Playoffs

[jkutswings]

Apparently "anything" can happen if you make it in. Team planes would have to collide mid-air in order for this garbage team to win the Cup.

And that's the part I don't understand.

Yes, since the inception of the salary cap, there has definitely been a greater frequency of lower seeds going deeper in the playoffs. But a closer look shows some significant details and trends among those lower seeds, which definitely do not bode well for Detroit hoping in the "anybody can win" theory:

The 2005-06 Edmonton Oilers squeaked in as the 8th seed, and made it all the way to Game 7 of the Finals, before losing to the Carolina Hurricanes. But this was a run anchored first and foremost by goaltender Dwayne Roloson (acquired for a 1st round pick at the trade deadline), and, to a lesser extent, by Chris Pronger anchoring the blue line. Really, Roloson stole the show, posting a .927 save percentage, despite facing an average of 34 shots in each of his 18 games played. Had he not gotten injured in Game 1 of the Finals, Edmonton might have completed the Cinderella run.

The 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings won the Cup as an 8th seed. The epitome of, "anything can happen", right? Except that LA wasn't a team with 8th seed talent, but one with significant upheaval, that finally caught fire at the end of the regular season. The team, notably the forwards, had gotten so out of synch, that they fired Terry Murray in December, and eventually brought in Darryl Sutter. Oh, and they traded for Jeff Carter at the deadline, who went on to tie for the team lead in playoff goals, including the Cup clincher. Not to mention that the entire run was on the back of some insane goaltending by Quick.

And didn't we just witness Nashville, the lowest seed of either conference, make it to Game 6 of the Finals? Yep, and once again, it included a major roster move, trading Weber for Subban, and on the back of a long stretch of outstanding goaltending by Rinne.

So if the Wings really want to follow the model of making noise as an 8 seed, they're likely going to need a major roster move to shake things up, and are definitely going to need borderline historic goaltending.

With this GM in charge of trades, and these goalies? Good luck with that.

 

[vladdy16]

Despite your description of them as "dynamic," none of those 3 kids have as of yet shown they can be the next core of elite players needed to be a playoff contender. They're going to have to take some mighty BIG steps to show that and if we want to have any shot of making the playoffs.

They don't need to show they're elite players to prove my point that going into any season, there are going to be players that end up being a much larger factor than preseason expectations would grant.

Problem is for us, the likes of Eichel, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Barkov, Ekblad, Pastranak, Werenski, etc. are all young players with room for growth and in some cases looking to bounce back after a injury-plagued seasons. Any improvements on our end have to be measured relative to what the rest of the division/conference is doing, and I don't see our (current) young talent eclipsing what a number of other teams are building. I think we stand to get worse before we get better.

I don't disagree, but this thread is about the realm of possibility, not odds on projections.

Those are A level prospects you mentioned, we're amassing some solid B's up front. They'll have the opportunity to go head-to-head with those players and that environment will be good for growth, and while the team waits for the D to show up, we'll be playing underdog, and there's always a chance that something will cobble together. Playing a top 1 or 2 seed in the playoffs is not an un-fun or unproductive proposition to me.

So if the Wings really want to follow the model of making noise as an 8 seed, they're likely going to need a major roster move to shake things up, and are definitely going to need borderline historic goaltending.

Yes, but you're describing the probability of winning the cup in a thread about the probability of making the playoffs.

 

[Flowah]

They don't need to show they're elite players to prove my point that going into any season, there are going to be players that end up being a much larger factor than preseason expectations would grant.

We're in a thread titled simply "Playoffs." I assumed that when you pointed to those players and said "a lot can happen over an off-season" that if those players take steps we could make the playoffs.

If all you meant was that some kids might surprise us I don't disagree. But that seems like a pretty useless statement to make.

 

[aar000n]

Mrazek plays well, Detroit makes the playoffs. Mrazek is an abomination, Detroit misses the playoffs again. There's enough on the roster to be a playoff team, and enough in the system to support an acquisition at the deadline if the team is on the bubble.

[mod]

Just throwing that out there.

