Nurse - Fayne
Ference

Talbot
??? (Nilsson maybe?)

That leaves 6-7 million for a 3rd/4th line winger, a 13th forward, and a backup goalie (all of which could come cheap or through internal promotion). I'd rather the team used some of that money now by buying out Nikitin and signing someone like Franson or Ehrhoff than keeping him to save 1 million in dead cap space next season.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I think a trained monkey could get this to $5M without executing a buyout if it was necessary.

Well since I am an untrained monkey where would you cut to get that much off of our roster? Say that Chia wanted to sign Franson right ow for $5 million AAV for 3 years, how do you open up the remaining space for that?

Why not buy out Ference now? The difference between Ference and Nikitin on-ice is minimal.

Slightly less cap savings this season, but more next year and the impact of the buyout is spread out over more years.

Because it lingers into the season after McDavid's and Nurse's ELC's end and 2 years after Nail, Reinhart and Draisaitl probably need raises. Chances are that we will need all of the cap space that we can get at that point.

 

[Kestrel]

A trained monkey could easily come up with ~$2.5M immediately without using a buyout, but potentially needing to find ~$1M four years from now is too risky?

The problem isn't that 1M will be harder to find 4 years from now, it's that 4 years from now, having no dead cap space is much more important. The Oilers will NOT win a Stanley cup this year or next - it's very unlikely that they will make the playoffs this year, and next year is no lock either. Unless the buyout is for the purpose of locking up someone that very likely WILL be making a substantial difference 4 years from now, a buyout this year that you're still paying for 4 years from now is the epitome of foolish and short sighted.

 

[Soundwave]

I only do a buyout of Nikitin if we have confirmation from Ehrhoff's camp that he's willing to sign here. And even then I would first try and find a taker for him at salary retained. Buy out is the final and least desirable option.

Just buying out people "cuz I don't like that player" isn't a smart cap management strategy. I don't like having $1.5-$3 million of my cap that I can't use because of some meaningless move made a year prior.

A Ference buy out this summer is completely stupid. Even if the plan is ultimately to buy him out, do it next year, that way the cap penalty isn't as bad.

 

[shoop]

The problem isn't that 1M will be harder to find 4 years from now, it's that 4 years from now, having no dead cap space is much more important. The Oilers will NOT win a Stanley cup this year or next - it's very unlikely that they will make the playoffs this year, and next year is no lock either. Unless the buyout is for the purpose of locking up someone that very likely WILL be making a substantial difference 4 years from now, a buyout this year that you're still paying for 4 years from now is the epitome of foolish and short sighted.

It would be far better for the team's development to manage to get in the playoffs this year. Getting Ference of the books asap is a step in the right direction.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Having any retained cap when McDavid needs an extension is playing with fire. We could be forced to deal a core piece at that point which would be piss poor management. I want Ference gone as much as the next guy (Eakins Captain) but not at the expense of one of RNH, Eberle, Yak, etc. Stay the course this season and have him as our #7 and then buy him out if we can't sucker another GM, I mean trade him to another team.

 

[Fourier]

Well since I am an untrained monkey where would you cut to get that much off of our roster? Say that Chia wanted to sign Franson right ow for $5 million AAV for 3 years, how do you open up the remaining space for that?

First off I honestly do not want Franson for $5M unless it is a very short deal. But since you asked.

It certainly looks like the intention is that Nilsson will back up Talbot. So Scrivens would be the first piece I move. Right now my target would be Buffalo with Scrivens replacing Chad Johnson.

To Buffalo: Scrivens, 2016 4th
To Edmonton: 2016 3rd

That deal saves you $1.3M.

The next move would be to deal Purcell. He is a guy who can still put up points and there are some offensively starved teams out there. Carolina would be my target as they are short on RW'ers. Retain $2M and ask for a 4th in 2016. Replace him on my roster with Pitlick and you have saved about $1.75M.

Sign a $5M defenseman and send Nikitin to Bakersfiled. You would still have $1.5M left on the cap.

 

[Fourier]

A trained monkey could easily come up with ~$2.5M immediately without using a buyout, but potentially needing to find ~$1M four years from now is too risky?

The Oilers have a lot of fat on the cap right now. That is far less likely to be the case in three years if they keep all the kids. McDavid's raise is possibly the single biggest cap consideration this team will face in the next decade. Even $1.1M in dead cap space could be a problem if you need to fit everyone in. .

 

[guymez]

I'd hold to Purcell and Nikitin for now.

Tràde them at the 2016 trade deadline for 2017 draft picks

Use your extra draft picks at the 2017 trade deadline for upgrades for a playoff run without mortgaging the future.

I think they hang onto Purcell but not Nikitin.

I fully expect him to be bought out this coming week and it wouldn't at all surprise me if they sign Franson with most of the money that was allocated to Nikitin.