It really is that simple

 

[Heaton]

It really is that simple

Hah yeah. I'm surprised not many realize how far above his head Howard played last year. Even with Howard's career year the Wings weren't even close to the playoffs even if Howard stayed healthy.

 

[jkutswings]

Hah yeah. I'm surprised not many realize how far above his head Howard played last year. Even with Howard's career year the Wings weren't even close to the playoffs even if Howard stayed healthy.

Totally agree, and here are some numbers:

Howard finished with a 10-11-1 record last year. That's 21 points in 22 games. Which is a 78 point pace, even if he played all 82 games.

Compared to the 79 points that Detroit finished with. Oops.

I don't know why so many people keep fighting the simple truth: THIS IS A BAD TEAM, from top to bottom.

 

[vladdy16]

We're in a thread titled simply "Playoffs." I assumed that when you pointed to those players and said "a lot can happen over an off-season" that if those players take steps we could make the playoffs.

Yes exactly. Then you made the distinction that if the steps don't result in the players becoming 'elite core' players that not making the playoffs would still be a certainty. I never claimed that the 3 examples I used were elite core players, so I have no obligation to that argument.

If all you meant was that some kids might surprise us I don't disagree. But that seems like a pretty useless statement to make.

Sorry that you've misconstrued my point.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Totally agree, and here are some numbers:

Howard finished with a 10-11-1 record last year. That's 21 points in 22 games. Which is a 78 point pace, even if he played all 82 games.

Compared to the 79 points that Detroit finished with. Oops.

I don't know why so many people keep fighting the simple truth: THIS IS A BAD TEAM, from top to bottom.

This can only come from someone who didn't watch the team play. Howard's ridiculously low goal support would have started to even out eventually, in fact the team was scoring better in the second half when he was out.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Didn't mrazek have a better record then Howard or less losses?

 

[Bench]

This can only come from someone who didn't watch the team play. Howard's ridiculously low goal support would have started to even out eventually, in fact the team was scoring better in the second half when he was out.

Here's the difference. He's using numbers that exist. You're using an educated guess to suggest not only would Howard's play continue at the same level, but scoring would also rise.

Maybe Wings scoring went up later in the year because they were also allowing more goals, being forced to press for more. That's just as reasonable an assertion.

You can't take your team's best games of goaltending and segments of highest scoring and mash them together to say that's the actual performance of the team.

 

[Heaton]

This can only come from someone who didn't watch the team play. Howard's ridiculously low goal support would have started to even out eventually, in fact the team was scoring better in the second half when he was out.

Nope, don't think so. So far in the past two years the Wings have scored the lowest goals since the 1970's in 2015-2016, then scored LESS the following year.

Howard's play came back down to earth after he came back anyway, so even with some additional goals we weren't winning much more.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Here's the difference. He's using numbers that exist. You're using an educated guess to suggest not only would Howard's play continue at the same level, but scoring would also rise.

Maybe Wings scoring went up later in the year because they were also allowing more goals, being forced to press for more. That's just as reasonable an assertion.

You can't take your team's best games of goaltending and segments of highest scoring and mash them together to say that's the actual performance of the team.

http://thehockeywriters.com/jimmy-howard-needs-help/

The Red Wings have scored just 18 goals in the 15 games Howard has played, including the one goal against Arizona, which is 1.2 goals per game.

This was in December, not sure what his goal support ended as. But 1.2 goals per game is not sustainable even for a team as bad as ours. Maybe Howard's play wasn't sustainable either, but it's hard to see him falling off to the barely .900 hockey that Mrazek/Coreau gave us.

 

[Bench]

http://thehockeywriters.com/jimmy-howard-needs-help/



This was in December, not sure what his goal support ended as. But 1.2 goals per game is not sustainable even for a team as bad as ours. Maybe Howard's play wasn't sustainable either, but it's hard to see him falling off to the barely .900 hockey that Mrazek/Coreau gave us.

You're still projecting a positive scenario to support your claim. It's not hard to see him falling to .900 at all. His save percentage last year was .906.

 

[aar000n]

Hah yeah. I'm surprised not many realize how far above his head Howard played last year. Even with Howard's career year the Wings weren't even close to the playoffs even if Howard stayed healthy.

That's a big no. With the same team Howards stats were far superior.

 

[jkutswings]

That's a big no. With the same team Howards stats were far superior.

You mean, Howard had better individual stats, but the team around him was so bad, that it didn't matter in terms of wins and losses, since his winning percentage (0.477) wasn't much different than Mrazek's (0.469), and was actually second behind Coreau's (0.542).

I don't think anybody would argue that Coreau is a better goalie than Howard. I'm just saying that the team was unavoidably bad, regardless of who was or would've been in net.

 

[Henkka]

Howard changed his style when Jim Bedard was fired and excelled. Mrazek tried to do the same and really went bad on the uncomfort zone.

I really think this Howard style change could last longer and isn't just a statistical fluke. Howard looked great also at World Championships, where Mrazek looked horrible.

Jimmy plays like Lundqivst now, deeper in the goal. That needs less movement and will fit great for an injury-probable body. He could stay healthier and at same plays better. Huge influence.

Mrazek has always been an aggressive guy who likes to challenge a shooter. When Salajko tried to make him less agressive, the package just blew up. Mrazek lost his confidence and here we are.

***

With 3-year statistics Jimmy is better.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...0162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=savePctg

Howard 91.3 sv%
Mrazek 91.2sv%

Howard 2.48 GAA
Mrazek 2.62 GAA

If Jimmy just had one lucky short period, what a hell has Mrazek been doing these 3 years? Sounds just overhyping, when our bashed starter puts better long-term stats on the table.

If Mrazek can't fit to his new style, and going back to old style doesn't work, I don't have any problem going with Howard. He gives us enough years to develop somebody like Petruzelli or van Pottelberghe ready.

 

[Bench]

Jimmy plays like Lundqivst now, deeper in the goal.

Lundqvist has more game stealing performances in a single season than Jimmy does his entire career. That's not even hyperbole, I actually believe that given some of the season's King has posted. So cool, I'm looking forward to the miracle this goalie coach has performed.

I'm not trying to be rude, but you're putting pretty high expectations on our boy Jimmy. It would be like saying, "Larkin is practicing like Crosby now." That's good, but pump the hype brakes a bit. I'm going to temper my expectations. We've seen Howard play over 400 games in a Wings sweater. I'm not expecting a huge difference at age 33.

 

[One Blurred Eye]

You mean, Howard had better individual stats, but the team around him was so bad, that it didn't matter in terms of wins and losses, since his winning percentage (0.477) wasn't much different than Mrazek's (0.469), and was actually second behind Coreau's (0.542).

I don't think anybody would argue that Coreau is a better goalie than Howard. I'm just saying that the team was unavoidably bad, regardless of who was or would've been in net.

The team seemed to play a lot more conservatively in front of Howard too, for whatever reason. He faced almost two fewer shots per 60 minutes than either Mrazek or Coreau (Mrazek's difference is almost entirely accounted for by even strength shots against, too). The utter lack of goal support Howard received might have been due in part to the team concentrating too much on defense in front of him, thereby inflating his apparent individual performance at the cost of the productivity of the entire offense (such as it was). Looking at the numbers, Detroit started in the O-zone 52% of the time when Mrazek was on the ice, only 49.6% of the time when Jimmy was in net, and their respective Corsi and Fenwick seem to support the idea that the team was significantly less interested in playing offense in front of Howard than they were the other two.

Not to knock Jimmy, he doesn't have complete influence over how the team plays or how the game unfolds in front of him, though it's possible his superior rebound control and ability to stop the play factors into that disparity a bit. But it seems to me he benefited statistically from the team's general focus in trying to keep opponent goals OFF the board rather than trying to put some of their own ON it. Sort of like glass half empty or full, it was as if their strategy with Howard was to try to allow fewer goals than the other team, rather than score more than the other team. If Detroit had aimed to press more offensively when he was in net, it's likely his numbers start looking more in line with his previous season (if not as bad as the other two goalies).

Whether or not that would have lead to more wins is debatable--like you and others, I think the team is too short on talent to make a huge difference, but it might have been enough for Kenny to wring another year out of the streak and at least two more home playoff games to fill the franchise coffers. Their performance in close games in which they scored 4 or more goals indicates to me they probably would have been better off playing a more open and aggressive style overall, in so far as the short term goal of making the playoffs is concerned. But to those clinging to the narrative that Howard is enjoying some sort of amazing renaissance here that'll have us back in contention (if only he stays healthy!), based on all of 26 games, I implore a cold shower. He had a couple of beautiful performances, but his numbers were at least partially a product of a very limited team shifting their meager resources more heavily into the defensive zone hoping to keep games close and score a timely goal that usually never came. They might not be as woefully inept offensively this year, but it's still going to be an uphill battle most nights, and turtling in front their netminder, whoever it is, won't help.

Lundqvist has more game stealing performances in a single season than Jimmy does his entire career. That's not even hyperbole, I actually believe that given some of the season's King has posted. So cool, I'm looking forward to the miracle this goalie coach has performed.

I'm not trying to be rude, but you're putting pretty high expectations on our boy Jimmy. It would be like saying, "Larkin is practicing like Crosby now." That's good, but pump the hype brakes a bit. I'm going to temper my expectations. We've seen Howard play over 400 games in a Wings sweater. I'm not expecting a huge difference at age 33.

And even if he is morphing into Jimmy Lundqvist before our very eyes, I'm sure more than a few Rangers fans would be happy to remind us you need more than a Lundqvist to reasonably expect to win a playoff series or two. But Jimmy is of course welcome to channel King Henrik and pump his trade value--maybe we get lucky this season or next, he stays healthy, plays lights out, and a team with true Cup aspirations loses their starter longer term, inciting a panic trade that might land us a nice piece or two. Oh it's a silly dream to be sure, but it seems it'll be only our dreams to sustain us these next long years of Red Wings fandom, so I might as well indulge in fancy.

 

[Red Stanley]

You're still projecting a positive scenario to support your claim. It's not hard to see him falling to .900 at all. His save percentage last year was .906.

He's allowed to project positive scenarios to support a claim, if someone else is allowed to project negative scenarios to do the same. And, guess what, he's totally right. Our goals per game was 2.5 at the end of the season. That's a factual number, unlike the number you gave, which is pure speculation made to support your claim.

Lundqvist has more game stealing performances in a single season than Jimmy does his entire career. That's not even hyperbole, I actually believe that given some of the season's King has posted. So cool, I'm looking forward to the miracle this goalie coach has performed.

I'm not trying to be rude, but you're putting pretty high expectations on our boy Jimmy. It would be like saying, "Larkin is practicing like Crosby now." That's good, but pump the hype brakes a bit. I'm going to temper my expectations. We've seen Howard play over 400 games in a Wings sweater. I'm not expecting a huge difference at age 33.

Except he compared their styles, not their playing abilities. You quoted him out of context. He's also very much correct - Howard has been good preceding major injuries, so if his new style of less movement keeps him healthier for longer, he's likely to show better numbers. This is all assuming someone doesn't fall on his leg again.

 

[jkutswings]

Except he compared their styles, not their playing abilities. You quoted him out of context. He's also very much correct - Howard has been good preceding major injuries, so if his new style of less movement keeps him healthier for longer, he's likely to show better numbers. This is all assuming someone doesn't fall on his leg again.

He also has an established track record of having an extended stretch of awful play each time he returns from those injuries. And even if he's found a style that's less taxing on his body, he isn't getting any younger.

We can speculate all we like, but the roster in front of him just finished having a downright horrendous year, so I think Howard will have his hands full this season either way.

 

[HIFE]

Many don't put a lot of stock into the main boards but in the "standings prediction" thread I think one person didn't have the Wings placed last in the division!
And the guy who had us in 7th was berated and shouted down!

Folks this team is baaad. As admitted our youngest prospects Larkin, Mantha, AA, Bertuzzi, and Ouellet are closer to B rate players. The cores posted earlier including Pastrnak, Hedman, Drouin, Karlsson, Eichel, Ekblad, Matthews, etc. really hit home how deficient we are compared to the division or the conference. Including Vegas there is a real argument we are the worst in the league...

After the WCH I thought Nielsen could be a strong player for Detroit but he's extremely average. If the "kids" are a year older it may be offset by Daley, Nielsen, Zetter, and Big Rig a year older and a touch slower. Z, Nielsen, Larkin/Helm/Shehan, Glendening down the middle is not competitive in 2018 there's just no way. Sheahan and Helm are trending downward I don't see a way they magically improve themselves. If Abdelkader, Nyquist, and Tatar each have their expected production I still don't think we come close (despite what the standings indicate) to passing Buffalo and Florida.

 

[Bench]

He's allowed to project positive scenarios to support a claim, if someone else is allowed to project negative scenarios to do the same. And, guess what, he's totally right. Our goals per game was 2.5 at the end of the season. That's a factual number, unlike the number you gave, which is pure speculation made to support your claim.

What number did I give exactly? Jimmys save percentage a year ago? My entire point has been to accept the numbers as they sit without padding extra points for what if scenarios. For every positive what if, you can make a negative.

This team stinks and the numbers bear that out. Jimmy Howard playing incredible all year, which is a leap of faith, doesn't change that. I think the sooner the fans get on board with this the sooner ownership will feel pressured to get serious about icing a winner again.

And you know, not just hope for lucky goalie hot streaks to sneak into the playoffs.

 

[Pavels Dog]

This team stinks and the numbers bear that out. Jimmy Howard playing incredible all year, which is a leap of faith, doesn't change that. I think the sooner the fans get on board with this the sooner ownership will feel pressured to get serious about icing a winner again.

There's room in between incredible and what Mrazek/Coreau gave us. It's called NHL level goaltending and Howard has been on that level or above for 90% of his career.

No leap of faith required. He even played well post-injury. The team is bad but all teams look a lot worse with <.900 goaltending.

 

[Henkka]

He's allowed to project positive scenarios to support a claim, if someone else is allowed to project negative scenarios to do the same. And, guess what, he's totally right. Our goals per game was 2.5 at the end of the season. That's a factual number, unlike the number you gave, which is pure speculation made to support your claim.

Except he compared their styles, not their playing abilities. You quoted him out of context. He's also very much correct - Howard has been good preceding major injuries, so if his new style of less movement keeps him healthier for longer, he's likely to show better numbers. This is all assuming someone doesn't fall on his leg again.

More on this article.

https://theathletic.com/69115/2017/06/21/the-on-ice-breakdown-of-mrazek-vs-howard/

What comes to goal support, Mrazek tend to have games where he let the 1st shot go in. That always has a big impact to have higher scoring game. Goal support is just a random factor. Red Wings are equally good or bad on scoring if there would be a wooden plate on the net. Still the same group in front.

 

[jkutswings]

There's room in between incredible and what Mrazek/Coreau gave us. It's called NHL level goaltending and Howard has been on that level or above for 90% of his career.

No leap of faith required. He even played well post-injury. The team is bad but all teams look a lot worse with <.900 goaltending.

Two things:

1) Howard's last 3 seasons include 53, 37, and 26 games played. Not an encouraging trend, especially for a guy over 30.

2) But even if he DOES stay healthy, and DOES provide reasonably good goaltending all season, Jimmy Howard doesn't score goals. Or rack up assists. Or even routinely make brilliant outlet passes to help generate offense.

Even if he becomes vintage Brodeur for 82 games, there's still a bad offense in front of him, and a group of defensemen that do next to nothing to help Detroit score.

So you're either hoping that Detroit wins a boatload of 1-0 and 2-1 games, or you're counting on both a healthy Howard AND a significant improvement from the skaters, especially for generating offense.